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[Axxle]

I'll humor the "TINAS is mafia" sentiment for a minute. If it's true, it means TINAS outed and orchestrated the death of his co-mafia, Mafia Rolecop Ozle, immediately on Day 2. It would mean that this was an agreed to plan between Ozle and TINAS. That seems... farfetched. It's true that claiming cop and killing Ozle bought TINAS a lot of good will with us, but... it seems like a crazy thing to do, getting rid of one of the mafia to partially cover the other.

If it was anyone but TINAS I'd be more skeptical myself.  Probably be still trying to figure out what's really going on.  But it is TINAS, and I wouldn't put anything past him.

[Robz888]

So friends, what are we thinking? I am still assuming I am ultimately going to vote for Axxle, but I'm curious to see if other people think we should pursue Ftl's No Lynch plan. I'm not necessarily opposed to it but it might be bad for reasons I haven't thought of.

[Axxle]

So friends, what are we thinking? I am still assuming I am ultimately going to vote for Axxle, but I'm curious to see if other people think we should pursue Ftl's No Lynch plan. I'm not necessarily opposed to it but it might be bad for reasons I haven't thought of.

I have a theory on how ftl's plan will play out, but if I say anything it probably won't happen.  Suffice it to say I don't think it'll work as cleanly as you think.

[O]

....Why would TINAS wait to claim? My question still isn't answered yet.

I still can't figure out whether to vote AXXLE, TINAS or Nolynch.

[Thisisnotasmile]

If Axxle is mafia, Ftl's plan will work. If Axxle is mafia, lynching Axxle will work. If Axxle is not mafia, neither will work.

[Thisisnotasmile]

And I waited to claim because I was still semi-suspicious of Robz. I didn't want to announce my claim first and give him the opportunity to make up a story that fits in with it. I wanted him to announce first so I could make sure it fits with mine. Are people seriously suspicious of me? Seriously?

[O]

I'm still semi-suspicious of Robz. He has a tendency to make claims... 

And Ozle claimed he got jailed, which Robz backed up. Ozle was also Mafia. If Ozle and Robz conspired to set up a story for Robz, and try to misslynch TINAS, kill someone, Lynch Ozle (as he would be obviously Mafia), kill someone, then we'd be stuck in a 2-1 situation where Robz has a hard-to-debunk jailkeeper claim.

He DOES have the benefit of his story matching with TINAS.

All of this has convinced me that Davio is almost certainly town. The odds that neither TINAS or ROBZ are lying, that axxle jailed AND Davio tried to kill Axxle (or nolynched, which seems highly unlikely...) seem pretty slim.

So hopefully I want my votes to align with Davio and FTL. Obviously 2 of the 3 (OK, *at least* 2 of the three if you still suspect me at all) of Robz, TINAS and Axxle are still not mafia, so them voting with me doesn't immediately disqualify my opinion.

Keep in mind that my logic for thinking Davio is innocent also applies to myself... so if you agree with my assessment about Davio, it's also true that it's very unlikely that I'm mafia either.

[Axxle]

Keep in mind that my logic for thinking Davio is innocent also applies to myself... so if you agree with my assessment about Davio, it's also true that it's very unlikely that I'm mafia either.

Very convenient.   I don't think I've thought for a second that you were mafia, which is probably poor play on my part.

I was think jailing me and lynching TINAS (or vice versa) is what we probably will and should end up doing.  But now you're throwing out this doubt about Robz and it's making everything less clear (especially after TINAS's clarification on why he waited).  I still strongly believe in my earlier theory though.

So hopefully I want my votes to align with Davio and FTL

Then convince them, don't make them start suspecting everyone again.

[Axxle]

*was thinking

[Robz888]

I'm still semi-suspicious of Robz. He has a tendency to make claims... 

And Ozle claimed he got jailed, which Robz backed up. Ozle was also Mafia. If Ozle and Robz conspired to set up a story for Robz, and try to misslynch TINAS, kill someone, Lynch Ozle (as he would be obviously Mafia), kill someone, then we'd be stuck in a 2-1 situation where Robz has a hard-to-debunk jailkeeper claim.

He DOES have the benefit of his story matching with TINAS.

All of this has convinced me that Davio is almost certainly town. The odds that neither TINAS or ROBZ are lying, that axxle jailed AND Davio tried to kill Axxle (or nolynched, which seems highly unlikely...) seem pretty slim.

So hopefully I want my votes to align with Davio and FTL. Obviously 2 of the 3 (OK, *at least* 2 of the three if you still suspect me at all) of Robz, TINAS and Axxle are still not mafia, so them voting with me doesn't immediately disqualify my opinion.

Keep in mind that my logic for thinking Davio is innocent also applies to myself... so if you agree with my assessment about Davio, it's also true that it's very unlikely that I'm mafia either.

I understand the semi-suspicion of me because I was wrong about Ozle. But if you think I'm mafia, why would I kill no one last night? Certainly I should have killed TINAS, or at least somebody. It wouldn't make sense to miss a chance to kill.

In all overwhelming likelihood, everybody is who they said they are at this point, and either Axxle is mafia, or he was the target of the mafia. I'm fairly convinced he's the mafia, since he didn't vote for fellow mafia Ozle. If we're wrong about Axxle, I block O or Davio tonight, TINAS investigates one of them, and we have our answer via process of elimination.

VOTE: AXXLE

[Axxle]

Robz, if you don't suspect TINAS enough to even at least jail him tonight then he's already won.

[Thisisnotasmile]

Rediculous. Hilarious.

[Robz888]

Robz, if you don't suspect TINAS enough to even at least jail him tonight then he's already won.

If you remember, I suspected all the time on Day 1 and Day 2. I think I voted for him both days. But with the revelation that the other cop claimer was the Mafia Rolecop, really I can't not believe him at this point.

[ftl]

OK, yeah, the no lynch was sort of silly. Hey, it was late at night.

Really busy today, but I'll have time for a longer post/reread later.

[Axxle]

Robz, if you don't suspect TINAS enough to even at least jail him tonight then he's already won.

If you remember, I suspected all the time on Day 1 and Day 2. I think I voted for him both days. But with the revelation that the other cop claimer was the Mafia Rolecop, really I can't not believe him at this point.

I remember, but you're now making a mistake that I'm trying my hardest to prevent.  I've already explained how easy it is for TINAS to win in post #568, and you're doing exactly what he needs to do to solve that.  I implore you to reconsider. 

[Robz888]

Okay, we know Ozle was mafia. Let's pretend for a moment that TINAS was the other mafia. That means I am Jailkeeper! We can't all three be mafia! If you disbelieve TINAS, you must believe me.

If TINAS were mafia, it means that he chose to kill no one last night instead of killing me. Remember, I can't save myself. I can only save others. And I chose to block Axxle--and in this scenario you must believe me! Because TINAS is the other mafia and I am a rational Jalkeeper townie--rather than TINAS because I believed TINAS. So why does he pass the opportunity to kill me for free? There's no way he wins long-term by leaving me alive for more additional rounds for no reason.

Ok, now the reverse. TINAS is the cop, I am lying and a mafia. Why wouldn't I have killed TINAS instead of no one? TINAS is the cop, I can't keep him around. There's no one to protect him, since no one contradicted my Jailkeeper claim.

The mafia can't win by foregoing kills in the night. If either me or TINAS were lying and actually mafia, we could have and should have killed the other one. We can't both be mafia because Ozle is mafia. Therefore, we are both telling the truth.

[Axxle]

Okay, we know Ozle was mafia. Let's pretend for a moment that TINAS was the other mafia. That means I am Jailkeeper! We can't all three be mafia! If you disbelieve TINAS, you must believe me.

If TINAS were mafia, it means that he chose to kill no one last night instead of killing me. Remember, I can't save myself. I can only save others. And I chose to block Axxle--and in this scenario you must believe me! Because TINAS is the other mafia and I am a rational Jalkeeper townie--rather than TINAS because I believed TINAS. So why does he pass the opportunity to kill me for free? There's no way he wins long-term by leaving me alive for more additional rounds for no reason.

Ok, now the reverse. TINAS is the cop, I am lying and a mafia. Why wouldn't I have killed TINAS instead of no one? TINAS is the cop, I can't keep him around. There's no one to protect him, since no one contradicted my Jailkeeper claim.

The mafia can't win by foregoing kills in the night. If either me or TINAS were lying and actually mafia, we could have and should have killed the other one. We can't both be mafia because Ozle is mafia. Therefore, we are both telling the truth.

TINAS is mafia and didn't kill you because he was hoping you'd come to that conclusion and be completely unaccounted for till the end of the game.  Killing you or not the game would still last the same number of days.

[Axxle]

Queue TINAS posting something unhelpful.

[Axxle]

Rediculous. Hilarious.

(referring to this in above post)

[Thisisnotasmile]

Not really sure what you expect me to post that is "helpful" at this point. I've outed one mafia, helped to pinpoint the other. There's pretty much no analysis left to do. You either believe me, or you don't. Obviously you don't... well you do and you're just lying about it, but that's what you have to do at this point. I'm just watching and waiting really. Nothing left to say. My work is done.

[popsofctown]

The Herbalist showed up to tend to pops's Gardens.  Thisisnotasmile sadly informed her that pops had passed.  The Herbalist was very upset - pops had promised to pay her next week.

Vote Count
Axxle (2) - Thisisnotasmile, Robz
Thisisnotasmile (1) - Axxle
Not Voting - ftl, O, Davio

[O]

I think I'm going to have to go and revote axxle, and pray that if he isn't mafia, FTL and Davio share my logic
VOTE:AXXLE

[Axxle]

I think I'm going to have to go and revote axxle, and pray that if he isn't mafia, FTL and Davio share my logic
VOTE:AXXLE

That won't help if one of you wake up dead.  TINAS seems to be successfully pulling Robz's strings.

[O]

I think I'm going to have to go and revote axxle, and pray that if he isn't mafia, FTL and Davio share my logic
VOTE:AXXLE

That won't help if one of you wake up dead.  TINAS seems to be successfully pulling Robz's strings.

If both live tomorrow, maybe TINAS will say who he investigated first, and to what result, giving us better odds of confirmation.

[Axxle]

I think I'm going to have to go and revote axxle, and pray that if he isn't mafia, FTL and Davio share my logic
VOTE:AXXLE

That won't help if one of you wake up dead.  TINAS seems to be successfully pulling Robz's strings.

If both live tomorrow, maybe TINAS will say who he investigated first, and to what result, giving us better odds of confirmation.

Maybe... I hope you know what you're doing.  Be careful.