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Author Topic: Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Game over - Mafia wins!)  (Read 18632 times)

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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #975 on: October 20, 2024, 10:14:35 am »

Vote Count 3.4

WestCoastDidds (3): jotheonah, Awaclus, mcmcsalot
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
mcmcsalot (3): EFHW, WestCoastDidds, Robz888

Not Voting (1): shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 1 hour and 25 minutes.
And this vote count.  Awaclus has correctly called Didds wagon as being suspiciously stalled out.  We are in quickhammer territory if she were town.  Instead I see Cuzz deflecting to Awaclus, Didds/Robz following to mcmc.  This play just makes no sense whatsoever if Didds/mcmc were scumteam.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #976 on: October 20, 2024, 10:23:22 am »

Reread done.

Vote: Cuzz
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #977 on: October 20, 2024, 11:41:22 am »

Hi shraeye, you are either scum or you are right that cuzz is scum. No quick hammer from me. I will reread tomorrow morning after dropping the kids off at school and likely make my decision then.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #978 on: October 20, 2024, 11:47:26 am »

Also now that you have claimed VT I can say cuzz claiming RS was a bit of a gamble for scum!cuzz.

As didds partner cuzz does not know if robz picked 1 or 2 modifications. So he doesn’t know if RS is a safe fake claim. I have intentionally tried to make sure I didn’t close off the potential that I was a RS so scum wouldn’t know what to do. If I had been a RS and cuzz fake claimed there I think he insta loses the game. I don’t think it’s shocking to believe that today the exhile was going to be you or cuzz. So I guess that is town points to cuzz.

I do have to do some figuring to see if I think robz played a game fitting with the fact that he did or didn’t know that didds and one of you was his partner.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #979 on: October 20, 2024, 11:49:55 am »

Oh hell yeah I was pretty certain but that makes it super easy on me vote: shraeye

You could have at least pretended for a moment like you were remotely concerned about singlehandedly losing the game for town if you guessed wrong.

Mcmc take your time, but I can answer any and all questions you have for me about anything I’ve done or said the entire game. Don’t do anything rash.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #980 on: October 20, 2024, 11:51:03 am »

Also now that you have claimed VT I can say cuzz claiming RS was a bit of a gamble for scum!cuzz.

As didds partner cuzz does not know if robz picked 1 or 2 modifications. So he doesn’t know if RS is a safe fake claim. I have intentionally tried to make sure I didn’t close off the potential that I was a RS so scum wouldn’t know what to do. If I had been a RS and cuzz fake claimed there I think he insta loses the game. I don’t think it’s shocking to believe that today the exhile was going to be you or cuzz. So I guess that is town points to cuzz.

I do have to do some figuring to see if I think robz played a game fitting with the fact that he did or didn’t know that didds and one of you was his partner.

There is a nonzero chance of two restless spirits so slightly fewer town points for me on that specific note.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #981 on: October 20, 2024, 12:02:30 pm »

Also now that you have claimed VT I can say cuzz claiming RS was a bit of a gamble for scum!cuzz.

As didds partner cuzz does not know if robz picked 1 or 2 modifications. So he doesn’t know if RS is a safe fake claim. I have intentionally tried to make sure I didn’t close off the potential that I was a RS so scum wouldn’t know what to do. If I had been a RS and cuzz fake claimed there I think he insta loses the game. I don’t think it’s shocking to believe that today the exhile was going to be you or cuzz. So I guess that is town points to cuzz.

I do have to do some figuring to see if I think robz played a game fitting with the fact that he did or didn’t know that didds and one of you was his partner.

There is a nonzero chance of two restless spirits so slightly fewer town points for me on that specific note.

Really how?
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #982 on: October 20, 2024, 12:06:23 pm »

I think based on this

“ Roles are guaranteed to be different, except that the roles selected by the Mafia modifications may be the same as the roles selected by Traitor modifications.”

I actually always found that description a tad ambiguous but I never bothered to reach out to get full clarification. But I think it means that there could be duplicate town prs.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #983 on: October 20, 2024, 12:52:39 pm »

I think based on this

“ Roles are guaranteed to be different, except that the roles selected by the Mafia modifications may be the same as the roles selected by Traitor modifications.”

I actually always found that description a tad ambiguous but I never bothered to reach out to get full clarification. But I think it means that there could be duplicate town prs.

Ooooooh

Faust can the mafia modification and the traitor modification result in two copies of the same town modification meaning two restless spirits is a potential outcome of the setup?
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #984 on: October 20, 2024, 01:49:13 pm »

Oh hell yeah I was pretty certain but that makes it super easy on me vote: shraeye

You could have at least pretended for a moment like you were remotely concerned about singlehandedly losing the game for town if you guessed wrong.

Mcmc take your time, but I can answer any and all questions you have for me about anything I’ve done or said the entire game. Don’t do anything rash.
I've reread day3. there is no chance mcmc is scum; if he is, then mafia was playing ABSOLUTELY CRAZY from a totally winning position. 
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #985 on: October 20, 2024, 02:01:34 pm »

Also now that you have claimed VT I can say cuzz claiming RS was a bit of a gamble for scum!cuzz.

As didds partner cuzz does not know if robz picked 1 or 2 modifications. So he doesn’t know if RS is a safe fake claim. I have intentionally tried to make sure I didn’t close off the potential that I was a RS so scum wouldn’t know what to do. If I had been a RS and cuzz fake claimed there I think he insta loses the game. I don’t think it’s shocking to believe that today the exhile was going to be you or cuzz. So I guess that is town points to cuzz.

I do have to do some figuring to see if I think robz played a game fitting with the fact that he did or didn’t know that didds and one of you was his partner.

I can refute this line of thought easily; if Cuzz/Didds picked no modifications, then they have seen 2 PRs and know that there cannot be any other PRs.  Any fakeclaim is totally safe.  This also matches my suspicion that Robz knew Didds was his partner when he was defending her.
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faust

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #986 on: October 20, 2024, 02:42:29 pm »

Faust can the mafia modification and the traitor modification result in two copies of the same town modification meaning two restless spirits is a potential outcome of the setup?
Yes.
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faust

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #987 on: October 21, 2024, 06:49:15 am »

Vote Count 6.1

Cuzz (1): shraeye
shraeye (1): Cuzz

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to exile. Day 6 lasts until October 24, 2024, 03:00:00 pm.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2024, 07:51:03 am by faust »
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #988 on: October 21, 2024, 11:27:10 am »

If cuzz is town we know for certain that scum plus traitor took 3 modifications.

If cuzz is scum we know for certain that scum plus traitor took 2 modifications.

We know one mod is exhile-proof traitor. I think the other mods that are likely are know traitor and know mafia.

If cuzz is town didds puts both partners in the exact same spot and likely knows it.

I’m trying to organize my thoughts…


Town
Ithink EFHW is town and I think Cuzz is town. I had LL on my town list, too, but now I’m not so sure but I think it’s mostly on Gus because he has in the speccy of the last game he consistently thought I was scum and I wasn’t and it seems that is happening this game, too. It feels impossible to argue against feels so ugh. And me, towny town town.

No idea
I don’t have any feelings about Robz so no idea. We don’t know each other well and I think he’s the kind of person who is annoyed with the chatter, which is what I do Shraeye is in this game? I’m having a hard time remembering what he’s done except math homework. If we were lurker exiling, he’d be my choice. Awaclus, around and active but doesn’t engage in a way that lets me get a handle on him. He is funny, though, which awesome.

Vote choices
Galz had Mcmc on his list, and now EFHW goes do that’s an option. Swowl is another possibility because when he’s town I usually know it for sure. The same with Joth. I have sympathy for Joth being overextended but it still feels kind of forced to me.

I will be around in the morning. I think that’s when the deadline is

Vote: Joth
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #989 on: October 21, 2024, 11:35:18 am »

vote count from the time of didds vote for joth there:

jotheonah (1): Didds
Swowl (1):  LaLight
LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, Awaclus
mcmc (1): EFHW
cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
robz (1): Cuzz

Not Voting, mcmcsalot
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #990 on: October 21, 2024, 11:37:08 am »

I’m trying to organize my thoughts…




No idea
I don’t have any feelings about Robz so no idea. We don’t know each other well and I think he’s the kind of person who is annoyed with the chatter, which is what I do Shraeye is in this game? I’m having a hard time remembering what he’s done except math homework. If we were lurker exiling, he’d be my choice. Awaclus, around and active but doesn’t engage in a way that lets me get a handle on him. He is funny, though, which awesome.
Of all the things I could be, unmemorable is the most disappointing.

Vote for LaLight with me. You can go check out my unmemorable posts explaining why

shraeye calling out didds positioning and lack of explaination on him seems wierd from a partner.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #991 on: October 21, 2024, 11:49:29 am »

man end of day two cuz is around and active and helping us get an exhile through. Also the quick things like.

EFHW real quick explain the difference between tracker and watcher

Is such a townie not really ever going to catch scum but let me try everything type of post to make. Like scum knows this is a 100% useless question to ask, town knows it is 99% aa useless question to ask and really really wants to ask it anyway
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #992 on: October 21, 2024, 11:57:54 am »

One thing you should keep in mind is how shraeye and I have been playing and discussing things all game.

Look back at each day, I have been at the top of post count, I have been involved in discussions and back and forths with people, I was there at the end of each day trying to get exiles through and on the first two days pushed us away from exiling two town PRs. I have been asking questions and answering questions of others and if you read back the words I’m using and the way I talk, I think (though I can’t be certain from an outside perspective) that it will read like someone who has limited information and is trying to figure out the game and not screw up.

Shraeye on the other hand is almost always posting a string of posts on his own, addressed to himself or to no one in particular, usually at night (US time) when few others are around. This let him give his takes in a vacuum without having to directly have much real back and forth with anyone else in the game, and it allowed him to carefully consider the precise structure of his cases and arguments before posting. Go back and try to find any instance of shraeye saying anything seemingly off the cuff or remotely casual. Even all the way up to his vote on me, where after a reread and a handful of posts he’s apparently 100% certain I’m scum just based on voting behavior, certain enough to gamble the whole game on, and he doesn’t even wait for any reaction from either of us to make his move.

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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #993 on: October 21, 2024, 11:58:15 am »

Joth, you are right that I haven’t built any cases on anyone. But I don’t think I’m alone in that. EFHW’s claim is being wholesale accepted and she hasn’t made a case on anyone, so I don’t think I’m alone in that. Right now, I’m mostly looking at vote counts and who has been instrumental in getting town exiled. That has not been me, it’s been me.

There is no way at all that I can answer “she’s off”. I’m distracted…I’m buying a house, but off? Last game when I was 100 % town EVERYONE except Cuzz, obvi, in the speccy thought I was scum. All of you. Of course I couldn’t see that so I wasn’t engaging with it, but what was going on there? What is it about me that misguided all of you? Heck, I’d have been exiled if faust hadn’t needed the town cred and voted for Jimmm. It was so crystal clear to me that I would never have played scum the way Jimmm was saying I would. (But none of the speccy believed me) but this “case” doesn’t even have a narrative. It’s just that I’m off.  It’s a completely harmless case for scum-you to make because there is no way yo disprove it or catch you in a lie. You read the room (I don’t know what fos means but it must be bad) and open the door to a a quick exile, assuming there are at least a  baddie or two in you, awaclus, Mcmc, and Cuzz.

at least a baddie or two in me awaclus, joth and cuzz

Ugh…so many apologies for all the typos. Jet lag is real. I appreciate reading my posts from the last 24 hours with grace!

Shraeye and Robz showing up and putting in some work. Nicely done. 

Shraeye, I didn’t move my vote from EFHW after she claimed because I wasn’t sure I believed her. But I thought Cuzz’s immediate move from her was more towny than not, even though I wish that he had a bit more suspicion.

Scum: Joth
Lean scum: Mcmc, awaclus
Neutral: Robz, Shraeye
Lean town: EFHW, Cuzz

cuzz magically town
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #994 on: October 21, 2024, 11:59:08 am »

One thing you should keep in mind is how shraeye and I have been playing and discussing things all game.

Look back at each day, I have been at the top of post count, I have been involved in discussions and back and forths with people, I was there at the end of each day trying to get exiles through and on the first two days pushed us away from exiling two town PRs. I have been asking questions and answering questions of others and if you read back the words I’m using and the way I talk, I think (though I can’t be certain from an outside perspective) that it will read like someone who has limited information and is trying to figure out the game and not screw up.

Shraeye on the other hand is almost always posting a string of posts on his own, addressed to himself or to no one in particular, usually at night (US time) when few others are around. This let him give his takes in a vacuum without having to directly have much real back and forth with anyone else in the game, and it allowed him to carefully consider the precise structure of his cases and arguments before posting. Go back and try to find any instance of shraeye saying anything seemingly off the cuff or remotely casual. Even all the way up to his vote on me, where after a reread and a handful of posts he’s apparently 100% certain I’m scum just based on voting behavior, certain enough to gamble the whole game on, and he doesn’t even wait for any reaction from either of us to make his move.

I agree 100% that you in isolation have played a vastly more townie game than shraeye
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #995 on: October 21, 2024, 12:02:01 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Robz888
WestCoastDidds (2): jotheonah, Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 29 hours and 20 minutes.
Honestly, one of these has got to be a scumwagon and the other a townwagon.

I'm feeling very confident that towncore Cuzz/EFHW/shraeye needs to figure this out. I think the right call is to vote: mcmc.  I think that whether its joth/Awaclus or Didds/Robz, mcmc is the third.

unvote
or, joth/didds?

If that's a coordinated 1v1 to set up the winner as "town"...I'm probably picking Awaclus as the third if that's the case. so vote: mcmc is terrible.

Shraeye can you explain what this means?
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #996 on: October 21, 2024, 12:41:36 pm »

I'm going to put myself out of my misery. Vote: cuzz

If you are town sorry to my fellow peeps. Didds seemed to have protected you so much this game. I also think it's slightly unlikely that robz took two modifications as the traitor. I can see him taking exhile proof and then saying sweet I'll play a regular town game with no knowledge but be BP an EP and then got real mad when I guessed he was scum because I thought he did know his partners.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #997 on: October 21, 2024, 01:54:36 pm »

I'm going to put myself out of my misery. Vote: cuzz

If you are town sorry to my fellow peeps. Didds seemed to have protected you so much this game. I also think it's slightly unlikely that robz took two modifications as the traitor. I can see him taking exhile proof and then saying sweet I'll play a regular town game with no knowledge but be BP an EP and then got real mad when I guessed he was scum because I thought he did know his partners.

Maaaaaan
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #998 on: October 21, 2024, 01:56:49 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Robz888
WestCoastDidds (2): jotheonah, Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 29 hours and 20 minutes.
Honestly, one of these has got to be a scumwagon and the other a townwagon.

I'm feeling very confident that towncore Cuzz/EFHW/shraeye needs to figure this out. I think the right call is to vote: mcmc.  I think that whether its joth/Awaclus or Didds/Robz, mcmc is the third.

unvote
or, joth/didds?

If that's a coordinated 1v1 to set up the winner as "town"...I'm probably picking Awaclus as the third if that's the case. so vote: mcmc is terrible.

Shraeye can you explain what this means?

Dude you had 3 days to let shraeye answer this and decide if you liked his answer.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #999 on: October 21, 2024, 01:58:35 pm »

I know I'm sorry cuzz, I am absolutely not built for endgames. I legit was making myself sick to my stomach re-reading and just decided to go with my first instinct
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)
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