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[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, well, I would like to move on, and the person I most suspect is still Glooble. So, VOTE: GLOOBLE

Would you care to re-iterate the case?  I went back and read glooble's (not very frequent posts), and didn't see anything that struck me as out of place, other than a few remarks that seemingly didn't acknowledge the (alleged) RL relationship between him and J.

The gist of the argument against him that I seem to remember was:

- bandwagoned late
- didn't post much in the way of original analysis

[popsofctown]

oh, that.

The adage means, "lynch mafia, not jerks".  scum as in scumbag human.

[Robz888]

Okay, well, I would like to move on, and the person I most suspect is still Glooble. So, VOTE: GLOOBLE

Would you care to re-iterate the case?  I went back and read glooble's (not very frequent posts), and didn't see anything that struck me as out of place, other than a few remarks that seemingly didn't acknowledge the (alleged) RL relationship between him and J.

The gist of the argument against him that I seem to remember was:

- bandwagoned late
- didn't post much in the way of original analysis

How dare you not remember every word of every argument I've made! Fine. Hold on.

(As evidence that this day has dragged on far too long, I submit that I am starting to succumb to the use of humor/sarcasm. Garrr...)

[jotheonah]

Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?

[Captain_Frisk]

Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?

He is playing mafia at a different level than us.

[Robz888]

My case against Glooble:

I think the votes speak for themselves: it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill. We know Axxle1 was innocent; therefore, the people that voted him are automatically a little more suspicious than the others. Among these voters, I certainly thought Theorel was one of the most suspicious. He dropped the hammer. It was pretty bandwagon-ish. And earlier, uh, I had said that his posts were pretty "mafia middleground-ish," and he had that argument with Dsell that made him look very bad. My point is: He is such an obvious choice for a Vigilante to kill. People with the power to kill in the night usually exercise that power whether it's wise or not. You'e a Vigilante, you're going to kill someone, you kill Theorel. Really, it makes a lot of sense. (It makes a little less sense if this was the SK kill, but... my guess is we have a Vigilante. And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?)

As I've said recently, this is a hunch based on the fact that I have a good idea of who the Vigilante is.

The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.

Here is what Glooble says about it:

So, someone killed insomniac. If jo was Mafia, I can't imagine he would do that, since it seems like day one he was trying to set up a bandwagon for him. If jo is SK trying to hit Mafia, he might have gone with his strongest suspicion. Same if he's the vig. But I would say insomniac's death exonerates jo somewhat, unless its a WIFOM situation, with jo trying to use this very argument.

Theorel is to me the more likely scum kill. There was suspicion against him, yes, but he was also developing a reputation as a smart insightful player - but not so much that the doctor would think to protect him. I could see Mafia wanting him out of the way for these reasons, and seeing him as a safe nk (i.e. unlikely to be blocked.)

Gloobe begins defending Jo, who I believe is his mafia co-hort. Jo is not mafia because Insomniac died? It makes little sense. And of course Thoerel is NOT more likely the scum kill, for the reasons I outlined. So it looks to me like Gloobe is either really wrong, or he’s trying to suggest the opposite of the truth, deliberately.

He continues:

Ok, so I'm going to lay down an assumption that might be wrong: I don't think Galzria is scum. His reasons for advocating Axxle1 seemed sound to me when I voted, and they still seem sound now. I'm wary because of how well he fooled everyone in MII, but right now I'm finding Galz to be one of the more trustworthy players.

Getting Galz on your side is of course a terrific mafia move. And one Jo is incapable of making at this point.

So if he is town, I think it's highly possible that the mafia managed to keep their hands clean. Jo would have jumped on that bandwagon whether he was down or mafia because it was taking heat off him. If I was mafia, and I knew that jo was, and he had done such a good job drawing suspicion to himself, I would have bussed him, and I would have tried to make it as convincing as possible. So I think if jo is Mafia, he is likely the only one who voted for Axxle.

In other words, if we kill Jo, and he flips mafia--and Glooble knows he will--Glooble is suggesting that we don’t look at the Axxle voters for more mafia. Gloobe, coincidentally was an Axxle voter.

If jo is town, I think mafia probably helped the Axxle wagon along, but no more than they needed to. I was swayed by Galz's arguments. I think it's highly possible a lot of other townies were. But if I had to pin down one Axxle voter other than jo as suspicious, it would be Grujah. I was suspicious of him day one for voting early without giving a lot of reasoning, and that hasn't gone away.

But if we DO look at Axxle voters other than Jo, he says we should look at Grujah... The easiest person to pin as mafia, by a mile.

For the record, I still think jo is likely town, for the reasons I said day one - he's not stupid. I believe his roleclaim being a mistake, and that he's doing dumb things under the impression that having nothing to hide means you can play completely transparently.

If he is mafia, he's using some super-complex double-bluff strategy where he tries to make himself uber-suspicious, then get cleared so that everyone forgets about him. I find this possible, but unlikely.

I don’t like this for the record at all. He’s really trying to have it every which way in this post. Glooble doesn’t think Jo is mafia. But if we kill him and he is mafia, we shouldn’t suspect the other Axxle voters. And if we do suspect the other Axxle voters, we should suspect Grujah. All underlined by faulty logic about which nightkill was the scum kill.

Then, he tries to draw suspicion on SFS--the only living person in this game that we can be sure, beyond any reasonable doubt, is town.

On another note, I'm pretty suspicious of SFS right now. This cop claim seems like a really good way to draw attention away from one or even two mafiosos, while offering the town almost no helpful information. It's also totally full of holes:
1. If SFS really is an investigative role, why investigate Tables of all people? Better suspects included: jo, who everyone wants to lynch; pops, the subject of the first bandwagon, who's alignment would have been so much more instructive to know (and who has consistantly defended SFS for almost no reason I should add), Galz, who led the bandwagon on a VT, theorel, who hammered it, Grujah, Me for that matter. I could go on, I just think Tables was a really random choice.
2. Why share this information immediately? This makes no sense to me. There was no discussion going about Tables, virtually no chance of him being lynched, and he wasn't even involved in the Axxle lynch. Why did the town need to know immediately that he was town? I don't understand SFS's reasoning here at all and it's bugging me.

But if SFS is mafia, he just made a lot of people trust both him and, potentially, Tables. A bold play, yes, given the high risk of a counterclaim (which we haven't had yet) but definitely worth it if people buy it. SFS, I could use a stronger defense on why you chose to use your night action in such a manner. Right now its looking very scummy to me.

Look, I understand in theory why SFS’s move could make sense for scum. But that’s not the case. SFS is clearly exactly what he said, didn’t think it out entirely, maybe.... but there’s no reason to disbelieve this claim. Pops is absolutely right that SFS is “obvtown.” Anyone who says otherwise needs to think about it very carefully.

To summarize:

Yes, everything Gloobe said was incorrect, weird accusals, odd defenses of jo, direction away from Axxle voters, etc. Either Gloobe is (forgive me) playing an all-time terrible game as town, or he is playing a somewhat un-subtle game as mafia. Look, he’s making mistakes either way. But I have a much easier time believing that he’s a mafia member who is doing things that make sense from a mafia perspective (un-subtle and suspicious looking though they are), than he is an incompetent townie.

[Galzria]

Srsly where is Galzria? Is he ok?

Working out the post now with modifications to include new posts since my absence. Intro explains where I was, but in short (so I can get back to setting everything straight), work ran late Friday, I had to rush to the airport and spent the weekend with my Father, who lives out of service area. My girlfriend sent the message to Volt on my behalf yesterday. I'm back now, and will be home today and most of tomorrow, then back to work (and regularly scheduled programming).

[Robz888]

I've never been so happy to see my misleading, suspicious, mislynching pseudo-ally who likes to bait me as Serial Killer in a false argument that distracts everyone from my real argument.

Welcome back, you maniac.

[Captain_Frisk]

... long post snipped ....

And the twins thing doesn't throw you off?  It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.

[Robz888]

... long post snipped ....

And the twins thing doesn't throw you off?  It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.

It did throw me off. Now I think they are probably not BOTH mafia, and that explains why they seemed so in cahoots. But individually they are still the most suspicious people to me. And Glooble, for the given reasons, edges out Jo in me estimation.

[Captain_Frisk]

... long post snipped ....

And the twins thing doesn't throw you off?  It seems like poor sportsmanship to use your real life twinnedness to get your mafia co-hort off the hook.

It did throw me off. Now I think they are probably not BOTH mafia, and that explains why they seemed so in cahoots. But individually they are still the most suspicious people to me. And Glooble, for the given reasons, edges out Jo in me estimation.

If 1 of them had to be mafia, I would take J.  If G was Mafia and J wasn't, there would be no reason for G to come to J's rescue if J was town... because he'd be happy to let him die.  If both G and J are mafia, then lynching J works just as well.

[Galzria]

I apologize to all for my absence. I said the other night that I would post when I got home after work, but unfortunately I was held late waiting for a Press Release, and when I got home I had to grab my stuff and rush off to the airport (spent Saturday/Sunday/Monday with Father). He doesn't have a strong enough reception to access the internet from my phone at his house, nor does he use a computer for internet (My god... I don't know how he lives. It was KILLING me to be in a black-whole for 3 days!). The message that was sent to Volt yesterday was sent by my Girlfriend on my behalf. She's been more or less keeping me up to date on the goings on here (though I cannot convince her to play!  ). I didn't arrive home until about 3:15 am this morning and went straight to bed. However, I'll be home all of today, and much of tomorrow, so I'll be around some more.

Now, on to the good stuff!

My god are you guys helpless without me! I've never seen so much posting that basically reads "Just waiting... can't do anything else..." - Seriously. I don't know how said it, but unless Pops and I are BOTH Mafia (We're not. I would have to be Mafia for that to be true) there are at LEAST 2 other Mafia out there. I'm appreciative of Robz coming back and trying to get conversation started again on other fronts. But for now, I'm going to stay focused on Pops, because I do think he is the most likely Mafia player in our midst. I've posted my argument in here, but before I post it I'm going through and editing / rearranging to include newer things since my absence, and to make it a little more coherent.

Before I begin, what does a Mafia post look like? What sort of "accusations" do they make to further their case and push a wagon?

From M-II, D1, Robz (Mafia) in response to Morgrim7 (Town):

That said, I claim to be a villager.

Surely you can muster a better defense than "I claim to be a villager." You meant to say, "I am a villager."

From M-IV, D1, Pops (?) in response to Axxle1 (Town):

"If I flip town" can be simplified to "if I flip" or "if I'm lynched", when the person speaking is town.  Sometimes these little Freudian things turn out well, sometimes they don't.  But  like the bonus points here.

From M-IV, D2, Pops (?) in response to Axxle2 (?):

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.

I try to contribute and I'm scum.  People can be doing other things than just waiting for Galz to post.

Scum try to contribute.  Townies contribute.

To begin with, there are a few key crimes I would like to center in on Pops for:

#1: Stop right there! That's a foul!:

Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell.  So.

Wait! Before I continue, I would like to point out that Pops rarely EVER quotes. His posts are VERY hard to read out of the context of the conversation happening around them. This is a blunting tactic used to make it harder to go back and make a strong case against him, because you can't always tell to whom he was referring, or why. So I'll do my best here to provide some context (as best I'm able), so that you don't get lost.

The above quote speaks for itself however. It's something he loves to claim others are doing (he used it as the backbone to his case on Axxle), but indeed is something Pops himself has subtly (at times) tried to do himself. Here's a sampling of Pops telling everybody else how to play. Again, most without context (as he was sure not to provide any):

SFS is such a cute poster.  Why did the public at large need to know how many shots you had, SFS?  Did you think about it? Sigh.

pairings without flips are dumb.

Rolefishing behavior is incredibly anti-town, even if it rarely is a useful scumtell.

Everyone stop it.

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

Galzria, the issue with town gambits is that you're lying.  You either lied then or are lying now, because you didn't believe in your Robz case.  That triggers a broad range of psychological effects that read scummily.  So you're left with no one to blame but yourself if you get lynched - you've essentially sent yourself a scum pm instead of a town one and then played the game.

Don't do it again.

Lynch mafia, not scum :/

lynch mafia not scum.

I just don't see Joth being scum.  If Glooble is town he probably knows his twin and joth is town too.  If glooble is scum with joth I doubt he claims twinnage because it could come out wrong.  Glooble isn't a terrible lynch but his posting has improved quite a bit today.  I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.

@frisk - lynch mafia, not scum.

I finish with those two last because it's something that's been said in almost every Mafia thread to date. It's good play, right? I mean, who cares about how scummy somebody plays, as long as we lynch Mafia, not Scum. The problem is, the way Pops uses this is as a defense. He's basically saying "Yes, I'm playing like scum. Scummy scum. Scummiest scum. But it's ok, because as long as you don't lynch me, we'll be good!"

"Lynch Mafia, Not Scum" is not a defense. It's an excuse. It's an excuse to play any way you wish, and not have to justify it. There is VERY little Scummier than that. Furthermore, when called out on his Referee behavior, and the use of his "little black book" to call foul or get tells on everybody, he came up with this beauty of a hedge:

The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds.

When it's pointed out that the above quote is absolutely NOTHING but hedge, Pops goes for broke:

Idk what hedging is you folk will have to explain it to me.  I've never heard of it before so I can't own or disown the behavior.

Anybody here who believes this deserves to lose this game. Seriously. "Mr. Mafia" himself claiming to have never heard of "hedging your bets"... I just... I don't even... wow. I spent like, 5 minutes laughing my ass off over this. Anyway, back on point. An example:

Q: "Hey Pops, how come your little black book gave you such strong Mafia tells on Townie Axxle1?"

A: "The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds."

Q: "Hey Pops, how come your little black book gave you such strong Mafia tells on Townie Galzria?"

A: "The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds."

Q: "Hey Pops, how come..."

A: "The tells don't always work.  A fullhouse doesn't always win.  Just makes good odds."

Moving on.

#2: Why won't this vote STICK!?!?:

Robz likes to claim that my votes are all over the place. It's true, I vote more than he does. But I always provide a reason for my votes. I always make a case. For example, D1 I voted for Axxle, Jotheonah, Pops, and then Axxle again. D2, I voted for Jotheonah, and Robz. In all, I've voted for 4 people - 3 of which were sincere (Not counting troll votes during trolling times... ah, those were happy times). I agree with Robz that excessive voting is bad. I'm not QUITE as stringent as he is, but I do try to restrain myself. Pops on the other hand...:

If anyone places an upvote they shouldn't remove it (it's like editting a post).

I upvoted Green Opal because I find woodwork lurkers amusing, so there's your explanation.


No-lynching is only a good strategy if there is some reason to believe that dramatically more information will be available on later days.  In a closed setup, there's no reason to believe that. 

Vote: jotheonah

Humor is, actually antitown.  It's distracting and it's not analysis.  It's not necessarily scummy though, it often denotes a certain levity a townie can feel that a nervous mafiate will not.

I'm voting jotheonah because he seems to be letting his opportunity to make a joke distract him from doing any scumhunting.  Also, this particular joke, calling oneself scum, has a delicious irony as scum but matching value as town and thus is slightly more likely to be made by scum.

Someone had a particularly hideous IIoA post, I think it was joth but I'm lazy and not sure.

Power roles are supposed to claim when they are at L-1, a nonvoting player has indicated willingness to hammer, and no one has taken the chance to back down.  Then the player claims a power role or VT.

unvote, vote Insomniac

SFS is a professional poker player. Since he is A) town and B) good at reading people we should all just copy him.

unvote, vote Robz

vote: glooble for now.

I very much disagree with his opinion of Tables.  Though maybe that means I should vote Tables.

Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.

This vote is serious. 

Vote: Axxle

His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.

(Bolded last sentence is my own emphasis, to tie into my first point, and because of the pure delicious irony of it)

Vote Captain Frisk

He's also one of my weaker townreads.  PoE.

Vote: Galzria

SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells.  In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion.  In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.

Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.

Whew. 7 people voted for so far, 2 of which are confirmed town (Insomniac and Axxle1). I havn't even listed the posts of his made throughout the day (and there are a number) that read as such:

Axxle 2 is one of the scummiest players itt.

Eventually, one of those votes will stick. (One did D1 at least). Pops is fishing for bandwagons. He doesn't care who gets lynched, he just wants to see SOMEBODY get lynched. You know who would make a *great* candidate? Galzria. Here's the problem. He knows I'm town. He also knows that my setting up the 1v1 with him means that if I get lynched he IS the most likely target D3. I mean honestly, can you give me a SINGLE good reason he wouldn't want to vote me right now? My gambit arguable makes me the most suspicious for "lying", right? He was certainly quick to point it out and pound away at that drum... except now, well, he has some magic case against Axxle2 that makes HIM more suspicious than me!

I just don't see Joth being scum.  If Glooble is town he probably knows his twin and joth is town too.  If glooble is scum with joth I doubt he claims twinnage because it could come out wrong.  Glooble isn't a terrible lynch but his posting has improved quite a bit today.  I'd rather lynch Axxle2 or Galz.

Frisk - Yessir, that's a first choice and a second choice. 

Pops would rather not lynch me today now because he KNOWS I'll come up town, and he knows exactly how that'll make him look. He'll claim this next sentence is survivalist (a Mafia tell in his little black book, btw), but I don't MIND being lynched today. When I played for the gambit it was with the thought that if my death brings down a Mafia, that's a damn good trade off. If I can get that Mafia lynched WITHOUT my death, well hell - of course that's better. But if push comes to shove, I don't mind being lynched to vindicate myself and hang the lamp of doom over Pops.

#3: Accountability:

This is arguably the least important of the 3 points, but if you willfully play to add little value to the game, you deserve to get lynched. This is a behavior thing, and unlike above, is a "I don't like the way they've played" argument more than anything else. He has admitted to being capable of playing better. Saying more. Adding more discussion to the conversation. Every time he's questioned about it though, he just turns the other way. "I didn't want the lurkers to get bogged down, so I've only been posting 1 liners"

Playing sub-optimally never helps the town. Ever. Holding back, or being obscure for no reason, causing suspicion and stirring the pot just to "see what happens" without giving a reason or following up with your radical claims do nothing useful. All it does is make it harder for the town to actually get decent reads. If this is town play, it's not town play I want in my town. If it's Mafia play, well then it's excusable - but still not wanted in my town.

In all, the evidence I believe adds up to Pops being Mafia (no sir, not scum, but Mafia). I'm willing to risk my neck to prove it, but I have no reservations in casting my Vote: Popsofctown at this time.

[Robz888]

@Frisk: I can't overlook Glooble being very wrong in what he said about Theorel (that he was the mafia kill--he probably wasn't), and about SFS (that he was suspicious, when he is certainly town.)

@Galzria: This is the case against Pops that I expected. Look, Pops has been to off-putting and irritating to be mafia. I can't imagine him purposefully wanting to bring all this negative attention on himself in such an obvious way. I agree that he's weird and so far unhelpful. If this were the first round, I would understand lynching him on basis of "Who else? He is ugh and it could just be obvious, bad mafia play." But we really need to get someone good here. And I'm pretty sure Pops will flip town, telling us absolutely nothing except that his posts got him into unnecessary trouble, just like Axxle1 (and Morgrim in MII, and theory and TINAS in MI).

[Galzria]

I should note that there is SO much more left on the cutting board. But when scum is scummy, it's just hard to choose which quotes to use. I focused *mostly* on D2, although he was arguably at his most scummy in D1. It's certainly when he had most of the town riled up over his play. It's because of that though that I decided to cut much of D1 activity out. If you want even more post from me that includes his D1 scumminess, I can provide it. I just didn't feel it was necessary at this point.

[Robz888]

No, I see all his scumminess, but like... why would he do this, as mafia? Why would he try to be the most irritating, acerbic, incomprehensible, belligerent person? Surely he should have noticed that jerk play gets you lynched immediately, or at least puts you on the radar for being lynched Day 1, in all previous mafia games.

So, why would he do this? I can much better see it as a strategy designed to ferret out mafia depending on how they respond to his weirdness. I don't see how, but that's a better explanation in my view than him being mafia.

[Captain_Frisk]

@Frisk: I can't overlook Glooble being very wrong in what he said about Theorel (that he was the mafia kill--he probably wasn't), and about SFS (that he was suspicious, when he is certainly town.)

Hanlon's razor.

[Captain_Frisk]

No, I see all his scumminess, but like... why would he do this, as mafia? Why would he try to be the most irritating, acerbic, incomprehensible, belligerent person? Surely he should have noticed that jerk play gets you lynched immediately, or at least puts you on the radar for being lynched Day 1, in all previous mafia games.

So, why would he do this? I can much better see it as a strategy designed to ferret out mafia depending on how they respond to his weirdness. I don't see how, but that's a better explanation in my view than him being mafia.

Has O ever died in any of these games?

[Robz888]

O and Pops are extremely different. They both have short posts, but O clearly explains himself. He's not an irritant, at all, not the way Pops is.

[Galzria]

O and Pops are extremely different. They both have short posts, but O clearly explains himself. He's not an irritant, at all, not the way Pops is.

O has been in the past... but I think that was more MY reaction to his playstyle than O himself. Here, (as I've indicated) O has given me one of the strongest town reads.

[Robz888]

My question to Pops would be this: Do you regret how you've played, being that it's distracting from making cases against real mafia? I suppose you don't.

[jotheonah]

I'm just gonna sheep Galz.  It can't make me any more suspicious.

Vote: popsofctown

Dynamite of a post, man. Although, not exactly bristling with new information. It's all the same stuff that we all found scummy about pops from the get-go.  Only, I hadn't realized just how much his vote was jumping around.

[jotheonah]

The thing is ... I'm such an easy target. And since I became an easy target, pops hasn't touched me. He's all but insisted I'm town. What is up with that if he's scum?

[jotheonah]

Unvote until I get an answer on that or until pops responds (though I have a hard time imagining what could convince me)

[Robz888]

Jo, I've just about had it with you getting on every single bandwagon that doesn't have your name at the top....

[jotheonah]

Anway, on another topic, what's this bullshit about Grujah being a "mislynch waiting to happen"? That's not an argument.  Grujah is a lurker who votes opportunistically. And we have, as of today, a super weirdly quiet town.  Manipulative mafia tend to dominate discussions, so if our mafia are lurkers, I would expect a weirdly quiet town. So I don't find Grujah that hard to believe as a mafia, frankly. And the town loses very little by lynching him.