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[eHalcyon]

O and eHalcyon's initial reads of my post were correct.  Dsell's read, made after I publicly suspected him, is not.

Sorry, what initial reads of which post?  Again, I thought you were doctor because of the post that Dsell quoted.  But since you also mention O, I think you are talking about a different post.

[Voltgloss]

O and eHalcyon's initial reads of my post were correct.  Dsell's read, made after I publicly suspected him, is not.

Sorry, what initial reads of which post?  Again, I thought you were doctor because of the post that Dsell quoted.  But since you also mention O, I think you are talking about a different post.

When you posted that you thought the post Dsell cited was an earnest inquiry, not a Doctor tell.  O then posted he didn't pick up on any "tell" when I first made that post.  Did I misunderstand one (or both) of you?

[eHalcyon]

O and eHalcyon's initial reads of my post were correct.  Dsell's read, made after I publicly suspected him, is not.

Sorry, what initial reads of which post?  Again, I thought you were doctor because of the post that Dsell quoted.  But since you also mention O, I think you are talking about a different post.

When you posted that you thought the post Dsell cited was an earnest inquiry, not a Doctor tell.  O then posted he didn't pick up on any "tell" when I first made that post.  Did I misunderstand one (or both) of you?

I meant that I thought you made an earnest inquiry AS a doctor, thus UNINTENTIONALLY leaving a doctor tell.  Basically, I didn't see why you would ask "what should a doctor do?" without also asking about jailkeeper.  You also said that you didn't think we had any roleblockers, of which jailkeeper is a type.  So why also assume we have a doctor?

Several others have said that they didn't notice that "tell", though Dsell obviously did.  I was particularly aware of it because, in all of my posts about power roles, I've been careful not to mention a hypothetical jailkeeper without also considering a hypothetical doctor.  I was afraid that someone would notice such a slip and realize, "he knows there is a jailkeeper but not if there is a doctor, so he must be a jailkeeper".  As a result, I myself was on the lookout for such a slip.  I thought I had found it in you.

[Dsell]

What's next, Axxle? Can you say anything yet? Should eHalcyon post his night 3 jail? Do we need to hurry up and wait for Eevee and yuma?

[yuma]

I am here for about 5 minutes during break:

Interesting developments. Axxle do you still want me to claim now?

[eHalcyon]

hurry up and wait

Nice.

[Axxle]

yes yma

[yuma]

K. I'll be quick since I don't have a lot of time and will write something more substansive when I get home in ~ 2 hours.

I am one-shot vigilante. I was not around when jot claimed earlier and I after Axxle outed him as SK or Mafia I saw no reason to reveal myself so I kept my role hidden.

I attempted to use my power, on Eevee, last night but was obviously not successful.

I'll be back as soon as I can.

[Dsell]

It seems obvious to ask (but maybe I'm premature?): eHalcyon, did you jail Eevee last night?

[eHalcyon]

Well that was unexpected.

Dsell, I will not answer that question unless Axxle asks me to.  I think it is harmless to answer but without knowing Axxle's plan, I think it's safer to wait.

[eHalcyon]

Scratch that, I thought of some implications.  IMO it is better to hear Eevee's claim first.  But again, I defer to Axxle.

[Axxle]

I want to hear from Eevee as well.  Both his claim and to reign in on developments.

[Dsell]

He hasn't posted in 3 days, but he was on earlier today. I am going to die of anticipation. XD

Actually, it has been more than 48 hours, I believe. Can we get a prod, even if it's just a formality?

[Insomniac]

Prod has been sent

[O]

I also urge a O vs. MrEevee match up for 3rd place.

cant play until the 14th, is that too late?

He won't be here today

Also, Eevee, I'll be flying tomorrow, so it'll have to be *after* the 14th

doesn't matter really because its for our own personal vanity anyways 

[eHalcyon]

For the record, yuma -- it's fine to say that you tried to kill someone last night, but you should have kept your target secret.  That information could have helped in other ways.  For example, if you are telling the truth and Axxle had investigated you last night, then he could have potentially used that information to verify my own claim by having me state who I jailed.

I think the best course right now is for none of us to post speculations on the veracity of each claim.  In the possible case that Eevee is mafia, we don't want to give him information re: town temperament that would help him determine the best claim to make.  No need to give the Mafia ideas here.

With people not being around, I guess that's going to make for a boring few days coming up.

[yuma]

For the record, yuma -- it's fine to say that you tried to kill someone last night, but you should have kept your target secret.  That information could have helped in other ways.  For example, if you are telling the truth and Axxle had investigated you last night, then he could have potentially used that information to verify my own claim by having me state who I jailed.

I think the best course right now is for none of us to post speculations on the veracity of each claim.  In the possible case that Eevee is mafia, we don't want to give him information re: town temperament that would help him determine the best claim to make.  No need to give the Mafia ideas here.

With people not being around, I guess that's going to make for a boring few days coming up.

You may be right about revealing too much. I wanted to be as straightforward as possible and didn't realize it could be hazardous information. Hopefully it won't cause too much damage.

Seeing as we are waiting for Eevee before speculating I won't expound on my reveal as I was planning.

I think a few boring days might do us some good.

[Dsell]

Since I'm leaving early Friday morning, I'm going to park my vote on someone tomorrow night either based on Axxle's suggestion or my own reasoning if I don't hear from him.

[Eevee]

Okay!

First of all, I apologize for being absent. I was travelling home for almost 30 hours (missed one flight due to first plane being late 3.5 hours, ughhh) and slept for another 15. My info box shows me I've been online for 5 days straight which obviously isnt true so leaving the page open on my ipad/laptop probably causes that. I did try to check if the day had started before falling asleep yesterday but it hadnt or I was so tired that I missed it.. anyways, home now, lots of time to post. I'm on europe time though (gmt+2), guessing the time difference is something like 10 hours so that might make being online when all of you are a bit tricky.

2nd thing on the list, I claim VT.

My thoughts/analysis on the situation, player by player:

Myself: VT. Pretty darn sure about this.

Axxle: I see no reason not to trust Axxle (and as others have pointed out, even if you give axxle lying 10% or 20% or even 40%, doesnt really matter given we are dead lost anyways if thats the case). So Axxle = town rolecop.

yuma: This is interesting. The thing is, we can only have so many VT's and knowing my own role, anyone claiming VT instantly becomes more suspicous than someone claiming a reasonable power role. And yuma claiming one-shot vigilante is very reasonable. Butttt, if yuma is mafia, he has to know claiming VT at this point is very risky. He has to know claiming something else is better if he can make it believable. One shot vigilante plays so similar to VT + no real risk of counterclaims (since there could be two of those for all we know) makes me think its actually a tad too convenient for yuma.. making me more suspicious of him. Also, me being targeted by a OSV is in itself very believable (I have a terrible terrible voting record + was suspected some and never really cleared my name 100%)  but yuma specifically never voiced any suspicions towards me (iirc) so deciding to use his ability last night to kill me makes me wonder. Can you explain why you did this? I'll expand on why I'm suspicious of this claim later on this post.

eHalcyon: This to me is actually much more believable. First of all, eHal's actions especially today have been very pro-town. Secondly, If I was mafia, I'd be scared of claiming jailkeeper because of the risk of counter claims (he was one of the first to claim too?).  Given I think eHalcyon is genuine, the yet to be revealed mystery of who was jailed last night actually helps some with deciding about yuma. Doesnt look like we have a doctor (and even if we did, he wouldnt have saved me), so the only explanation for me living if yuma isnt lying is a) yuma got jailed (why?) or b) I got jailed (that I can believe maybe?). Conclusion: f this gets to yuma's word against eHalcyons word, I'd atm be believing eHalcyon.

O: I guessss I do believe he is town after all. Not 100% I-place-all-my-trust-on-you-and-let-you-vote-for-me, but still. The reasons that made me suspect you earlier just seem to be a part of your playing style. I dont think O's proposal to joh clears him at all though, seems like an equally weird town move?? The godfather theory is interesting and would explain that but... uhhh. Conclusion: yeah, probably just a VT.

Voltgloss: I realize I've earlier said "he seems very town" on multiple occasions. Well, that has not been true today anymore. Not saying I got a particular mafia-vibe out of him, but unless Insomniac is playing a sick prank on us (I mean, it is possible we just have no mafia amongst us whatsoever lol, but maybe I'm just eager to find any explanation for my (lack of) success in voting for mafia this far), we do have 3 mafia and others seem more town to me now. That doctor or not "confusion" doesn't look damning to me fwiw, if he decided to plant that hint earlier as mafia, I think he would have claimed doctor now given we still have no other doctor around (opportune moment to claim if there ever was one?). Also to remember: Volt seems like a super smart player so need to be really careful to not be fooled when he responds to this. Conclusion: somewhat suspicious.

Dsell: The guy I'm most suspicious of. I would hope to be more certain but it is what it is. The reasons I think Dsell is mafia: a) claiming VT (explained above) b) really eager to mass claim, seems like a way to fish for information as mafia c) well.. everyone else is less suspicious.

The fact no one died: This might be useless speculation since eHalcyon will be revealing who he jailed after I post but.. the thing that makes me very suspicious of yuma is that no one died. Mafia obviously tried to kill someone (this has to be the case, right?) and yuma claims he tried to kill me. We dont have a doctor. No one died. Three possibilities:

a) yuma got jailed, mafia tried to kill yuma
b) I got jailed, mafia tried to kill me
c) yuma is lying and is mafia, either the mafia guy who was making the kill or the intended target was jailed.

a) seems possible I guess, but yuma seems somewhat of a surprising target for both the jailkeeper (well, eHalcyon is going to clear this) and mafia (maybe if yuma is being genuine and mafia has a rolecop?) so this would be hell of a coincidence.
b) even if eHalcyon thought I was likely mafia, I'm still a terrible target to jailkeep given every possible mafia team would have someone less suspicious than me who could do the killing (who kills is not random, mafia gets to pick, right?). Also, dont know why mafia would target me since I have no power role and was suspected more than most. Again, seems quite unlikely.
c) what I think happened. This might help us clear someone if eHalcyon didnt jail yuma (if we believe eHalcyon that is, and I'm very inclined to do so).

So yeah, I'm guessing the mafia team is Dsell, Volt and yuma (unless O is a godfather or eHalcyon is lying which would make this a whole new ballgame.. as I said, very inclined to believe them both) One of the more damning things about Volt and Dsell is the VT claim, so if O actually is a godfather.. yeah. Actually hoping Axxle investigated O now. If Volt, Dsell, myself or O have been investigated and are something but vanilla, doesnt that mean that person was lying and is mafia? (Also by the same logic, if yuma or eHalcyon was investigated and turned up vanilla, they were lying and must be mafia?)

[O]

Since I'm leaving early Friday morning, I'm going to park my vote on someone tomorrow night either based on Axxle's suggestion or my own reasoning if I don't hear from him.

It's freaking lylo..

[eHalcyon]

I don't know if we needed that analysis, yuma.  Like I said, any analysis we give may just prompt the Mafia to push certain town feelings into a mislynch.

I am not going to reveal my jail target until prompted by Axxle.  I'll say for now that my choice of target was influenced by some apparently poor assumptions -- that we had a doctor, and that the doctor was Voltgloss.

Also might be interesting if we had a doctor who was lying about being VT.  As long as he doesn't get lynched, that's actually the best position for us because there's just a little bit more chance that the doctor will survive the night if we lynch correctly.  The nice thing is that if Axxle finds the doctor, he doesn't have to share that information.  In fact, he doesn't have to tell us anything at all today if he has enough information to determine who to lynch.  It would be a stronger position for the town if he could keep that information secret until day 4.

The only reason for Axxle to give any more info than who to lynch is if he thinks he is in danger.  That may be the case now -- maybe the Mafia has left him alone so far because they were afraid of a doctor.  Now that no claim has been made, they may go after him.

Oh, since I've claimed I may as well ask this -- if Axxle investigates someone who is in jail, does he still get a result?  I assume that he does.

[Axxle]

Since I'm leaving early Friday morning, I'm going to park my vote on someone tomorrow night either based on Axxle's suggestion or my own reasoning if I don't hear from him.

It's freaking lylo..

He was always going to be gone then.  Also, we only have a day of discussion after that before the deadline anyway.

Thanks Eevee.  Because there aren't any other protective roles I know that eHalcyon is telling the truth.  If you can tell us who you jailed today that'd be great.

Can you reveal who you jailed, eHalc? I don't see why not, and we need all the information we can.

[Axxle]

I'll hold on to my investigative information for now.

[eHalcyon]

Err, I mean Eevee.  We didn't need that analysis, Eevee.

What information do we still have that hasn't been divulged?  There is my jail target and the reasoning for my jail target.  There is the reasoning for yuma's alleged attempt on Eevee (very, very curious about this one -- if true, it's an extremely dangerous gambit for a townie).  Is there anything else?

And again, I don't think anyone should say anything about it until prompted by Axxle.



@Dsell -- when will you return?  If Axxle doesn't give us a target before you go, it's better for us to wait until you get back.  If you just park a vote, the Mafia could very easily hammer.  It just takes 4 to lynch, right?  That would be game over.  That you even suggest it is sketchy... but I'm getting too close to breaking my own recommended analysis-silence. 

PPE: I jailed yuma.  Do you want the reasoning behind it?  Do you want my analysis of what this means for yuma's claim?

[O]

Claims:

Rolecop: Axxle
Jailkeeper: Ehalycon
One-Shot Vig: Yuma
VT:O, Eevee, Voltgloss, Dsell

WOO!
Mafia suck. They really screwed this up.
Axxle and Ehalycon are both telling the truth (confirmed townies), unless we have lying townies or Axxle has master-played us (Jailkeeper + 1shot vig seems light)

if not, how did we survive the night?

That leaves us with 5 people with probably 3 mafia, *before* axxle and ehalycon reveal

O (damn), Voltgloss, Yuma, Voltgloss, Eevee, Yuma

Now Yuma's 1shot vig claim confirms little: If he's mafia, he claims 1shot vig and knows who to say he targeted because he knows the mafia kill got blocked (maybe he was selected to make the kill).

Fortunately, this is confirmable via cop inspection, so if it hasn't already been done we can do it tomorrow, in the now-likely odds that we live.

Axxle + Ehalycon, it's probably time to reveal.