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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 151797 times)

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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #275 on: May 30, 2012, 08:23:00 pm »

So as to not ensue more unhelpful town play, and to discourage random voting henceforth (I see now why it is a bad idea[now do not jump on me here]), I have decided to Unvote.
O, Robz's voting off a hunch is no better than voting randomly. In fact, it is worse. Here is a list of assets for both.
Voting off a hunch:
-You can get useful information about that person.
-You can get useful information about the people that defend this person.
-Unless the person is Mafia, you most likely wont get jumped on by many people.

Voting Randomly:
-Well, you wont get info out of them; they wont respond. After all, the vote is random.
-Well, you might get jumped on for being 'willingly unhelpful'. Wait, this was supposed to be a list of assets.
-Your vote will be about as random as the normal lynch will be, so it is faster. Wait, faster? So cutting off good time to get info out of people is beneficial?
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #276 on: May 30, 2012, 08:29:12 pm »

O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #277 on: May 30, 2012, 08:34:31 pm »

O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.
If you can back up your 'hunch' with some evidence, go ahead.
Suspicious: O
Not Suspicious: Nobody
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #278 on: May 30, 2012, 08:40:19 pm »

O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.

So, this is problematic to me. No lynch is bad for the town because of (complicated maths)? Or is it bad because it gives the mafia a free kill? Or because it gives the town no information? Or all of those reasons?

But whatever, no lynch is anti-town. Which makes it pro-mafia (or so it has been argued).

AND YET.

Clearly a random lynch is good for the mafia.  If I'm mafia and the town agrees to all pick a single number, run a random number generator, and vote for the person it lands on, I say "Let's do it!" Because the odds are very much in my favor. So a random lynch is pro-Mafia.

So it seems like on Day 1, both lynching and not-lynching is pro-Mafia. How does that work?

The only thing that's actually pro-town at this point is lynching mafia, which of course is impossible to do with any certainty unless the mob screws up.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #279 on: May 30, 2012, 08:40:33 pm »

So if I understand, O wants to random number generator the game. Because if you do round 1, you might as well round 2, and round 3, and...

You are completely wrong to think no information can be gained from following actual instincts. If you've ever played Poker online you would know this. Tells exist here as much as they do face-to-face. You can't just play a formula and win.

btw, there is a higher percentage of town with 10 of 13 than with 8 of 11. 8 of 11 is better than 6 of 9, and so forth. It is better to lynch than not lynch, but it is NOT better to lynch randomly than to lynch on instinct and information.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #280 on: May 30, 2012, 08:41:00 pm »

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.

But the thing is, framing it as a hunch is better. There is literally no reason to respond to an accusation from a random number generator. There's really not any way TO respond. But if someone is noticing something peculiar in the way someone else is posting, accusing that person based on actual suspicions does merit a response, which gives us information. So even if you randomly pick someone and invent a reason for being suspicious of them, as long as it seems legitimate enough to merit a response you WILL get information from their defense. I'm of course not saying you should frame your random accusations that way nor am I saying that Robz' accusations are random and framed. Rather, I think Robz has some feeling for the game from playing a bit more. But still, saying that random voting gives us the same amount of information as votes based on "suspicious" behavior is just wrong. And it does seem like you are kinda unwilling to see this point.

Pre-post edit: Sorta ninja'd but oh well.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #281 on: May 30, 2012, 08:48:30 pm »

And yet I've spiked conversation.
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #282 on: May 30, 2012, 08:55:17 pm »

O, you have not been defending yourself. If you wish to soften suspicion, please explain why you continue to support random voting.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #283 on: May 30, 2012, 08:56:11 pm »

The true random voting--names out of a hat or number generator--is unhelpful because it doesn't generate discussion over the accusation. And I still say it is less likely to hit a mafia than hunch and evidence-based voting, but maybe only slightly less likely. Still, we are going to need these conversations to look back on next round and really start figuring things out.

For that reason, the true random voting is bad/unhelpful town behavior. So I was asking these bad/unhelpful town players to defend themselves. It doesn't mean I actually think they're mafia. I personally toss accusations around but reserve actual voting for the person I have settled on.

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #284 on: May 30, 2012, 09:00:14 pm »

O, you have not been defending yourself. If you wish to soften suspicion, please explain why you continue to support random voting.

I don't feel the need to defend myself. You accused me because I accused you, and I still see it unlikely that I need to be lynched.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #285 on: May 30, 2012, 09:07:30 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #286 on: May 30, 2012, 09:08:20 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

Actually it's a pretty terrible fallback plan, since it involves recursive logic. "Killing randomly is terrible strategic, so O is a bad townie. If we can't determine a mafia member we should randomly kill a townie that we have no real suspicions of because he's a bad townie"

See what you did there?  ;)
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #287 on: May 30, 2012, 09:10:43 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

I'm not OK with someone I know to be town being lynched.  ;) But of course you have no real evidence that I'm not, so my defense is nearly as pointless as your argument.

And if we're lynching "bad" people, lets go look at Mafia II and lynch Jonatheoh, Robz or Galzria: They're all either bad townies or excellent Mafia, and both are frightening concepts.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #288 on: May 30, 2012, 09:12:09 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

Actually it's a pretty terrible fallback plan, since it involves recursive logic. "Killing randomly is terrible strategic, so O is a bad townie. If we can't determine a mafia member we should randomly kill a townie that we have no real suspicions of because he's a bad townie"

See what you did there?  ;)

Except that you're the one who stuck the second "randomly" in there, to make it sound recursive. All Robz and I are talking about is killing a bad townie. So we don't have to deal with them later. Of course, killing a Mafia is still preferable.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #289 on: May 30, 2012, 09:13:59 pm »


(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

I'm not OK with someone I know to be town being lynched.  ;) But of course you have no real evidence that I'm not, so my defense is nearly as pointless as your argument.

And if we're lynching "bad" people, lets go look at Mafia II and lynch Jonatheoh, Robz or Galzria: They're all either bad townies or excellent Mafia, and both are frightening concepts.

Oh, yeah go ahead and leave out Volt. O and Volt are clearly mafia partners ;)

Honestly, you sort of make a good point there, but I at least am going to try hard to be less terrible this game.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #290 on: May 30, 2012, 09:16:04 pm »

*checks first page*
*notices volt is in this game*

my apologies, I didn't remember because he hasn't posted recently enough  :P Problems of a 13 player mafia game.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #291 on: May 30, 2012, 09:21:39 pm »

I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #292 on: May 30, 2012, 09:25:17 pm »

Do I need to take it seriously J?

Otherwise I suspect Theory for changing the fact that posts in Mafia games don't count towards your forum posts.... AFTER I up'd to a very undesirable rank of Duke. It's premeditated!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #293 on: May 30, 2012, 09:27:32 pm »

Do I need to take it seriously J?

Otherwise I suspect Theory for changing the fact that posts in Mafia games don't count towards your forum posts.... AFTER I up'd to a very undesirable rank of Duke. It's premeditated!

Why won't you seriously accuse someone? You're denying us of information and discussion by not responding seriously! You should be lynched!!!

Yes I'm joking, but not really. You aren't being any better than I.


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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #294 on: May 30, 2012, 09:29:01 pm »

On the flip side, I would toss up between O, for reasons stated in earlier posts. Maybe V for being active when it's convenient. And possibly you for making me do such a silly exercise.

I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #295 on: May 30, 2012, 09:30:24 pm »


I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #296 on: May 30, 2012, 09:32:11 pm »


I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 

So you say. And most likely, you're probably half right. We'll likely hit town. But we'll be better off day 2 than having hit town via a random number generator.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #297 on: May 30, 2012, 09:34:31 pm »

*sigh*
I would vote for O.
In fact, hmmm...
Vote: O.
Why? For the reasons posted above. A few being:
-He insists on playing  strategy that i detrimental to th team and beneficial to the mafia.
-He has not defended his view.
-
I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #298 on: May 30, 2012, 09:35:07 pm »


I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 

So you say. And most likely, you're probably half right. We'll likely hit town. But we'll be better off day 2 than having hit town via a random number generator.

Except we won't be.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #299 on: May 30, 2012, 09:39:39 pm »

I'm honestly I'm the same boat at this point M. He's being purposefully unhelpful and blind to simple logic and reasoning. He wants to play this game in a generator, and the town losses that way. There's not much more I can say. Mafia or Town, of he's unwilling to help town win, I would rather not have him, because he's as good as Mafia at that point.

VOTE: O
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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