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[eHalcyon]

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.

Well, I put the first vote on Galzria.  Granted, there had been a lot of suspicion building up before then... but I'm sad to say that I got turned around.  When I looked back on old posts, I realized that I actually thought Galz's case against jo was pretty strong.  But then I was gone for much of the weekend and I remembered it as weak.  Shameful.



Post by person coming in a bit.

[eHalcyon]

By person.  The reasons given are the same as the previous post. 

(Stray observation: Robz voted once and stuck by it all the way to the end.  Wow.)

Captain_Frisk
191: CFrisk votes for Galzria (1), citing high post count.
251: CFrisk unvotes Galzria (0) and votes for Morgrim (2), partially agreeing with O's randomness but also because Morgrim's posts have been suspicious unsubstantial, as if wanting to maintain appearance of activity.
314: CFrisk unvotes Morgrim (2); now considers that Morgrim is more unorthodox than scummy.
332: CFrisk votes for jotheonah (1) because he had been "ok with killing a bad townie".
393: CFrisk unvotes jotheonah (0) and votes for Robz (2), saying that he had been "hiding from this game" and seemed opposed to casting votes and moving forward.
783: CFrisk unvotes Robz (1) and votes for Galzria (6) on the basis of his self-vote.

Dsell
341: Dsell votes for Robz (1) because he has been playing the middle ground, the very thing Robz had warned of.
823: Dsell votes for Galzria (6) after a lot of hedging kind of talk.  This implicitly unvotes Robz (0).

Eevee
192: Eevee votes for yuma (1), citing low post count.
229: Eevee unvotes yuma (0).  No longer finds yuma suspicious.
458: Eevee votes for Robz (3) following Dsell's analysis that his activity seems similar to Mafia II.
776: Eevee votes for Galzria (5) for the same reason as O, thus implicitly unvoting Robz (2).

eHalcyon
354: eHalcyon votes for O (2) because he said he would have self-hammered.
456: eHalcyon unvotes O (0) after O explains his self-lynch idea.
744: eHalcyon votes for Galzria (1) due to increasingly odd behaviour, suddenly turning on Robz.

Galzria
299: Galzria votes for O (3) because he is "being purposefully unhelpful and blind to simple logic and reasoning".
321: Galzria unvotes O (1) as O now appears to be helpful.
457: Galzria votes for jotheonah (1) and actually does give many reasons for it, but many of these are discarded as weak or else somehow forgotten.
625: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (3) because jo probably won't be lynched after his role claim.
648: Galzria votes for jotheonah (4) again, at Voltgloss' request.
728: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (2) and votes for Robz (4) due to Dsell's persuasion that he may have read Robz wrong.
765: Galzria unvotes Robz (3) and votes for himself (4).
788: Galzria unvotes himself (5) due to comments against self-lynching.
791: Galzria votes for jotheonah (3) once more.

jotheonah
285: jotheonah votes for O (1) because O is OK with random lynch and has been "getting annoying".
310: jotheonah unvotes O (2), saying he doesn't want to leave his vote on O overnight.
493: jotheonah votes for def (1), saying that the mafia are probably among those who have not voted and are angling for no lynch.
532: jotheonah unvotes for def (0) and votes for Robz (5) because the existing case is strong and Robz is unconvincing.
676: jotheonah unvotes Robz (3) and votes for Eevee (3) due to O's suggestion for surviving.
764: jotheonah unvotes Eevee (1) and votes for Galzria (3) with a relatively long post about how he became more suspicious.

michaeljb
195: michaeljb votes for yuma (2), saying he wants to generate talk.
210: michaeljb unvotes yuma (1) after yuma responds.
503: michaeljb votes for jotheonah (3) based on on-going discussion and analysis.
706: michaeljb unvotes jotheonah (3) following his role claim.

Morgrim7
254: Morgrim randomly votes for def (1), though randomness is not verifiable.  He says he felt pressured to vote because there were already 2 votes on him (in #261).
275: Morgrim unvotes def (0), now convinced that random voting is bad town play.
297: Morgrim votes for O (2) because he continues to support random voting.
397: Morgrim unvotes O (1) because he will be absent in the next few days.
582: Morgrim votes for jotheonah (5) based on the existing case.
844: Morgrim votes for Galzria (7) even though he says he thinks Galz is town.  This implicitly unvotes jotheonah (2).

O
207: O votes for Morgrim (1) by random chance.
452: O unvotes and votes for Eevee (1) , apparently because Eevee insulted him.
762: O unvotes Eevee (2) and votes for Galzria (2) after Galzria says it is better to mislynch than no lynch.

Robz888
471: Robz votes for Eevee (2) after voicing high suspicion of Eevee and Dsell and choosing Eevee since he already had a vote on him.

Voltgloss
523: Voltgloss votes for Robz (4) with a pretty strong case in that post.  Later reveals that this was an "experiment".
569: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (4) due to the results of an "experiment" (described in #575).  This implicitly unvotes Robz (4).
597: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after his role claim, so that he can speak the next morning.
649: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (5) again, after Galzria revotes.
698: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after jotheonah's specific role claim -- he can be investigated in the night.

yuma
263: yuma votes for Morgrim (3) in response to his odd behaviour and CFrisk's arguments.
502: yuma unvotes Morgrim (0) and votes for jotheonah (2) due to his extreme defensiveness against Galzria's vote and his apparently deflective vote on def.

[Axxle]

@DSell: Remember, once we lynch J we won't know what he flips until after the thread is locked.  Be sure to suggest before that.

[Dsell]

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.

Well, I put the first vote on Galzria.  Granted, there had been a lot of suspicion building up before then... but I'm sad to say that I got turned around.  When I looked back on old posts, I realized that I actually thought Galz's case against jo was pretty strong.  But then I was gone for much of the weekend and I remembered it as weak.  Shameful.



Post by person coming in a bit.

I actually never thought Galz' case against jo was that strong, but I think that may have been a weakness of my perception rather than a weakness of his argument. What I look for, expect, and try to act out as town is really pro-town behavior. I didn't really buy into Galz' "I'm cool with looking pretty suspicious because that only makes me look like town" argument for myself. But then, I guess that is what got him into hot water.

I think when you made the argument against Galz, you kind of put down what we were all thinking. I still suspected Robz a lot more but that lynch was looking less and less possible and we had that deadline. Well, I was wrong on both counts. I should have trusted my instinct that there would not be enough townies around to perform a last-minute all-townie lynch on mafia. As it is, I am frustrated that we lost 3 townies but glad they were all vanilla and I'm grateful for the information we got from it. Right now, that's looking like a lot.

[Dsell]

@DSell: Remember, once we lynch J we won't know what he flips until after the thread is locked.  Be sure to suggest before that.

Yes, I'm hoping that the actual lynch happens while I'm online (which is a lot...) so I'll be able to catch it. I just think it's a little safer to wait until things are looking a little more certain. I feel like we have plenty of information to lynch right now and this info is not immediately pertinent. So I want to give as little to the mafia as possible right now.

[eHalcyon]

VOTE: jotheonah

That puts us at 5, I think?

Is that close enough for you, Dsell?

I have major suspicions of someone as well, but I want to hear yours first because (no offense) I find you a bit suspicious as well.  You seem like you want to be everyone's friend, but in a very non-committal way.

[Dsell]

VOTE: jotheonah

That puts us at 5, I think?

Is that close enough for you, Dsell?

I have major suspicions of someone as well, but I want to hear yours first because (no offense) I find you a bit suspicious as well.  You seem like you want to be everyone's friend, but in a very non-committal way.

I completely understand the suspicion of me. If I didn't know I was town and looked at your chart/list I would be suspicious of me too. But no, I think I want to hold off a bit longer. Ideally 7 or at least 6 votes for jo, or a promise of a vote. I don't want this person to come in and be able to tell us everything that we want to hear; I would rather an investigation be based on just the facts. Of course this person should have a chance to defend themselves before we lynch them but for an investigation, I don't see why they should be able to deflect that idea in length. Ultimately it will be up to the investigator, though. We may have different ideas of who to investigate.

[O]

The only people online in the MIII game are the people that voted already for J. Lynch tonight looks unlikely..

[eHalcyon]

Well, I'll just put mine up anyway.

I'm highly suspicious of Morgrim now.

- His first vote is random, despite criticism of O's random vote.
- After he unvotes in the face of randomness backlash, he joins the crowd calling O out.
- He jumps on the jotheonah bandwagon without offering any reason of his own (just that others have already made a good case).
- At the very end, he hammers Galzria while saying that he believes Galz is town.

That last point is a clincher, IMO.  The other thing is that I feel as though he's floated through all the discussion without offering anything of his own.  His early posts were journal entries.  When he was called out on his non-contribution, he votes randomly, then turns on that and criticizes O for voting randomly.

After his initial unvote of O (for which he never actually gave a satisfactory reason -- he says because he would be gone, but O was no longer in danger), he pretty much flies under the radar until he pops in to jump on the jo bandwagon.

And following that he is pretty much dark until the end.  Aside from his hammer on Galzria (which was a really bad play since, according to him, he thought Galz was town), the only other comments from him that I thought were noteworthy were a couple on page 32:

Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster.

Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!

Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.

I find these comments extremely odd.  Galzria was already in danger of getting lynched.  If he thought Galz was innocent, why didn't he speak up with a real defense?  Similarly, when Galz was one away, his comment is devoid of content.

And then he hammers Galz.

So... can all this be explained away by mere oddball behaviour?  Maybe.  I mean, he also hammered someone he knew to be town in his other game (that being himself).

Still, I find it suspicious.

I'd be happy if Morgrim would defend himself.  He really needs to speak up more.

[Dsell]

eHalcyon, one slight issue with your list. My vote for Galz and C_F's vote for Galz are both listed as vote 6. I was actually vote 7.

[eHalcyon]

eHalcyon, one slight issue with your list. My vote for Galz and C_F's vote for Galz are both listed as vote 6. I was actually vote 7.

No, my numbers are by the number of votes on someone at that time.  Between CF's vote and your vote, Galzria unvoted himself.

If you were the seventh, it would have ended right there.

[michaeljb]

Ok, so, when I started writing this, the last post I saw was Insomniac's #990, then the forum crashed, then I was away from my computer where this was saved, and now I don't have time to catch up on what's new or stay on in case anyone responds right away or something. I'll be back on hopefully tomorrow, but I'll probably be pretty busy with homework. Now that that intro/disclaimer thingie is out of the way...

[When I started writing, didn't expect this post to get this long, sorry 'bout that.]

Galzria went from 0 votes to lynched in just under 3.5 hours, I just don't see that being done with absolutely no mafia push. So I'm inclined to look at those voters who are still alive (eHalcyon, O, jotheonah, Eevee, Dsell, Morgrim7). I'm confident there has to be at least one mafia in that group, and I think it's fairly likely two of them are mafia, and it's possible that all three are mafia, but that seems unlikely to me.

The people who are saying the right thing to do is kill me either way are right. But I have some additional information that might change that.

I lied when I said I was a One-Shot Vigilante.  I'm actually just a Vigilante. I can choose to nightkill every night to help the town.  But I thought that if I claimed it as a one-shot, I could use it and then the mafia wouldn't target me, because they would think I was now just a Vanilla. Then later on, when we really needed the power, I could use it.

But the mafia rolecop must have investigated me and discovered the truth. That's why Axxle is so desperate to kill me today, during the day. The mafia can't afford for me to survive into the night.

Now that Axxle has made his claims, jotheonah is changing his own roleclaim, and explaining his plan for how to use his kills pretty much matches the scenario I thought of if he were SK (and I think described by someone else, don't remember for sure though)--he claims power town to save his skin one day, then doesn't use his kill for a night a two, then kills some more.

As for this: "when we really needed the power, I could use it." Well it didn't take much persusasion to get him to use it here, so in that scenario it seems the mafia would have a good chance at influencing who he ended up killing.

Now on the other hand, I definitely don't want to rule out the possible that Axxle is actually a Mafia Rolecop, but…well it just feels like the likeliest thing is that Axxle is what he says he is. Of course if jotheonah gets lynched and flips town, it's pretty much a done deal that Axxle is mafia. Or maybe he's the lyncher and jotheonah is his lynchee? Continuing to think about the possibilities that exist because this is a closed game is probably just going to make me crazy…

Anyway, jotheonah feels most scummy to me and what I think of Axxle pretty much depends on what happens with jotheonah.

Other people that voted for Galzria…
Well I'm still suspicious of Morgrim, I'd like to hear from him. Especially why he brought the hammer down, even when he was sure that Galzria was town. How could he be sure Galzria was town? And why would he then hammer him? Morgrim being mafia answers both questions, though perhaps a bit obviously. (And to address the possibility that automatically suspecting the hammer is a fallacy, just re-read my question with "vote" instead of "hammer")

eHalcyon, O, MrEevee, Dsell…I don't feel that I have a whole lot to say about any of these, certainly none of them are as suspicious to me as jotheonah and morgrim.

[Dsell]

Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster.

Saying nothing about the rest of your analysis, this quote was actually a reference to M II, in which either Morgrim or Galzria said they believed the other to be too nice to be mafia (because he was a fellow solo challenge hoster). It was semi-joking at least, but the other person kinda jumped down their throat for saying that. It's a repeat of the same joke in a somewhat more ironic circumstance.

[Dsell]

eHalcyon, one slight issue with your list. My vote for Galz and C_F's vote for Galz are both listed as vote 6. I was actually vote 7.

No, my numbers are by the number of votes on someone at that time.  Between CF's vote and your vote, Galzria unvoted himself.

If you were the seventh, it would have ended right there.

Ooooh you're right sorry. I was thinking Mafia IV numbers. I knew I was the penultimate vote, and I saw that he was the vote before me.

[eHalcyon]

Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster.

Saying nothing about the rest of your analysis, this quote was actually a reference to M II, in which either Morgrim or Galzria said they believed the other to be too nice to be mafia (because he was a fellow solo challenge hoster). It was semi-joking at least, but the other person kinda jumped down their throat for saying that. It's a repeat of the same joke in a somewhat more ironic circumstance.

But that doesn't change the point -- when Galz was on the cusp of getting lynched, Morgrim jokes about it instead of making a defense for him.  That looks odd considering his next posts, especially casting the final vote.

And yeah, it's a fallacy to go after the hammer, but I think less so when he does it while saying the target is innocent.


@michaeljb -- In defense of myself, I cast the very first vote on Galzria (early game votes notwithstanding).  If I were Mafia it would have been far better to jump on one of the existing wagons or just keeping waiting things out.  Keep in mind that when I cast my vote, Robz was at 4 and Eevee at 3.  Without assuming any other roles, we know Robz was town and I could have pushed that without too much trouble.

I'm inclined to trust O, assuming jo is not Mafia.  O suggested that jo kill either him and CFrisk at random.  He risked himself, and that just wouldn't be worth it if he was Mafia.  But if jo flips Mafia then I have no idea.

[eHalcyon]

Anyway, I think I'm out for the night.

[Axxle]

Going to sleep, and will be missing for much of tomorrow due to E3, but I'll say some quick thoughts on who I should investigate:

Morgrim is the most suspicious due to voting habits.  I don't want to judge him on the hammer though since you guys were really in panic mode because of the deadline.  If J flips SK I'll investigate him.

Eevee and J were slightly too buddy/buddy.  If he flips Mafia I'll investigate him.

[Eevee]

Eevee and J were slightly too buddy/buddy.  If he flips Mafia I'll investigate him.

Dont remember this happening, maybe provide some quotes?

Vote: jotheonah, as I mentioned earlier the only reason I didnt do this earlier was to give possible counterclaims time to come up if they were going to.

[Voltgloss]

Just woke up, just caught up...

...and I see we're already at 6.  And Morgrim never chimed in all day. 

Though according to his profile he was online yesterday at around 2 p.m. EDT, so if he checked here before logging off he would have at least seen Axxle's claim.

Time to see how J flips. 

[Insomniac]

The screams from the two that died on day 2 still haunt you. You keep hearing it over and over again wondering who would do such things. Axxle points at jotheonah and says HE DID IT. In a hectic frenzy Axxle joined by yuma, O, DSell, eHalcyon and Eevee quickly pick him up and throw him into the river near your shelter. As you throw him into the river you remove his coat so you can check your allegations. A quick investigation shows a piece of paper, huh looks like he was from this shelter after all, you pick up the coat to be sure and give it a good shake. Falling from the left breast pocket emerges a bloody knife with jotheonah engraved on the hilt.

jotheonah, the serial killer  is dead.

Night 2 has begun. Night 2 will complete in 48 hours and Day 3 will begin at roughly 8:00am PDT June 9, 2012. Players with night actions have until that time to PM me their night actions

Thread locked

[Insomniac]

BEEP BEEP BEEP. The every day alarm goes off at 6am in the morning determined to ruin your perfectly good sleep. Feeling a little groggy and very hungry, (it's been almost a full 2 days since anyone gave you a twig to eat) you get the feeling something is wrong. You start to make your way towards the river from which you beg and you see a crowd gathering. In the center of the crowd you see a dead body what else is new right, ever since Insomniac died beggars keep turning up dead. You decide to see who it is. You make out the body of michaeljb. In disbelief you search his body for clues, (or twigs, MAN you're hungry, you've heard of a land far off thats better off with waffles, well not better off when compared to places that are much better off but better off than this shelter). You find his shelter card on this inside of his torn pants, he is indeed from your shelter.

michaeljb the vanilla townie is dead.

Day 3 has begun

[Axxle]

Morgrim is Vanilla.  Which means he could be a Vanilla Townie, Mafia Goon, Mafia Godfather, or something else that hides from investigative roles.

[Voltgloss]

I would really like to hear Morgrim's response to the reasons-for-suspicion leveled against him during Day 2.  And I'll add on top of those a question that's been gnawing at me:  Morgrim, why did you give absolutely NO reaction to Axxle's roleclaim?  (I have to assume Morgrim saw it, as he was on-line here after Axxle made his claim post.)

[yuma]

Wow, feels like ages since I last posted here... With so many vanilla townies already dead (Galz, Rob, CFrisk and now Michaeljb) what are the chances that Morgrim is also vanilla town? It is growing more and more likely that he isn't with each passing death.

I really want to hear from Morgrim to explain his absence during all of yesterday, but at the moment he is on my suspicion list--and has been from the beginning of the game.

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim, frankly just about everyone else is on this list at this point, but he is the highest
Not suspicious: none
Vote: none

pre-edit: Voltgloss beat me to the post, and I agree with his post and his request to Morgrim

[Dsell]

I am SO sorry. I was just confused yesterday (in game) about how many were needed to lynch. I would have definitely responded after eHalcyon if I had realized there was just one more needed to hammer. I am curious to hear whether anyone else had any successful investigations. Anyway, I was going to say that someone should investigate Eevee. His positions on bandwagons seems opportunistic and his accusations of me right out the gate yesterday felt odd. They were harsh and out of place based on what I had already said and they were never brought up again after it looked like jo or Axxle would be lynched. Also, it is confirmed now that Robz was killed by the mafia at night, and while I maintain that it seems like an odd strategic move, it could make sense if they wanted to shut down suspicion of Eevee, who was his main (not only) target.

Also because jo flipped SK, we cannot be sure of Axxle's alignment. He could be a mafia rolecop just as easily as a townie. Also, I believe we are at a stage where we must lynch mafia to have a chance. If we lynch another townie and a townie is NK'ed, I think we are at even numbers and mafia wins.