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[eHalcyon]

Not voting until morgrim and ehalcyon post something (in case we get more roleclaims or something crazy like that) but EVERYTHING is pointing to joh now so I'm having a hard time imagining a scenario where I would change my mind. Still, we gain nothing by hurrying to the night without giving everyone a chance to chime in.

I'm here.  Trying to wrap my head around the new situation.

Currently everyone is siding with Axxle against jo, so the case against him is fairly well covered.  Can we get a walk through of the situation where Axxle is lying?  Here's my take:

- If he is lying, he is trading his own survival for jo's.  In general, this 1:1 trade is probably worse for the Mafia.  They could have waited to see what way the town was leaning before pulling off such a move.  They may have been able to get another townie killed without sacrificing one of their own.  Therefore I am inclined to believe Axxle.

- If Axxle is lying and we lynch vigilante jo, then the status is that 3/9 remaining players are Mafia.  If the night kill is successful, 3/8.  Then we would lynch Axxle, so 2/7, then night kill so 2/6.  Is this good?  I legitimately do not know.

- If jo is SK, is it better that we lynch him or keep him around?  His days are numbered anyway.  Even if he were trying to target Mafia specifically it is still statistically more likely for him to hit more town.  Therefore jo is probably a safer first lynch than Axxle.

- For the purpose of thinking through all possible scenarios... what if Axxle and jo are both Mafia and this is a ploy to sacrifice one in exchange for town trust?  Would that be a viable Mafia strategy?  It would be suspicious if Axxle survived the night, but of course we don't know what protective roles are out there.  If he wishes not to divulge more information to help the town, it looks like he was jailed.  If he has something to say, well maybe we have a doctor.  I find this scenario extremely unlikely though.

Is "hidden SK" the only possible explanation for jo turning up as "no role"?

[Axxle]

I'll try to go back to Day 1 and see if he supported anyone too much or anyone supported him too much or if he looked more of a loner.

Sorry Axxle, I thought from this quote that you were looking at who supported J as well.  I'm happy to dig into this but it won't be until this evening (EDT).

I was going to, but realized I couldn't.  Sorry for the confusion.

[Axxle]

Is "hidden SK" the only possible explanation for jo turning up as "no role"?

He can also be a Mafia without a role or hidden role, maybe a Goon or Godfather.

[Axxle]

He's probably SK though since it would be too risky for Mafia to declare Vigilante, NK someone, and wake up with only one person dead.  Although I guess that they could attribute it to a heal role.

[eHalcyon]

Is "hidden SK" the only possible explanation for jo turning up as "no role"?

He can also be a Mafia without a role or hidden role, maybe a Goon or Godfather.

Plain Mafia would read as "no role"?  I thought Goons would still turn up as Goons.

[Axxle]

No, they're basically Vanilla Mafia:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_Cop
"There is no indication of the target's alignment; if a Mafia Goon is investigated, they return "Vanilla". "

[eHalcyon]

No, they're basically Vanilla Mafia:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Role_Cop
"There is no indication of the target's alignment; if a Mafia Goon is investigated, they return "Vanilla". "

Well that's unfortunate.

But the presence of two night kills suggests that he is SK, right?

Is there any reason not to lynch a SK?  The main one is that we could try to get an actual Mafia and hope that SK gets another one in the night.  but likewise, Mafia can try to sway the lynch towards a townie and they'll get another town kill at night, plus the possibility of SK killing a third townie.  Leaving SK in play would be dangerous to both sides, but probably more dangerous for the town.

[Voltgloss]

He's probably SK though since it would be too risky for Mafia to declare Vigilante, NK someone, and wake up with only one person dead.  Although I guess that they could attribute it to a heal role.

Or he could have simply said he didn't use his power.  Reading J's posts during the twilight, I didn't see any final public commitment one way or the other as to whether he was going to nightkill.  (He originally said "I won't do it," then there was the coinflip discussion started by O, suggesting maybe he would do it, but J was asking questions about how it would look to the town, and... the discussion was left hanging open and unresolved when Insomniac locked the thread.)

[eHalcyon]

I didn't really see him talk about many positively, lots of defense, attacks on O and Galz. He immediately retracts accusation of Galz though, convinced he is town.  There was an instance of defense of Eevee Post #489 ("Promising Town").  A jab at def (me) and others that post in the middle ground.  Accusing O and Robz of colluding against Eevee.  other things. eventually votes Eevee?

When did he retract accusation of Galz?  I couldn't find that. 

In #764 he switches his vote from Eevee to Galzria, stating that he didn't actually suspect Eevee while his suspicion has grown on Galz.  I believe he was the third vote on the wagon, after me and O, though he may have been writing that post before O voted.

[Voltgloss]

I didn't really see him talk about many positively, lots of defense, attacks on O and Galz. He immediately retracts accusation of Galz though, convinced he is town.  There was an instance of defense of Eevee Post #489 ("Promising Town").  A jab at def (me) and others that post in the middle ground.  Accusing O and Robz of colluding against Eevee.  other things. eventually votes Eevee?

When did he retract accusation of Galz?  I couldn't find that.

Axxle is talking about #491.  But yeah, you're right that at the end of the day, J's vote switched from Eevee to Galz and was one of the 7 pushing him into a lynch.

[O]

I'll try to go back to Day 1 and see if he supported anyone too much or anyone supported him too much or if he looked more of a loner.

I supported him. I said we had investigative roles to find out his allegiance, and oh look, we did.

[yuma]

So the only one that hasn't been spotted yet is Morgrim? Although it appears he was last active at Today at 12:19:33 pm according to his page. So I wonder if he has seen the latest developments or not...

I am not suggesting we hurry a lynch up. We need to make sure we are going through the right steps and all, but we do need to think about the next step since we don't know how long of a twilight we will have.

If Axxle is cop, we need to find a way to keep him alive through the night. Since we don't know what roles are out there--and we wouldn't want a Doc or Jail to claim anyways--I don't know if there is much we can do other than to say if jots does end up being SK or Mafia we need to protect Axxle if possible. (help a newbie out... A jailed cop can or can't investigate?) Are there other protective roles out there?

I haven't done status for a while:

Suspicious: Morgrim (still) jotheonah, Axxle if jot flips town
Not suspicious:
Vote: jotheonah

[O]

Jailed cop cannot investigate.

[eHalcyon]

(help a newbie out... A jailed cop can or can't investigate?) Are there other protective roles out there?

Jailed is protected but also roleblocked.  The plus side of jailing the cop is that it denies a Mafia kill if the Mafia target him in the night.

I also find Morgrim suspicious.  I'm ready to vote for jo but am waiting in case there is any more discussion to be had.  What's the current vote count?

[yuma]

I think 4. Axxle, yuma, O and Dsell

[Insomniac]

I think 4. Axxle, yuma, O and Dsell

This is correct and ordered as I would have ordered it

[jotheonah]

so. forum crashed a little there, eh?

[O]

so. forum crashed a little there, eh?

just a bit.

[Dsell]

- For the purpose of thinking through all possible scenarios... what if Axxle and jo are both Mafia and this is a ploy to sacrifice one in exchange for town trust?  Would that be a viable Mafia strategy?  It would be suspicious if Axxle survived the night, but of course we don't know what protective roles are out there.

I think this is very unlikely, but I think we can cross that bridge when we come to it. I think if we take out mafia here (jo or reverting to Axxle if jo is not) we will have some solid information and a direction for our power roles. I think we have a shot at winning.

[eHalcyon]

I was curious about who voted for whom and why.  I went through and compiled the votes from day 1.  A number is attached to each vote indicating which vote number it is for that target, e.g. Bob (3) means this is the third vote for Bob.  A number is also attached to each unvote, indicating the number of votes remaining AFTER the unvote, so if "Bob unvotes Joe (2)" that means that there are still 2 votes left on Joe, not counting Bob.

Please let me know if I missed anything or got anything wrong.  Here it is in chronological order.  I'm going to pull this out by person and put that in a different post.

Page 8
191: CFrisk votes for Galzria (1), citing high post count.
192: Eevee votes for yuma (1), citing low post count.
195: michaeljb votes for yuma (2), saying he wants to generate talk.

Page 9
207: O votes for Morgrim (1) by random chance.
210: michaeljb unvotes yuma (1) after yuma responds.

Page 10
229: Eevee unvotes yuma (0).  No longer finds yuma suspicious.

Page 11
251: CFrisk unvotes Galzria (0) and votes for Morgrim (2), partially agreeing with O's randomness but also because Morgrim's posts have been suspicious unsubstantial, as if wanting to maintain appearance of activity.
254: Morgrim randomly votes for def (1), though randomness is not verifiable.  He says he felt pressured to vote because there were already 2 votes on him (in #261).
263: yuma votes for Morgrim (3) in response to his odd behaviour and CFrisk's arguments.

Page 12
275: Morgrim unvotes def (0), now convinced that random voting is bad town play.
285: jotheonah votes for O (1) because O is OK with random lynch and has been "getting annoying".
297: Morgrim votes for O (2) because he continues to support random voting.
299: Galzria votes for O (3) because he is "being purposefully unhelpful and blind to simple logic and reasoning".

Page 13
310: jotheonah unvotes O (2), saying he doesn't want to leave his vote on O overnight.
314: CFrisk unvotes Morgrim (2); now considers that Morgrim is more unorthodox than scummy.
321: Galzria unvotes O (1) as O now appears to be helpful.

Page 14
332: CFrisk votes for jotheonah (1) because he had been "ok with killing a bad townie".
341: Dsell votes for Robz (1) because he has been playing the middle ground, the very thing Robz had warned of.

Page 15
354: eHalcyon votes for O (4) because he said he would have self-hammered.

Page 16
393: CFrisk unvotes jotheonah (0) and votes for Robz (2), saying that he had been "hiding from this game" and seemed opposed to casting votes and moving forward.
397: Morgrim unvotes O (1) because he will be absent in the next few days.

Page 19
452: O unvotes and votes for Eevee (1) , apparently because Eevee insulted him.
456: eHalcyon unvotes O (0) after O explains his self-lynch idea.
457: Galzria votes for jotheonah (1) and actually does give many reasons for it, but many of these are discarded as weak or else somehow forgotten.
458: Eevee votes for Robz (3) following Dsell's analysis that his activity seems similar to Mafia II.
471: Robz votes for Eevee (2) after voicing high suspicion of Eevee and Dsell and choosing Eevee since he already had a vote on him.

Page 20
493: jotheonah votes for def (1), saying that the mafia are probably among those who have not voted and are angling for no lynch.

Page 21
502: yuma unvotes Morgrim (0) and votes for jotheonah (2) due to his extreme defensiveness against Galzria's vote and his apparently deflective vote on def.
503: michaeljb votes for jotheonah (3) based on on-going discussion and analysis.
523: Voltgloss votes for Robz (4) with a pretty strong case in that post.  Later reveals that this was an "experiment".

Page 22
532: jotheonah unvotes for def (0) and votes for Robz (5) because the existing case is strong and Robz is unconvincing.

Page 23
569: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (4) due to the results of an "experiment" (described in #575).  This implicitly unvotes Robz (4).

Page 24
582: Morgrim votes for jotheonah (5) based on the existing case.
597: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after his role claim, so that he can speak the next morning.

Page 26
625: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (3) because jo probably won't be lynched after his role claim.
648: Galzria votes for jotheonah (4) again, at Voltgloss' request.
649: Voltgloss votes for jotheonah (5) again, after Galzria revotes.

Page 28
676: jotheonah unvotes Robz (3) and votes for Eevee (3) due to O's suggestion for surviving.
698: Voltgloss unvotes jotheonah (4) after jotheonah's specific role claim -- he can be investigated in the night.

Page 29
706: michaeljb unvotes jotheonah (3) following his role claim.

Page 30
728: Galzria unvotes jotheonah (2) and votes for Robz (4) due to Dsell's persuasion that he may have read Robz wrong.
744: eHalcyon votes for Galzria (1) due to increasingly odd behaviour, suddenly turning on Robz.

Page 31
762: O unvotes Eevee (2) and votes for Galzria (2) after Galzria says it is better to mislynch than no lynch.
764: jotheonah unvotes Eevee (1) and votes for Galzria (3) with a relatively long post about how he became more suspicious.
765: Galzria unvotes Robz (3) and votes for himself (4).

Page 32
776: Eevee votes for Galzria (5) for the same reason as O, thus implicitly unvoting Robz (2).
783: CFrisk unvotes Robz (1) and votes for Galzria (6) on the basis of his self-vote.
788: Galzria unvotes himself (5) due to comments against self-lynching.
791: Galzria votes for jotheonah (3) once more.

Page 33
823: Dsell votes for Galzria (6) after a lot of hedging kind of talk.  This implicitly unvotes Robz (0).

Page 34
844: Morgrim votes for Galzria (7) even though he says he thinks Galz is town.  This implicitly unvotes jotheonah (2).

[eHalcyon]

Page 15
354: eHalcyon votes for O (4 2) because he said he would have self-hammered.

Found a mistake.  When I voted for O, I was the second vote, not the fourth.  A couple had already unvoted.

[Dsell]

eHalcyon, that is actually very helpful. I think I have a good idea of who a possible cop should investigate after jo is lynched.

[Dsell]

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

[O]

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.

[Dsell]

But I don't think I'll reveal until jo's lynch has happened or is virtually certain.

Me! I pushed for Galzria's lynch, worked hard to keep J alive day one and now threw him under the bus. I've had better games.

I think if we judge solely on day 1 I think we've all had better games (As a figure of speech anyway. This was my first forum mafia game). But no, you were wrong and you were frustrating at times but my suspicions lie elsewhere.