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Author Topic: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)  (Read 151131 times)

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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #300 on: May 30, 2012, 09:40:00 pm »

*sigh*
I would vote for O.
In fact, hmmm...
Vote: O.
Why? For the reasons posted above. A few being:
-He insists on playing  strategy that i detrimental to th team and beneficial to the mafia.
-He has not defended his view.
-
I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying
Wow that is riddled with typos. playing a strategy
that is detrimental
to the team.
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #301 on: May 30, 2012, 09:43:18 pm »

He wants to play the game in a generator

for the first day. If you really think I play generator style the entire game, look at Mafia I. Oh wait, you just are happy someone whose not you is being lynched.

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #302 on: May 30, 2012, 09:49:42 pm »

If Volt would like to jump on me too, that'd be perfect. Then everyone that has made II the disaster that it is would be coalescing around me  ;)

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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #303 on: May 30, 2012, 09:49:54 pm »

He wants to play the game in a generator

for the first day. If you really think I play generator style the entire game, look at Mafia I. Oh wait, you just are happy someone whose not you is being lynched.

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

And once again with no defense of how day 2 starts any different than day 1 if you lynched randomly day 1 and now have NOTHING to base an argument on. If you randomly pick day 1, then you MIGHT AS WELL randomly pick day 2. You'll be no closer to winning when dawn arises.

As for Mafia-I, I won't talk about it as a) it's not over, and b) not everybody has or should be required to read it. Suffice to say though, your success was in no way driven by your "random" aproach, but instead by the efforts and methods of others to draw out real information.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #304 on: May 30, 2012, 09:50:46 pm »

Well the thing is I really wasn't very suspicious of O when I wrote the response to his post, I was more frustrated with his unwillingness to move past pure randomness. Since that I have become both more and less suspicious with him but ATM he's seeming town to me.

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

But I think I would actually vote for Robz888 because he seems to be really trying hard to blend in during this game. I know that he's involved with all three other forum games but even when he has posted he has seemingly lacked conviction. Except for the mafia, we're all pretty much in the dark here. Yet it looks to me like he is intentionally trying only to fit in while not adding terribly much. This seems a little out of place and thus a little suspicious.
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #305 on: May 30, 2012, 09:52:39 pm »

your success was in no way driven by your "random" aproach, but instead by the efforts and methods of others to draw out real information.

Now you're just trying to provoke me  ;). Don't worry, I'll ignore your baseless claim.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #306 on: May 30, 2012, 09:57:15 pm »

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

I don't understand this sentence.  Force the mafia to vote randomly?  While that's not as optimal for them as picking their targets, the likely result is still in their favour:

1. There are far more Town than Mafia, so random is more likely to hit Town.
2. If people all vote randomly it is unlikely any one person will receive 7 votes.  That means no lynch, free night kill for Mafia.
3. Random voting gives no useful information to the town.  The accuser does not have motive or suspicion, nor does he need it.  The accused has no defense.

Your second statement ("by not voting randomly") is what we want to do.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #307 on: May 30, 2012, 10:06:58 pm »

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (3) - O, Captain Frisk, yuma
O (3) - Morgrim7, Galzria, jotheonah

Not Voting (7) - Robz, def, Dsell, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, eHalcyon
« Last Edit: May 30, 2012, 10:19:10 pm by Insomniac »
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Morgrim7

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #308 on: May 30, 2012, 10:10:57 pm »

jotheonah voted for O
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"Oh sweet merciful heavens.

I sit here, lost amongst the cloud, that which is the brain of the Morgrim Mod. Perhaps I will learn the inner workings of that storied mind. Perhaps I will simply go mad.

Mad, I tell you.

Maaaaaaaaaaaaad." -Voltgloss
Dominion Notation: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7265.msg206246#msg206246

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #309 on: May 30, 2012, 10:19:00 pm »

jotheonah voted for O

I had missed that thanks
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #310 on: May 30, 2012, 10:32:31 pm »

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #311 on: May 30, 2012, 10:35:39 pm »

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #312 on: May 30, 2012, 10:36:43 pm »

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

I'm too cautious for my own good.  It's going to look like hedging, eh?  Against an early deadline, I'd probably vote for either Morgrim or O, due to the random voting.  However, I'm not convinced either are the Mafia either.  I expect that the actual spies will be talking a bit but not getting into any actual confrontations.  Hum.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #313 on: May 30, 2012, 10:42:17 pm »

I am going to ask a question. Can we put the kibosh on references to Mafia II--or I for that matter. Many of us aren't involved in that and frankly don't have the time to go read through 20+ pages to understand what you are talking about there. From my understanding this is supposed to be a separate game, so from this point onward I am going to ignore any reference to another Mafia game because I don't have the time to do the research to back up any claim.

I am off to an early bed. I am leaving my vote as it stands for Morgrim7. Because of his response to Captain_Frisk's vote. His explanation for why he reacted that way isn't good enough for me.

And this is exactly what I'm referring to - you've posted... but have done so with no substance.  You hint that the vote for def is random, but there's no way for us to verify.  There's no explanation given for the vote.

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim7, Galzria (slightly)
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #314 on: May 30, 2012, 10:50:57 pm »

I don't think we're going to settle the Random vs. Non Random Day 1 vote start.

O isn't proposing that we all lynch randomly, he's just starting his initial voting position (which is nearly meaningless) with randomness.  Regardless of whether or not it is an acceptable play - I believe that O believes that it is positive - based on how it looks one of those other games is going, and his behavior there.  The closer we get to the kill vote, the more discussion we have about a candidate and the more information we get on voting patterns, and it doesn't really matter if we started on the wagon because of a RNG, or because I accused them of having a high post count, or we accused them because they were eating weenies during the long weekend and not posting enough.

I've been searching for Day 1 lynch stats elsewhere, to see whether town performs better or worse than random on average.  I would tend to think worse - given that if not voting randomly the mafia is going to steer the voting the way they want it to go, but I don't think any of us are going to solve this without creating MafiaCouncilRoom.com and collecting data for a few months.

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.




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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #315 on: May 30, 2012, 11:00:42 pm »

Well, I finally had a chance to review all the posts to date, and now I have to think about what I've seen.  I do have a few quick comments though.

First, I have to echo Dsell's warning about jumping on Morgrim simply for his posting style.  That was a key mistake we made in Mafia II.  Does that mean I think Morgrim is Town?  No, I don't have enough of a read on him yet.  But we should each be careful about not letting our read get confused simply because another player's posting style doesn't match ours.

O's behavior is puzzling though.  He seems to be willfully courting antagonism, and from a lot of different sources.  I'm having trouble seeing that as reasonable Town play or reasonable Mafia play.  O, could you give us some insight in what you're trying to accomplish?

A word of clarification about my "bandwagons can happen quickly" post a while back:  We have to remember there may be a Serial Killer among us, alongside 3 Mafia.  That means that a lynch could potentially happen with as few as 3 Townies on it.  Not LIKELY, as it'd be very transparent Mafia play, but possible.  Something to keep in mind.

jotheonah asked about who we'd vote for if Insomniac suddenly moved the deadline to tomorrow.  O is the obvious target, but he's SO obvious I'm not sure that's the right move.  I've already made my thoughts clear on Morgrim.  If forced to a vote right now, I'd vote for eHalcyon because of his going back and forth between O and Morgrim.  Yes, you're right eHalcyon, what you're doing so far does look like hedging.  :)

I echo the sentiment that we should hear more from def and Robz.  I'm of course aware that I wasn't posting very much over the last 48 hours either.  But at least I gave fair warning that was going to be the case! 

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

Oh, and Galzria - don't want you to feel like I'm ignoring your suspicion either.  What can I say to convince you that I did, in fact, work at the office through last night and am currently running off of 2 hours sleep?  Perhaps I should let my posting ability spontaneously decomsgiprneja;hjbkn;bkjd;
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #316 on: May 30, 2012, 11:07:49 pm »

Ahh Volt. Made me chuckle, so that's good enough for me right now. I've still got my eye on you though!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #317 on: May 30, 2012, 11:08:45 pm »

jotheonah asked about who we'd vote for if Insomniac suddenly moved the deadline to tomorrow.  O is the obvious target, but he's SO obvious I'm not sure that's the right move.  I've already made my thoughts clear on Morgrim.  If forced to a vote right now, I'd vote for eHalcyon because of his going back and forth between O and Morgrim.  Yes, you're right eHalcyon, what you're doing so far does look like hedging.  :)

I won't hold it against you.  In my defense, I'm going between them for a single consistent reason!
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #318 on: May 30, 2012, 11:36:17 pm »

OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #319 on: May 30, 2012, 11:45:21 pm »

OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.

If the random vote was for the sake of provoking discussion, that's fine.

You say you think that just one of the people that voted for you is Mafia.  What about the people that voted for Morgrim?  What about the people who haven't voted?
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O

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #320 on: May 30, 2012, 11:53:51 pm »

OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.

If the random vote was for the sake of provoking discussion, that's fine.

You say you think that just one of the people that voted for you is Mafia.  What about the people that voted for Morgrim?  What about the people who haven't voted?

Against Morgrim? I don't know. I'm not mafia, I don't think Captain is mafia... maybe Yuma, but its a random suspicious which is what I was just posting against.

People who haven't voted? Well.. if I think at most one are within the O-and-Morgrim Groups, I wonder what I think about nonvoters  ;)
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #321 on: May 31, 2012, 12:02:56 am »

eHalcyon, from a pure math standpoint, O is probably right that one Mafia has voted for him. 3/13 is almost 1/4. So ok, not quite down to the 3 that voted him, but taking into consideration how Mafia play, it's a good hunch. Same goes for 3 votes on Morgrim. Likely there was a Mafia in each group.

Guaranteed? No. But likely. Now, if O means he thinks a specific person in his voters is Mafia, he probably means me (counter-suspecting and all, especially if O is town). And honestly? That's fine. He has every right to. I came after him hard, and stand by my points. I'm glad he's finally taken the time to explain himself better now.

This brings me along to my next thought. If O is actually town, and I am town, and there is a Mafia amongst him and his three accusers, that only leaves Morgrim and Jotheonah. Since I'm not really suspicious of Morgrim, that leaves Jotheonah.

Jotheonah, I want to speak with you. You voted on O first, because you found him "annoying". Not a great reason. And you jumped off (for a decent reason) quickly. It almost feels like you're trying too hard to be town (and it worked at first, I +1'd you). Please respond.

For now, Unvote because he actually seems more willing to help now. (Though I completely understand if he continues to suspect me. Absolutely his right).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

eHalcyon

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #322 on: May 31, 2012, 01:21:26 am »

Wasn't questioning O's hunch, just wondering about his thoughts on the others.  If you want to go purely on math -- there were 6 who voted, 7 who hadn't, so 1 voting for either O or Morgrim, 1 not voting at all, and 1 could go either way.
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michaeljb

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #323 on: May 31, 2012, 01:26:23 am »

Wow, a couple new pages since the last post I read. Gonna review for a bit and hopefully get a more substantive post in before I go to bed.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« Reply #324 on: May 31, 2012, 02:31:10 am »

Okay, since I have a lot of mafia games going at once, in this game I am aiming to do fewer posts but more substance per post. I think that's more helpful anyway, since there are so many people writing comments and it is a little hard to even keep everyone straight. What I have done so far is to separate people into categories of how I see them behaving. These aren't necessarily "he's suspicious, he's not" categories, just one way of looking at everybody.

Stalwarts:
Jothonah
Voltgloss
Galzria
This group contains people who I feel I know better than other people. All three are exceedingly intelligent and analytical players. They are assets to the town. The down side to them is they are more dangerous if they are mafia. However, I may have a better idea whether they are mafia relative to other people. In any case, none have irritated me or caused me to grow suspicious of them yet.

Odd Balls:
O
Morgrim7
Everyone makes an odd comment now and then, but these two players stand out at the moment. Both chose pure, true random and voted based on it. To be fair, there was no evidence that either vote would lead to a kill. O's vote was for Morgrim, Morgrim's for Def. I don't think that either player behaved in a particularly helpful way, nor do I think their actions make them likely mafia. In fact, they were probably too strange to be mafia. Although Morgrim is so all over the place, I'm not sure I could recognize Mafia Morgrim in any scenario.

Participants:
Eevee
Michaeljb
Dsell
eHalycon
Captain_Frisk
This is the group of people (all new players) who have been somewhat active. And all of them, to some extent, have done what I consider "mafia middle-grounding." That's when they say something like, "WHat this person did here was suspicious, but then it was also not suspicious." Or they say something serious and then walk it back a bit with a joke. Obviously, this is something everybody does--I do it too--and it's not like a giveaway automatic mafia thing. But I tend to think in a game like this, with this many people, the mafia will want to be posting an "average" number of posts, that make bold claims but not crazy claims, that draw some specific targets but don't pursue them too hard. And lots of emoticons (And oh my goodness does Galzria do that too). So, I'm kind of looking at the people in this group more closely than the others. But we'll see. (Oh, and some of the people in this group have definitely done this more than others. I'd be interested to know if they know that.)

MIA:
def
yuma
I haven't heard enough from these people to really form an opinion of them. Both got votes already, but I think that was just by accident. Really, I think if they were mafia they might post a bit more.

If my characterizations seem off, please say something. Say something anyway. Just trying to stir the pot a bit.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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