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[eHalcyon]

I'll add that I didn't want to bring up the "Voltgloss is doctor" tell in case it's true and the mafia missed it... but whatever.


I've had a new thought, but it's unconventional and not even something we can safely act on because it could really go either way.  Writing it up now.  In the meantime, thoughts on whether I should share it now, or wait?

[eHalcyon]

I've got my thing written.  I don't know if I should post it.  On the one hand it may expose a possibility we haven't yet considered.  On the other hand, it might just provide fodder for the mafia to lay suspicion on someone we wouldn't otherwise suspect.

You are awoken by the sound of a loud scream, as you slowly come to your senses you realize its the head beggar calling a meeting. You quickly rush to the center where the meetings are held. You scan the crowd quickly as you do you make out O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon and yuma. Huh, everyone made it through the night

Insomniac, who screamed?  What was the meeting about?

[eHalcyon]

(The second part was just for fun.  It has nothing to do with my idea.  )

[O]

AXXLE:

If you trust me, consider the following:

There are 4 townies

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

IFF you believe me, then it stands to reason that either 2 townies (one of which is doctor) is fingering Volt as doctor, or a mafia is fingering volt as doctor.

Obviously this is moot if you investigated volt or something but this provides a scummy outlook for at least one of Dsell/Halycon, and probably volt.

[Voltgloss]

I'm waiting to see Dsell's response to Axxle's question before weighing in further.

[eHalcyon]

AXXLE:

If you trust me, consider the following:

There are 4 townies

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

IFF you believe me, then it stands to reason that either 2 townies (one of which is doctor) is fingering Volt as doctor, or a mafia is fingering volt as doctor.

Obviously this is moot if you investigated volt or something but this provides a scummy outlook for at least one of Dsell/Halycon, and probably volt.

Your reasoning is sound.  Assuming you are town, it is impossible for all three of me, Dsell and Volt to be town.  But then, we must also assume that yuma and Eevee are guaranteed Mafia.  Unless there are two Mafia within this trio?  I see it as possible that Mafia Volt would leave an obvious doctor tell hoping that a townie would call it so that he could "confirm".  When nobody actually speaks out on it, Mafia Dsell can point it out and hope someone agrees (which I did). 

Axxle's question was astute -- why did Dsell point it out?  In the best case (from town perspective), you are outing your doctor who is probably best left hidden.  Worse, if Volt is really Mafia, it allows others to say "yes I agree" and it lets a Mafia claim with far less risk.



But I have to say this now -- can we still trust you?  The idea I had puts you in the Mafia. 

[Insomniac]

I've got my thing written.  I don't know if I should post it.  On the one hand it may expose a possibility we haven't yet considered.  On the other hand, it might just provide fodder for the mafia to lay suspicion on someone we wouldn't otherwise suspect.

You are awoken by the sound of a loud scream, as you slowly come to your senses you realize its the head beggar calling a meeting. You quickly rush to the center where the meetings are held. You scan the crowd quickly as you do you make out O, Axxle, Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon and yuma. Huh, everyone made it through the night

Insomniac, who screamed?  What was the meeting about?

The lead beggar screamed demanding everyone attend his meeting, you missed what the meeting was about, too busy making a head count on who was alive

[O]

AXXLE:

If you trust me, consider the following:

There are 4 townies

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

IFF you believe me, then it stands to reason that either 2 townies (one of which is doctor) is fingering Volt as doctor, or a mafia is fingering volt as doctor.

Obviously this is moot if you investigated volt or something but this provides a scummy outlook for at least one of Dsell/Halycon, and probably volt.

Your reasoning is sound.  Assuming you are town, it is impossible for all three of me, Dsell and Volt to be town.  But then, we must also assume that yuma and Eevee are guaranteed Mafia.  Unless there are two Mafia within this trio?  I see it as possible that Mafia Volt would leave an obvious doctor tell hoping that a townie would call it so that he could "confirm".  When nobody actually speaks out on it, Mafia Dsell can point it out and hope someone agrees (which I did). 

Axxle's question was astute -- why did Dsell point it out?  In the best case (from town perspective), you are outing your doctor who is probably best left hidden.  Worse, if Volt is really Mafia, it allows others to say "yes I agree" and it lets a Mafia claim with far less risk.



But I have to say this now -- can we still trust you?  The idea I had puts you in the Mafia. 

In all honestly I don't care altogether too much about your trust, since (Given my trust in myself + axxle) there's a 60% chance that you're mafia ignoring tells.

I really really really really just want to convince Axxle that he should trust me, since I believe that if me and Axxle are teammates that our odds of getting a correct lynch skyrocket.

Once again, I'm really not even considering Axxle as mafia because we've lost then anyways.

[eHalcyon]

In all honestly I don't care altogether too much about your trust, since (Given my trust in myself + axxle) there's a 60% chance that you're mafia ignoring tells.

I really really really really just want to convince Axxle that he should trust me, since I believe that if me and Axxle are teammates that our odds of getting a correct lynch skyrocket.

Once again, I'm really not even considering Axxle as mafia because we've lost then anyways.

I agree, and I'm in about the same position against you.  I'm just far less confident about my ability to get a correct lynch, given my track record... then again, you should be too since you were on both the bad wagons I was on, and in both cases we were the first two votes.  Are you really so confident about your own judgement at this point?

As far as tells go -- what are your thoughts on everyone?  Eevee and yuma continue to avoid discussion...

So should I post my case against you?  And more importantly -- Axxle, do you think I should post it?

[Dsell]

Voltgloss' "hint," if that's what it was, was extremely unsubtle. If you are town and you picked up on it, don't insult our mafia by thinking they didn't. I don't know who Axxle investigated but I put that quote here because I am actually really suspicious of that claim. I don't see a need for a real doctor to drop hints like that and I've seen a lot more scumminess out of him recently than helpfulness. Seriously, was Voltgloss in so much hot water from me, O, and Morgrim claiming VT that he felt that he needed to reveal his role without revealing? I am wary of Voltgloss.

[O]

In all honestly I don't care altogether too much about your trust, since (Given my trust in myself + axxle) there's a 60% chance that you're mafia ignoring tells.

I really really really really just want to convince Axxle that he should trust me, since I believe that if me and Axxle are teammates that our odds of getting a correct lynch skyrocket.

Once again, I'm really not even considering Axxle as mafia because we've lost then anyways.

I agree, and I'm in about the same position against you.  I'm just far less confident about my ability to get a correct lynch, given my track record... then again, you should be too since you were on both the bad wagons I was on, and in both cases we were the first two votes.  Are you really so confident about your own judgement at this point?

As far as tells go -- what are your thoughts on everyone?  Eevee and yuma continue to avoid discussion...

So should I post my case against you?  And more importantly -- Axxle, do you think I should post it?

I feel OK about my morgrim vote. I was going to try and grab Dsell, whose townie claim right after mine looked scummy to me, but then morgrim just made this completely batshit crazy post in which he 1) Claimed VT #6 AND 2) Said I was Mafia because if I was VT that would mean there were 6 VT. It just didn't make any sense and that's why I voted for him.

Galzria also was acting a little nutty the first round, but mostly I hammered him because for some reason I had faith in Jo and D1 is mostly RVS anyways... so why not vote for Galzria?

All in all no, I'm not confident.

Voltgloss's hammer looks like its a mafia hammer with knowledge that he has a high chance of victory. This is why I don't trust you and Dsell: Volt seems so clearly to be the likeliest scum and both of you claim he's doctor... it just makes no sense.

[Dsell]

Erm... my read is that the doctor/jailkeeper is whoever the hell Axxle says he is, if AXXLE got that return.

I completely agree with this, and if Voltgloss turned up doctor according to Axxle, I would believe it. But who knows whether Axxle found the doctor? Axxle does. But if he found the doctor, he can say with good confidence who the mafia is IF he trusts our claims, O.

[Dsell]

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

This is not correct. I believe he meant to drop that hint but I hope that Axxle can confirm. If he can't, I actually think Voltgloss is mafia >50%.

[eHalcyon]

Voltgloss' "hint," if that's what it was, was extremely unsubtle. If you are town and you picked up on it, don't insult our mafia by thinking they didn't. I don't know who Axxle investigated but I put that quote here because I am actually really suspicious of that claim. I don't see a need for a real doctor to drop hints like that and I've seen a lot more scumminess out of him recently than helpfulness. Seriously, was Voltgloss in so much hot water from me, O, and Morgrim claiming VT that he felt that he needed to reveal his role without revealing? I am wary of Voltgloss.

I thought he was trying to ask a legitimate question and not dropping any hint there.  I think it was an earnest slip-up.

Is it really an insult to the mafia?  Voltgloss didn't die last night.  Possibilities:

1. Voltgloss is mafia, pure and simple.
2. Voltgloss is doctor...
2a. Mafia did not notice the tell, targeted someone else who was saved.
2b. Mafia noticed but decided to risk going after Axxle, who was protected.
2c. Mafia targeted Volt but the goon was jailed.
3. Surprise bullet proof townies.

There could also be severe misreads of others, e.g. if Axxle is pulling the strings.  And like we've all been saying, if that's the case, the town has no chance.

[O]

I still claim VT and I also didn't pick up on this tell.

[eHalcyon]

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

This is not correct. I believe he meant to drop that hint but I hope that Axxle can confirm. If he can't, I actually think Voltgloss is mafia >50%.

I'm finding Eevee and yuma to be the most suspicious, especially because nobody else seems to be considering them at all, one way or the other.

Still waiting for Volt to say something about all this, though he's in a tough spot whether he is Mafia or Doctor or even a VT.  All faith to Axxle and whatever info he holds.

[O]

Ehalycon and Dsell both claim they suspect Voltgloss is doctor

This is not correct. I believe he meant to drop that hint but I hope that Axxle can confirm. If he can't, I actually think Voltgloss is mafia >50%.

I'm finding Eevee and yuma to be the most suspicious, especially because nobody else seems to be considering them at all, one way or the other.

Still waiting for Volt to say something about all this, though he's in a tough spot whether he is Mafia or Doctor or even a VT.  All faith to Axxle and whatever info he holds.

Of course I'm considering them!

All 3 (assuming there's 3) mafia are among (in my eyes):
Dsell
Ehalycon
Voltgloss
Eevee
Yuma

So either i'd be cocksure of a D-E-V trio or I'd have suspicions on the two of them.

[Dsell]

Like I said before, my bet is on a V-E-Y mafia, but I realize that Volt is the trickiest of these because things get messy if he actually IS the doctor (actually it's not that tricky, it would be eHal instead).

[Dsell]

Oops, and by E I mean Eevee, not eHal.

[eHalcyon]

Heh, I guess there's just less mention of them because they themselves are being quiet.

Here's my case against you.  I'm certainly afraid of giving the Mafia a flame to fan, but that's why I started the day by asking Axxle to stay quiet.  If there is any water to this theory, he's the only real chance of confirming it.  If he can't, there is no way we should pursue it as a town.

I'll add that I think Axxle should remain silent until Eevee and yuma both have a chance to give their stances.

-------------------------------------

Consider that we had a SK in our town.  Although SK is scum, it can also target Mafia -- and it probably should, in many cases.

With 3 Mafia and a hidden SK, and only a town rolecop rather than a full-fledged cop, the odds seem against the town.  Therefore I can't believe that the Mafia would have a roleblocker.  What other roles could the Mafia have?  They must have something, or else the rolecop is even less useful.  It can identify friendly town, but announcing it or even hinting at it ("I firmly believe he is innocent") just paints a target on that back for the night.

I think the best answer is Godfather.  Note that Godfather is not necessarily a Mafia member that investigates as town.  A variation on the wiki:

In games with multiple killers, instead of appearing innocent on Cop reports, the Godfather may be Bulletproof instead; they will appear guilty on Cop reports as normal, but cannot be killed at Night. (This has also been called Mafia Tough Guy.)

With SK in play, the game certainly had multiple killers.  A findable Godfather makes the rolecop a bit more useful as well.

If this is the flavour of Godfather in our town, who is likely to be the one?  I know this is going against the town read, but in this situation we need to consider all possibilities... I think the most likely bulletproof Mafia around would be O.

At the end of day 1, O put himself at risk to the claimed Vigilante (now known SK).  This is all well and good if he's a townie, but if he is the Godfather?  Applause for the brilliant Xanatos Gambit.

First of all, consider the reason for putting CFrisk as the other potential victim:

At risk of getting locked before an answer -- O, why did you nominate CF to be your roulette buddy?

Because I'm suspicious of him, he makes too many logical and clearheaded posts.

You'd think I'm joking, but that's my real reason.

At the time, I thought it was a decent townie reason.  But it's even better as a scum reason.  Now consider possible outcomes for Godfather O:

1. jo chooses not to kill -- mostly status quo, though jo's claim becomes more questionable and can be fuel for day 2 suspicion.

2. CFrisk dies -- a logical, clear-headed townie is down.

3. Vigilante jo tries to kill O and fails -- if jo reports the result, guage the town's reaction.  If they are against jo, push that feeling and remove the vigilante threat immediately.  If they are on jo's side, spin other explanations.  Jailkeeper, for instance.  If jailkeeper claims and refutes, a good NK target is now available and the town remains in confusion.  Or suggest that jo is lying about having tried at all.  That's still plausible.

4. SK jo tries to kill O and fails -- the SK is in a dilemma now.  He can report it, in which case see point 3.  Or he can keep this info to himself, but it does him little good and now jo is the one who has to worry about dealing with the town.

And in all cases, O gets vanilla townie points for putting himself at risk.  And not only that, he managed to point any available investigative role at jo, thus keeping himself safe from discovery.

These are pretty much decent-to-great outcomes for the Mafia no matter what happens.  Completely win-win.





Even with this idea, I don't suspect O much at all.  I still find Dsell more suspicious.  The problem is that the people I found most suspicious on past days were Galzria and Morgrim, both of whom were lynched and both of whom were town.  I think this is a major reason why I haven't been NK'd myself -- I'm too good at getting townies killed.  Maybe my town reads are off too.  Maybe my belief in O is another reason the Godfather has let me live.

[O]

1) Really, the best analogy there is the original WIFOM: Where both glasses are poisoned and I'm immune to the poison 
2) I don't quite understand how I guarantee living in this situation: At the time of the so-called-gambit, I had every reason to assume Jo was Vig and not SK. So when Jo picks me and doesn't kill me, he as Vig would get me killed unless I did your desperation jailkeep scenario, which seems unlikely to prevail.

So yea, basically I think this possible case against me fails because it assumes I had knowledge that J was SK and not Vig, when I really had no way of confirming this D1.

[Voltgloss]

I see there has been a lot of activity (which I've not yet read) and will try to weigh in substantively when I've had a chance to review.  RL work has lunged to the fore this afternoon/evening though, so it may not until be late tonight. 

[eHalcyon]

1) Really, the best analogy there is the original WIFOM: Where both glasses are poisoned and I'm immune to the poison 
2) I don't quite understand how I guarantee living in this situation: At the time of the so-called-gambit, I had every reason to assume Jo was Vig and not SK. So when Jo picks me and doesn't kill me, he as Vig would get me killed unless I did your desperation jailkeep scenario, which seems unlikely to prevail.

So yea, basically I think this possible case against me fails because it assumes I had knowledge that J was SK and not Vig, when I really had no way of confirming this D1.

It's not really a "desperation jailkeep scenario" because you don't have to bring it up as a possibility.  If Vig jo said "I tried and failed", someone will inevitably bring that up as a possibility.  And it could force a jailkeeper to claim, which might not even be believed.

Even if you count that possibility as a negative outcome for mafia, it's still just one out of several, and the payoff on success is amazing.

For the record, I'm largely posting that theory so that I can get some cred if it turns out to be true. 

I don't really want to focus on you, O, because I can see you going either way.  Similar for Dsell, though I've found him extremely suspicious.  The same for Voltgloss due to that "doctor tell", which I trusted but Dsell pointed out and said he found it sketchy.  That leaves Eevee and yuma.

I think what I want is for Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss to claim.  I can claim too.  Then, we can use Axxle's knowledge to try to work out who is lying.

If all town roles are exposed, what is the math on town success assuming that the Mafia get a successful NK each night?

[Dsell]

I think what I want is for Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss to claim.  I can claim too.  Then, we can use Axxle's knowledge to try to work out who is lying.

I actually think this is a really good idea. Maybe. The only thing I'm worried about is my entire brain being turned upside down. But no, I think this is good and then Axxle can report back.

Though like I said earlier, IF Axxle trusts me and O and investigated neither one of us, he can determine 100% who at least one mafia is.

[O]

1) Really, the best analogy there is the original WIFOM: Where both glasses are poisoned and I'm immune to the poison 
2) I don't quite understand how I guarantee living in this situation: At the time of the so-called-gambit, I had every reason to assume Jo was Vig and not SK. So when Jo picks me and doesn't kill me, he as Vig would get me killed unless I did your desperation jailkeep scenario, which seems unlikely to prevail.

So yea, basically I think this possible case against me fails because it assumes I had knowledge that J was SK and not Vig, when I really had no way of confirming this D1.

It's not really a "desperation jailkeep scenario" because you don't have to bring it up as a possibility.  If Vig jo said "I tried and failed", someone will inevitably bring that up as a possibility.  And it could force a jailkeeper to claim, which might not even be believed.

Even if you count that possibility as a negative outcome for mafia, it's still just one out of several, and the payoff on success is amazing.

For the record, I'm largely posting that theory so that I can get some cred if it turns out to be true. 

I don't really want to focus on you, O, because I can see you going either way.  Similar for Dsell, though I've found him extremely suspicious.  The same for Voltgloss due to that "doctor tell", which I trusted but Dsell pointed out and said he found it sketchy.  That leaves Eevee and yuma.

I think what I want is for Eevee, yuma and Voltgloss to claim.  I can claim too.  Then, we can use Axxle's knowledge to try to work out who is lying.

If all town roles are exposed, what is the math on town success assuming that the Mafia get a successful NK each night?

Low, but obviously dependent on what role we have (if had just had a 1-shot bulletproof townie... well, like I've said, lynch Insomniac is a good option).

I mean, assume axxle is telling the truth: we have a rolecop, which is OK. Except we have tons of VT. And the Serial Killer investigated as innocent. And any power that the rolecop gets from investigating mafia.. means that the mafia has one more power role.

So Rolecop only really works on a) our protective role and b) any mafia power-roles. We kind of lucked into the SK claiming one.