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[Axxle]

theory, early bandwagons are very hard for mafia to ignore, moreso when they're inexperienced.  Sometimes they want to hammer early and cast the deciding vote, sometimes they clamor for action and hope that someone slips up and casts the deciding vote.  I strongly believe that one of the mafia is in the early voting pool of TINAS.  Most people expressed the thought that TINAS is mafia, but you've been a little more vocal.  The reasons that TINAS put forth mirror mine in order to put you slightly ahead of Robz (for thinking he was quick-hammering) or Ozle (for being quick to judge and a little lurky). (ftl and I were kind of there too, but these are my prime suspects)

[Axxle]

So, some time has passed, nothing's happening. I guess it's the dead part of the day, middle of the workday. And I'm too nervous to cast a potentially deciding vote.
 

Nothing else that I have said even comes close to being a mistake,

Well, at the very least claiming to be a vanilla townie is a mistake, isn't it? If it's true, then the mafia know who not to kill when cop-or-doctor-hunting. (It's a mistake if it's true. And if it's not, well, then you're a mafia and should be lynched...)

It was a mistake.  If he's a role and we lynched him the town would be at a huge disadvantage, if he's not mafia the mafia Rolecop can just check his role to verify.

[goober]

You could classify TINAS' play as a mistake from the perspective that it made him appear suspicious and almost got him lynched, which is bad for his side whichever side it is, but the ability of the mafia to rolecop him has nothing to do with it. That ability is a precious resource for them, and sure they can check up on TINAS to verify, but that just means they can't check up on someone else.

[O]

Robz's strategy is pretty clearly just to swing the hammer quickly regardless. Unless he's mafia in both this game and the other mafia game 

[Robz888]

Speaking of me swinging hammers, I'm about to launch into a conspiracy theory. I re-read the whole thing from beginning to end. It's not easy--you start to forget whether O said something, or was it the other 'O', Ozle, and where does ftl stand... etc. etc. Confusing stuff!

Since we are in such a stalemate, with half suspecting theory and half suspecting TINAS, I wondered if it's possible that neither of them is mafia. So I tried to look through the past posts with that thought in mind.

I must say--and this is a new accusation from me--that Axxle looks far and away the most suspicious when you go over everything again. I know everyone is worried about all the bandwagoning that theory and Ozle did, but really, if they were mafia, how could they possibly try to get away with such obvious play? I suspect--and I know this from real life--that mafia are hedgers. They hedge their bets. They vote for someone but cast doubt on the vote and accuse others, so that when the lynch inevitably fails to reveal a mafia, they can look smart and lead the next kill.

Axxle has hedged all over the place. He is Mr. Hedger. He cast the first and initial vote for TINAS but took it back before theory, ozle, and me made ours. Then he said he would cast the deciding vote for TINAS, then maintained that he still would but mentioned that he wasn't sure about it and suspected others, and then when momentum shifted toward theory he went that way.

I know that bandwagoning is a mafia strategy--an obvious one. What if Axxle is a mafia member playing a much more intelligent game? What if he arranged things--the TINAS situation at the beginning--so that others would bandwagon. And then Axxle became this big proponent of saying you are suspicious if you do that.

I know from reading over the logs that Goober and maybe someone else had some Axxle suspicions. I would like to hear if those suspicions still exist.

[O]

I'm going to stick with my theory that Axxle was accusing TINAS as some sort of information draw. I kind of brought up these concerns (which you ignored when I posted..) but decided ultimately that Axxle is a pretty unlikely choice, and pretty genius if he is mafia.

Axxle did not start on theory when people started shifting towards theory.. because there WAS NO shift towards theory, really. There was more of a shift away from TINAS more than anything else.

Maybe I'm just biased because he backed me up and declared me almost certainly town, which is true  .

I think we can safely disqualify Ozle from being mafia, because who's ever heard of a mafia member not owning a hat?!

[Robz888]

I'm going to stick with my theory that Axxle was accusing TINAS as some sort of information draw. I kind of brought up these concerns (which you ignored when I posted..)

I did ignore them, I'm sorry. 

but decided ultimately that Axxle is a pretty unlikely choice, and pretty genius if he is mafia.

I think he may be a genius mafia.

Axxle did not start on theory when people started shifting towards theory.. because there WAS NO shift towards theory, really. There was more of a shift away from TINAS more than anything else.

He didn't start on him, no. That's because he refuses to bandwagon anyone himself... all the better to later accuse these bandwagoners of being mafia. Look at this recent post from him!

theory, early bandwagons are very hard for mafia to ignore, moreso when they're inexperienced.  Sometimes they want to hammer early and cast the deciding vote, sometimes they clamor for action and hope that someone slips up and casts the deciding vote.  I strongly believe that one of the mafia is in the early voting pool of TINAS.  Most people expressed the thought that TINAS is mafia, but you've been a little more vocal.  The reasons that TINAS put forth mirror mine in order to put you slightly ahead of Robz (for thinking he was quick-hammering) or Ozle (for being quick to judge and a little lurky). (ftl and I were kind of there too, but these are my prime suspects)

He's an evil genius! He created the situation whereby he could make this claim of all those people!

Maybe I'm just biased because he backed me up and declared me almost certainly town, which is true  .

I think we can safely disqualify Ozle from being mafia, because who's ever heard of a mafia member not owning a hat?!

I hear ya, and like twice earlier on I wrote something like, "I agree completely with Axxle!" Axxle's friendship was quite dear to me. But now I know it was all lies. Well, I don't know. I suspect!

[Thisisnotasmile]

So we're 5 days through our 10 day deadline and we're apparently pretty much decided on today's lynch (choice of two) and starting to think about the next. Do we really need to drag this out for another five days?

[Thisisnotasmile]

(Not trying to rush any decisions, just a bit bored of waiting for something to happen now. If there's any particular information you're waiting on, please feel free to let us know so we can help you out.)

[Davio]

So we're 5 days through our 10 day deadline and we're apparently pretty much decided on today's lynch (choice of two) and starting to think about the next. Do we really need to drag this out for another five days?

I'm not one for dragging things along.

I don't get why ftl is hesitant to cast a deciding vote. As if that vote matters any more than previous votes for the same guy he will vote for. It's like a football competition where a team falls back to a lower division at the end of the season in the last match. It's not like they lost the entire season in that match.

What I would like to see is people to just make up their minds already. Pick someone, stick with it and get some results. It's like my brother trying to pick what he wants for his main course? "Shall I have the spare ribs or the steak..." I hate it when people can't choose.

Look, I understand if you have to pick between dropping a nuclear bomb or not, but this is still a game with loads of uncertainty and it's not like your choice is going to change the course of human history. And I understand that you guys desperately want to make the right choice, but I don't think we'll get much more info at this point, barring someone who is being eaten alive by his conscience and can't bear keeping secrets anymore. I think the only way forward is to actually lynch someone.

And yes, I know that my anxiousness to lynch someone can look suspicious, but if anyone wants to waste time suspecting me then just go ahead, it's not my time you're wasting.

[Thisisnotasmile]

I AM NOW SUSPiCIOUS OF DAVIO. IF NOBODY CAN CONVINCE ME OTHERWISE I WILL SWITCH MY VOTE TO HIM IN PRECISELY 7 HOURS 12 MINUTES AND 41 SECONDS. [/obvious joke]

[ftl]

Eh, mostly I was just hesitant because I had no idea what's going on, and was back to questioning everything I thought I had an idea about before. And whoever I thought about voting for, I'd feel stupid if the other guy ended up Mafia and we let him go after being so close. Feeling n00by I guess. 

..I'm tempted to put in "Vote: Th ...and then leave the sentence unfinished.

It's time to decide, though.
Vote: Theory

Let's hope we get something to go on afterwards.

[Ozle]

Is that 5 for theory now?
I'm not quite sure what he did wrong except cast an early vote on the first day(not even the earliest) but I guess you others saw something I didn't if he is mafia.
If he isn't mafia I shall certainly be looking close ly at who voted for him and why!

I'm still allowed to talk now right until its officially night?

[Davio]

I'm still allowed to talk now right until its officially night?

I think so. In fact, I don't see why not.

[theory]

It appears that I am being lynched.

As you will soon see, I am a townie.  I understand why the Mafia is lynching me: I have clearly set forth a case against one or more of their members.  I am extremely disappointed in my fellow townies.  For three more of you to be fooled by their FUD is astonishing to me, and quite dismaying.  If you re-read the topic I believe you will see that the case against me is a complete and utter sham.  No one has ever stated a case for lynching me other than the fact that I targeted TINAS early on, and that I have not wavered from that position.  This is the behavior of a townie.  Not a mafioso.  Real mafia hedge.  They deceive.  They waver back and forth.  They act suspiciously.

As my death approaches, it has become blatantly obvious to me who the real mafia are.  I leave it up to you all to avenge my death.  I pray that in the night, we are able to protect those that are true townies, those that are not so easily manipulated by the mafia.

[theory]

Also, I'd like a link to the quicktopic now, please.

[Ozle]

As my death approaches, it has become blatantly obvious to me who the real mafia are.  I leave it up to you all to avenge my death.  I pray that in the night, we are able to protect those that are true townies, those that are not so easily manipulated by the mafia.

You are not officially dead yet I believe, only until pops comes along. So your still able to name those blatantly obvious mafia people before you go!

[Thisisnotasmile]

Yeah. If you were town, you are perfectly within your rights to now out the mafia, if you know who they are, and this is obviously a good move to make. The fact that you claim to know who mafia are, but are not willing to give names just reassures me that you are one of them.

Feeling confident about this now.

(Also, thanks guys. I'll make sure you don't regret it).

[theory]

It's a question for the philosophers, I suppose, whether I "win" even if I am dead when the mafia are exterminated.

Regardless, I have no desire to help this town any longer    They ought to figure it out themselves, without the benefit of me broadcasting the names of the obvious mafia members for all (mafia and non-mafia alike) to know.

[theory]

For instance, note the difference in reactions to my post.  Who is preparing an alibi for later?

[The legality of all this twilight talk feels weird.]

[Ozle]

It's a question for the philosophers, I suppose, whether I "win" even if I am dead when the mafia are exterminated.

Regardless, I have no desire to help this town any longer    They ought to figure it out themselves, without the benefit of me broadcasting the names of the obvious mafia members for all (mafia and non-mafia alike) to know.

By the rules, if we win, you win the game as well (assuming you really are town)

And you are not dead yet, still a chance to convince someone to unvote you and change to someone else (Obviously this is unlikely though) and the best way to do that would be to name names!

[theory]

My understanding is that votes can no longer be changed, because once we hit 5 it is locked.

[Thisisnotasmile]

For instance, note the difference in reactions to my post.  Who is preparing an alibi for later?

[The legality of all this twilight talk feels weird.]

Well only me and Ozle have posted since your post. I've reread both of our posts and it doesn't seem to me like either of us are preparing an alibi. I'm confused.

[popsofctown]

I'm short on time, but THREAD LOCKED.

I should be able to make an elaborate lynch scene sometime today.

[popsofctown]

(Characters appear in voter order)

Everyone gathered in the Gardens and to hash things out.  Someone had killed pops.  Pops cared for everyone else's Gardens, so someone didn't really care about his Gardens.  Someone was plotting to defect with a different strategy, Provinces or, even sicker, Colonies.

Davio said, "Theory seems suspicious to me! Thisisnotasmile, go take a peek in his window".

Thisisnotasmile moved ahead and peered through the glass of Theory's house in the Hamlet.  "I see a paper on the table.  I can't quite read it."

O spied something in the flower bed.  "Hey, it's a Navigator's telescope!  Let's use it to get a close look".

"You and your circular objects" Axxle remarked.

O looked through his telescope (well, actually theory's Navigator's telescope, but hey, sometimes Gardeners like to be Thieves) at the paper on the table.

"It's a Loan!!" O said.

ftl quickly connected the dots.  "No way would a Gardens player ever have a Loan!  It trashes Coppers.  He's secretly a Province player!  Let's lynch him!!

The five of them grabbed their pitchforks and formed a Militia.  They found Theory, and brought him back to his own front yard.  They threw him on the ground.  Theory spluttered, "Wait! I can explain!".  But ftl needed no explanation.  He threw his pitchfork through theory's back, all the way into the dirt.

Dirt which then spurted Gold.  Everyone was confused.  They struck with their pitchforks too, and more and more Gold came.

They took theory's key from his pocket and went in his house.  They read the Loan more carefully.  "Never paid.  Your loan is overdue theory, interest has doubled."  But 9 coppers were sitting right there on a table!  They went down the stairs to check out his Cellar, and found carved into it a vast network of Tunnels.  With horror, they realized their mistake.  Theory had never and would never trash a copper.  He was piling out Tunnels, 2 VP for 3$, a real Gardens man's bargain.  The Loan would trigger it and increase his Gardens count.  Maybe questionable, but Gardens loyal for sure.  They found no evidence of power in his house, he was just a regular guy.


No bolded flip because I worked so hard on the flavor..
Night actions in 48 hours by PM, please.