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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 156627 times)

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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1275 on: June 14, 2012, 04:29:17 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.

Why did I argue for Dsell at the start of this day?  As an extension of my argument the previous day:  that there were too many claiming VTs for no mafia to be among them.  What was wrong with that argument?  Why is following through with that argument suddenly a scumtell?  I wasn't looking for an "easy" target, or a "hard" target - I was looking for scum using the analysis I'd been using to date.  I was being consistent. 

O, you said I questioned eHalcyon, our most confirmed town.  Are you referring to when I put him a close #2 after Axxle?  That's... not questioning him.  Or suspecting him.  Why is that a scumtell?

The fact that I hammered Morgrim was simply because I was one of those waiting to hear what he had to say!  Apparently waiting to vote because I want to hear the potential lynchee's arguments makes me more suspicious than the people who voted without waiting?  Dsell, how does that jive with your argument that Morgrim was the victim of a "hasty lynch?"

I want to hear from yuma before deciding on his scumminess.  I think the most likely scum is Dsell or Eevee, as I previously mentioned.  Quite possibly both together, with either yuma or O as third.   

In any case:  I'm not going to convince Dsell I'm Town any more than he can convince me that he's Town.  O I think is most likely Town, regardless of his suspicion.  I am curious to hear from eHalc.  If there is something in this latest colloquy that concerns you - about me, or Dsell, or even O - let's hear it.

Back to work.

I'm sorry this is rambling, I am just SO TIRED.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1276 on: June 14, 2012, 04:29:31 am »

I will post them tomorrow. It's nothing fancy, just some ideas to keep the town alive.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1277 on: June 14, 2012, 04:36:11 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.


You misinterpreted. My two least suspicious are Eevee and Dsell, your most suspicious are eevee and Dsell, thus the comment.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1278 on: June 14, 2012, 04:42:33 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.


You misinterpreted. My two least suspicious are Eevee and Dsell, your most suspicious are eevee and Dsell, thus the comment.

...I'm still not comprehending, but chalk that up to my sleep deprivation.  As long as you're not saying "Volt is scum because he doesn't have time to give his analysis before Dsell leaves," which is what I thought you were saying, then we're cool. 
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1279 on: June 14, 2012, 04:46:23 am »

I will need to go back and review Eevee's and Dsell's posts to see which I think is more likely scum.  I'm... not sure when I will have time to do that; maybe not until the weekend, and most likely not before Dsell leaves, unfortunately.

lol yea I think volt is scum.

I'm sorry I've been living at the office this entire week.  Like, not going home.  Ever.  I've been here since Monday morning. 

Sorry, this really irks me.  Attacking someone for their RL commitments really, really irks me.  It's possibly because I'm not getting sleep.  It's 4 in the morning here.


You misinterpreted. My two least suspicious are Eevee and Dsell, your most suspicious are eevee and Dsell, thus the comment.

...I'm still not comprehending, but chalk that up to my sleep deprivation.  As long as you're not saying "Volt is scum because he doesn't have time to give his analysis before Dsell leaves," which is what I thought you were saying, then we're cool.

Nope. Definitely not what I was saying  ;D.

On that more-pleasant note, night all. Maybe the airport will have Wifi (and maybe I'll have time to actually use it).
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1280 on: June 14, 2012, 04:49:16 am »

Second scummiest: Voltgloss for the Hammer (which isn't as bad as a tell when he was hammering a townie in MYLO) and his bad logic where he tried to question Ehalycon, our most confirmed townie.

Which post was this?  I don't remember it now (lots has happened), and it was probably before claims were made.

And when are you leaving, O?  That last post sounds like it's soon, but another post implied it would be next week?

In any case:  I'm not going to convince Dsell I'm Town any more than he can convince me that he's Town.  O I think is most likely Town, regardless of his suspicion.  I am curious to hear from eHalc.  If there is something in this latest colloquy that concerns you - about me, or Dsell, or even O - let's hear it.

I say again that I am not posting any analysis until yuma comments.  I have some thoughts written up and saved, and some other bits and pieces I haven't copied down since it may change after yuma responds.




As for Dsell's night plans, I say again that I'd prefer to hear them right away after yuma comments, and if Axxle agrees.  Doesn't mean we're going to follow those plans, of course, but I'd like to hear them.  Just not yet.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1281 on: June 14, 2012, 06:23:33 am »


Random points:

eHalcyon and Axxle are basicly equally certainly what they claim they are (yes, technically eHalcyon is more certain but they are both town or we lose, period). They both seem very smart players, I have no trouble placing my trust on them (regarding good night decisions).

O was suspicious of me earlier and seems less so now. Makes me (even more confident) he is actually town, members of mafia have very little reason to side with me (especially so given O seems to be the only one "believing in me") given how good of a lynch target I would make. Dsell and Volt didnt share O's reaction to my long post earlier, yuma hasnt responded yet. Dont really know what Axxle or eHalc think given they are (smartly so) waiting for yuma to post first.

Holding Volt's real life commitments against him doesnt feel fair. Still, a grumpy "i'm busy" doesnt help his case much either.

yuma has been absent, wouldnt read anything into that (= still not buying his claim without very concincing explanations). Pretty eager to hear his reasons.

@Dsell
Well.. townies just dont know. I mean, even though I have a bad voting record, I dont think my decisions have been particularly stupid. Like, lots of other people thought the guys I voted for were suspicious too, some of the now dead VT's played pretty damn terrible in this game, one could even say they got themselves lynched with their erratic behaviour. Saying "you have to have known he was xxx!" is actually kind of mafia-ish, given they actually do know whats what.

I'm working under the assumption that good town strategy atm is just to do anything you can to keep yourself alive (it's game over if that fails). That's why I made the long analysis post earlier, sorry if that was premature. Is this a flawed line of thinking?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1282 on: June 14, 2012, 09:26:23 am »

Sorry to keep everyone waiting. I haven't read some of the later posts since I wanted to get this out there as quick as possible.

Like I said, I am one-shot vigilante. The first two nights I did not use my power. The first night may have been the best night, but I decided to not use it since I wasn't completely sure about jotheonah. I didn't get back until after we had enough votes to lynch but during twilight. I saw no reason to expose jot then and put myself at risk, but wanted to see if he was actually the one-shot--there was the possibility of there being 2 in my mind--and encouraged him to use his kill.

Day came around and Axxle quickly revealed jot as SK or mafia so I didn't reveal then either. That night I saw no clear target and again didn't use my power.

Day 3 there was no reason to reveal. Night 3--I honestly thought we were dead and that it would take a miracle for us to pull out of it. My logic was that I didn't want to end the game without using my power. If we were dead, then using my power didn't matter; If we were alive then using my power had the possibility of giving the us a huge advantage of going into the next day. There was also the possibility of it killing us if somehow the Mafia didn't get their kill, but instead I killed a townie instead. But I felt like my odds were pretty good.

This was how I saw it. Last night I strongly believed O and Axxle and myself to be town. That is 3 of 7. Of the remaining 4 (eHal, Volt, Eevee and Dsell), 3 were Mafia. So I had a 3/4 chance of killing Mafia. Looking back over the previous days I felt Eevee and Dsell were the most likely to be Mafia. I picked Eevee over Dsell primarily because of Eevee's voting record although it really was a toss up between he and Dsell.

I don't know if that is convincing but that was my logic throughout. I knew I was taking a risk (1/4, and that doesn't include the odds of the Mafia NK failing) but at that time it looked like we had a pretty slim opportunity to survive the night anyways so I figured that if luck was already in our favor I might as well take advantage of it.

Anything else that is needed to know?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1283 on: June 14, 2012, 10:28:54 am »

So... I see like 6/6 townreads on me. I get the strong, strong impressive that mafia is trying to ally me against whoever the 4th townie is.

I mean seriously, as VT I'm not quite sure what the hell their gameplan is. They've now essentially left it to 3x confirmed townies for tonight, which doesn't seem very good for them.

@Ehalycon, I'll be leaving for the airport in less then 30 minutes, probably because you become online. I'll have sporadic internet access, but still probably internet access throughout the next week.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1284 on: June 14, 2012, 11:36:41 am »

Now interested in independent suspicions and analyses from everyone except Axxle. He and I can post after. On phone right now, but I will probably post my reason for jailing yuma when I get to a desktop.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1285 on: June 14, 2012, 11:40:07 am »

One major questions is, knowing that we have jailkeeper and we should have had a cop, as well as SK and three Mafia, is it plausible for us to have a one-shot vig? What roles are the mafia likely to have, if any?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1286 on: June 14, 2012, 01:10:45 pm »

Axxle, can you reveal your investigation results now?


I realized that my nighttime plan may give too much away to the mafia and may have not fully accounted for all aspects of the jailkeeper, so let me just say that I think eHal should continue to try to block rather than protect, and that I think our best lynching option (to make best use of nighttime actions) is Volt.

On that note, Volt, your composition-of-the-town argument was always ridiculous and is even more ridiculous now that we know Axxle was originally a normal cop.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1287 on: June 14, 2012, 01:33:19 pm »

I dont see any reason for Axxle to hold back anymore either. Also, how are we going to go about deciding who to lynch? I would personally give eHalcyon and Axxle ~all the power given they are the only ones we know are town.

Actually.. what if we just let them decide? Promise to answer all the questions they feel like asking and promise to vote for whoever they decide in the end?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1288 on: June 14, 2012, 01:37:44 pm »

I dont see any reason for Axxle to hold back anymore either. Also, how are we going to go about deciding who to lynch? I would personally give eHalcyon and Axxle ~all the power given they are the only ones we know are town.

Actually.. what if we just let them decide? Promise to answer all the questions they feel like asking and promise to vote for whoever they decide in the end?

I don't know about that, but I think it is better than following Dsell's plan. Dsell seems to be attempting to direct traffic in a certain direction--one that will benefit him. What do Axxle and eHal have to say? Do they think they have enough info to guarantee lynching a Mafia?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1289 on: June 14, 2012, 01:44:21 pm »

I want to hear Dsell's full case against Volt. I realize you might not have time to write it up though.

Same for everyone. Analyze away so Axxle and I can analyze your analyses. Dawg.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1290 on: June 14, 2012, 01:44:58 pm »

Not trying to direct traffic. I'm fine with giving them the power but my suggestion of volt was so that Axxle has the best chance of success tonight by confirming someone as town or mafia (Yuma). It really does depend on who he's investigated already, though.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1291 on: June 14, 2012, 01:46:17 pm »

Not trying to direct traffic. I'm fine with giving them the power but my suggestion of volt was so that Axxle has the best chance of success tonight by confirming someone as town or mafia (Yuma). It really does depend on who he's investigated already, though.

Why Volt and not Eevee?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1292 on: June 14, 2012, 01:51:55 pm »

eHal, I will try to do more later but I'm on my iPod currently so no huge posts. Basically, though, it's been process of elimination. I believe O to be town which would necessitate that eevee, Yuma, and volt are mafia. They are also seeming scummy and chummy to me. I say we should vote volt because of the reason above: Axxle can get a confirmation on Yuma. And I doubt eevee will get lynched today, he has some favor.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1293 on: June 14, 2012, 01:54:12 pm »

Yeah, I know you may not be able to post anything major.  Won't hold that against you.

Eevee has favour from who now?
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1294 on: June 14, 2012, 01:56:30 pm »

If Axxle has investigated one of eevee or volt, we should lynch the other, I think. Still a chance someone lied and is a mafia power role. Better to keep the guaranteed vanilla around and take a chance at hitting a mafia power role. I would say lynching Yuma gives us the best chance at that, but there is a minuscule possibility that he's telling the truth and we can investigate him tonight anyway.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1295 on: June 14, 2012, 01:57:24 pm »

Eevee has some favor with O at least. Certainly not with me.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1296 on: June 14, 2012, 02:58:27 pm »

Ok, on the compy for a bit.

My case against Volt (and Eevee and yuma) is based largely on process of elimination. I have to admit that up front. O is either town or an insanely crazy mafia who would risk dying night one when there was no real threat against him. I have to assume town because that is just too crazy for a mafia to give themselves a 50% chance of getting killed. So right now I'm thinking 80% chance of town, 20% chance of mafia. In practice, he may as well be town, but I have to leave that door open since he can't be confirmed the same way Axxle and eHal have been.

So if O is town, and because I KNOW I'm town, it has to be those three. No other options. So until I see otherwise I'm fully in support of getting rid of those three (note that if I'm mafia I'm completely throwing two partners under the bus...not a bad strategy maybe but the only preference I have for getting rid of one over another is completely strategic).

Ok, but process of elimination is not good enough for you other townies because you can't know for sure at this point that I'm town. Well, those three have been acting pretty scummy too. In addition to their bad records of lynching town (we all have pretty bad records right now though), they have tended to throw each other under the bus while still throwing the most blame on me. I described how Volt has done that in my post from last night. Eevee's done it too.

@Dsell
Well.. townies just dont know. I mean, even though I have a bad voting record, I dont think my decisions have been particularly stupid. Like, lots of other people thought the guys I voted for were suspicious too, some of the now dead VT's played pretty damn terrible in this game, one could even say they got themselves lynched with their erratic behaviour. Saying "you have to have known he was xxx!" is actually kind of mafia-ish, given they actually do know whats what.

I never said people should have known he was town. I was far from sure of that myself. However, I think his history of being crazy should have given people pause. We used just a couple days and really only closely examined one person day 3, even though we were in mylo. This is why I also don't buy it when Volt says that he hammered because he waited for Morgrim's response.

Yuma is an interesting case, because of his claim and because he claimed to have used it on Eevee. Like I've said, there is a minuscule chance he's telling the truth, and since we can investigate him to find out for sure, he is the only of the three that I think we should not lynch today.

But yuma has real holes in his story too. As O has pointed out, if we believe yuma we are forced to believe that the mafia targeted him and that he used up his one shot on the night he was jailed. Let's go back to that first point. Why would the mafia try to kill yuma? Makes no sense. Axxle was a practically-confirmed power role townie. Obvious choice. Well maybe the mafia thought he would be protected somehow (even though there was no evidence of a protective role until today!), so who were they next most likely to kill? How about O, who most people had cleared as town? No one seriously doubted O's VT claim day 3, largely because he'd already risked getting himself NK'd night 1. Easy choice for mafia to kill, so why isn't O dead? They don't want practically-confirmed townies around, they want suspicious players around. So why on earth would the mafia target yuma instead of O?

I may think of more throughout the day, but this is some basic support for the idea of a Volt-Eevee-yuma mafia trio.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1297 on: June 14, 2012, 04:39:38 pm »

*cough cough* Axxle? *cough*
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1298 on: June 14, 2012, 04:49:34 pm »

Sorry, I don't know what to think.  I'm extremely wary of yuma right now, but because so many people are already expressing concern are mafia trying to lead us there? Is it WIFOM?
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 4
« Reply #1299 on: June 14, 2012, 04:50:32 pm »

mafia would try to kill the least likely person to be protected or jailed.
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