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[Captain_Frisk]

On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?

I think if we can figure out if we have a witch or a woodcutter/militia it would be great, but I don't think we have enough info on that.  Pops brought up a good point that witch would want to kill mafia, at least to start so that doesn't seem possible.  I don't think it matters if we determine who's a mafia or wwm kill.

Well - sleeping didn't really clarify anything, and it doesn't look like there have been any amazing Day 2 opening claims.  (Tinas v. Ozle is what converted me from "Get this mafia off my damn lawn" into "Holy crap I want to play")

I think I agree with Pops (and someone else above) that Insomniac is the likely scum kill.  My recollection is that both of them were reasonably quiet until later in the thread, and we're probably going to start looking at "Why did we lynch vanilla town" first, so might as well leave those suspects alive.

So, I'm trying to figure out why I voted for Axxle1.  Was I pushed and prodded?  Galz (vote #1) started stuff up @ 760 and asked us to look at it a few times until it started to get some steam with J and I.

J is still J. (vote #2)  He had no influence on my vote.

I voted #3, apparently with a bad read, but I became more confident as the bandwagon got stuck, and there was more resistance vs. how quickly the J bandwagon took off.

I'm curious to see how SFS (#4) feels about his triple mafia theory now.

pops (#5) is a strange bird.  He's been very deliberate re: what he's willing share regarding his though processes with the group.

I didn't like the Glooble / Grujah 6/7 rapid fire bandwagon after they were called out for being quiet.

theorel (#8) is dead.

All right - so I've laid it all out, and I still don't know what I think.  My gut says to go back to looking at J, or Galz - who managed to defend J by getting someone else lynched.  My gut also told me to stick with Axxle too, so maybe I should just go get some breakfast instead.

[popsofctown]

I would not have been happy with a day 1 Insomniac lynch at any point.  I voted him for pressure and investigation, but I'm not Robz and that doesn't mean I'd see him hammered.  I thought he was scummier than even chances but not anywhere near the threshhold for a lynch.


@Glooble: Why was Axxle1 scummy?

@Grujah: Who is scum?

@myself: Who is the dadgum mafia?

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

This is a strange game.  And by that, I don't mean this iteration of it, I mean the game itself.  (Yeah, that's fluff).

Well, clearly I was wrong about Axxle, and therefore likely about CF.  I never got any substantial quiet time this weekend to run though the posts of my next party of interest (not Jo) to examine closely.  More on that in a later post if I can work it up.

My only other major thought over the weekend was: What is up with Tables?  He has posted very little, and in the last 10 (roughly) posts he always refers to why he won't be around much.  He also is on very few peoples lists, so if its a ploy, its working.  Taking the advice in Grujah's post at #1113, and figuring my eccentricities meant I was short-lived in this game, I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT.  Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).

I don't know how much I'll be able to read or post for the next 12 hours or so.  I'll get caught up when I can.

[Captain_Frisk]

I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT.  Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).

I'm not really sure how to read this... It doesn't seem to add a bunch of information, except reducing the reducing the fear of Mafia of being investigated (especially since they are the only ones besides yourself who know whether you are telling the true)

[Captain_Frisk]

So, why aren't Galz/C_F dead yet? I expected them dieing? Maybe Mobs want them starting similar, wrong lynches? 

I find this very scummy.  Galz and I pushed for a lynch on an innocent townie, may he rest in peace.  (Man it's weird to have the dude you lynched in the game with you)

We are already going to look suspicious.  Why would mafia kill us when the town can do it for them? 

Instead, you look to be slyly trying to rile up the rest of the town into lynching us.

[popsofctown]

SFS, that was poor play on your part imo.  It's better to delay the cop inno until the target is in trouble, otherwise, you just change which player gets nightkilled and don't help town process-of-eliminate all that much.

There's also breadcrumbing, which is surprisingly easy to manage and can reveal your investigation uponst your death.

Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.

Doc on SFS tonight.

I would also like to hear why Grujah expected C_F and Galzria to get  shot.

[Voltgloss]

Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.

Yes, if a Witch chooses investigation immunity, they are reported as "Town" to Spy/Adventurer investigations.  Same for Mafia Chancellors (Godfathers).  See the sample role PMs in the intro post.

[Robz888]

Hello, everybody. I am here now. Substance in a minute. For now:

This is a strange game.  And by that, I don't mean this iteration of it, I mean the game itself.  (Yeah, that's fluff).

Well, clearly I was wrong about Axxle, and therefore likely about CF.  I never got any substantial quiet time this weekend to run though the posts of my next party of interest (not Jo) to examine closely.  More on that in a later post if I can work it up.

My only other major thought over the weekend was: What is up with Tables?  He has posted very little, and in the last 10 (roughly) posts he always refers to why he won't be around much.  He also is on very few peoples lists, so if its a ploy, its working.  Taking the advice in Grujah's post at #1113, and figuring my eccentricities meant I was short-lived in this game, I USED MY ONE-SHOT COP INVESTIGATION ON TABLES LAST NIGHT.  Tables is either town, or he is the Mafia Godfather (which would return TOWN), or he is the serial killer (if we have one) AND chose the "Investigation Immune" protection option (which would return town).

I don't know how much I'll be able to read or post for the next 12 hours or so.  I'll get caught up when I can.

SFS, what exactly did the mod tell you? Don't quote it, that's illegal. But did the mod say "No role?" or "Vanilla Townie" or "No info" or what? No role and no info are different.

[Robz888]

Did the mod specifically say that investigation immune witches come up innocent? Some implementations make it appear that you were roleblocked.

Yes, if a Witch chooses investigation immunity, they are reported as "Town" to Spy/Adventurer investigations.  Same for Mafia Chancellors (Godfathers).  See the sample role PMs in the intro post.

Oh, okay. Then it doesn't matter. And we haven't learned much.

[Grujah]

Well, they seemed to be most active scum-hunters to me (theo was, too, but people usually found him scummy) so that's why I expected their deaths.

Pops's above post seems very townie to me. Either that or he knows what we know that he is experienced so he has to show that he "plays smart" 

@Robz - he is factioncop not rolecop.

[Glooble]

@Glooble: Why was Axxle1 scummy?

Primary reason after I thought about it for a while was the articles he linked at the beginning of the game. It felt like a ploy to get the new players on his side while also influencing their playstyle and making them easier to manipulated. Added to his bandwagonning on J and pops, it gave me enough of a scum read to eventually be comfortable voting for him, after some deliberation. Obv. with the new information that he was VT, I'm starting to see that my imagination may have been running away with me a bit. But I was far from the only one to reach the wrong conclusion.

@C.F. I wouldn't call my vote rapid-fire. I took the time to consider what seemed to be the only two viable options, and chose the one who seemed more likely to be scum.

[Glooble]

So, someone killed insomniac. If jo was Mafia, I can't imagine he would do that, since it seems like day one he was trying to set up a bandwagon for him. If jo is SK trying to hit Mafia, he might have gone with his strongest suspicion. Same if he's the vig. But I would say insomniac's death exonerates jo somewhat, unless its a WIFOM situation, with jo trying to use this very argument.

Theorel is to me the more likely scum kill. There was suspicion against him, yes, but he was also developing a reputation as a smart insightful player - but not so much that the doctor would think to protect him. I could see Mafia wanting him out of the way for these reasons, and seeing him as a safe nk (i.e. unlikely to be blocked.)

If this is the case, it somewhat exonerates those people with cases against theorel can't rememb er who besides O right now, and Grujah, I think?) but not really because 1. theorel could have been the SK/vig kill and 2.the aforementioned WIFOM scenario.

[Glooble]

Oh, and SFS - I feel like that info helps the mafia more than it helps us. It tells you that either 1. you're lying about the one shot and you're the cop or 2. you have no power role anymore and shouldn't be bothered with. How likely does everyone think it is that we have both a one-shot cop and a regular cop?

[Robz888]

Okay, so the interesting thing is, most of the people who didn't vote for Axxle are dead.

Vote Count 1-16

popsofctown (1) - Insomniac
jotheonah (4) - Green Opal, Robz888, Dsell, Axxle
Axxle {8} - Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Glooble, Grujah, theorel
theorel (1) - O

Not Voting {1} - Tables

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Insomniac is dead, and he was a good guy. Same with Axxle1. The only living non-Axxle1 voters are:

Me
Tables
Dsell
O
Green Opal/Axxle2

So my prediction is this: At least some of the mafia voted for Axxle1. My bold prediction would be this: All of them did.

By the way, I was right to defend Axxle1, ha! I thought he was innocent. I also maintained that Insomniac was the most innocent-seeming.

Insomniac -- Ditto again, but Insomniac strikes me as playing identical to how he was in MII. And not in a deliberate, covert mafia strategy way, but in an unavoidable, frank and honest, he's just townie sort of way.

Just gloating here. Anyway, I didn't trust Theorel very much, so that should bring me down a peg.

Right now I'm trying to look at why the bandwagon against Jo faded into nothing but the bandwagon against Axxle succeeded. I suspect the common denominator there may be the mafia, since we know Axxle1 was innocent and Jo was question mark.

[Tables]

On that note, how important does everyone think it is to determine which kill was mafia and which kill was by the witch/woodcutter/militia? And conversely, how bad is it if we're wrong?

I don't think it's very do-able, especially seeing as the mafia currently has a much bigger proportion of town discussion than us and can easily mislead the town thoughts. However, it could be possible to discuss, although I think it'll just devolve down to 'I think X was more town than Y'.

That said, personally I think theorel was more likely the woodcutter/witch kill. There was suspicion against him, and he cast the hammer, which in some people's eyes is enough to raise suspicion level. Imsomniac has been generally relatively quiet but slightly helpful, and would be a safe mafia kill.

SFS, thanks for that. Now I'm not going to survive past night 2, most likely (unless a doctor protects me). I've been mentioning inactivity because I know I've been inactive due to RL, and generally by the time I reply someone has mentioned 'Oh look Tables is inactive still'. I'm also apparently a lot less able to keep up with proper mafia games than I thought I was.

That said, although I know his result is true (but I'd say that anyway derp), I have no reason to believe he actually did investigate me last night, and neither does anyone else. It's plausible he's mafia, wanting to make a double cover for why he isn't dying (he's used his one shot role) and why he shouldn't be lynched (he correctly pegged a townie!). It's also possible he trusts me completely and wants to make people less suspicious of me, although honestly I can't see this one happening (while I know I'm town, I certainly haven't done enough to clear myself irrevocably). However, this could be because he as a power role of his own and wants to avoid danger on himself from the mafia. In short, I'm not going to trust SFS any more for this information, and don't think it should be regarded too strongly.
So now Theorel's dead, is it worth considering his thoughts that the bandwagon was a townie driven wagon on a townie? Obviously, we can't know for certain, but we do know who voted for Axxle1, who expressed suspicion without voting and who didn't. We also know the hammer didn't come from Mafia (as an aside, it's possible the theorel kill was based on his hammer by a suspicious Witch or vigilante). Correct me if I'm wrong but the order of votes was:

Galzria (1) - 760
Joth (2) - 848
Captain Frisk (3) - 875
SFS (4) - 883
pops (5) - 895
Glooble (6) - 1042
Grujah (7) - 1050
Theorel ( - 1162

Of those, Glooble and Grujah's votes seem the weakest, and came after quite a long break. Glooble's reasoning gave no reasons for his suspicion of Axxle, just that he was suspicious and that we would get information from the lynch. Grujah might have given a reason on an earlier page, but his vote at 1050 and post at 1048 didn't give any reasoning. The closeness of these two's votes, as well as the lack of good reasoning for pushing the wagon right up to 7 isn't exactly leaving me comfortable about them. My notes regarding day 1, however, don't give me an awful lot of other reason to be suspicious of them, but still, I'd be interested to know what reasons those two can give for their votes.

[Tables]

Gosh dang it cool smilie. Also just read Robz post. I'm not sure ALL the mafia voted for Axxle, but I'd certainly expect, with the numbers there, at least some did. Otherwise, Robz, you're making a bold guess that four people are all town (or Witch).

[Robz888]

Galzria (1) - 760
Joth (2) - 848
Captain Frisk (3) - 875
SFS (4) - 883
pops (5) - 895
Glooble (6) - 1042
Grujah (7) - 1050
Theorel ( - 1162

Cut out Theorel (he's dead) and Galzria (he's the first on, and he left the Jo bandwagon) and probably SFS (I don't distrust his claim), and you have arguably the most likely mafia suspects.

[Glooble]

Of those, Glooble and Grujah's votes seem the weakest, and came after quite a long break. Glooble's reasoning gave no reasons for his suspicion of Axxle, just that he was suspicious and that we would get information from the lynch.

Okay, this is starting to piss me off. Say my reasoning was unoriginal. Say you weren't sold on it. But don't say I didn't give any reasons when there are like four posts full of deliberation leading up to my vote, plus the summary post I just gave pops in response to the same question!

[Tables]

Sorry. I've looked back, and there's nothing on your reasons for about 50 posts up to your vote, which is about how far back I looked. So yes, you've given reasons, and you gave reasons day 1. Which just leaves Grujah whose vote strikes me as especially strange.

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, so the interesting thing is, most of the people who didn't vote for Axxle are dead.

Ok - The rules lawyer in me can't let this slide.  This is explicitly false.  7 people didn't vote for Axxle1.  2 of them are dead.  Most of them are still alive.  Of the 2 that are dead: 1 of them is Axxle1.  Of course he is dead.  We lynched him. 

After Axxle flipped town - it's almost a given that we're going to look at the false lynchers, so it makes sense to let them live.

That said - I do agree with you.  It seems unlikely that with managed to lynch town without the help of scum, although if have the minimum # mafia (2) then this is somewhat plausible... impressive even.

I agree with pops that SFS's roleclaim reads as poor town play. 

From my scumhunting perspective (of course I exclude myself, because I can verify my role PM), that leaves Galz, J, pops, Glooble, Grujah.  I'm pretty sure I could write at least a flimsy argument for any of them, but with my track record, I'm hesitant to start convincing myself of anything.  For sure, they can't all be Mafia.

[Robz888]

@Frisk you are right. When I started writing that post, I was thinking Opal was dead, too, because of the switch-up. Which made it more of a definitive statement.

Anyway, here are some notes on Peak Bandwagon votes against the 3 players that received significant votes:

Pops: Insomniac, O, Galzria, Grujah
Galzria is first off


jotheonah: Green Opal, Galzria, Tables, Axxle, Robz888
Galzria and Tables get off, Dsell and SFS get on
jotheonah: Green Opal, Axxle, Robz888, SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell


Axxle : Galzria, jotheonah, Captain_Frisk, SwitchedFromStarcraft, popsofctown, Gloobe, Grujah, Theorel

Notes: Galzria voted for every bandwagon at some point
Grujah voted for Pops and Axxle but not Jo
SFS voted for Jo and Axxle but not Pops

I haven't exactly become less suspicious of Jo, by the way. And one interpretation for me would be that Jo is mafia, and he had the help of mafia co-horts to boost Axxle into lynch territory. Glooble and Grujah look pretty suspicious to me, in that regard.

[jotheonah]

pops, a long long time ago you said my bandwagon was very instructive if I flipped town.  Let's assume (just for the purposes of this exercise) I had been killed and flipped town. What would you know now? Who would you suspect?

[Grujah]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

[Galzria]

@Robz:

I knew being around everywhere would be cause for grief later! Yes, I was "on" every bandwagon. I even (arguably) drove Axxle1's. You and I play the game a little differently. I don't regret making those early votes because watching responses is, I think, very valuable. I was also very quick to get off when I felt we either a) hit the danger zone, or b) I got the information I wanted.

When I finally settled (wrongly) on Axxle1, I was indeed the only vote there. I asked people to review my case, and repeated it when requested, but didn't really push people to climb on board.

Now, if I were Mafia, the only reason I would've jumped off the J wagon would be because I thought it would crash without my help, so I could clear my name. <-- That's a reasonable argument against me.

However, I'm not Mafia. And with the VT reveal on Axxle1, I'm looking at those who were "right" D1. You, and O primarily. You both could be right because of good reads, or because you are Mafia who knew Axxle1's innocence. I'm inclined to go with the former - for now.

So, it interests me greatly to hear if your D1 suspicions, both of whom lived, are still in your sights D2. For you Robz, that's Jotheonah. For O, it's popsofctown.

So to summarize: I don't regret being "on" all of the bandwagons. I play differently than your and gained information from each. I regret being wrong on the lynch target, but am moving on. There WAS good info gained, like who was right, and I'm willing to pursue that.

As far as the others on the Wagon: I named Grujah in an earlier post, though as someone pointed out, he may be a mislynch waiting to happen. Glooble got on-board late, and while I'm sure he gave his reasons, I also feel he's been unmemorable, so I couldn't have tools you what they were (outside of his most recent post). SFS I have a hard time reading, since he doesn't engage in conversation. He posts large blocks of "analysis", but then leaves. C.F. I'm more inclined to trust, but couldn't really tell you why. Jotheonah may still get my vote today for his actions yesterday. I don't put much weight in his Axxle1 vote however, as it was an "anybody but me" vote.

[jotheonah]

For me, it would put more trust on those who vouched for you, namely Glooble and Theo.

One of whom is confirmed town.