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theory

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Mafia III Discussion
« on: May 27, 2012, 10:08:18 pm »

Please enclose all your posts with spoiler tags
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ftl

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2012, 03:38:28 am »

This is the one with even potential roles not announced?

I bet optimal strategy for Mafia involves a fake roleclaim at some point, with some obscure role. Since a counter-claim is pretty unlikely, and nobody will ever find out if you're lying until you die, since they can't count other power roles as they die.

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2012, 08:01:16 pm »

Lots of stuff going on so far... how are things supposed to get off the ground day one anyway? I guess the town have some incentive to try to start some kind of discussion, because otherwise the mafia will get to mow them down one by one... which in turn gives the mafia incentive to start discussion, so they look like townies. Also, discussion in general shouldn't really hurt the mafia?

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2012, 08:03:14 pm »

Test
Please enclose all your posts with spoiler tags
[/spoiler]

Just testing to see if it's possible to put quotes within spoiler tags. Unfortunately it seems you can't?

Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2012, 02:55:02 am »


Just testing to see if it's possible to put quotes within spoiler tags. Unfortunately it seems you can't?


As long as everything in the quote is in spoiler tags it's okay though, right?
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2012, 09:00:52 am »


Just testing to see if it's possible to put quotes within spoiler tags. Unfortunately it seems you can't?


As long as everything in the quote is in spoiler tags it's okay though, right?

The problem is that you can see the "Quote from: ------" junk at the top, which basically tells you exactly what they're quoting. I mean, I guess you have to think about that to figure it out, and in that case you just mouse-over it anyway. I'm specifically testing this for quoting stuff from the other thread, wondering how safe that is. Obviously stuff in here it doesn't really matter. As for the stuff from the other thread, I don't know whether people really care that much, I'm just throwing it out there.

popsofctown

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2012, 01:44:51 pm »

This is the one with even potential roles not announced?

I bet optimal strategy for Mafia involves a fake roleclaim at some point, with some obscure role. Since a counter-claim is pretty unlikely, and nobody will ever find out if you're lying until you die, since they can't count other power roles as they die.

If the town massclaims, they can often reverse engineer the setup and determine whether the true setup has more town power or less town power than is claimed, based on what would be balanced.  If the mafia claim a strong power role and so do townies (or dead townies reveal them), then he becomes suspicous.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2012, 04:28:49 pm »

Random voting makes me sad.  Doesn't help the town at all.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2012, 05:05:19 pm »

I really hope there isn't a Jester in that game, or any other bastard role for that matter.
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popsofctown

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2012, 05:24:05 pm »

I reviewed the setup for Mafia III, so none of the roles are any more of a bastard than I am.
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2012, 10:05:53 pm »

Quote
Quote
Quote

Just testing to see if it's possible to put quotes within spoiler tags. Unfortunately it seems you can't?


As long as everything in the quote is in spoiler tags it's okay though, right?

The problem is that you can see the "Quote from: ------" junk at the top, which basically tells you exactly what they're quoting. I mean, I guess you have to think about that to figure it out, and in that case you just mouse-over it anyway. I'm specifically testing this for quoting stuff from the other thread, wondering how safe that is. Obviously stuff in here it doesn't really matter. As for the stuff from the other thread, I don't know whether people really care that much, I'm just throwing it out there.


You can just delete that part, like so.
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Ozle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2012, 08:18:47 am »

TINAS clearly mafia
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2012, 05:53:05 pm »

We're finally getting and being able to use metagame information, which is fun.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2012, 06:40:00 pm »

"The analysis is pretty useless, actually. Anyone who plays Mafia one way every time and Town another way every time is a terrible mafia player, and we can't deduce all too much from looking at Robz past roleclaims"

Actually you'd be an extremely powerful townie, but terrible scum.
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ftl

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2012, 06:55:45 pm »

Presumably, everyone *tries* to play Mafia similarly every time? In the case of town, you're trying to play however you think is best to ferret out the scum, whereas if you're scum, you're trying to play however you played when you were town, so as not to arouse suspicion.

However, at this stage, people might just change playing styles radically just based on the fact that when you're new to a game, strategy can change very very quickly as you learn. Like, in my first game, I ended up being last to vote basically always, and I'd try to change that for my next game, whether I'm town or mafia. So consistency or inconsistency is a much more reliable tell for experienced players with more than one game under their belt...

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2012, 03:10:04 pm »

I think I'd vote O to death on Day 2.  If he's really a jester mafia should NK him immediately to prevent the chance of him winning so if he's not dead by Day 2 he's mafia.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2012, 03:36:16 am »

Does anyone else want Pineapple right about now?
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2012, 08:42:20 pm »

I am going to ban all self lynchers from my games.  It's rediculous.

O should die, too obvious a mafia.

Am I the only one following this?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2012, 08:47:43 pm »

I'm following the game as well as moderating it but obviously I cannot speculate. Except about pineapple that stuffs delicious
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2012, 10:24:40 pm »

Nah, I'm following it too, but I don't trust my reads on anyone. O seems mafia. Robz maybe.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2012, 04:18:37 am »

BTW, what's everyone's feeling about the whole "no lynch day 1" thing? Unbiased people not in any ongoing game, or ones past day 1.

IMO, Since nobody can possibly be guaranteed to be town on day 1, with no power roles investigated and nothing real to go on, for a townie, a 2/8 chance of lynching a mafia (in a 9-player game) is better than a chance of giving Mafia a free night (no lynch).

I suppose it depends on what power roles are around, but only cop can really change that? And town never know that they have one?

Robz for mafia for arguing against this. One of the people who was about to be lynched is the other mafia. :-p
« Last Edit: June 04, 2012, 04:54:29 am by ftl »
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #21 on: June 04, 2012, 05:43:44 am »

is J the guy that must die to win (Jester?) If yes, he is doing a good job  ;D
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theory

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #22 on: June 04, 2012, 05:02:19 pm »

Is anyone else totally unable to keep track of all these various Mafia games now?
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Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #23 on: June 04, 2012, 05:03:56 pm »

I've stopped trying to keep up until a game comes along that sounds interesting enough to actually take part in
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ftl

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #24 on: June 04, 2012, 06:15:51 pm »

Is anyone else totally unable to keep track of all these various Mafia games now?

Yeah, of course not. I'm not Robz!

I skip basically everything with people seriously analyzing each other's posts and try to get a tl;dr if there is one. I skim games occasionally to find interesting strategy tidbits, like the no lynch day 1 discussion. (I'm still curious as to what unbiased and experienced people have to say about that! :) )

I'm also following because I'm curious as to whether Town can do better than chance at lynching, except by information from power roles; my small amount of experience in IRL mafia led me to believe the answer is no, but apparently since Forum Mafia is a thing, the answer must be yes, or else people would tire of this pretty quickly; so I'm curious and am watching.

(So far, the only Mafia that I've seen lynched on this forum, have been due to power roles finding them out, so it's not looking good...)
[/spoiler
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #25 on: June 05, 2012, 02:23:58 am »

We need a replacement for def. pm me if you are interested. First come first serve
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #26 on: June 05, 2012, 08:06:08 pm »

No spoiler tag this time. We NEED a replacement for def in Mafia III, the sooner the better, please PM me if your interested in jumping in for def day 2 onward.

First come first serve.

So spoiler tags are the worst, sign ups for replacement closed, had 3 people volunteer. Mafia III will be back underway later tonight
« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 08:34:00 pm by Insomniac »
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2012, 01:38:38 am »

And for the first time, I am dead. I am allowed to post in here, right?
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #28 on: June 06, 2012, 07:34:22 am »

As vanilla town ghost, I believe so.

@galzria-I am sorry.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #29 on: June 06, 2012, 10:48:26 am »

As per the Pre game discussion in mafia 3 there is to be no dead players posting here at all until after the game. We can't stop players from reading the thread and information from night kills can be too useful.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #30 on: June 11, 2012, 03:46:00 pm »

That town is SOOO DEAD.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #31 on: June 11, 2012, 03:51:49 pm »

I am so glad for the spoiler tags.  I have accidentally clicked the view new posts a little too many times.
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theory

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #32 on: June 11, 2012, 03:54:12 pm »

I'm confused.  No one cares that Axxle claimed that jothenoah had no role, and he did have a role (SK)?
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #33 on: June 11, 2012, 04:14:56 pm »

I'm confused.  No one cares that Axxle claimed that jothenoah had no role, and he did have a role (SK)?
I'm not sure, but SK comes back vanilla?

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #34 on: June 13, 2012, 02:51:05 pm »

Did DSell just sell out the Doctor?
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #35 on: June 13, 2012, 02:54:27 pm »

Did DSell just sell out the Doctor?

I thought DSELL and Volt were the mafia to be honest.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #36 on: June 17, 2012, 02:32:07 pm »

michaeljb upvoted this post.  Is this a message from beyond the grave?  Is he telling us that O truly is a mafia member?  Or maybe he is expressing satisfaction that we avenged his death at Volt's hand?  Or maybe he is simply a big fan of the dread pirate Roberts.  We may never know.

A little bit of expressing satisfaction, mostly being a fan of the dread pirate :-D
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #37 on: June 17, 2012, 04:45:36 pm »

michaeljb upvoted this post.  Is this a message from beyond the grave?  Is he telling us that O truly is a mafia member?  Or maybe he is expressing satisfaction that we avenged his death at Volt's hand?  Or maybe he is simply a big fan of the dread pirate Roberts.  We may never know.

A little bit of expressing satisfaction, mostly being a fan of the dread pirate :-D

NO dead player discussion until the conclusion of M3 please
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #38 on: June 20, 2012, 01:10:28 pm »

And with the game ending: here is a link to the "Dead Townie Society"

http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/Enkj7w86yLpCq

We let J in because it was clear that the only extra information he had was that he had killed me night 1, which didn't really seem like a big secret.

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #39 on: June 20, 2012, 01:10:43 pm »

This thread should now accept all players discussion as well, dead, living, mafia, town and serial killer. Spoiler tags no longer required.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #40 on: June 20, 2012, 01:17:36 pm »

Well done team. Yuma was the only black crow for me. I was sure about Volt as Mafia, and Jo as SK.

Robz was sure about Eevee and Volt as Mafia.

What we couldn't decide on was who was #3. He had Dsell listed tops, I had eHalcyon listed tops. So tip of the hat to Yuma, you had us both fooled leaving D1.

Also, eH, you got WAY lucky with your jail of Yuma N4. It was game over there if you miss.

Other props go to Axxle, for playing a great cop, and leading the town to brighter days.

Yay!
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Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2012, 01:38:47 pm »

So tip of the hat to Yuma, you had us both fooled leaving D1.

I think I got a bit lucky with real life events. I had to leave and at the time jot seemed the best place to put a vote on. If I had stayed around I probably would have been swept up into lynching you instead. Being away from the game gave me an out when you revealed town and made me look much smarter when jot was SK.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #42 on: June 20, 2012, 02:01:31 pm »

So for me to chime in, I thought the first few days were super interesting, I did screw up on Axxle, I had read the role cop role and pmd him as if he was a role cop for jotheonah, in doing so we turned him into a rolecop thinking it was just as powerful as a cop. Oops. That said I was VERY impressed by the late jailkeeping by eH he managed to target who the mafia sent for the kill everytime. It had previously been Volt, so I dont know why Volt didnt continue with the kill on eH who the mafia knew was jailkeeper, yuma did it instead.

For those of you thinking the town was underpowered it was originally a cop and a jailkeeper, vs a serial killer and mafia. I DIDN'T expect the town to kill Jo after learning he was an SK as his desire day 2 would have been to kill mafia I think.

The original setup was reviewed by pops who thought the balance was fine.

Outstanding job to Axxle and eH for recovering the town. Tip of the hat to the mafia as well for almost getting a perfect game.

The rest is very transparent.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2012, 04:38:17 am »

I love that everyone thought I was mafia. Oh man did I know I looked scummy but I just couldn't do a thing about it.

There were a couple days where I was so surprised to wake up alive, and apparently I was lucky not to have been lynched as well.

I was happy (frustrated, but happy) about getting Morgrim right and then pegging all three mafia. That's what I was most proud of in the game. I learned a TON too.

Also, I totally thought everyone saw the Doctor hint from Volt. Apparently it wasn't intended to be one but it seemed really clear to me. I didn't mean to out him but at the time I really thought he was mafia anyway, so I meant to point it out as a mafia tactic. Same for when I quoted yuma's vote for Morgrim on day 1. I was meaning to point out that he was scummier than he was getting credit for: he opportunistically jumped on that same bandwagon twice without a lot of real conviction either time.
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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2012, 01:04:27 pm »

Also, I totally thought everyone saw the Doctor hint from Volt. Apparently it wasn't intended to be one but it seemed really clear to me. I didn't mean to out him but at the time I really thought he was mafia anyway, so I meant to point it out as a mafia tactic. Same for when I quoted yuma's vote for Morgrim on day 1. I was meaning to point out that he was scummier than he was getting credit for: he opportunistically jumped on that same bandwagon twice without a lot of real conviction either time.

In your position, I think I would have said something in response to me like, "I saw the doctor tell as well -- didn't everyone?  I think it's too obvious and must be scummy."  Of course, that might have prompted others (e.g. O) to say that he didn't see it, which might have given Volt the confidence to fakeclaim doctor.  But still, it looked scummy when you quoted things that you hinted were important but then didn't offer any discussion about it until prompted.  You did that with the yuma post and the Volt post and it was tough to figure out what you were implying with those, sort of like Mafia hedging.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #45 on: June 25, 2012, 01:11:15 pm »

But still, it looked scummy when you quoted things that you hinted were important but then didn't offer any discussion about it until prompted.  You did that with the yuma post and the Volt post and it was tough to figure out what you were implying with those, sort of like Mafia hedging.

Yeah I can understand that. I suppose from my perspective I was obviously not scum, so I didn't need to actively try to not look scummy...only the mafia should have to do that. I wanted to get that out in the open to say "either we have a doctor or this is scum trying to get credibility." I definitely thought it was the later but I thought there was enough chance that the former was true that he was not my first choice for a lynch that day.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #46 on: June 25, 2012, 01:25:15 pm »

But still, it looked scummy when you quoted things that you hinted were important but then didn't offer any discussion about it until prompted.  You did that with the yuma post and the Volt post and it was tough to figure out what you were implying with those, sort of like Mafia hedging.

Yeah I can understand that. I suppose from my perspective I was obviously not scum, so I didn't need to actively try to not look scummy...only the mafia should have to do that. I wanted to get that out in the open to say "either we have a doctor or this is scum trying to get credibility." I definitely thought it was the later but I thought there was enough chance that the former was true that he was not my first choice for a lynch that day.

You could say that then.  Whenever you posted information without analysis, it looks like you're fishing to see how the town feels so that you can respond accordingly. :P
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #47 on: June 25, 2012, 01:41:35 pm »

But still, it looked scummy when you quoted things that you hinted were important but then didn't offer any discussion about it until prompted.  You did that with the yuma post and the Volt post and it was tough to figure out what you were implying with those, sort of like Mafia hedging.

Yeah I can understand that. I suppose from my perspective I was obviously not scum, so I didn't need to actively try to not look scummy...only the mafia should have to do that. I wanted to get that out in the open to say "either we have a doctor or this is scum trying to get credibility." I definitely thought it was the later but I thought there was enough chance that the former was true that he was not my first choice for a lynch that day.

You could say that then.  Whenever you posted information without analysis, it looks like you're fishing to see how the town feels so that you can respond accordingly. :P

Oh boy I thought I had. I meant to! #1159? Eh, we don't really need to go into this, we're in the winners' circle! Suffice it to say that I was just convincing enough to get you guys to keep me alive and you guys were clever enough to make the right plays necessary to win. I didn't play as well as I could have but it was fun.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #48 on: June 25, 2012, 01:47:47 pm »

Oh boy I thought I had. I meant to! #1159? Eh, we don't really need to go into this, we're in the winners' circle! Suffice it to say that I was just convincing enough to get you guys to keep me alive and you guys were clever enough to make the right plays necessary to win. I didn't play as well as I could have but it was fun.

But you didn't say it when you quoted the post.  Your mysterious posts (including the one with yuma where you said something like, "I'll just leave this here") were so scummy to me because you didn't explain why you posted it. :P

I think you played just fine, even though you were pretty suspicious.  Turns out I was pretty scummy myself at times, though nobody actually called me out on it.  A few people in the QT thought I might be the third Mafia.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III Discussion
« Reply #49 on: June 25, 2012, 01:53:31 pm »

Oh boy I thought I had. I meant to! #1159? Eh, we don't really need to go into this, we're in the winners' circle! Suffice it to say that I was just convincing enough to get you guys to keep me alive and you guys were clever enough to make the right plays necessary to win. I didn't play as well as I could have but it was fun.

But you didn't say it when you quoted the post.  Your mysterious posts (including the one with yuma where you said something like, "I'll just leave this here") were so scummy to me because you didn't explain why you posted it. :P

I think you played just fine, even though you were pretty suspicious.  Turns out I was pretty scummy myself at times, though nobody actually called me out on it.  A few people in the QT thought I might be the third Mafia.

That's because only Mafia forget their own thoughts on arguments D1 to push a town lynch instead of a scum lynch. ;)

Just like only spies forget who they put on a successfully passed Mission 1. ;D
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Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
Pages: 1 2 [All]
 

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