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[CoheedandCambria]

I was curious to see what level I could get to in one day so I made a new account and tried to play as many games as I had time for. I reached level 22 in 29 games (25-3-1) and now I'm wondering how many games it would take for an undefeated player to reach Obi Won Bonogi's level 51 status. I'm assuming there are a lot more variables to this than I am thinking of but let's just assume that the undefeated player plays 1 game a day against someone as close to his level as possible.

[Captain_Frisk]

I can't give you an exact answer, but its probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 100.

A few months back, someone by the name of Paralyzed was proposing a perfect set of kingdom cards that enasbled the KC / Goons / Masquerade pin... and won a rediculous percentage of his games (Nearly 100%)

http://bggdl.square7.ch/leaderboard/leaderboard-2011-09-03.html

Around the same time, I was attempting to get to the top of the leaderboard (via slightly less offensive means) - playing as "conjecture".  I got close, but stopped because I knew there was no way I could touch paralyzed.  It took me around 300 games with an ~80% win rate.

[dougz]

This is easy to simulate.  Starting with today's leaderboard, assuming no other games happen in the meantime and all games take place in the same day, it takes 31 games for a new player to get to #1, and 35 games to get to level 51 (by always winning a 2-player game against the top-ranked player that is not himself).

game 1: start level 0 (ranked #18056); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 2: start level 3 (ranked #10348); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 3: start level 6 (ranked #7268); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 4: start level 9 (ranked #5400); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 5: start level 12 (ranked #4125); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 6: start level 14 (ranked #3168); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 7: start level 17 (ranked #2437); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 8: start level 19 (ranked #1880); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 9: start level 21 (ranked #1434); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 10: start level 23 (ranked #1111); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 11: start level 24 (ranked #855); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 12: start level 26 (ranked #664); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 13: start level 28 (ranked #514); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 14: start level 29 (ranked #380); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 15: start level 31 (ranked #292); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 16: start level 32 (ranked #221); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 17: start level 33 (ranked #178); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 18: start level 35 (ranked #140); win against -Stef-
game 19: start level 36 (ranked #107); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 20: start level 37 (ranked #84); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 21: start level 38 (ranked #68); win against -Stef-
game 22: start level 39 (ranked #51); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 23: start level 40 (ranked #38); win against Marin
game 24: start level 41 (ranked #29); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 25: start level 42 (ranked #25); win against -Stef-
game 26: start level 43 (ranked #21); win against Marin
game 27: start level 44 (ranked #19); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 28: start level 45 (ranked #14); win against -Stef-
game 29: start level 46 (ranked #10); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 30: start level 47 (ranked #5); win against Marin
game 31: start level 47 (ranked #4); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 32: start level 48 (ranked #1); win against -Stef-
game 33: start level 49 (ranked #1); win against Marin
game 34: start level 50 (ranked #1); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 35: start level 50 (ranked #1); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
ranked #1, level 51


I don't know if this is the fastest way to do it.  (Like, is it ever better to win against a lower-ranked player, maybe because they have a smaller variance?)

[O]

This is easy to simulate.  Starting with today's leaderboard, assuming no other games happen in the meantime and all games take place in the same day, it takes 31 games for a new player to get to #1, and 35 games to get to level 51 (by always winning a 2-player game against the top-ranked player that is not himself).

game 1: start level 0 (ranked #18056); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 2: start level 3 (ranked #10348); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 3: start level 6 (ranked #7268); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 4: start level 9 (ranked #5400); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 5: start level 12 (ranked #4125); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 6: start level 14 (ranked #3168); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 7: start level 17 (ranked #2437); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 8: start level 19 (ranked #1880); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 9: start level 21 (ranked #1434); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 10: start level 23 (ranked #1111); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 11: start level 24 (ranked #855); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 12: start level 26 (ranked #664); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 13: start level 28 (ranked #514); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 14: start level 29 (ranked #380); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 15: start level 31 (ranked #292); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 16: start level 32 (ranked #221); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 17: start level 33 (ranked #178); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 18: start level 35 (ranked #140); win against -Stef-
game 19: start level 36 (ranked #107); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 20: start level 37 (ranked #84); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 21: start level 38 (ranked #68); win against -Stef-
game 22: start level 39 (ranked #51); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 23: start level 40 (ranked #38); win against Marin
game 24: start level 41 (ranked #29); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 25: start level 42 (ranked #25); win against -Stef-
game 26: start level 43 (ranked #21); win against Marin
game 27: start level 44 (ranked #19); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 28: start level 45 (ranked #14); win against -Stef-
game 29: start level 46 (ranked #10); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 30: start level 47 (ranked #5); win against Marin
game 31: start level 47 (ranked #4); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 32: start level 48 (ranked #1); win against -Stef-
game 33: start level 49 (ranked #1); win against Marin
game 34: start level 50 (ranked #1); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
game 35: start level 50 (ranked #1); win against Obi Wan Bonogi
ranked #1, level 51


I don't know if this is the fastest way to do it.  (Like, is it ever better to win against a lower-ranked player, maybe because they have a smaller variance?)

31 games to get to #1 after tanking the top players ratings 

[Obi Wan Bonogi]

Looks like I had a bad day   

[Captain_Frisk]

Looks like I had a bad day   

So -So i'm currently ranked 14 or so... that means 6 consecutive wins against OWB and I get #1?  OWB, what are you doing this weekend?

[Thisisnotasmile]

Looks like I had a bad day   

And yet after a day of going 0-26, with many of those games against a VERY low ranked player, you're still apparently rank 2-4.

[qmech]

Looks like I had a bad day   

So -So i'm currently ranked 14 or so... that means 6 consecutive wins against OWB and I get #1?  OWB, what are you doing this weekend?

That might not quite work: if you have lower variance than the new account then TrueSkill will put part of your amazing streak down to luck, so you won't get the same reward.

[ARTjoMS]

I think around 150 games is realistically possible.

For me it took like 194 games with ~60% win percentage, but tbh then it didn't need lvl 51 to be 1st in leaderboard.

I might try it again for fun.

[WanderingWinder]

If it's really so easy to sim....
2 player games you've shown.
What about 3 player? 4 player? Go ahead and assume you're playing the other top couple guys, with the optimal order being you getting first, top rated gets last, next-highest rating gets second-last, etc.