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Author Topic: Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Game over - Mafia wins!)  (Read 18774 times)

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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #900 on: October 15, 2024, 02:03:08 pm »

Somethings not adding up; I officially hate games with traitors.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #901 on: October 15, 2024, 02:26:08 pm »

I think based on the setup and what we have it is just extremely unlikely the scum!awaclus takes the modification become neighbor and the immediately nightkills galz thus rendering that neighborhood useless. You have to assume scum planned the fact that they would get towncred for it or assume that galz leaked he was a pr or assume that awaclus leaked he was scum.

But this reasoning disappears entirely if Awaclus is the traitor.

Meh, I wanna say it's even less likely traitor!awaclus takes the become neighbor mod over 1-shot exhile proof and/or know mafia. But you are right that then didds can genuinely not know galz is a neighbor so no issue with here confusion, and mafia could have accidentally shot traitor!awaclus's neighbor Galz in just a comical coincidence.

I am feeling somewhat like after two days of rough town wagons and outing a bunch of town pr's if scum/traitor also took some weird sub optimal modification play awaclus can just have the win. My brain doesn't have the bandwith for keeping that option open and I'm just running with awaclus being town.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #902 on: October 15, 2024, 02:30:34 pm »

Somethings not adding up; I officially hate games with traitors.

I think you underestimate the likelyhood that mafia didnt take the "know the traitor" mod. I think it is extremely unlikely they did not take it and yes without that fact Jomm looks much scummier aand cuzz less so.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #903 on: October 15, 2024, 02:31:04 pm »

What do you feel about robz shraeye? Specifically how he fit in to yesterdays wagons
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #904 on: October 15, 2024, 03:48:45 pm »

If we include Cuzz on Didds, then Didds' partner definitely bussed to some degree.  The traitor also voted for Didds; I think this points to Traitor NOT picking the "know your team" choice

Once again, Cuzz should not be included on the didds wagon. Cuzz could have been watching, hoping no one would hammer his partner, and swooped in to add that cover vote once it was too late.

I don't blame Cuzz for wanting to appear on-wagon, but I find it extremely weird that another player would humor this. This looks vaguely partner-y to me.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #905 on: October 15, 2024, 03:50:48 pm »

Current conclusion:

mcmc town

honestly, that's about it. Boo to the rest of y'all.

Why? This looks like buddying!
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #906 on: October 15, 2024, 03:51:16 pm »

Man, for me this is definitely NOT a case where everyone seems townie, this is a case where everyone seems like a scum. (Not Awaclus.)
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #907 on: October 15, 2024, 03:53:55 pm »

Vote: shraeye
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #908 on: October 15, 2024, 05:15:40 pm »

If we include Cuzz on Didds, then Didds' partner definitely bussed to some degree.  The traitor also voted for Didds; I think this points to Traitor NOT picking the "know your team" choice

Once again, Cuzz should not be included on the didds wagon. Cuzz could have been watching, hoping no one would hammer his partner, and swooped in to add that cover vote once it was too late.

I don't blame Cuzz for wanting to appear on-wagon, but I find it extremely weird that another player would humor this. This looks vaguely partner-y to me.

Why is it “extremely weird” that another player might consider the possibility that I’m town and telling the truth?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #909 on: October 15, 2024, 06:04:19 pm »

If we include Cuzz on Didds, then Didds' partner definitely bussed to some degree.  The traitor also voted for Didds; I think this points to Traitor NOT picking the "know your team" choice

Once again, Cuzz should not be included on the didds wagon. Cuzz could have been watching, hoping no one would hammer his partner, and swooped in to add that cover vote once it was too late.

I don't blame Cuzz for wanting to appear on-wagon, but I find it extremely weird that another player would humor this. This looks vaguely partner-y to me.

Why is it “extremely weird” that another player might consider the possibility that I’m town and telling the truth?

It’s extremely weird that shraeye took the time to lay out a hypothetical that includes you as “on wagon” when you absolutely were not on wagon. Robz accurately points out it’s not wierd for you to establish yourself as a “would a been on wagon” person regardless of your alignment but it is weird that someone else then creates a scenario that jumps off from that conclusion.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #910 on: October 15, 2024, 07:12:05 pm »

Robz didn’t say anything about “regardless of [my] alignment” which is what I’m finding off about him, like he has decided it’s convenient to not even remotely consider that I could be town.
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #911 on: October 15, 2024, 08:20:32 pm »

Robz didn’t say anything about “regardless of [my] alignment” which is what I’m finding off about him, like he has decided it’s convenient to not even remotely consider that I could be town.

I mean that’s just not true, I am certainly considering that you might town.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #912 on: October 15, 2024, 08:23:56 pm »

If we include Cuzz on Didds, then Didds' partner definitely bussed to some degree.  The traitor also voted for Didds; I think this points to Traitor NOT picking the "know your team" choice

Once again, Cuzz should not be included on the didds wagon. Cuzz could have been watching, hoping no one would hammer his partner, and swooped in to add that cover vote once it was too late.

I don't blame Cuzz for wanting to appear on-wagon, but I find it extremely weird that another player would humor this. This looks vaguely partner-y to me.

Why is it “extremely weird” that another player might consider the possibility that I’m town and telling the truth?

It’s extremely weird that shraeye took the time to lay out a hypothetical that includes you as “on wagon” when you absolutely were not on wagon. Robz accurately points out it’s not wierd for you to establish yourself as a “would a been on wagon” person regardless of your alignment but it is weird that someone else then creates a scenario that jumps off from that conclusion.
I'm saying I believe that cuzz would have voted Didds. As stated, I'm not giving either cuzz nor Robz a ton of credit for that exile.  I'm not backing down from my thoughts, it's my honest take whether you like it or not.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #913 on: October 15, 2024, 08:25:49 pm »

Current conclusion:

mcmc town

honestly, that's about it. Boo to the rest of y'all.

Why? This looks like buddying!
Didds pivot to mcmc, mcmcs instrumental position in Didds exile. But sure, it's buddying. Great analysis.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #914 on: October 15, 2024, 08:26:54 pm »

What do you feel about robz shraeye? Specifically how he fit in to yesterdays wagons
Robz looked like he was avoiding a didds exile at all costs until the very very end.  Does not look good.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #915 on: October 15, 2024, 09:07:13 pm »

What do you feel about robz shraeye? Specifically how he fit in to yesterdays wagons
Robz looked like he was avoiding a didds exile at all costs until the very very end.  Does not look good.

I keep coming back to this also—but if he’s scum then why did he not just…not vote for her?
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #916 on: October 15, 2024, 11:14:09 pm »

What do you feel about robz shraeye? Specifically how he fit in to yesterdays wagons
Robz looked like he was avoiding a didds exile at all costs until the very very end.  Does not look good.

I keep coming back to this also—but if he’s scum then why did he not just…not vote for her?
So how do you view Robz vis a vis wagons? How should other view it?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #917 on: October 16, 2024, 05:53:00 am »

My current impression based on those of joth's reads which I've seen, mcmc generally making sense and some random expressed Townreads is that mcmc and Awaclus are more likely Town. Which would mean I'm looking among Robz, shraeye and Cuzz.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #918 on: October 16, 2024, 05:54:00 am »

Somethings not adding up; I officially hate games with traitors.

Do you usually expect that scum interactions make them easy to catch?
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faust

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #919 on: October 16, 2024, 06:20:23 am »

Vote Count 4.3

Robz888 (1): Jimmmmm
shraeye (2): Awaclus, Robz888

Not Voting (3): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, shraeye

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to exile. Day 4 lasts until October 18, 2024, 02:00:00 am. This is in less than 44 hours.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #920 on: October 16, 2024, 01:48:07 pm »

Somethings not adding up; I officially hate games with traitors.

Do you usually expect that scum interactions make them easy to catch?
Yeah, my hot take. Standard scum teams behave in a way I'm more familiar with than traitor+scum groups.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #921 on: October 16, 2024, 02:09:44 pm »

Well it doesn't look like we are getting much more analysis happening and I haven't seen anything that has convinced me that someone is scum more than how much robz defended didds without outright defending them yesterday.

vote: robz
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Awaclus

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #922 on: October 16, 2024, 02:53:26 pm »

We need the entire town on the right wagon, and looks like that isn't happening unless the right wagon is Robz.

Vote: Robz
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #923 on: October 16, 2024, 03:06:47 pm »

I don't think I've ever been more frustrated in a game of mafia. It's like I'm talking to an endless series of brick walls.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #924 on: October 16, 2024, 03:09:16 pm »

I think the chance of scum among Robz and shraeye is decent but I have less confidence that that’s the exact team so I want to read a little more carefully before choosing which to support today. I’m aware deadline is coming up though so I’ll do my best.
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