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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 156414 times)

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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1025 on: June 09, 2012, 01:22:18 pm »

I am SO sorry. I was just confused yesterday (in game) about how many were needed to lynch. I would have definitely responded after eHalcyon if I had realized there was just one more needed to hammer. I am curious to hear whether anyone else had any successful investigations. Anyway, I was going to say that someone should investigate Eevee. His positions on bandwagons seems opportunistic and his accusations of me right out the gate yesterday felt odd. They were harsh and out of place based on what I had already said and they were never brought up again after it looked like jo or Axxle would be lynched. Also, it is confirmed now that Robz was killed by the mafia at night, and while I maintain that it seems like an odd strategic move, it could make sense if they wanted to shut down suspicion of Eevee, who was his main (not only) target.

Also because jo flipped SK, we cannot be sure of Axxle's alignment. He could be a mafia rolecop just as easily as a townie. Also, I believe we are at a stage where we must lynch mafia to have a chance. If we lynch another townie and a townie is NK'ed, I think we are at even numbers and mafia wins.

You're right, Axxle isn't completely clear, but it still feels odd that he would make that claim if he wasn't, since it would be risking counterclaim.  Maybe he was mafia who caught jo and just really wanted him out of the way, but I find it very unlikely.

The thing is, why did the Mafia not kill Axxle?  The easy explanation is that he is indeed Mafia.  Another possibility is that they fear protective roles.  A third possibility is that the Mafia wants to cast suspicion on the cop during the day.

And for the record, I am currently most suspicious of Morgrim and you (Dsell).  Robz' main target was not just Eevee.  Check his post 471 -- he puts you and Eevee on the same level and only votes for Eevee because he already had a vote on him.  There are other reasons I am suspicious of you but I'll need some time to collect thoughts (and I'm going to be heading out in a little bit).
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1026 on: June 09, 2012, 04:26:56 pm »

I agree with you. I don't strongly suspect Axxle, just wanted to point out that he's not rock-solid town yet. I am also suspicious of Morgrim and wish we could hear from him. I'm really hoping that one of our roles besides Axxle had some success and just hasn't seen this yet.

And I would argue that Eevee was in fact Robz' main target for at least part of the time. Towards the end of the day, he was rallying to get Eevee lynched but not me. Another difference: Eevee jumped on the Robz bandwagon whereas I started it (at a time when there was absolutely zero suspicion of Robz). I'm not saying that Robz must be right because he was a townie and he's dead, he's completely wrong about suspecting me. But I think that in light of Eevee's opportunistic-looking voting and his "I'm a noob" attitude, he could have been on to something. Add to that Eevee comes out swinging against me day 2, and it makes me somewhat suspicious.

Also even though I really got a townie read day 1 on Voltgloss, I'm now less sure. Turns out his strong cases were against two non-mafias (he wouldn't have known jo was SK day 1). They were quite strong at the time, but I have to second guess now.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1027 on: June 09, 2012, 04:47:27 pm »

I also would like to remind everyone that I will be leaving for vacation on Friday, June 15. I will be back June 22. Sorry to miss some guys.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1028 on: June 09, 2012, 04:47:56 pm »

*Sorry to miss some mafia, guys.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1029 on: June 09, 2012, 05:28:36 pm »

Also even though I really got a townie read day 1 on Voltgloss, I'm now less sure. Turns out his strong cases were against two non-mafias (he wouldn't have known jo was SK day 1). They were quite strong at the time, but I have to second guess now.

True.  Also true that Dsell's strong cases Day 1 were against two non-mafia as well, both vanilla Town, one of which he helped lynch.  So I have to second guess Dsell as well.  Just like Robz was doing Day 1, before the Mafia killed him in the night.

In fact - am I right in recalling Robz was the biggest proponent of Dsell suspicion during Day 1?  If so, that may have something to do with why Robz was killed by the Mafia Night 1.

That all said, there is a Morgrim-shaped hole in this conversation that I think has to be filled before we can constructively debate today's action.  I see he hasn't logged into the forum since early yesterday (Friday) morning.  If he still hasn't posted by tomorrow (Sunday) morning, I'm thinking we will need to send him a prod.

Insomniac:  what is the lynch deadline?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1030 on: June 09, 2012, 06:46:55 pm »

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1031 on: June 09, 2012, 07:06:49 pm »

I agree with you. I don't strongly suspect Axxle, just wanted to point out that he's not rock-solid town yet. I am also suspicious of Morgrim and wish we could hear from him. I'm really hoping that one of our roles besides Axxle had some success and just hasn't seen this yet.

And I would argue that Eevee was in fact Robz' main target for at least part of the time. Towards the end of the day, he was rallying to get Eevee lynched but not me. Another difference: Eevee jumped on the Robz bandwagon whereas I started it (at a time when there was absolutely zero suspicion of Robz). I'm not saying that Robz must be right because he was a townie and he's dead, he's completely wrong about suspecting me. But I think that in light of Eevee's opportunistic-looking voting and his "I'm a noob" attitude, he could have been on to something. Add to that Eevee comes out swinging against me day 2, and it makes me somewhat suspicious.

Also even though I really got a townie read day 1 on Voltgloss, I'm now less sure. Turns out his strong cases were against two non-mafias (he wouldn't have known jo was SK day 1). They were quite strong at the time, but I have to second guess now.

Robz held both you and Eevee as suspicious and went after the latter because he already had a vote on him, whereas nobody else was suspicious of you at all.  You said Eevee came out swinging against you on day 2.  I went to find that quote, and here it is:

@Dsell
It really looks like you are trying to make everyone forget what happened between you and Robz yesterday. How does everyone else feel about Dsell's analysis that just starts "well, because I am town, ..."?? Seems to me like you are trying to make everyone assume that before anyone remembers to suspect you.

Too tired to start writing a longer post now.

First, that isn't exactly a major attack.  And Eevee has a point -- even now you are glossing over the fact that Robz was quite suspicious of you, instead focusing on what Robz had said against Eevee.  This isn't a new thing either.  Very early on day 2, you posted this:

[parts of this post snipped for brevity]

OK, so I guess a big question is why Robz?

That is my question too. It seems like a very odd choice because I was very suspicious of him (sorry Robz :( ), and I probably would have still been suspicious of him day 2. It could be to throw suspicion on Eevee, or it could even be that the mafia were worried about his strong suspicion of Eevee (i.e. Eevee is mafia).

And this:

I almost want to think they killed him because they thought he was a power role. He really doesn't seem like a great strategic choice. However, I think we should go on the assumption that there was strategic motivation because we don't get any information by assuming they were looking for a power role. It's possible the mafia is trying to confuse us.

I think that this kill should either make us much more or much less suspicious of Eevee. Yes, he had other suspects, but Eevee was who he was really gunning for. So either the mafia wanted to nip that suspicion in the bud (which seems like the obvious, not very sneaky play) or they want to validate his suspicions (which seems sneakier but perhaps more likely...I doubt we're working with "obvious" mafia). The first case would make Eevee mafia and the second case would make Eevee town. The mafia could have had other reasons though or they may have been really bluffing and want us to choose one of the above options.

I think all of the above should probably apply to myself to a lesser degree, as well as Voltgloss to an even lesser degree.

I think it's worth noting that you posted these before Eevee's post.  So if Eevee came out of the gates swinging for you, you did the same thing first.  Granted, you also mentioned the possiblity that they were throwing suspicion on Eevee, but your statements (especially recent) seem far more focused on Eevee being suspicious. 

I think it can be a bit misleading to focus solely on the votes.  I compiled the list because it's helpful, but it's important that we also look at the actual posts that were made as well.  On that front, I saw far more posts from you that felt off to me than I did from anyone else (other than Morgrim, who remains the most sketchy to me).  I'll have to go back and find those posts...
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1032 on: June 09, 2012, 08:25:07 pm »

Sorry people, have been gone for quite a while. But now I can post. By the way, the reason why I hammered Galz is because he had six votes and his looming death was being drawn out unnecessarily.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1033 on: June 09, 2012, 11:05:46 pm »

Sorry people, have been gone for quite a while. But now I can post. By the way, the reason why I hammered Galz is because he had six votes and his looming death was being drawn out unnecessarily.

Glad to hear from you.

You haven't answered questions about why you didn't comment on the Axxle Rolecop reveal when you apparently had been on the forum throughout that time period. Did you see the reveal?

I think the supposition that Galzria's death was imminent is debatable. I wasn't present during it, but form reviewing it there appeared to be some solid votes for him that were immovable, but I don't think it was certain.

OK, I can not take this anymore. Vote: Galzria even though I know you are town. Sorry Galz. Truly, I am.

The only way you could know someone is town is if you know who all the Mafia members are. The only people who know who all the Mafia members are, are the Mafia...

Please explain why you think lynching someone who you know is Town is better than 1. a no lynch or 2. letting someone else cast the hammer vote who isn't as sure about it.

In my eye casting the hammer vote on someone you know to be town is just as bad as self-lynching. Which you were opposed to.
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.

So either you didn't really know Galzria was town and just said that to play it make it seem like you didn't want the flack if he was town. Or you did really know and made a mistake and put it into your post.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1034 on: June 09, 2012, 11:08:39 pm »

In retrospect I think voting for someone you know to be town isn't always as bad as a self-lynch. And I don't want to get into the debate about whether or not self-lynching is bad. I think in this game we have decided it is.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1035 on: June 09, 2012, 11:12:11 pm »

Morgrim did you see my post before getting offline? You were on when I posted it, but now 3 minutes later you are gone? Coincidence?
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1036 on: June 10, 2012, 12:32:53 am »

Sorry people, have been gone for quite a while. But now I can post. By the way, the reason why I hammered Galz is because he had six votes and his looming death was being drawn out unnecessarily.

Glad to hear from you.

You haven't answered questions about why you didn't comment on the Axxle Rolecop reveal when you apparently had been on the forum throughout that time period. Did you see the reveal?

I think the supposition that Galzria's death was imminent is debatable. I wasn't present during it, but form reviewing it there appeared to be some solid votes for him that were immovable, but I don't think it was certain.

OK, I can not take this anymore. Vote: Galzria even though I know you are town. Sorry Galz. Truly, I am.

The only way you could know someone is town is if you know who all the Mafia members are. The only people who know who all the Mafia members are, are the Mafia...

Please explain why you think lynching someone who you know is Town is better than 1. a no lynch or 2. letting someone else cast the hammer vote who isn't as sure about it.

In my eye casting the hammer vote on someone you know to be town is just as bad as self-lynching. Which you were opposed to.
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.

So either you didn't really know Galzria was town and just said that to play it make it seem like you didn't want the flack if he was town. Or you did really know and made a mistake and put it into your post.
And now to the suspicions. First off, yes, this is the first time I have read your post.
-Yes, I saw the reveal. I am a vanilla TOWNIE. Oh, and, how do we know Axxle is a rolecop again?
-Yes, I believe that Galz's lynching was imminent. Very. Why delay the inevitable?
-No, I did not know Galz was town. That was an expression. But from the past two Mafia, the people who voted for themselves to avoid suspicion were town. Now the Mafia will do the same...
-(how did I know I would get nailed for hammering Galz) 1)It is better than a no lynch (see statistics from MII)
2)Let someone who was not sure about dropping the hammer drop the hammer was exactly what I was doing.
-
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1037 on: June 10, 2012, 01:29:29 am »

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

town roles also can lie and claim VT.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1038 on: June 10, 2012, 02:06:55 am »

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

town roles also can lie and claim VT.

What do you mean by this?  If we trust Axxle (and I do) then Morgrim is either VT or Mafia Goon.  Or Godfather?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1039 on: June 10, 2012, 02:13:12 am »

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

town roles also can lie and claim VT.

What do you mean by this?  If we trust Axxle (and I do) then Morgrim is either VT or Mafia Goon.  Or Godfather?

Was catching up sporadically and hadn't read Axxle's post..
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1040 on: June 10, 2012, 02:16:08 am »

And now to the suspicions. First off, yes, this is the first time I have read your post.
-Yes, I saw the reveal. I am a vanilla TOWNIE. Oh, and, how do we know Axxle is a rolecop again?
-Yes, I believe that Galz's lynching was imminent. Very. Why delay the inevitable?
-No, I did not know Galz was town. That was an expression. But from the past two Mafia, the people who voted for themselves to avoid suspicion were town. Now the Mafia will do the same...
-(how did I know I would get nailed for hammering Galz) 1)It is better than a no lynch (see statistics from MII)
2)Let someone who was not sure about dropping the hammer drop the hammer was exactly what I was doing.
-

What do you mean by the question of Axxle?  He claimed and there was no counterclaim, which is why I'm inclined to believe him.  If it turns out that he's Mafia and we had no cop at all, I will be extremely sad (and feel that the town was supremely underpowered).  If you have a case to make against Axxle, please make it.

Lynching townie is not better than no-lynch.  The stuff in MII was said by Robz and he was lying in that one!  Galzria made a case for it early in MIII but it doesn't account for SK or any protective roles we may have (not that they've been effective so far).

I am rather underwhelmed by your defense...

PPE @O -- OK, that makes sense.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1041 on: June 10, 2012, 03:59:48 am »

Also true that Dsell's strong cases Day 1 were against two non-mafia as well, both vanilla Town, one of which he helped lynch.  So I have to second guess Dsell as well.

This is almost true but I really didn't have two strong cases day 1. I had one very strong case (against Robz) and a very weak case. I fully admit that I bandwagoned on that one. It had become obvious to me that no one else was going to be lynched, and based on the cases put forward by others I thought there was a decent chance he was mafia. I thought the information we would get from lynching day 1 was important enough to take the risk that he was town.

Robz held both you and Eevee as suspicious and went after the latter because he already had a vote on him, whereas nobody else was suspicious of you at all.  You said Eevee came out swinging against you on day 2.  I went to find that quote, and here it is:

@Dsell
It really looks like you are trying to make everyone forget what happened between you and Robz yesterday. How does everyone else feel about Dsell's analysis that just starts "well, because I am town, ..."?? Seems to me like you are trying to make everyone assume that before anyone remembers to suspect you.

Too tired to start writing a longer post now.

First, that isn't exactly a major attack.  And Eevee has a point -- even now you are glossing over the fact that Robz was quite suspicious of you, instead focusing on what Robz had said against Eevee.  This isn't a new thing either.  Very early on day 2, you posted this:

[parts of this post snipped for brevity]

OK, so I guess a big question is why Robz?

That is my question too. It seems like a very odd choice because I was very suspicious of him (sorry Robz :( ), and I probably would have still been suspicious of him day 2. It could be to throw suspicion on Eevee, or it could even be that the mafia were worried about his strong suspicion of Eevee (i.e. Eevee is mafia).

And this:

I almost want to think they killed him because they thought he was a power role. He really doesn't seem like a great strategic choice. However, I think we should go on the assumption that there was strategic motivation because we don't get any information by assuming they were looking for a power role. It's possible the mafia is trying to confuse us.

I think that this kill should either make us much more or much less suspicious of Eevee. Yes, he had other suspects, but Eevee was who he was really gunning for. So either the mafia wanted to nip that suspicion in the bud (which seems like the obvious, not very sneaky play) or they want to validate his suspicions (which seems sneakier but perhaps more likely...I doubt we're working with "obvious" mafia). The first case would make Eevee mafia and the second case would make Eevee town. The mafia could have had other reasons though or they may have been really bluffing and want us to choose one of the above options.

I think all of the above should probably apply to myself to a lesser degree, as well as Voltgloss to an even lesser degree.

I think it's worth noting that you posted these before Eevee's post.  So if Eevee came out of the gates swinging for you, you did the same thing first.  Granted, you also mentioned the possiblity that they were throwing suspicion on Eevee, but your statements (especially recent) seem far more focused on Eevee being suspicious. 

In this case, I was truly unsure of whether this should make Eevee more suspicious or less. I did not intend to make a case against him, it was only afterwards when you posted the voting summary that I saw opportunism there. Furthermore, it's unfair to compare what I said about Eevee and what he said about me. I was pointing out that the mafia kill should make us either more or less suspicious about him. I stand by that. He accused me of doing something that I did not do (try to cover up the fact that Robz was suspicious of me) to make me look more suspicious.

I'm not sure what to say about Morgrim. He seems slightly suspicious to me but not overly so. Whoever we lynch, we must be extremely careful and take our time. We are in a must-not-lynch-town situation if the town can win. With 8 people left and 3 mafia a lynch of townie plus NK gives the mafia a win.

So here's the breakdown for me of everyone left:

Confirmed town:
Galzria
Robz
Captain_Frisk
Michaeljb
Dsell

Serial Killer:
Jotheonah

3 of the following are mafia:
O
eHalcyon
Morgrim
Yuma
Axxle
Voltgloss
Eevee

I know the above to be true, but that list will look different for the rest of you because 4 of you can't know that I'm town. For those 4 others of you who are town please take the time to make the right decision today.
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1042 on: June 10, 2012, 04:08:03 am »

Also, I am less suspicious of both O and Axxle (but I'm by no means sure of their townness). O because he gave himself a 50/50 shot at getting killed and Axxle because he has had no counterclaims and led to the lynching of the SK.

I do not want to advocate this yet but I am potentially ok with no lynch today to give our roles another night to work. It would give us another day to gather information. The only way we have any chance to win (basically, I guess a jailer could get lucky and jail the mafia who performs the NK) is if we lynch mafia. Lynching town today or day 4 means we lose.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1043 on: June 10, 2012, 04:12:56 am »

a misslynch then a town-role saving isn't game over I believe.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1044 on: June 10, 2012, 04:22:56 am »

a misslynch then a town-role saving isn't game over I believe.

Yes, this is correct. So either blocking the mafia kill or a PR saving the targeted townie would get us to day 4 after a mislynch.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1045 on: June 10, 2012, 12:17:03 pm »

Thoughts on Morgrim: I told the mafia I would be investigating Morgrim.  Why not kill him?  If he was a town role it would exonerate him, why kill michael instead?  Morgrim would just as likely be a town role, unless Mafia also has a rolecop and checked Morgrim (I see no reason why they would).

Vote: Morgrim
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1046 on: June 10, 2012, 12:17:59 pm »

a misslynch then a town-role saving isn't game over I believe.
Are we that close to losing? Can I see the math? I'd do it myself but I'm a bit busy this morning.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1047 on: June 10, 2012, 12:54:12 pm »

Quote from: Morgrim7
-Yes, I saw the reveal. I am a vanilla TOWNIE. Oh, and, how do we know Axxle is a rolecop again?
But why didn't you comment on it?
Quote from: Morgrim7
-Yes, I believe that Galz's lynching was imminent. Very. Why delay the inevitable?
-No, I did not know Galz was town. That was an expression.
This sounds like hedging... You want everyone to think that you thought he was town, but voted for him, so that when he turned up town you could say, "see, I told you was town" and hope everyone forgot that you voted for him.
Quote from: Morgrim7
1)It is better than a no lynch (see statistics from MII)
No, this was disputed again and again in this game. But again I don't want another argument about this. Your other strange behaviors are more important than this.
Quote from: Morgrim7
2)Let someone who was not sure about dropping the hammer drop the hammer was exactly what I was doing.
And now we are looking heavily at you...

I am agreeing with Axxle, who is looking more and more like a cop as time passes.

I have been suspicious of Morgrim all game. He has failed again and again to address my suspicions instead allowing others to make the crazy claim for him. Is there anyone out there still convinced about that?

Vote: Morgrim7
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Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1048 on: June 10, 2012, 01:31:45 pm »

@Axxle

There are 8 of us left, including 3 mafia.

5 townies  ---  3 mafia

-1 townie (mislynch)
-1 townie (NK, unless mafia is jailed or the right townie is protected)

3 townies  ---  3 mafia

Mafia wins.
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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars NIGHT 2
« Reply #1049 on: June 10, 2012, 01:34:41 pm »

Isn't voting highly dangerous in MILO?
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