Before we started claiming, yuma and Eevee were suspicious to me as the two players getting the least attention. Axxle has been at the center since his claim and O has been very vocal. Dsell has also been vocal, though I don't recall him ever showing any sort of conviction.
As an aside, I don't mean the "I'm certain" conviction that got Galz lynched. I just mean that I don't think Dsell has appeared to be scum hunting. Rather, it seems more like he's been playing it safe and trying to survive. yuma and Eevee too, especially because they've been quite quiet.
But yes. As I've brought up, yuma and Eevee were very suspicious. Assuming that there was a townie among Dsell, Voltgloss and O, yuma and Eevee were obviously safe lynches and we could sort out the rest later.
If yuma is not lying, our possible scenarios are:
1. Mafia did not attempt a kill. Extremely unlikely.
2. Mafia targeted yuma. Possible.
If yuma is lying, that means yuma was the one performing the kill and we have no idea who the target actually was last night.
Note that yuma claimed Eevee as target without knowing who I jailed. This actually lends some credence to yuma's claim. Say yuma was actually Mafia targeting O, but yuma claims he targeted Eevee. If I then revealed that I had jailed O, yuma is in trouble. Yeah there are some ways around it ("maybe there is a Mafia roleblocker!") but it would stink of desperation.
Now consider that yuma would have to make a claim eventually. As a townie, no reason to lie. As mafia, it's dangerous because there was the chance I could catch the lie.
My likely scenarios are thus:
1. Vig yuma targeted Eevee who is probably Mafia, but not guaranteed.
2. Mafia yuma targeted VT Eevee.
3. Mafia yuma targeted SOMEONE but lies that he targeted Eevee, also Mafia.
Scenario 3 is very possible. The gambit is that, if yuma was jailed, we don't catch the lie. If SOMEONE was jailed, yuma is caught and gets lynched... and then Eevee might be cleared. Remember that, before claims began, yuma and Eevee were both *obvious* lynches. Now, not so obvious. So as far as gambits go, this is a good one for two Mafia under pressure.
This is not factoring in Axxle’s investigation. yuma claimed a role, so if he was just plain Mafia that would be a lie that Axxle could catch. Honest townie play? Bold mafia move, with potential to confuse the issue over Eevee? Hard to say.
I’m also surprised that neither yuma nor Eevee claimed Doctor. As Mafia, VT is definitely the safest claim now. If yuma were mafia, was it better to claim Vig over Doctor? The only reason I can think of is fear that Eevee would counterclaim and that Axxle could verify. If Eevee is Mafia, claiming anything other than VT is dangerous. Maybe if Eevee had a Mafia role and would be caught by an investigation either way. If Eevee is Mafia, I think he would be a non-role Mafia. If yuma is Mafia, I think he is more likely one with a role.
We now know that the setup had Cop, Jailkeeper, Serial Killer, three mafia, 6 VT, and either a seventh VT or a 1-shot Vig. In this setup, does the town warrant a 1-shot Vig?
I doubt there is a Mafia roleblocker, or else Axxle should have been blocked and would have received no result yesterday and today. What about other Mafia roles?
Mafia rolecop? There is only Cop and JK, and there is a SK. I don't think the scum needs more firepower. If they had it, it might justify a vigilante... but probably more than a 1-shot. Gah... I wish we'd known this earlier. Could have thought things through clearly, now I'm not sure what old assumptions I've made no longer hold.
Maybe yuma is telling the truth (is town) and there really is a Godfather with... 1-shot bulletproof? Full bullet-proof? Would that be balanced? Maaaaan. We probably shouldn't have killed jo, SK or not.
My top FOUR candidates at this point are yuma, Eevee, Dsell and Volt. I trust Volt the most out of these four, but maybe that's bias because I'd thought he was doctor. And if he's Mafia, would he have claimed doctor based on my own suspicions, or been turned against it because of townie-Dsell's suspicion against it?
Based on the above considerations, I think the best target is either yuma or Dsell. But it's so tricky. I am interested in Axxle’s and O’s thoughts and much less so the others because they are far more suspicious. I am not counting out O as Mafia but at this point I think we have to have faith in him.
This was written before yuma's explanation for targetting Eevee. I don't think it changes much. From a vig perspective I think the math is poor (would be safer not to attack anyone at all) but it's still plausible.
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Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS) (Read 156463 times)