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[Axxle]

One other thing -- someone should go over Day 2 when we lynched jo.  He pushed that wagon immediately?  We didn't think it through as a town, but we really should have let jo go and spent some time trying to find Mafia.  Even as SK his best move at that point was to kill Mafia, and Mafia would have wanted to get rid of him sooner than later.  I'm afraid I got sucked into voting for him, but that's still something we should look into.

Yeah.  That wasn't our finest moment.  I had suspected he was SK but I wasn't sure, I was willing to take the chance that he was a Goon instead.

[eHalcyon]

*Who pushed that wagon, is what I meant to ask.

And was it actually likely that he was a Goon?  I didn't see it, really.

[Dsell]

I really can't figure out the mafia's kills. Robz and michaeljb? They must have really been searching for roles because I don't see any strong motivation for any of us to kill any of them. Only thing is the Robz question which has already been discussed day 2. Was it to take heat off of Eevee (or me)?

Like I've said, it doesn't make sense for me to NK Robz if I'm mafia. I would probably have tried again to lead a lynch against him day 2! This obviously doesn't factor in Axxle's reveal of jo, though.

[Insomniac]

Vote Count 4-1

Not voting (7) - O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma

Deadline June 20, 2012, 11:59 PDT

[eHalcyon]

any time you want to jump in, volt..

Man, not to start pointing fingers at O again, but I don't understand what this post is about.  I looked back a couple of pages and haven't seen anything to make sense of this, some previous conversation or what not.

This was during the role claiming done on day 3.  Earlier, O and Dsell were discussing mass roleclaim.  Then Volt infamously asks about what a doctor should do... then O claimed VT, immediately followed by Dsell claiming VT.  Then Morgrim immediately claimed and denounced O.  O calls out Morgrim for his really weird play, and then O says volt can jump in... and I don't see the context for that last bit.

And then Volt has a big post about why mass roleclaim is bad.

So... can someone explain to me what happened there?

[eHalcyon]

Also, I'm doing really poorly at keeping my tenses straight.

[Dsell]

And then Volt has a big post about why mass roleclaim is bad.

Because mass roleclaim IS bad for the mafia, especially when there's a rolecop around.

[eHalcyon]

And then Volt has a big post about why mass roleclaim is bad.

Because mass roleclaim IS bad for the mafia, especially when there's a rolecop around.

I'm more asking what O meant by saying Volt should jump in.

[O]

From iPad / airport: 

I probably saw volt Lurking when I told him to jump in.


And Guys you all suck. When j investigated vanilla he could have been vanilla mafia as well.

O-1 everyone else-0

[O]

From iPad / airport: 

I probably saw volt Lurking when I told him to jump in.


And Guys you all suck. When j investigated vanilla he could have been vanilla mafia as well.

O-1 everyone else-0

This is why I wagonrd hiM, if that wasn't clear.

[Axxle]

From iPad / airport: 

I probably saw volt Lurking when I told him to jump in.


And Guys you all suck. When j investigated vanilla he could have been vanilla mafia as well.

O-1 everyone else-0

I mentioned this a few posts up.

[O]

....I'm really a pc laptop person.

[eHalcyon]

Dsell:
1134 -- suspects Eevee, yuma and Volt for Morgrim bandwagon, among other things.
* says Eevee NK'd Robz for suspicion, but note that Robz suspected Dsell just as much, and Dsell had a huge case against Robz at the start too.
* reason for yuma is weak (that he was on the wagon on day 1 and 2).
* says Volt has been generally scummy... I haven't seen it much either way.  Says Volt's hammer on Morgrim is scummy.
1145 -- Suggestion that Axxle gives no info is pro-town, although it mostly echoes my first post of the day.
1146 -- Points to Volt.
1208 -- asks if I jailed Eevee, not if I jailed yuma... I feel this is significant but not sure how.  Or maybe it's not at all.
1267 -- some personal defense
1296 -- case against Volt, somewhat yuma

Eevee:
1218 -- AFTER everyone else has claimed, talks about everyone remaining.  Heaviest suspicion on Dsell.  Also lists Volt and yuma.
1281 -- mostly defense (of himself and O, and sort of Volt and yuma).

O:
1268 -- Finds yuma scummiest, then Volt

Voltgloss:
1131 -- Suspects Dsell, based on VT claim (believes O's VT claim).
1199 -- Convinced that Dsell is lying, claims VT as well.
1275 -- defends against O and Dsell.  Says Dsell or Eevee most likely scum, yuma or O as third.

yuma:
1175 -- Some suspicion of of Dsell, Eevee
1282 -- Reason for targeting Eevee (says it was toss-up between Dsell and Eevee)



So the suspicions leveled are...

Dsell: Eevee, yuma, Volt
Eevee: Dsell, yuma, volt
O: yuma, Volt
Volt: Dsell, Eevee, yuma, O
yuma: Dsell, Eevee


Looks like O gives Eevee a pass and yuma gives Volt a pass?  And Volt actually mentions O as a suspect, hm.  Did I miss anything?

Gonna try to consider how they all interacted earlier in the game.  While it's clear that scum will "suspect" scum now, I find it slightly less likely in the early game.  Not impossible, but less likely.

And sorry O, I'm still considering you.  You're more townie to me than the other three, but I think you're still machiavellian enough to be the Mafia kingpin.  It's a compliment.

[yuma]

I am not going to try and quote from everything posted in the last few hours... I am amazed people have so much time to post as much as they are... but I will try to address a couple of things.

It appears I am the most suspicious to everyone else. I can't blame them. I don't necessarily regret my attempted one-shot of Eevee, if we had survived and I had killed Eevee (assuming he is mafia) I would be a hero right now because we would be up 4 town to 2 mafia. But it was risky and that is suspicious. Chalk it up to more dumb townie moves like we have seen thus far in this game (Morgrim and Galzria both made pretty crazy moves and if I get lynched I'll join their club).

I do need to address one thing though. It appears that the Mafia have been targeting less suspicious but not overly unsuspicious people. Michaeljb and (was it Cfrisk or Robz that we decided was the mafia kill, I can't remember) were all in the mildly suspicious camp. I think I did fit into that role of only slightly suspicious last night. I am obviously much more suspicious now than I was last night.

Someone noted that I didn't do much fishing--that isn't the right word but it was something like that--for Mafia during our Morgrim lynch and was surprised that I attempted to my night kill without it. That is a valid question. My answer to it is that during the day I wasn't planning on using my power. I thought Morgrim was Mafia and wouldn't need to use it that night. It was only after I saw that Morgrim was VT and after a little more thought--realizing that I didn't want the game to end without using my power--did I decide to use it. Again I liked my odds assuming we survived the night. I am still a little dumbfounded that we did.

My three mafia: Dsell, Eevee and either Volt or O. 55% Volt, 45% O.

Anything else that people want to know? I may or may not be on tonight. I am not sure what I have planned for tonight. Need to check with the wife.

[eHalcyon]

This is mostly about the interactions between the 5 remaining players, minus myself and Axxle, with a bit of "this was kind of suspicious" thrown in.  And it's also pretty much all Day 1 stuff, because I haven't gotten around to indexing days 2 and 3.  Day 1 took way too long.

General thoughts will be in a follow-up post.

Dsell
522: post about everyone.  Strong town read on Volt, slight favour for Eevee.  Otherwise neutral on pretty much everyone else except for Robz.  Interestingly, Dsell is very much against Robz, and in the very next post Volt heavily suspects Robz as well.
546: still find this really weird to say that it's no big deal if 4 townies get killed.
603: calls out O for not saying anything substantial.
626: introduces argument against Eevee for being a pro poker player.  Wishy-washy.
688: hedging talk, says he could be persuaded to vote Eevee but doesn't actually suspect him.

Post 843 is kind of interesting.  Dsell notes that Robz had said there was a lot of information.  Later, Robz died.  Maybe Dsell/Mafia feared that Robz really did see something, and would be able to build a strong case?

Eevee

214: praises Voltgloss -- "by the way, voltgloss seems to be an awesome guy to have around, really good and insightful posts."
246: after Robz randomly asks Eevee if he's mafia... Eevee doesn't actually deny it.
365: big post on most people; says O is suspicious for weird play (maybe not Mafia, probably not town PR).  Says Voltgloss and Dsell seem very town-like:

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

458: Eevee votes for Robz, quoting an argument from Dsell that Robz' play seems to match his play in MII.  Oh, and he calls O a "terrible player".

O
459: Vindictively votes for Eevee because of an insult.
578: Questions Voltgloss' strange experiment/analysis.
618: Lists his thoughts on each player.  He names several players who he'd like to have on the town side -- CFrisk, Robz, michaeljb, Morgrim.  Morgrim was lynched, the rest were NK'd.  Also names Dsell and Galz as people who "are close to actively harmful if they were town".
672: Tells jo to switch his vote to Eevee in order to survive (672).
690: Calls out Eevee and Voltgloss who appear to be online but are not saying anything.

Voltgloss
197: Cautions against early voting, therefore suspects early voters, which includes Eevee.
523: Strong case against Robz which follows immediately after Dsell's big post that also points FOS at Robz.  Votes for Robz.
569: Switches vote from Robz to jotheonah, apparently on the basis of an experiment.  Also see post 575.  IMO, this "experiment" thing was rather weird and unconvincing.  Also interesting to note that Volt says he strongly suspected both jo and Robz, while O said he suspected neither (599).
600: This post references both Dsell and Eevee, with respect to the arguments against Robz:

I should add that, when I ask for a rebuttal from Robz to the points I raised, I do recall he gave a rebuttal to a couple of points.  (Not all of them.)  Specifically, citing the "weaseling out" that Dsell is supposed to have done (does anyone else agree with Robz that those posts of Dsell's are as suspicious as he sees them?) and apologizing for putting his own words in Eevee's mouth. 

I can't tell if he's saying that Dsell is suspicious, or that he's saying Robz is paranoid and Dsell isn't suspicious.

698: expresses concern over the burgeoning Eevee wagon, likening it to the Robz-led Morgrim wagon in MII.

yuma

Uhh... nothing.  I found nothing of significance between yuma and any of the others.  Granted, he's been pretty quiet all through this game.

[Dsell]

546: still find this really weird to say that it's no big deal if 4 townies get killed.

You've dinged me on this twice now. How does "worst-case scenario" translate into no big deal? I was telling Galzria to chill out but that is not the same as me being cool with that situation. It is a big deal, it was what I thought was the worst thing that could happen at the time (wasn't taking into account SK). Also one of those dying townies was me, so no, it wasn't a "no big deal" thing.

[eHalcyon]

546: still find this really weird to say that it's no big deal if 4 townies get killed.

You've dinged me on this twice now. How does "worst-case scenario" translate into no big deal? I was telling Galzria to chill out but that is not the same as me being cool with that situation. It is a big deal, it was what I thought was the worst thing that could happen at the time (wasn't taking into account SK). Also one of those dying townies was me, so no, it wasn't a "no big deal" thing.

Haha, fine. 

But that's not even the most incriminating stuff.

[Axxle]

Axxle joined by yuma, O, DSell, eHalcyon and Eevee lyched J. 

I was hoping for more information from this.  Mafia would have no qualms about lynching SK and would be more likely on the wagon to appear town.  But that is all of us (minus Volt) on that wagon.

[eHalcyon]

Should look over day 2 interaction between those townies.  Day 1 is pretty incriminating though.  Post incoming.

[eHalcyon]

Based on the above assessments, Dsell, Eevee and Volt look far too close to each other.

Eevee praises Volt early on and later specifies strong town reads on both Volt and Dsell.  Dsell is all over Robz, and Volt jumps on board as well.  The wagon looks like it might be successful, but it stalls.  As the momentum builds against jo, Volt switches his vote.  When the votes begin to pile on Eevee, Volt urges caution against such a bandwagon.  Why not the same caution when it came to Robz?

So it looks like Eevee is taking a very friendly stance to the other two, Volt closer to neutral but still steps in when it looks like Eevee is in danger.  Early on Dsell and Volt pursued the same target (Robz).  Dsell seems the most distant in that he never really talks about Volt and his thoughts on Eevee are mixed.  But his first mention leans towards positive, his second is kind of an accusation but a REALLY weak one that really nobody should accept, and the last one is just very hedgy and still affirmative for Eevee.

Now considering that this is a team of 3, I no longer suspect O.  He almost got Eevee lynched, he didn't support Volt even slightly, and he called Dsell harmful to the town.

yuma was just absent... yeah...




Thought: Robz, the first Mafia NK, made some fairly substantial posts.  It may be interesting to consider those.

471 is the first big one.  Robz feels that yuma is not mafia, though this is mostly because yuma has been very quiet.  He also sees O as innocent.  He says he is wary of Volt and highly suspicious of Dsell and Eevee.

The next big one is 530.  He actually catches some other posts between Eevee, Dsell and Voltgloss that I missed or glossed over above, including one where Volt picks out Dsell as "most likely to be town".  And -- WOW -- check this out:

Of course I don't expect to convince you. Yes, I'm accusing all the people who voted for me (well, not Captain Frisk), but I'm beginning to imagine a Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss team.

They have certainly already begun acquitting each other:

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.

This actually gives a perfect reason for selecting Robz as NK.  He miraculously picked out the team on the first freaking day.


Maybe.  More likely Robz picked out 2/3.  The question is, which 2?  Of these 3, who is scummiest?

[Axxle]

Looking at that I'm very confident in an Eevee/Volt pairing.  Maybe DSell too, or maybe they were just setting him up as the fall guy.

[Axxle]

The post of Eevee that Robz quotes is the first one Eevee writes after the post of Volt (although Volt wrote some posts between).  I could definitely see Eevee thinking "Oh look, Volt is exonerating someone, I should do that for him in my post too" and accidentally or maliciously included DSell.

[Dsell]

He miraculously picked out the team on the first freaking day.

Except he didn't. That is a good bit of investigative work though, picking 2 out of the 3 is a pretty good reason to NK him.

And yeah, I strongly believed that Volt was town day 1. I mildly believed Eevee was town. They both hopped on my bandwagon and said I was a good townie and otherwise made me feel good about my vote on Robz. They established trust in a townie. Not uncommon for scum.

Pre-post edit: I feel confident about that pairing too, Axxle.

[eHalcyon]

Day 2 thoughts... just reading it over, not going as indepth as I did for day 1. 

yuma asks a question about 1-shot vigs (927) and the response gets him to vote for jo (930).  Was it because he was curious about his own role?  Granted, his posts make sense even if he's lying about being 1-shot vig.

Volt waits to see if anyone counterclaims Axxle.  Assuming Axxle is innocent, Volt would know he is telling the truth if Volt was mafia.  This could be a townie tell or it could be smart mafia play.

As far as the "SK or Mafia" argument over jo, O was the first one who really said he thought jo was likely Mafia.  After that, Axxle was slowly brought around.  Volt argued a bit for it.


924: Axxle votes for jo (1).
925: Volt says he'll wait before voting.
930: yuma votes for jo (2).
937: Eevee says he'll wait as well.
941: O votes for jo (3).
944: Dsell votes for jo (4).
947: Dsell unvotes (3).
949: Dsell votes for jo again (4).
953: Dsell unvotes a second time (3).
957: Dsell votes for jo a third time (4).
1004: eHalcyon votes for jo (5).
1017: Eevee votes for jo (6).  Hammered.

Not sure if this order of voting really says anything, but there it is.

[eHalcyon]

Why was michaeljb night killed?  His last significant post was #1011.  He wants to analyze the people who voted for Galzria:

Galzria went from 0 votes to lynched in just under 3.5 hours, I just don't see that being done with absolutely no mafia push. So I'm inclined to look at those voters who are still alive (eHalcyon, O, jotheonah, Eevee, Dsell, Morgrim7). I'm confident there has to be at least one mafia in that group, and I think it's fairly likely two of them are mafia, and it's possible that all three are mafia, but that seems unlikely to me.

[snip]

Other people that voted for Galzria…
Well I'm still suspicious of Morgrim, I'd like to hear from him. Especially why he brought the hammer down, even when he was sure that Galzria was town. How could he be sure Galzria was town? And why would he then hammer him? Morgrim being mafia answers both questions, though perhaps a bit obviously. (And to address the possibility that automatically suspecting the hammer is a fallacy, just re-read my question with "vote" instead of "hammer")

eHalcyon, O, MrEevee, Dsell…I don't feel that I have a whole lot to say about any of these, certainly none of them are as suspicious to me as jotheonah and morgrim.

In that list, the ones who are alive and not cleared are Dsell and Eevee, and O to some extent.  Did he manage to accuse 2/3 mafia, similar to Robz?  Is that why he was killed, and then used to set up Morgrim?