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[Voltgloss]

Here I am preparing a Galzria-length tome on the issues involving jotheonah, and Axxle drops this bomb.

Well.  I will give jotheonah a chance to respond to Axxle before I vote, but this seems pretty damning.  If jotheonah is anti-town, he had every reason to devise a fake roleclaim when it looked like his head was nearing the chopping block.  I'm not immediately seeing any reason why Axxle/def would fakeclaim in this manner under these circumstances.  [By which I mean: if Axxle/def were Mafia, I don't see a need for him to go to such lengths so fast.  There was plenty of reason for the Town to still suspect jotheonah without the Mafia having to go so far as fakeclaiming.]

[Side note:  def's having an investigative role helps put his Day 1 behavior in context, at least up until he actually disappeared.  Didn't he make some comment about not wanting to act without concrete information?  I'll have to go back and check, but if so, his having a role that could GET such information puts that comment in a much more sensible light.]

[jotheonah]

Well, this IS unexpected.

I am telling the truth about my role, so I can see two possibilities:

1) Axxle is telling the truth and I read as a Vanilla Townie. Since I'm effectively a Vanilla Townie once I use my kill, the game set up could be set up so that I read that way, too. That seems unlikely to me, but it's possible?

2) Axxle is a very bold mafia, banking on us not having a cop AND a vig.

If Axxle is really a cop, I question the value of his claiming this early without even attempting to get me lynched by some other means. I was one of the most adamant Galzria voters and I vig-killed a townie in the night. I have a role that no longer gives me powers or a reason to be kept alive.  A real cop could have at least attempted to get me lynched on evidence, thus keeping his identity a secret for another day.

On the other hand, this is actually a win-win move for a mafia, bold as it is. If he doesn't get counterclaimed, we (well, you all) believe him. If he DOES get counterclaimed, he's succeeded in outing our cop on Day 2.

[yuma]

1) Axxle is telling the truth and I read as a Vanilla Townie. Since I'm effectively a Vanilla Townie once I use my kill, the game set up could be set up so that I read that way, too. That seems unlikely to me, but it's possible?

Insomniac is this something we can get confirmed. If a VG one-shot, or a one-shot anything, uses the power do they then appear as Town Vanilla? Or is this something else that we are going to be left in the dark about?

[Insomniac]

1) Axxle is telling the truth and I read as a Vanilla Townie. Since I'm effectively a Vanilla Townie once I use my kill, the game set up could be set up so that I read that way, too. That seems unlikely to me, but it's possible?

Insomniac is this something we can get confirmed. If a VG one-shot, or a one-shot anything, uses the power do they then appear as Town Vanilla? Or is this something else that we are going to be left in the dark about?

Since any amount of digging on the mafia scum wiki will give you the answer, the answer is
"Generally speaking, a Role Cop investigating an X-Shot role will receive the full original role title (e.g. "Two-Shot Vigilante") regardless of how many of those shots have been used."

VOTE COUNT 2-2

jotheonah (1) - Axxle
Not voting (9) - O, Dsell, Morgrim7, Eevee, michaeljb, jotheonah, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch


The deadline is June 13, 2012 11:59pm

[Voltgloss]

[Side note:  def's having an investigative role helps put his Day 1 behavior in context, at least up until he actually disappeared.  Didn't he make some comment about not wanting to act without concrete information?  I'll have to go back and check, but if so, his having a role that could GET such information puts that comment in a much more sensible light.]

I have to retract this side note.  I dug back through the thread and found the post I was thinking of - def's #329 - but it didn't say what I vaguely remembered it saying.  My error, and I apologize.

[yuma]

Insomniac's answer gives me enough reason to vote (cool site by the way at mafiascm, I hadn't heard of it)

I now vote:jotheonah

 

[Voltgloss]

I am waiting to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle before placing my vote. 

[jotheonah]

I am waiting to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle before placing my vote.

Maybe they shouldn't though. I've used my power up. Is my life worth outing our actual cop?
A counterclaim would be great for me personally. But it would NOT be good for the town. Axxle's duplicity will be revealed when I flip Vig. The only way to foil his mafia gambit completely is for our real cop to remain hidden for now.

And if Axxle were the actual cop, his out-of-the-gate role claim is not good for the town. This is a very questionable play for an actual cop, without even attempting first to get me lynched without the role claim. In my mind it makes MUCH MORE SENSE as a mafia move.

[Voltgloss]

I am waiting to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle before placing my vote.

Maybe they shouldn't though. I've used my power up. Is my life worth outing our actual cop?
A counterclaim would be great for me personally. But it would NOT be good for the town. Axxle's duplicity will be revealed when I flip Vig. The only way to foil his mafia gambit completely is for our real cop to remain hidden for now.

I'm not saying that I think a town cop necessarily should counterclaim Axxle.  I think whether to do so or not will depend heavily on what information said cop discovered during Night 1. 

What I'm saying is that I don't want to vote until everyone has had an opportunity to counterclaim Axxle and either did or did not take such opportunity.  I can't see how it benefits the Town for a subset of us to ratchet up to 6 votes before the remaining players have had an opportunity to weigh in - particularly if one of those remaining players would have had good reason to counterclaim.

[Axxle]

If I was lying about being a cop I wouldn't have used up the lie on J, who supposedly would now be a Vanilla Town if he was telling the truth.  I wouldn't even get a role lynch before I die.

[Axxle]

This is a very questionable play for an actual cop, without even attempting first to get me lynched without the role claim.

I am not confident enough in my mafia skills to do that.

[jotheonah]

If I was lying about being a cop I wouldn't have used up the lie on J, who supposedly would now be a Vanilla Town if he was telling the truth.  I wouldn't even get a role lynch before I die.

But your partner would once the counterclaim turned up. And if you ARE the cop (which you're not) the mafia will get one tonight.

With 3 town already dead and 3 mafia in our ranks (with us NO CLOSER to catching them) I'm sure they're feeling plenty confident.

[Eevee]

This looks pretty simple then (for once). Cant see any reason whatsoever for Axxle to lie here.

I'm going to delay voting though, just to give us more time to discuss stuff (also just in case someone counterclaims or we get any other new info).

[michaeljb]

Well the possibility jotheonah being SK was definitely present in my mind. Claiming a townie power role (especially one that will look the same as SK--at first, anyway) proved to be really good cover for the first day, and definitely accomplished the goal of surviving. He also was very careful to have his reasoning backing up his choice of target no matter what the target ended up being. Also it seems like with role claiming one-shot vig gives him the opportunity to kill the first night, then lay low the next night or two before killing again.

Axxle's roleclaim, along with Insomniac's confirmation definitely points to jotheonah being SK, but I think I want even a bit more clarification; Insomniac mentioned a bit of looking on mafiascum will find the answer for the earlier question, but I haven't found this answer yet: For role-investigative purposes, does Serial Killer count as a faction or a role? Intuitively to me it seems like a Role Cop investigating Serial Killer should get Serial Killer as the result, unless the Serial Killer is considered something like the one normal member of the Serial Killer faction. [pre-post edit] Just glanced back at Axxle's post, mentioning that SK in this game could be a variant with protection from role checks--definitely possible with this closed game format. Guess that makes my question less useful than I thought it was.

I'm inclined to believe Axxle--probably because I had been considering the possibility that jotheonah was SK, combined with the fact that a fake claim from a mafia Axxle doesn't really make sense to me. OTOH I do have to agree with jotheonah's argument that trying to get him lynched first seems like a better play than roleclaiming right at the start of the day...but then, with mafia and a serial killer, 2 townies can get killed off every night, so if we have a way to knock that number down to 1, doing so is pretty urgent, maybe urgent enough to get it out there right away.

So, leaning towards voting jotheonah, but like Volt mentioned I think it's a good idea to hear from everyone before voting.

[Axxle]

For role-investigative purposes, does Serial Killer count as a faction or a role? Intuitively to me it seems like a Role Cop investigating Serial Killer should get Serial Killer as the result, unless the Serial Killer is considered something like the one normal member of the Serial Killer faction. [pre-post edit] Just glanced back at Axxle's post, mentioning that SK in this game could be a variant with protection from role checks--definitely possible with this closed game format. Guess that makes my question less useful than I thought it was.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Serial_killer
"Serial Killers have also been seen with investigation immunity like Godfathers, or Tracker/Watcher immunity like Ninja."
So actually he might be a Godfather too.

[jotheonah]

Let's explore this theoretical "I'm the serial killer" thing. So I claim the most obvious role claim, just hoping nobody counterclaims. And then I win the town's trust with my kill. And then I just hope no one investigates me. And then I masquerade through Day 2 as a helpful townie and ... then what? Either I never use my night kill again (which makes it very difficult for me to win) or I start using it and you guys (who are not dumb) immediately realize the gambit. It's a terrible plan. The SK is not playing to survive day to day. He has no allies. He has to survive ALL GAME. You should know better than to trust an easy answer.

[O]

Vote: Jotheonah

It's pretty clear that this is the right move regardless.

[Axxle]

Let's explore this theoretical "I'm the serial killer" thing. So I claim the most obvious role claim, just hoping nobody counterclaims. And then I win the town's trust with my kill. And then I just hope no one investigates me. And then I masquerade through Day 2 as a helpful townie and ... then what? Either I never use my night kill again (which makes it very difficult for me to win) or I start using it and you guys (who are not dumb) immediately realize the gambit. It's a terrible plan. The SK is not playing to survive day to day. He has no allies. He has to survive ALL GAME. You should know better than to trust an easy answer.

Ok, I have no answer for that.  All I know is that my result was "No Role".

[yuma]

Let's explore this theoretical "I'm the serial killer" thing. So I claim the most obvious role claim, just hoping nobody counterclaims. And then I win the town's trust with my kill. And then I just hope no one investigates me. And then I masquerade through Day 2 as a helpful townie and ... then what? Either I never use my night kill again (which makes it very difficult for me to win) or I start using it and you guys (who are not dumb) immediately realize the gambit. It's a terrible plan. The SK is not playing to survive day to day. He has no allies. He has to survive ALL GAME. You should know better than to trust an easy answer.

Ok, I have no answer for that.  All I know is that my result was "No Role".

Ok I am mostly thinking out loud (right I know I am typing, sheesh).

I didn't realize that Axxle's query came back "no role". I don't know if that changes things.
In what scenarios would jot come back "no role"

1. He didn't and Axxle is lying.
2. He was jailed, so couldn't be investigated? But that means he couldn't have been the VT because his kill would not have worked, so that would mean jot was lying about killing Frisk--doesn't make sense.
3. Is there another role that stops the Cop from investigating and gives back a no role to him no matter who he investigates?
4. He is SK. Here it is surprising. In setting up the game I would think that to be "hidden" the response would have to be Vanilla Townie for him to blend in. Giving "no role" is just as obvious as "serial killer or something else menacing"
5. I don't know.

I agree with O, this seems like the appropriate move and I am going to keep my vote but would like to hear from others.

[Dsell]

This one seems pretty straightforward to me.

Lynch jo ---> If he flips mafia yay, if he flips town ---> Lynch Axxle because he's mafia. (And if he somehow flips town, we'll exhume insomniac and lynch him again for screwing the town!)

This seems like the right move whether jo ends up being serial killer or mafia. Also adding to the idea that he's mafia is Galz' lynch yesterday. That bandwagon should be some reeeally good information for us if/when jo turns out to be mafia.

Vote: jotheonah

[Axxle]

2. He was jailed, so couldn't be investigated? But that means he couldn't have been the VT because his kill would not have worked, so that would mean jot was lying about killing Frisk--doesn't make sense.
3. Is there another role that stops the Cop from investigating and gives back a no role to him no matter who he investigates?

I'm pretty sure I would have gotten a "No result" in either of these cases instead of "No role".

I actually just remembered this role, but I think that Voltgloss stated that he was uncomfortable using it in his first modded game:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bus_Driver

[Axxle]

.
It's questions like that that make me want to not use Bus Drivers in my first game.   

[Dsell]

Wait wait wait.

Unvote

But two people did die overnight. What does that mean? I definitely think that Serial Killer would come up as a role (confirmation on that though?), so if he has no role and he's not Serial Killer, why did C_F die last night, and why did jo take credit for him? Could this mean that another mafia is a mafia-vigilante-equivalent? Actually that would be a really good cover for jo but it also seems crazy powerful unless it's a one-shot. Thoughts?

[O]

@Dsell: Mafia Kill captain frisk to cover for J, SK is out there somewhere. J is a normal mafia.

Also, SK sometimes get investigate-vanilla buffs.

[Dsell]

Ok that's reasonable enough. I see no situation in which neither of jo and Axxle is mafia.

Vote: jotheonah

And actually Robz makes a tiiiny bit more sense if he's a SK target I think in that...well it really doesn't make much sense.