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[RisingJaguar]

Game 7:Yeah I think early moat is better than an additional fishing village.  It does facilitate as some sort of draw as you have oodles of fishing villages. 

Game 9: I forgot about the platinum, but even then that's part of the problem.  Platinum doesn't do you much good with no +buy firstly and taking up another spot where one witch is your only card draw with oodles of fishing villages/remake.   Plus it took you two shuffles to get to it.  I just don't think the money was all that important at that stage, attacking was. 
$4 should probably be worker's village. 
If council room isn't your type of card there (I think it's worth it to make use of your remakes properly and play witch more often), then witch on that province turn is still good. 
Oh I know you have 3 witches to his two, but he gets two much faster, and with his deck thinner, he's able to play them SO much more and he's got a council room too. 

[DG]

Game 9: Can someone explain how I lose the curse war 8-2? Yes, I probably over-buy remake, but with so many FVs, I'm looking to get the 5-cost draw cards, which just never happens for me really until it's way too late.

You filled your deck with fishing villages and remakes that ate up your hand each turn. The mid game needed a faster deck with faster cycling from witches and council rooms, creating a large hand size with choice to apply remake/expand without killing spending. That's what Marin engineered and that's why I said you should have taken more worker's villages. Plus one card is better than plus one coin in a deck where your worst card is silver or better.  As it turned out the witch was the very last card of your deck one turn; unlucky but only possible because you filled the deck with slow cycling cards like fishing villages and remakes.

Generally I think you were taking too many slow cards, silvers and fishing villages, instead of cycling and speed for engines. Game 2 is the prime example where he got slightly better draws on turns 3 and 4 but was able to accelerate much faster with a dynamic deck. There's a reason why silver has the second highest "win without" rate in the council room stats.

[ARTjoMS]

Game 9: Can someone explain how I lose the curse war 8-2? Yes, I probably over-buy remake, but with so many FVs, I'm looking to get the 5-cost draw cards, which just never happens for me really until it's way too late.

Get council room in 2nd shuffle and stop buying fishing village - remake, which is not the best combo...

[WanderingWinder]

Game 9: Can someone explain how I lose the curse war 8-2? Yes, I probably over-buy remake, but with so many FVs, I'm looking to get the 5-cost draw cards, which just never happens for me really until it's way too late.

Get council room in 2nd shuffle and stop buying fishing village - remake, which is not the best combo...

So you're telling me that on turn 6, I should have bought COUNCIL ROOM and not play the remake?

Everyone: I understand that you're telling me mostly to NOT do X, but really what I need is do Y instead. And more specifically than "buy draw cards". Because let me tell you, I knew I needed to do that, I just didn't do it the right way apparently. So clearly, my problem is mostly that I don't know how to get that done here. And I still don't. Tell me "buy this here instead of that), etc. etc. So far the only specific advice that fits this is ARTjoMS's idea to buy the council room, which I'm leery of, but hey, I s'pose it might be right - there's definitely at least some logic to it - and the 'buy worker's villages' advice. The WVs probably help a little, but I find it hard to think that will overcome the difference. Are you guys telling me that it will?

[philosophyguy]

Re Game 9: I think you're ok Remaking on turn 6, but turn 7 I would pass on the Remake in favor of the Council Room (or another Witch). After turn 6 you've cleared out 4 of your starting cards, but the only draw you have is from the one Witch. If you trash Coppers on turn 7, you'll need a lot of luck to draw your Remakes (plural!) with anything worth trashing/upgrading. If you get more drawing power on turn 7 instead, you'll have a much better chance of lining up your Remakes with your remaining starting cards.

[philosophyguy]

I'm thinking about the Wharf game where he grabbed the early Throne Rooms (Youtube: ; Councilroom link: http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120414-143416-fa0d6fe6.html). Let's start by stipulating that he got extremely lucky to have his Throne Room collide with the Wharf immediately, and that had a big impact on the game.

Having said that—I'm not sure it's a totally idiotic play. Whether it's optimal is another question, but it's not entirely illogical. At 4, there's only a couple of options. Any of the action cards—Village, Bishop, and TR—run the risk of being dead draws with the Wharf. He could go for a Potion, but at this point he isn't drawing his whole deck and so the Potion might collide with another important buy opportunity (like a Haggler). If he were consistently drawing $8 the Potion might make sense because he could buy Familiar with a $5, but not yet. The other option is Silver, but he doesn't really need more Treasure yet—he can hit $5 consistently in the next shuffle and the $5 cards are far more important at this point than the increased odds of hitting $6. So, a Throne Room is a purchase that is probably going to be useless this shuffle but will be extremely useful in the next shuffle, when he's got Wharfs and Hagglers aplenty to target. The only other choice that makes sense is Village, and a) Village is only useful if he draws it alongside Wharf as well, so it runs the same risks as TR in the next shuffle, and b) it has far less upside than TR if he does get lucky. Given that he'll be able to pick up tons of Villages with Hagglers, whereas he can't get Throne Rooms with Haggler after purchasing a $5 card, I think there's a case to be made for the Throne Room move.

[ARTjoMS]

Game 9: Can someone explain how I lose the curse war 8-2? Yes, I probably over-buy remake, but with so many FVs, I'm looking to get the 5-cost draw cards, which just never happens for me really until it's way too late.

Get council room in 2nd shuffle and stop buying fishing village - remake, which is not the best combo...

So you're telling me that on turn 6, I should have bought COUNCIL ROOM and not play the remake?

Actually I meant 2nd shuffle where you bought witch instead. It is all about tempo in this stage and council room is the only card that gives you it. Then go and pick up some witches. What i tried to say is that you still have 7 coppers and an estate in your deck and you want to play remake as often as possible. If you get that council room+remake turn you can actually remake your trash and buy something useful.

[Insomniac]

I'm no where near the level that you're at but I think one problem I see is that you undervalue card draw when you're playing an engine. I noticed this in game 10 and 12.

Specifically in game 10 warehouse is gonna give you the early sift reach and Margrave is gonna give you the card draw to recover from the hand size attacks to get multiple bazaar/goons plays since your both going to be playing with 3 card hands all game. I also don't like the third remake you purchased as it's a terminal collision that shrinks your hand when the game is about to take off with the attacks every turn.

EDIT: Of course you yourself noticed this in the videos so I don't know how helpful this is

Just my 2 cents

[Geronimoo]

Having watched the majority of WW's videos, I think he has a small leak overbuying terminals. It's often correct to buy multiple terminals because the advantage they give you will outweigh the cost of collision. However there's always a treshold where too many terminals will hurt you more than help and I have a feeling WW sometimes crosses that line and should buy a Silver instead of yet another of that "insert power $5 card".

I can't prove this with numbers, just a feeling I often get watching his videos.

[Lekkit]

There is no such thing as overbuying terminals, only underbuying Villages.

[Captain_Frisk]

There is no such thing as overbuying terminals, only underbuying Villages.

I know this is meant to be a joke, but this is often the feeling I get when playing against Marin.

[Fabian]

There is no such thing as overbuying terminals, only underbuying Villages.

Where's the -1 button?

[gorgonstar]

Game 10:  Marin has $8 and two buys from goons.  He buys a Margrave and declines to buy a silver even though it is worth a VP for him.  He has 3 silvers in his deck already and that's plenty for him.  WW has 7 silvers in his deck.  Marin's slimmer deck allows him to cycle through his deck to play triple goons and win.

[Geronimoo]

Played a game yesterday against Marin. He went for a silly Festival/Moat engine while I went for a more standard Alchemist deck. All was going more or less according to plan and then my 2 Potions decide to hide on the bottom of my deck turn 16. I completely tilted and trashed them in the next turn which very likely cost me the (easy) game.

I guess he really has some kind of voodoo power

[Empathy]

Played a game yesterday against Marin. He went for a silly Festival/Moat engine while I went for a more standard Alchemist deck. All was going more or less according to plan and then my 2 Potions decide to hide on the bottom of my deck turn 16. I completely tilted and trashed them in the next turn which very likely cost me the (easy) game.

I guess he really has some kind of voodoo power

The way I read the start of the game, Marin adapted well to 'awkward' draws (T3 would you have bought potion with 5$?, T4 he does not trigger reschuffle to not skip his upgrade and moat). I agree that alchemist is the stronger engine, but how would you have reacted to Marin's hands? I think he just wanted to add festivals/moats to an alchemist deck that was trailing behind, because his initial draw did not favor him going head-first into alchemist arms-race. Also, alchemist does help moats connect with festivals, making it very likely that each festival/moat is basically a market. A plethora of festivals allows him to squeeze out every single dollar out of each hand (Your $/hand graphs are identical up to T16, and you don't use all of it). He ended up losing the alchemist race badly (T11 maybe trash silver=>potion instead of copper?) but his deck had a lot more money in total, with all those virtual markets and the the two plats. This gave him an edge in the greening phase. Now of course, the potion draws on your side did not help, and you probably had a higher chance of winning (imo, mostly caused by the first reschuffle) in the 'average' outcome.

meh, maybe I'm just irked by the fact that a top player actually thinks a 1-card strategy is fundamentally better than a 3 card one. I can't say for sure what Marin's plays did to his winning probability (in both possible directions), but he definitely tried to adapt and squeeze out what he could.

[WanderingWinder]

meh, maybe I'm just irked by the fact that a top player actually thinks a 1-card strategy is fundamentally better than a 3 card one. I can't say for sure what Marin's plays did to his winning probability (in both possible directions), but he definitely tried to adapt and squeeze out what he could.

I don't know why that irks you. It's very often true. BM Wharf is better than thief-transmute-counting house. Now, the three cards here actually have some synergy to work together. But it look at festival-moat. It gives you... 2 money, no net cards, no net actions, a buy. Alchemist gives you a card, no money, no buys. So the festival moat is a little better, except... it's a little harder to get? And more importantly, you need to draw them together. Not 100% sure which is 'right'.
By the way, it seems to me that one of Marin's best skills is coming up with exotic combinations that make you say "WHAT?" but which aren't actually bad at all. And always engines.

[Voltgloss]

Also, alchemist does help moats connect with festivals, making it very likely that each festival/moat is basically a market.

Not only were his Festivals and Moats effectively Markets (well, the combo gives half as many Buys as Markets, but there wasn't a need here for more than 3 buys in any given turn), but they were Markets where every other "Market" cost only $2.  With Festival's natural +Buy, it was simple for Marin to get what was effectively $10 worth of "Markets" with only $7, by buying Festival/Moat - something he does no less than 4 times over the course of the game.

Moat gets a bad rap usually, but it has one fairly unique trait:  It is one of the only hand-size-increasers that costs only $2.  (The others, of course, being Courtyard and Crossroads.)  Festival is also fairly unique (and powerful) in that it gives +2 Actions and +$2;  a combo that no other card can reproduce without self-trashing (Mining Village) or luck (Tribute).  Festival's weakness is its lack of draw.  Moat's weakness is that it is just not that powerful.  But Festival's +Buy makes it easy to pick up Moats (because they are so cheap) without slowing down Festival acquisition; and Moat's +2 Cards mitigates Festival's weakness.

Another way of looking at it:  Festival/Moat together is functionally equivalent to a Grand Market.  The drawbacks are that (1) you need to draw them together, and (2) to buy them in one turn, you need $7 and 2 buys, instead of $6.  The benefits are that (1) you can buy them with Coppers; and (2) you can, if needed, buy the pieces of the combo separately on a less-than-$7 turn.  If there's some way to mitigate drawback #1 - and here there was (i.e., light trashing) - the combo looks pretty solid, as once it gets going it makes it much easier to buy more "pseudo Grand Markets" (Festival/Moat combo buys).  Just like Grand Market itself.

I think the key lesson from this game is that Festival/Moat is less silly than it seems. 

[Empathy]

meh, maybe I'm just irked by the fact that a top player actually thinks a 1-card strategy is fundamentally better than a 3 card one. I can't say for sure what Marin's plays did to his winning probability (in both possible directions), but he definitely tried to adapt and squeeze out what he could.

I don't know why that irks you. It's very often true. BM Wharf is better than thief-transmute-counting house. Now, the three cards here actually have some synergy to work together. But it look at festival-moat. It gives you... 2 money, no net cards, no net actions, a buy. Alchemist gives you a card, no money, no buys. So the festival moat is a little better, except... it's a little harder to get? And more importantly, you need to draw them together. Not 100% sure which is 'right'.
By the way, it seems to me that one of Marin's best skills is coming up with exotic combinations that make you say "WHAT?" but which aren't actually bad at all. And always engines.

Oh, I agree, most kingdoms favor streamlined strategies. Quite often, the best strategy is a well-known 2-card strategy, though just as often, it's one of the best strategy, and just happens to be more often rehearsed. I am still unsure whether Veto helps or hinders the phenomenon.

I just think that, if the positions had been reversed and Geronimo had had Marin's initial draw and gone alchemist with a silver down, the game would not have been worth posting.

I completely agree with the festival/moat vs alchemist analysis. festival/moat is a bit better than alchemist (also cheaper and makes you use up every single drop of money), but alchemist has definitely the more stable average scenario. On the flip side, it has a lot more lower tail, as shown in the game. Difficult call, and interesting game.


edit: @Voltgoss: I still wouldn't play festival/moat without upgrade/alchemists to support it .

[Voltgloss]

edit: @Voltgoss: I still wouldn't play festival/moat without upgrade/alchemists to support it .

I agree re: Upgrade, or at least SOME method of light trashing (which I mentioned in my post), but I'm not sure Alchemist was really necessary for Marin.  Marin had $5 on the turn he bought Potion;  I'm wondering if Royal Seal would have been a better option.  When you're repeatedly buying a two-card combo, the ability to topdeck it on purchase becomes very handy; and when greening in the endgame, you'd much rather one of your treasures be a functional Silver rather than a functional nothing.

I note that if Marin's Potion buy were a Royal Seal, he'd have been able to buy/topdeck Festival/Moat on turn 8 (when he bought his first Alchemist).  And with that extra +$2 in turn 9, he could have bought his first Platinum that turn (and still bought a Platinum on turn 10 as well). 

[dondon151]

I think the key lesson from this game is that Festival/Moat is less silly than it seems.

wait what

I remember playing a game in an IRL tournament where I picked a strategy using Labs and Markets against someone else whose strategy was a Festival/Courtyard drawing engine (which is ever so slightly better than Moat) and completely crushed the guy. Chapel was present in the kingdom for trashing to help Festival and Courtyard collide early on.

We're giving Festival/Moat way too much credit here. It's like thinking that action-heavy strategies that are also dependent on handsize complement well with Inn. It just doesn't work nearly as well in practice as it does in theory.

Now, sure, when you have 9 Festivals and 5 Moats, of course you're in a good spot, but I wouldn't attribute that to Festival/Moat being a good strategy as opposed to the fact that when you have a critical mass of mediocre cards that combo together, you're going to pull something out of your ass.

[Geronimoo]

Apparently Marin's voodoo powers extend outside of isotropic... Festival/Watchtower, now there's an engine, Festival/Moat is just ... spinning your wheels...

[WanderingWinder]

Apparently Marin's voodoo powers extend outside of isotropic... Festival/Watchtower, now there's an engine, Festival/Moat is just ... spinning your wheels...

I'm not saying it's good. I'm saying it's not as bad as you think.

[Empathy]

Apparently Marin's voodoo powers extend outside of isotropic... Festival/Watchtower, now there's an engine, Festival/Moat is just ... spinning your wheels...

You have 6 alchemists. That means you start with a 12 card hand. You have 20$ total in your deck, spread over 30 cards (25 on T16). That means that, without other drawers, your average alchemist hand will be 10$ (12$ on T16) if you keep up the loop (which is not guaranteed with 12cards/24).

Marin has 48$ over 40 cards (30 on T16), of which 11 are 'cantrips' (assuming moat/festival pair as 2 markets) and 3 labs. That means just a 10$ hand on average (13$ on T16).

So as long as your loop does not break, you have an edge. The moment it breaks, he has an edge. Marin doesn't need a loop to function, though the alchemist bonus can sometimes provide a boost.

So he has limited downside, you have limited upside. Non-linear bets are hard to value, and going for the 'typical' scenario tricky. The simulator can probably tell you what the probability of your loop collapsing is.

My quick computation is 17/19 * 16/18 *... *6/8 = 0.123 for not drawing 2 potions amongst the 19 non-alchemist cards, assuming you play all 6 alchemists. The half-life of your loop is around 5 turns.

Your turn 16 had a probability of roughly 20% to happen at exactly that turn, given the initial hand.

I agree moat/festival is no engine. But then, neither are 6 alchemists with one plat in a 25 card deck. The way I visualize this, your probability distribution has some probability p of producing a steady flow of money, and q of fizzling (because of low moneyness). His just produces on average 10ish dollars a turn, with more 'gaussian' swings around this mean. His variance is high, but because of the number of buys he has he can make more out of the higher numbers (though not hitting 11/8 will hurt).

[blueblimp]

Another way of looking at it:  Festival/Moat together is functionally equivalent to a Grand Market.

This is a good analogy. Festival/Moat is not an engine. It's a Grand Market that sometimes doesn't work (if the festival/moat count in your draw is unbalanced).

[DG]

It's still another example game where Geronimoo buys too many treasures (one extra gold that should have been an upgrade) and Marin sticks to his engine concept for a win, even though he's actually making a very meagre engine.

I've had a play around with Geronimoo's game a little and the festival/moat engine can be strong in an unusual way. If you try to thin out the alchemist deck using upgrades you still get left with annoying silvers that clog things up. You can however upgrade/remodel them to festivals and then add moats to draw the whole deck. There are all sorts of unusual tricks you can pull off once you can draw your whole deck here too.