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[Axxle]

Oh, and did I miss anything about Morgrim that makes him scum?

[Eevee]

i actually didnt realize i was hammering joh. i wouldnt have minded doing it - but i would have given ehalcyon a chance to make his post and stuff before voting.

Do you mean Dsell?  I don't think I had any other post I wanted to make that day.  Dsell said he was going to name someone he thought should be investigated, but he didn't have the chance.  At the start of day 3, he named you.

right, sorry about that.

i think axxle/any cop we have should investigate whoever they find the most suspicous.

[Eevee]

i stand by my vote to joh, he seemed like a super obvious not-town (he was). i mean, i dont mind lynching someone who in the worst case is a serial killer.


..that being said, i should keep better track of how many votes it takes to lynch. shouldnt distract the town by making mistakes like that, confusion works for mafias favour.

[eHalcyon]

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

If Morgrim flips town, his claim is meaningless (and... the game is over anyway?  the math is still unclear to me).  If Morgrim flips Mafia, the question is whether he is accusing O because he doesn't want to accuse a Mafia partner (Dsell) or because O truly is Mafia and he's setting up the WIFOM.  From Morgrim's play so far, I would suspect the former rather than the latter.  I also think that O has enough stuff going for him that we have to trust him... and if he is Mafia, we're screwed.  Did I post that before?  Because I keep thinking it.

The explanations for mjb make sense.

[Dsell]

I'm not going to give an elaborate defense here, but to adress what Volt, eHal, and some others have said about me having hedgy behavior. This game, I have been very confused. Day 1 things were very clear to me. I had a suspicion of Robz early that grew with everything he said. I trusted my gut about him in Mafia II and was right. Trusting my gut in Mafia III turned out to really do me in day 1. Day 2 I was encouraged because we had something to go on: Jo looked really guilty, and it turns out he was. Killing the Serial Killer was great but it unfortunately got us no real information since he was essentially on "his own team." Day 3 we don't have much new information. Day 2 was short and dominated by discussion of jo. I think the mafia have done a good job in this game at misdirecting us. I for one am quite confused today and I'm actually unsure how others seem much more confident. I mean yes I see the case against Morgrim but I don't think it's strong enough that we can confidently hammer him and risk losing right there.

I think everyone should be "hedgy" today in the sense that the townies simply don't have a lot of information here (unless there are other roles that haven't revealed their info yet). I know this makes me look suspicious but we really need to not hurry here. We have to make the right choice. Morgrim might be the right choice but I think we should post more, get more reactions to be sure.

In terms of the yuma post, I just put it there because I was pointing out that yuma has voted for Morgrim in the past. It could have been an early attempt to get a bandwagon rolling. Or it might not have been. But Morgrim, Eevee, and O are the only people alive (I believe) who've had more than a single vote on them, and in Morgrim's case, O cast the first vote (random I think) but yuma cast the third. It looks a little suspicious in hindsight, but really I'm at the stage where a LOT looks suspicious to me. Morgrim also voted for O way back when and O also voted for Eevee.

[Dsell]

I've also played a really, really, really bad game if I'm mafia. Most recently, blatantly defending Morgrim (even though I'm really not, I just think we shouldn't be hasty).

[Dsell]

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

If Morgrim flips town, his claim is meaningless (and... the game is over anyway?  the math is still unclear to me).  If Morgrim flips Mafia, the question is whether he is accusing O because he doesn't want to accuse a Mafia partner (Dsell) or because O truly is Mafia and he's setting up the WIFOM.  From Morgrim's play so far, I would suspect the former rather than the latter.  I also think that O has enough stuff going for him that we have to trust him... and if he is Mafia, we're screwed.  Did I post that before?  Because I keep thinking it.

The explanations for mjb make sense.

It looks to me like Morgrim didn't even see my post claiming VT. We both claimed #6.

Also, how is the math unclear? It's 5 to 3. If we lynch town we're at 4. Then nightkill makes 3. Game over, mafia wins. If we lynch town, we must somehow prevent the nightkill if the town has any hope of winning.

[Morgrim7]

Well, the points I rebutted that you do not believe I cannot change anything, can I? About the claim, well, I told the truth. What else could I do?

[O]

Morgrim wasn't hammered in my absence, so now I am 100% sure of my vote. Take your time hammering but i'm not changing.

Phone posting so can't say much

[Axxle]

Well, the points I rebutted that you do not believe I cannot change anything, can I? About the claim, well, I told the truth. What else could I do?

Err... ok.

Vote: Morgrim

[eHalcyon]

I'm not going to give an elaborate defense here, but to adress what Volt, eHal, and some others have said about me having hedgy behavior. This game, I have been very confused. Day 1 things were very clear to me. I had a suspicion of Robz early that grew with everything he said. I trusted my gut about him in Mafia II and was right. Trusting my gut in Mafia III turned out to really do me in day 1. Day 2 I was encouraged because we had something to go on: Jo looked really guilty, and it turns out he was. Killing the Serial Killer was great but it unfortunately got us no real information since he was essentially on "his own team." Day 3 we don't have much new information. Day 2 was short and dominated by discussion of jo. I think the mafia have done a good job in this game at misdirecting us. I for one am quite confused today and I'm actually unsure how others seem much more confident. I mean yes I see the case against Morgrim but I don't think it's strong enough that we can confidently hammer him and risk losing right there.

I think everyone should be "hedgy" today in the sense that the townies simply don't have a lot of information here (unless there are other roles that haven't revealed their info yet). I know this makes me look suspicious but we really need to not hurry here. We have to make the right choice. Morgrim might be the right choice but I think we should post more, get more reactions to be sure.

In terms of the yuma post, I just put it there because I was pointing out that yuma has voted for Morgrim in the past. It could have been an early attempt to get a bandwagon rolling. Or it might not have been. But Morgrim, Eevee, and O are the only people alive (I believe) who've had more than a single vote on them, and in Morgrim's case, O cast the first vote (random I think) but yuma cast the third. It looks a little suspicious in hindsight, but really I'm at the stage where a LOT looks suspicious to me. Morgrim also voted for O way back when and O also voted for Eevee.

The thing is, most of that hedgy behaviour I pointed out occurred on day 1.  Yeah, you went hard after Robz, but you seemed to be dabbling on all the other bandwagons.  It just felt off to me when I read through those old posts.  I also think the case against Morgrim is stronger than the case against Robz (which I grant was decent).

I still don't know what you mean with the yuma post.  Do you think having votes on you is suspicious, or not?  Why is it suspicious that yuma cast a vote on Morgrim?  As I remember the situation at that point, it was pretty reasonable to vote for Morgrim because he was acting somewhat crazy.  I don't know what you're getting at by mentioning the other votes (Morgrim for O, O for Eevee).

Also, how is the math unclear? It's 5 to 3. If we lynch town we're at 4. Then nightkill makes 3. Game over, mafia wins. If we lynch town, we must somehow prevent the nightkill if the town has any hope of winning.

Right.  Right.  The math makes sense.  It's been a long day... 

[Morgrim7]

Morgrim these are the reasons:
1) You voted for Galzria "Knowing he's town." They will talk about this one true hedge to rule them all for generations to come. I will take into consideration that the deadline was coming and you may have panicked.
2) You lurked for the entirety of Day 2.  You have an explanation for that and your confusion as to what happens adds weight to the reason.  I will take that into account.
3) You accuse O with no explanation.
4) Your other voting habits haven't been the best.  I noticed you voted for O and J yesterday.  Your reasons for O were weak and you didn't add to the J conversation.
5) Without giving much additional explanation as to why people should vote for J, you tried scaring someone into the J vote by writing "Thirty Minutes."  It turns out it was 12 hours left, an honest mistake to make.
6) You were not killed on Night 2, when you could have very much been exonerated for being a role.  And mafia are trying to kill roles.  The only reason they know a role wouldn't pop up is if you're a Mafia Goon or a Mafia Godfather or if a Mafia Rolecop had previously checked you, which I very much doubt Night 1.
7ish) Notice how many times I've had to say "maybe it's a mistake" or "maybe you have an explanation"  THose are adding up.



I agree with eHalcyon that DSell's quote of yuma just seems really weird.  Some explanation would be very appreciated.

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

With Eevee's vote Morgrim is at L-1, be careful all.

Hmm... I'm going to unvote to let Morgrim answer, I really doubt he'll say anything to change my mind but I want to see what he has to say.  But I don't want someone like Eevee accidentally hammering prematurely (which is suspicious by the way)

Unvote

Thank you for the list, Axxle.
Will rebut soon, gotta go now...

[Axxle]

Well, the points I rebutted that you do not believe I cannot change anything, can I? About the claim, well, I told the truth. What else could I do?

Err... ok.

Vote: Morgrim

Thank you for the list, Axxle.
Will rebut soon, gotta go now...

Oh, I thought your former was your rebuttal.

Unvote

[Morgrim7]

Morgrim these are the reasons:
1) You voted for Galzria "Knowing he's town." They will talk about this one true hedge to rule them all for generations to come. I will take into consideration that the deadline was coming and you may have panicked.
2) You lurked for the entirety of Day 2.  You have an explanation for that and your confusion as to what happens adds weight to the reason.  I will take that into account.
3) You accuse O with no explanation.
4) Your other voting habits haven't been the best.  I noticed you voted for O and J yesterday.  Your reasons for O were weak and you didn't add to the J conversation.
5) Without giving much additional explanation as to why people should vote for J, you tried scaring someone into the J vote by writing "Thirty Minutes."  It turns out it was 12 hours left, an honest mistake to make.
6) You were not killed on Night 2, when you could have very much been exonerated for being a role.  And mafia are trying to kill roles.  The only reason they know a role wouldn't pop up is if you're a Mafia Goon or a Mafia Godfather or if a Mafia Rolecop had previously checked you, which I very much doubt Night 1.
7ish) Notice how many times I've had to say "maybe it's a mistake" or "maybe you have an explanation"  THose are adding up.



I agree with eHalcyon that DSell's quote of yuma just seems really weird.  Some explanation would be very appreciated.

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

With Eevee's vote Morgrim is at L-1, be careful all.

Hmm... I'm going to unvote to let Morgrim answer, I really doubt he'll say anything to change my mind but I want to see what he has to say.  But I don't want someone like Eevee accidentally hammering prematurely (which is suspicious by the way)

Unvote

1) You are right, it was a panic-striken moment.
2) I was not on the forum at all for day two. I explained the times in the above post.
3) I assumed that if there are 6 vanilla townies (mosr likely scenario) and because I am one, O has to be lying.
4) I voted for O because he insiste on voting randomly even though we had proven why it was harmful to the town. I voted for J for the same reason as everybody else. It looked like he was going to get lynched, and I wanted my say in things.
5) I apologize for my mistake. I was not meaning to scare anyone, it was just such a tense moment, the deadline aas so close.
6) I was not killed on night 2 because I am not a role. And hey, maybe there is a doctor here.

[Dsell]

6) I was not killed on night 2 because I am not a role. And hey, maybe there is a doctor here.

Nobody knew you weren't a role (besides you) until day 3. And what do you mean about a doctor? Doesn't look like anybody's been saved so far.

[Morgrim7]

6) I was not killed on night 2 because I am not a role. And hey, maybe there is a doctor here.

Nobody knew you weren't a role (besides you) until day 3. And what do you mean about a doctor? Doesn't look like anybody's been saved so far.

True. Did I look like a role? Maybe the Mafia did not kill me because they thought I was harmless. Only the mafia know why they did not kill me.

[eHalcyon]

3) I assumed that if there are 6 vanilla townies (mosr likely scenario) and because I am one, O has to be lying.

Why do you assume 6?

13 total
3 Mafia
1 Serial Killer
4 dead VT

This leaves 5 townies alive.  Axxle has claimed town rolecop and there haven't been any serious suggestions that he's lying.  That leaves 4.  I expect there is at least one protective role, maybe 2.  Let's assume the latter.  That leaves 2 spots for VT -- plenty of room for both you and O.  O claimed "VT #5" and you claimed "VT #6".  So why do you think O is lying?

If there is only one protective role, then there's even room for a VT #7.  And if Insomniac is fully messing with the town and there is no other town power role, then we could have a VT #8.

And note that this is ignoring the fact that Dsell also claimed VT #6 before you.  Why did you accuse O but not Dsell?  Dsell suggests that you just missed his claim, which I guess makes sense.  Still, your math is really off because even assuming 6 VT, there's no reason for you to think O is lying.  Unless you've picked up on other tells?

[O]

I'll answer that: 7 VT means bastard mod who wants mafia to win, assuming one of our roles is axxle's rolecop

[eHalcyon]

I'll answer that: 7 VT means bastard mod who wants mafia to win, assuming one of our roles is axxle's rolecop

So you think we have 2 protective roles?  Not doing such a good job so far... 

Or maybe we have an exotic protective role?  Something like, instead of fully protecting a target, it would deflect the kill to an unfortunate VT.  Or maybe the power roles, including Axxle, have a built-in deflection... do such variants exist?  It would help explain why Axxle wasn't targeted.  The alternate explanations I can think of:

1. Axxle is mafia.  Don't even want to consider this one.  He's done enough to warrant trust.  Plus, no counterclaim.  And even if he is Mafia and we lynch him, it leaves us completely lost after that.

2. The mafia thought they could cast suspicion onto Axxle and get him lynched.  Nobody has really tried.  Several of us have mentioned the possibility (Dsell and Morgrim, I think, and I have as well, and probably some others) but nobody has pushed it.

3. The mafia were worried about protective roles and preferred to go after a safer NK.  Knowing who Axxle was planning to investigate might help with that (e.g. if Axxle happened to target a Mafia power role, that would have been a blow for them and they might have gone after Axxle immediately).

4. The mafia legitimately wanted to take michaeljb out of the picture, for one reason or another.

[O]

It's possible actually, only 2 power roles. Maybe Voltgloss didn't really how weak of town role Rolecop is, especially given his.... interesting... decision of making the SK investigate vanilla (unless Axxle lies, but if Axxle lies we're screwed anyways and who the hell are our powerroles).

And there's plenty of design space for town-plus roles, like innocent child, etc.

[Voltgloss]

It's possible actually, only 2 power roles. Maybe Voltgloss didn't really how weak of town role Rolecop is, especially given his.... interesting... decision of making the SK investigate vanilla (unless Axxle lies, but if Axxle lies we're screwed anyways and who the hell are our powerroles).

You mean Insomniac. 

For balance purposes, I would expect that a 13-player town with 3 mafia and 1 serial killer would either have (i) 4 middling town power roles, (ii) 1 strong town power role and 2 middling town power roles, or (iii) 2 strong town power roles.  (By "strong town power role" I mean something like full-fledged Cop or Vigilante.)

So far, we have 4 dead VT and 1 middling town power role (Role Cop, assuming Axxle is telling the truth).  And we have 3 more claimed VTs (O, Dsell, Morgrim).  If they were all telling the truth, then the town would consist of 3 mafia, 1 SK, 7 VTs, 1 Town Role Cop, and 1 other town power role.  That seems unbalanced in favor of the mafia, as Role Cop is a middling town power role - especially when there are so many VTs running around.  I think we have to operate under the assumption that Insomniac made a balanced town setup (if not, we're screwed anyway).  So, assuming a balanced setup, one of the 3 VT claims so far is most likely Mafia.  Hence, the suspicion of Morgrim.

[yuma]

Well I am back. My feelings about Morgrim haven't changed. In fact I am now more suspicious of him due to the weird O vote after I left the forum. But now that a size-able part of the town has started voting for him--including O who suggested to me that it was a bad idea to vote from him before--I will recast my vote

vote: Morgrim7

[yuma]

Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7

I'm just gonna throw this quote out there and see where it leads us...

I don't see the point of you quoting this quote...

I am glad I am not the only one who isn't understanding the purpose of this. And from what I can tell Dsell never addressed eHaylcon or me about why he posted it. Frankly, it seems like he was trying to distract the town from the building Morgrim suspicion. But either way, here is an explanation? of it. Again I am not sure what you are looking for.

I voted Morgrim early on because of his 1. weird comments throughout 2. he left off his cutsey style of play--the flavor journal posts--the moment he became suspicious. It was like he realized that disguise wasn't working so he abandoned it for another reason 3. his vote of def after CFrisk put some pressure on him.  This was the point that I voted for him. At the time CFrisk had also voted for him, because of the same reason and O had randomly generated him. I agreed with Frisk's assessment but not with O's voting reason. Hence my disclaimer. Is there something more you want to know? His posts have continued to be suspicious since then.

I left my Morgrim vote later that day because everyone else had left it and I was leaving town. I then voted for who I thought was second most likely to be mafia so that my vote could have some purpose. That was for J.

[Voltgloss]

Insomniac, could we have a vote count please?  Thanks.

[Insomniac]

Vote Count 3-1

Morgrim7 (4) - O, eHalcyon, Eevee, yuma
O (1) - Morgrim7

Not Voting (3) - DSell, Voltgloss, Axxle

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT