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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 156730 times)

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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1075 on: June 10, 2012, 03:19:45 pm »

I dont like mass claim at this point because if we only have one protection townie and mislynch we are guanteed to lose.  We already started but I'm pretty sure that one of the VTs are mafia.  7 VTs are a lot with an SK.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1076 on: June 10, 2012, 03:21:19 pm »

Do we know theres 3a mafia?  2 is still possible right? Let's not assume.  On phone and can only post quickly.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1077 on: June 10, 2012, 03:22:00 pm »

I vote no more claims, we have what we need. Either Dsell or Morgrim or both are mafia, add me in for those suspicious of my claim.

If Morgrim is VT and just crazy voted for me (and as I know I'm also VT...)



So yea, I'm pretty close to being ready to vote morgrim.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1078 on: June 10, 2012, 03:23:02 pm »

I think Morgrim is definitely the most likely of the three of us to be mafia. O for the reasons I listed above, and I listed my reasons in the post itself. Morgrim gave no evidence.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1079 on: June 10, 2012, 03:23:31 pm »

I'm certain that Insomniac posted somewhere that there are 3 mafia. Let me see if I can find it somewhere.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1080 on: June 10, 2012, 03:25:47 pm »

There are 3 Mafia.

I will not list the roles that are available but there is nothing too crazy I promise.

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch

(13) Everyone - Not Voting

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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1081 on: June 10, 2012, 04:30:28 pm »

On phone. I reiterate quickly that I suspect Morgrim7, then Dell. I trust O and Axxle.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1082 on: June 10, 2012, 04:36:04 pm »

Axxle -/- Morgrim

O -/- Morgrim

Yuma -/?- Morgrim

Voltgloss -?- Morgrim

eHalcyon -?- Morgrim

/ represents that it's extremely unlikely that these two could be mafia pairs (because of recent votes as well as strong suspicion)

? represents that one of these people has expressed very strong doubts about the other and I believe that it's very unlikely that the two could be a mafia pair. Yuma gets both because he voted for Morgrim but unvoted. Still unlikely but not completely impossible for them to be mafia partners.

This worries me because if Morgrim is mafia, this means that all of the others above are very likely to be town, but that's too many people when you include me. Either one of the others up there are mafia and sneakily hedging about Morgrim or Morgrim is town. This is uncomfortable for me.

Be gone for a while.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1083 on: June 10, 2012, 04:38:53 pm »

It's pretty clear one of two things is happening: Morgrim is being bussed, or Morgrim is town.

I think Morgrim was the pretty clear lynch choice so I find it more likely that he's being bussed.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1084 on: June 10, 2012, 05:02:32 pm »

It's pretty clear one of two things is happening: Morgrim is being bussed, or Morgrim is town.

I think Morgrim was the pretty clear lynch choice so I find it more likely that he's being bussed.

Agreed.  Morgrim-as-mafia puts his mafia partners in a tricky bind:  he (Morgrim) is the most likely suspect going into Day 3, and if they BOTH come to his defense (and fail) they put red flags on themselves for the next two Town days.  I am not surprised to see one potential scumpartner coming to Morgrim's defense - albeit obliquely (Dsell) - and the other scumpartner (whoever it is) voting/publicly suspecting Morgrim.  It's a way to take the town's temperature and see if bussing is necessary, without overtly revealing his scumpartners.  (Even Dsell, his biggest defender, has done so in a hedging, "it doesn't look good but he could be town"-kind of way that leaves him room to backpedal come Day 4 if/when Morgrim is lynched and flips mafia.)

I would like to hear further from Morgrim before voting, as if he has something further to say in his defense he should get that opportunity.  But if what he has to say isn't convincing to me - or if he goes AWOL for another 24 or so hours - then I will vote (barring some other dramatic event occurring, of course).
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1085 on: June 10, 2012, 05:07:58 pm »

apologies, i've been super busy (still am), just chiming in quickly to state my stance.

i find morgrim really suspicious / the most likely mafia (and btw see no reason to not trust axxle), but think we need to be very careful with our votes at this point.

morgrim, now would be a great time to defend yourself!

fake edit: voltgloss just posted this exact same thing, lol.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1086 on: June 10, 2012, 05:20:58 pm »

Will someone please make an orderly list about why you suspect me? That way I can make an orderly rebuttle.
And one more thing. If you must lynch me, go ahead. Keep in mind, though, that if you do lynch me, and the mafia kill someone, then the next day you cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1087 on: June 10, 2012, 05:23:38 pm »

Will someone please make an orderly list about why you suspect me? That way I can make an orderly rebuttle.
And one more thing. If you must lynch me, go ahead. Keep in mind, though, that if you do lynch me, and the mafia kill someone, then the next day you cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win.

If we lynch a townie, and the mafia kill someone, then the mafia win.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1088 on: June 10, 2012, 05:26:47 pm »

Will someone please make an orderly list about why you suspect me? That way I can make an orderly rebuttle.
And one more thing. If you must lynch me, go ahead. Keep in mind, though, that if you do lynch me, and the mafia kill someone, then the next day you cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win.

If we lynch a townie, and the mafia kill someone, then the mafia win.
But "if [we] lynch [Morgrim], and the mafia kill someone, then the next day we cannot make anymore mistakes or the mafia win." :)
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1089 on: June 10, 2012, 05:29:40 pm »

Alright. No time for Galzria-Style derails where people become unconvinced of the obvious.

Vote: Morgrim

I invite you townies and bussers to follow me.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #1090 on: June 10, 2012, 08:29:25 pm »

Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7

I'm just gonna throw this quote out there and see where it leads us...

I don't see the point of you quoting this quote...
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1091 on: June 10, 2012, 09:18:23 pm »

Alright. No time for Galzria-Style derails where people become unconvinced of the obvious.

Vote: Morgrim

I invite you townies and bussers to follow me.
Still waiting for my list to rebut…
Kind of find it odd that you are voting without presenting evidence.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1092 on: June 10, 2012, 09:43:22 pm »

Going over stuff I'd read earlier but didn't respond to due to being on the phone.
 
Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA

This is just odd.  I agree with Voltgloss' assessment that maybe Morgrim is just playing the crazy card.  My question is why Morgrim picks on O but not Dsell.  If Morgrim is lynched and flips Mafia, that is going to lead into some terrible WIFOM thinking.

@Voltgloss

Actually I think one of the biggest benefits of everyone claiming is that if we decide to do it the mafia would have to make some sort of claim to, which could be very helpful in performing a successful lynch. I wasn't gonna claim unless someone else did. I guess from a strategic standpoint I may prefer no lynch (to be determined later) but I am also fine with having stuff happen in this game and keeping it lively. If everyone roleclaims we can potentially figure out the best thing to do at night. But again, I think the best benefit is to make the mafia squirm. So for that reason, I'd be fine with mass claiming right now.

My thoughts on Morgrim: Really unsure. I think he's being crazy as usual, but that concerns me. It doesn't look good for him but I think there is still a real chance he is town. And even if he is mafia, there are two others. Lynching one of them may very well be the safer bet.

I don't see the benefit of massclaim at all.  At this point, I think it's doubtful that the Mafia would claim any power roles -- they will all claim Vanilla.



So of the people that are still alive, I trust O and Axxle and am convinced of Morgrim being scum.  I think this is the general town attitude as well now. I sincerely think that if any of these reads are wrong, we are screwed and the Mafia has played a brilliant game.

I can't really figure out Eevee, Voltgloss or yuma.  None of them have made a big impression on me.  Of these three, I'm least suspicious of Voltgloss.

I am very suspicious of Dsell.  Just a great deal of his posts feel far too hedgy to me.  It doesn't sit well with me at all.  He built a big strong case against Robz but since then he's been especially middle-ground.  Some odd things:

546: he tells Galzria not to panic about Robz getting lynched, and goes on to describe a scenario wherein four townies are killed as if it wouldn't be a big deal.

626: he posts about Eevee being a "professional poker player" and goes on to imply that maybe Eevee is Mafia playing us all, or maybe he's just a nice guy.  Just a very wishy-washy statement, though the general sense seems to be a defense of Eevee against Robz.

688: here he says that he could be convinced to vote for Eevee (again bringing up that "professional poker player" thing that just makes no sense to me as any sort of argument).  Again, the tone is very middle-ground.

823: his vote on Galzria is just so apologetic, as if it's already trying to make excuses for when Galzria turns up town (and I just remembered that Robz called out similar behaviour in his posts against him).

856: during twilight, after Galzria was lynched, he implores the town to consider who was FOR and AGAINST lynching Galzria.  It sounded to me like he was setting up suspicious against those who drove the wagon (myself and O, I guess?) even though it's usually less likely for Mafia to take such a bold stance.  The only person really against lynching Galzria, so far as I can remember, was Robz.  And the Mafia killed him that night.  Meanwhile, Dsell was safely in the middle ground.

And for other reference, some posts by Robz regarding/in response to Dsell: 338, 426, 471, 534, 558, 828.

I just wanted to get this stuff out there, in case I die tonight.

Anyway -- VOTE: MORGRIM.





For your reference, Morgrim... there have been several points brought up against you.  You've already responded to some, but they haven't been very convincing to me.  You can refer back to my post #1008.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1093 on: June 10, 2012, 09:53:02 pm »

Hey, did we ever actually discuss why michaeljb was NK'd?  Just looked back, and it doesn't seem like we did.

We've been caught up discussing Morgrim.  Aside from general recap posts, mjb hasn't really been mentioned.  The only post I can find is one of Axxle's, and he wasn't asking "why michael?" so much as "why not Morgrim?"

mjb's last post was #1011, and it was fairly substantial.  In that post, he lays suspicion on those who voted down Galzria who were still alive.  For reference, that list is: eHalcyon, O, jotheonah, Eevee, Dsell, Morgrim7.  mjb posited that at least one is Mafia, quite possibly two, maybe even all three.

I responded to his post with something of a defense.  Nobody else responded to it, but then Eevee hammered jo and we went into night.  And then mjb was dead, and his post was forgotten.

Thoughts?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1094 on: June 10, 2012, 10:01:50 pm »

Vote Count 3-1

Morgrim7 (3) - Axxle, O, eHalcyon
O (1) - Morgrim7

Not Voting (4) - DSell, Eevee, Voltgloss, yuma

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1095 on: June 10, 2012, 10:07:15 pm »

Morgrim, in addition to eHalcyon's post #1008, the case against you has most recently been buttressed by your vote against O.  See various players' responses - Dsell's #1069, my #1072, and eHalcyon's #1092.  Morgrim, I see you are presently online, and so will defer voting one more time to let you respond to these points.  If you have something further to say, now is most definitely the time we need to hear it.

eHal:  I think mjb may have been nightkilled, not just because of his post (which as you note voices suspicion at Morgrim along with others), but because he was the least suspicious among us.  I don't think he ever even voted for a confirmed townie (haven't checked this, but it's my recollection).  Can any of the rest of us remaining claim that?  (again, haven't checked)  I would expect the Mafia to nightkill the people they think they will have the hardest time getting lynched during the day, and someone who has never made a confirmed anti-town vote would seem to fall within that category.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1096 on: June 10, 2012, 10:07:54 pm »

i actually didnt realize i was hammering joh. i wouldnt have minded doing it - but i would have given ehalcyon a chance to make his post and stuff before voting.

michaeldb was probably NK'd just because he want being suspected at all? "kill someone they wont lynch tomorrow anyways". i cant think of any other implications at least. anyone else?

ive been checking in every three hours or so to see if morgrim has done anything to make me less sure he is scum... and he hasnt. the fact that he hasnt gotten enough votes yet makes me even more confident he is mafia so vote: morgrim.

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1097 on: June 10, 2012, 10:09:48 pm »

thiswouldbeaneditbutuh: i seem to be developing a habit of posting similar stuff at a similar time with voltgloss. well, i think his posts are generally good and smart so yay for that i guess. :)
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1098 on: June 10, 2012, 10:14:58 pm »

i actually didnt realize i was hammering joh. i wouldnt have minded doing it - but i would have given ehalcyon a chance to make his post and stuff before voting.

Do you mean Dsell?  I don't think I had any other post I wanted to make that day.  Dsell said he was going to name someone he thought should be investigated, but he didn't have the chance.  At the start of day 3, he named you. :P
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1099 on: June 10, 2012, 10:18:12 pm »

Morgrim these are the reasons:
1) You voted for Galzria "Knowing he's town." They will talk about this one true hedge to rule them all for generations to come. I will take into consideration that the deadline was coming and you may have panicked.
2) You lurked for the entirety of Day 2.  You have an explanation for that and your confusion as to what happens adds weight to the reason.  I will take that into account.
3) You accuse O with no explanation.
4) Your other voting habits haven't been the best.  I noticed you voted for O and J yesterday.  Your reasons for O were weak and you didn't add to the J conversation.
5) Without giving much additional explanation as to why people should vote for J, you tried scaring someone into the J vote by writing "Thirty Minutes."  It turns out it was 12 hours left, an honest mistake to make.
6) You were not killed on Night 2, when you could have very much been exonerated for being a role.  And mafia are trying to kill roles.  The only reason they know a role wouldn't pop up is if you're a Mafia Goon or a Mafia Godfather or if a Mafia Rolecop had previously checked you, which I very much doubt Night 1.
7ish) Notice how many times I've had to say "maybe it's a mistake" or "maybe you have an explanation"  THose are adding up.



I agree with eHalcyon that DSell's quote of yuma just seems really weird.  Some explanation would be very appreciated.

@eHalcyon: If Morgrim flipping mafia creates some terrible WIFOM, that's exactly what Mafia wants.  Mafia could all just claim Vanilla... but then we'd know they're the vanilla ones.  The bigger issue is protecting our protection roles. 

PEdit: @eHalcyon: I thought about asking it, but I thought that why not Morgrim got to the point of the question better.  I think mjb was just too town.  Maybe they hoped his pleas would get lost.  Maybe they wanted put up the front of hiding their tracks.  I have to say I don't like the idea of the Galz wagon and will have to go back and read it.

With Eevee's vote Morgrim is at L-1, be careful all.

Hmm... I'm going to unvote to let Morgrim answer, I really doubt he'll say anything to change my mind but I want to see what he has to say.  But I don't want someone like Eevee accidentally hammering prematurely (which is suspicious by the way)

Unvote
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