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Author Topic: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy  (Read 2904 times)

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BaruMonkey

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6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« on: April 23, 2012, 01:24:38 pm »
0

This ended up being a much faster game than I had anticipated.

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201204/23/game-20120423-101523-e46a7451.html

City, Courtyard, Horse Traders, Mine, Mining Village, Smugglers, Steward, Trader, Woodcutter, and Young Witch ( Loan♦)

I opened Steward/Silver, they opened Trader/Smugglers. Both of us ignored both Young Witch and its bane.

My buys, in order: Steward, Silver, Courtyard, Gold, -, Gold, Province, Province, Province, Gold, Province, Province, Province!
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dondon151

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Re: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2012, 02:31:18 pm »
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I like how for 5 of your Province buys, you drew exactly the $8 necessary!
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Captain_Frisk

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Re: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2012, 03:02:44 pm »
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I think Wandering Winder theory would have you buying duchy instead of that gold on T10, which probably would have prevented one of those final province buys. 

This is an example of damn near perfect shuffle luck (Turn 5 steward trashes the last 2 estates perfectly).  Also courtyard plays (t8 and t11) really helps to smooth out the money curve. 

That said - this is why Geronimooooooo is always warning us about fancy play syndrome.  The game just isn't that long!
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I support funsockets.... taking as much time as they need to get it right.

Young Nick

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Re: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2012, 07:51:05 pm »
+1

Reminds me of my 6 provinces in 14 turns...without buying a single action. Yeah, that's right, I had the following buys, in order:
Silver, Silver, Silver, Gold, Gold, Gold, Silver, Province, Province, Province, Province, Copper, Province, Province.

A great example of a horrible kingdom combined with beautiful luck. I only overspent 4 times: 2x$4 for a Silver, $7 for a Gold, $9 for a Province. Technically I had a Copper in hand that I didn't play when I bought the turn 12 Copper, but, still, that's $5 wasted over the course of the whole game!

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120421-173702-7939cd6a.html
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blueblimp

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Re: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2012, 08:30:06 pm »
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This is a good excuse to link again to the time I got 4 provinces in 11 turns with pure money:
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120209-163506-7ee9bdea.html
This speed of big money is literally 1 in 1000 games.

Buys: Silver, Silver, Silver, Silver, Gold, Gold, Silver, Province, Province, Province, Province, Duchy, Estate, Province

Nick's game trumps this though since he reaches 6 provinces in the time it took me to reach 5.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2012, 08:32:08 pm by blueblimp »
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Young Nick

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Re: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2012, 08:47:23 pm »
+1

Yes, this makes me wonder, without interaction (ie attacks, Masquerade, etc.), what is the fastest one can get to 4, 5, or 6 Provinces only buying basic treasures (no Platinum). I'm not surprised to see 1/1000 for 4 in 11. Is 4 in 10 possible? How about 5 in 12?
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blueblimp

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Re: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2012, 11:28:16 pm »
+1

Yes, this makes me wonder, without interaction (ie attacks, Masquerade, etc.), what is the fastest one can get to 4, 5, or 6 Provinces only buying basic treasures (no Platinum). I'm not surprised to see 1/1000 for 4 in 11. Is 4 in 10 possible? How about 5 in 12?

It's possible to do 4 provinces in 10 turns and 5 in 11:

Code: [Select]
ECCCC EECCC

1: Silver
2: Silver

SCCCE SCCCC EE

3: Silver
4: Gold

EEECS CCCSG CCCS

5: Silver
6: Province

CCCSG CCSSS EEEPC C

7: Province
8: Province
9: Nothing

CCCSG CCSSS EEEPP PCC

10: Province
11: Province

Getting lucky enough to get 4 provinces in 10 turns with only money is more of a 1 in 10,000 event, though! A while ago I wrote a simulation to estimate the probabilities (the confidence intervals for probabilities near zero are not very accurate):

Code: [Select]
  10 ->  0.003% +/- 0.002% with 99.0% confidence
  11 ->  0.104% +/- 0.008% with 99.0% confidence
  12 ->  0.393% +/- 0.016% with 99.0% confidence
  13 ->  1.666% +/- 0.033% with 99.0% confidence
  14 ->  9.859% +/- 0.077% with 99.0% confidence
  15 -> 15.810% +/- 0.094% with 99.0% confidence
  16 -> 20.551% +/- 0.104% with 99.0% confidence
  17 -> 21.817% +/- 0.106% with 99.0% confidence
  18 -> 14.437% +/- 0.091% with 99.0% confidence
  19 ->  8.907% +/- 0.073% with 99.0% confidence
  20 ->  4.585% +/- 0.054% with 99.0% confidence
  21 ->  1.654% +/- 0.033% with 99.0% confidence
  22 ->  0.146% +/- 0.010% with 99.0% confidence
  23 ->  0.045% +/- 0.005% with 99.0% confidence
  24 ->  0.017% +/- 0.003% with 99.0% confidence
  25 ->  0.004% +/- 0.002% with 99.0% confidence
  26 ->  0.001% +/- 0.001% with 99.0% confidence
« Last Edit: April 23, 2012, 11:49:31 pm by blueblimp »
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blueblimp

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Re: 6 provinces on turn 13 with nothing fancy
« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2012, 11:46:55 pm »
+2

In fact it's not too hard to prove that, with only basic treasure, it's impossible to get 4 provinces any faster than 10 turns. Suppose we're trying to buy our 4th province on turn 9.

Some assumptions are clear. Obviously you open Silver/Silver. In the 1st reshuffle, you have $11 total in your deck, but not the ability to buy a province (best possible hand is CCCSS), so might as well get a Silver and a Gold on turns 3 and 4.

Then, in the 2nd reshuffle, you have $16 exactly in your deck among 14 cards. However, $7 of that is in coppers, and it's not possible to buy a province when 4 coppers are in your hand, so only one province can be bought on turns 5 or 6. To buy your 4th province on turn 9, you need a province on one of those turns. The other turn can do no better than a Gold.

Finally, in the 3rd reshuffle, you have no more than $19 in your deck among 16 cards. Thus, there simply isn't enough money to buy a province on all of turns 7, 8, 9.

(The only way to avoid this problem would be to buy nothing on two turns so that turn 9 would come after the 4th reshuffle. But to do this, you'd need to give up two Silver buys at least, so during the 3rd reshuffle, you would only have $15 in deck, not enough to buy two provinces.)
« Last Edit: April 23, 2012, 11:53:08 pm by blueblimp »
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