Okay, responses to criticism of my case and of me. First, O:
1) You say Glooble defends Jo because Jo is a fellow mafia, but defends Galzria out of desire for an ally. This seems inconsistent and I don't really see why/how you came to two very different conclusions for the same action. It seems like a passive, Scummy defense of Galzria more than anything else.
You’re right. As I said before, even I succumb to acquitting Galzria for no reason, like everybody else. Don’t know why. It clearly does me no favors. I was assuming he was innocent, which was why I didn’t see Glooble defending him as weird. But, yeah, I’ll try to set that aside. He could be a mafia instead of Jo. But I think the case against Glooble and Jo is stronger. Maybe I’ll re-think that now that Galzria has come strongly after me.
2) You said it's possible Glooble is just the worst-town of all time. No, in all likelihoood SFS would be if both were town.
3) You called SFS "100% confirmed town". He is like 90% confirmed town. Obviously it would be inanely stupid to lynch him right now but it's a big overreach to say for certainty that he's town.
Hell, I'll go ahead and say it: We all know SFS is lying. The question is only in which direction (Its very very likely town). (OMG HE GAVE ADVICE AN IDIOT MAFIA WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO DECIPHER WITHOUT HIS HELP HE MUST BE MAFIA): No, if we had an idiot mafia our choices would be a lot easier atm.
I am like 95% sure that SFS is town. That’s pretty much more certain than I have ever been of anyone in any mafia game so far.
4) The rest of your case seems to lie upon the fact that Glooble has said to not look inside the Axxle voters. This annoys me too, after all, I *am* a non-axxle voter. I think I said Theorel hedged his vote when he did the exact same thing. But from the perspective of a townie who voted for Axxle, it makes a bit more sense: He was a town that got lured into it, it follows that others will?
That being said, I agree that his play would have been pretty damn terrible if he is town. Just not as bad as SFS's.
Seems to me that everything Glooble said was wrong. Making him incompetent, or mafia.
Now, to Galzria:
The following will look at Robz's opening paragraphs from the perspective that Robz is a Serial Killer:
As everybody knows, I was against killing Axxle yesterday. (I was right about that.) I was for killing Jo. (I may yet be right about that.) But for now, Jo is only my second-most-likely mafia suspect.
My top suspect is Glooble, and here is my explanation. Large pieces of this argument were constructed by other people, but I just looked at really, really carefully in the last hour or so, and found it convincing.
Ok, first off in his opening paragraph he once more uses the "I was right about Axxle1" to try to garner trust. This is especially important moving forward.
What's worth noting (to me), is that while he WAS right about Axxle1, he wasn't the only person who was - and he didn't exactly agree D1 on with those other people about who WAS a better choice. This is relevant because I don't understand why Robz should suddenly be seen as "the voice of Mr. Right", and I don't think using that argument should add any weight to future cases.
Essentially, I would like to steal a little bit of your thunder, Galzria. You are a serial mislyncher, and you always seem to get your way. I want the town to listen to someone else for a change. Someone with a better track record than you. And I do think I am on to something. So yes, I want to be seen as the voice of Mr. Right. Absolutely.
Still, as a Serial
Let's start at the top with his bold assertion that Insomniac was the Mafia kill, and Theorel the Vigilante kill.
He doesn't just offer it as opinion, he states it as near fact:
"it is pretty clear that Theorel was a vigilante kill, or possibly a Serial Killer kill, and Insomniac was the mafia kill."
Building off his "credibility" in the first two paragraphs, he doesn't want us to question his assertions here, so doesn't give us the option to.
Well of course it’s an opinion, but I think it’s a correct one. Just as me saying “SFS is town” is an opinion, but I would bet that it’s the correct one. I would also bet on Insomniac as the mafia kill and Theorel as the Vig kill.
I had a hard time swallowing that; not the idea itself, but how SURE Robz was, and how badly he wants everyone to believe it (him).
See, the thing is, convincing people that there is a Vigilante on the loose is a great cover for a Serial Killer. They both (to a degree) want the same thing: To kill at night, ideally Mafia. This is especially true is Town is being lynched during the day.
Every time there is a 2nd NK, Robz can refer back to this post. If the NK hits Mafia, he can cheer the "unknown Vigilante" for a good read. If the NK hits Town, he can lament the "unknown Vilgilante's" reckless play.
And that's just it. His post neither proves nor disproves the existence of either SK or Vigilante, but is designed to sheppard us along into following his beliefs so that he can hide behind the actions of an "unknown Vigilante".
Fine, I’ll just say it: I believe there is a Vigilante who killed Theorel.
I also think I know who it is. I am picking up on some tells that possibly other people didn’t notice, but yeah. So that’s why I think it. If the person I have in my head is a Vigilante, the Theorel kill makes a lot of sense. I obviously don’t want to out the person, and I could be wrong. So anyway, that’s why I am so sure.
Moving onto his next paragraph:
The mafia probably don't want to kill Theorel, because it narrows the pool of living, possibly guilty Axxle voters, and in all likelihood some of the mafia are in there. Insomniac, on the other hand, has a track record of catching mafia on Day 2--he got me in MII (which, by the way, is something Jo or Galz might be most likely to remember)--did not vote for the mislynch, and I said he was fundamentally un-suspicious, and I think I have at least some sway here. So it makes good sense to kill him, for the mafia.
Now let's look at his assertions for N1 kills.
Insomniac, as Robz points out, had a track record of reading Mafia tells D2. This is true. Robz's conclusion from that is misleading however. He would like to draw the line between "Someone good at reading Mafia" and "Good Mafia night target". He uses myself and Jotheonah to leverage his point, noting that we are likely to have cause to remember Insomniacs successful Mafia hunting. What Robz omits, is himself.
This was a very tactful decision by Robz, because the scum reads Insomniac got were against HIM, not anybody else. If any of us had a mind to kill Insomniac on the basis of Meta-Gaming then, it would make the most sense to be Robz. The line of connection wasn't that Insomniac could read Mafia, it was that Insomniac could read Robz.
Um, I would not kill Insomniac if I were mafia or SK. I am a better debater! I beat him fair and sqaure in M2! Really, I wouldn’t consider him a threat to me.
So all that's left is Theorel. Why would the Mafia chose to kill him? Was it because he was on to them? Was it to cast suspicion on the people he suspected? WIFOM.
I don't know why. That's not to say there aren't good reasons: there are. I just don't know which applies best. Multiple people now have suggested multiple reasons, and rehashing then won't get me anywhere.
What I believe, however, is that Robz is the Serial Killer. I believe his case for Glooble is a strong one, and argued from a position of wanting to kill Mafia. I don't know that he's RIGHT, but I'm inclined to believe his case is genuine.
I said in my first response that something about his post felt like an M-II argument, and I feel decent about my read. 100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.
You don’t know why Theorel was killed, but I do. He was killed by the Vigilante. I think I know who the Vigilante is, and why he killed Theorel. So there.
Emphatically, I am NOT the Serial Killer.
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Topic: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (GAME OVER - MAFIA WINS!) (Read 335015 times)