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Author Topic: Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Game over - Mafia wins!)  (Read 18836 times)

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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #825 on: October 12, 2024, 07:01:44 pm »

The first vote on someone is safe though.

I get that but I just don’t get the confidence
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jotheonah

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #826 on: October 12, 2024, 09:38:45 pm »

The first vote on someone is safe though.

I get that but I just don’t get the confidence

I’m giddy and overconfident from being right yesterday.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #827 on: October 13, 2024, 12:38:49 pm »

Well my reads were wrong, surprise surprise. Or at least partly wrong. We should all probably go back and see how the WCD wagon got built.

The only person still alive who did not join the WCD wagon is Cuzz, so he should automatically be a suspect at this point. Then again it's clear that at least one scum did bus WCD.
Just looking at on/off and auto-suspecring people is not the right way. I definitely agree that what needs to be looked at is HOW the wagon built.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #828 on: October 13, 2024, 12:39:20 pm »

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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #829 on: October 13, 2024, 06:21:13 pm »

I'll check in tomorrow.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #830 on: October 13, 2024, 06:47:14 pm »

Also, just, awesome work. Let's keep at it
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #831 on: October 13, 2024, 07:03:58 pm »

Rereads, cases, share knowledge. School has break for a few days, which means I'm unfortunately busier with kids than normal
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #832 on: October 13, 2024, 11:26:17 pm »

Rereads, cases, share knowledge. School has break for a few days, which means I'm unfortunately busier with kids than normal

Similar boat but should have some time in the morning.
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faust

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #833 on: October 14, 2024, 01:15:08 am »

Jimmmmm replaces jotheonah!

Deadline is extended by 24 hours.


Vote Count 4.1

Robz888 (1): Jimmmmm

Not Voting (5): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, Awaclus, Robz888, shraeye

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to exile. Day 4 lasts until October 18, 2024, 02:00:00 am.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #834 on: October 14, 2024, 01:32:43 am »

Hi all! I'm a game, apparently. And Robz is clearly obvscum.

Anyone want to give me a TL;DR on the important things which have happened?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Night 1)
« Reply #835 on: October 14, 2024, 01:48:06 am »

Quote from: faust
scolapasta has been removed from the shelf! They were Dominion, Spiel des Jahres 2009, a Vanilla Townie!

Galzria has received a bad review! They were Dixit, Spiel des Jahres 2010, a Nightchat Cop Neighbor!

Swowl has been removed from the shelf! They were Azul, Spiel des Jahres 2018, a Vanilla Townie!

LaLight has received a negative review! They were El Grande, Spiel des Jahres 1996, a Town Rolestopper!

WestCoastDidds has been removed from the shelf! They were The Crew: The Quest for Planet Nine, Kennerspiel des Jahres 2020, a Mafia Goon.

EFHW has received a negative review! They were The Settlers of Catan, Spiel des Jahres 1995, a Town Tracker!

2 VTs
Nightchat Cop Neighbor
Rolestopper
Tracker
Goon

6 alive

That confirms at least 2 out of a maximum of 4 modifications have been taken? If Mafia took 2, then one of them had to be knowing the Traitor.

If the Traitor is Exile-proof then we're at exlo, yes?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #836 on: October 14, 2024, 07:48:07 am »

That is correct jimm! Though I have never super understood exlo and what exactly that means compared to mexlo

If we exhile the exhile proof traitor we go from 4/1/1 to “no exhile” into nk opening tommorow at 3/1/1 and then we are at mexlo though then we know the identity of the traitor and can hit them dropping us to 2/1.

So today we are safe to exhile the mafia or a 1-shot exhile proof traitor.

If we no exhile then the exhile proof traitor becomes a big problem so no exhile isn’t an option.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #837 on: October 14, 2024, 07:50:23 am »

Mexlo means we can no-exile.
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Awaclus

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #838 on: October 14, 2024, 08:03:29 am »

Mexlo means we can no-exile.

But if there's an exile-proof traitor, we are not in mexlo and can't no-exile.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #839 on: October 14, 2024, 08:05:21 am »

Which I guess was already clear now that I read the conversation a bit more carefully.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #840 on: October 14, 2024, 08:07:48 am »

Haha yea thanks, got it now.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #841 on: October 14, 2024, 08:58:25 am »

So I wasn't sure how open to be about my reads but with the joth replacement I think I have to be. Jimm I think you and awaclus are town.

I think based on the setup and what we have it is just extremely unlikely the scum!awaclus takes the modification become neighbor and the immediately nightkills galz thus rendering that neighborhood useless. You have to assume scum planned the fact that they would get towncred for it or assume that galz leaked he was a pr or assume that awaclus leaked he was scum.

Also we have this quote from didds
I’m not following, Mcmc. Why should we assume Galz was a neighbor?
Which again is to say if scum planned this big gambit didds has to fake that they didn't know galz was a neighbor which they would know from their partner.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #842 on: October 14, 2024, 09:21:18 am »

Jomm has had fos thrown around at him mostly by didds and robz but some others as well but there was never a legit case or strong push for jomm until yesterday. Based on our misexhiles days 1 and 2 and the fact that the alternate wagon on those days was also town, that suggests to me scum was throwing out Jomm's name, town wasn't picking up on it but was busy making cases on other townies so scum didn't feel the need to stick their nexk out to try and force the jomm case, once day three comes around and one misexile wins it they get much more aggressive.

Then the way day 3 goes down really suggests town!Jomm to me. Robz votes shraeye based on wagon analysis, didds vote Jomm

Alright, I'm going to try to do some wagon analysis.

Day 1

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Day 2

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds
Swowl (6): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, Cuzz, jotheonah, EFHW
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Jo, Cuzz, mcmc, and EFHW were on both mis-exiles.

Shraeye was on neither of them.

Awaclus, WCD, and myself were on one but not the other.

On both days, both major wagons (at least at the end) were on what are now confirmed townies. This means that scum were sitting pretty and didn't necessarily have to scramble. On the other hand, moving from LL to swowl was a necessity given the claim, so scum who were around then would probably have made the switch just to not appear suspicious.
Thanks, y’all for the patient explanation. I appreciate it.

And thanks, Robz for the exile wagons.

I was teaching when the claim and shift happened, but there was no way Swowl seemed to me at all  like scum so I wouldn’t have moved there.

But I’m still intrigued about why every Joth wagon seems to evaporate. If all the baddies chose the option to know each other, they wouldn’t go there, which is two more votes he’s not going to get. And the people who have voted for him have flipped green (Swowl, LaLight).

Vote: Joth

Vote Count 3.1

shraeye (1): Robz888
jotheonah (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (6): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, jotheonah, shraeye, Awaclus

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm.
Robz and didds are split,

Then I announce intent to make a didds case and Jomm comes in and votes for didds, awaclus follows. This promts robz to pivot into making his case for joth.
Vote Count 3.2

jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Robz888
WestCoastDidds (2): jotheonah, Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 29 hours and 20 minutes.

Next up shraeye votes me and unvotes, cuzz votes awaclus, both Jomm and awaclus claim and then EFHW votes for me. This prompts didds to throw away their joth ideas in favor of joining efhw in voting me as they know and we all know, efhw is town. Shraeye could possibly be convinced to vote me as they had briefly, didds best chance of not getting exhiled is now going for me.

Vote Count 3.3

jotheonah (1): Robz888
WestCoastDidds (3): jotheonah, Awaclus, mcmcsalot
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
mcmcsalot (2): EFHW, WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (1): shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 7 hours and 30 minutes.

Now we have robz also throwing away his jomm case to vote for me because I won't vote for Jomm...
Vote: mcmcsalot

I'm shocked he doesn't find my joth case more compelling, and I think that's probably because they are both scum. Joth and mcmc are playing VERY differently from their established town metas. They're saying that's because they're busy or lazy or over committed. I don't believe.

I'll move to mcmc since the votes are there.

Vote Count 3.4

WestCoastDidds (3): jotheonah, Awaclus, mcmcsalot
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
mcmcsalot (3): EFHW, WestCoastDidds, Robz888

Not Voting (1): shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 1 hour and 25 minutes.

Shraeye turns out to be the big difference maker
I hate this tossup,

vote: didds

This seals didd's fate as only a complete refusal to vote them and force a no exhile would really prevent their exhile at this point.  Something like this:
I really think it's shraeye, mcmc, and joth. I will not vote for didds.
Hate this

Vote: Didds

Like I said all that strongly suggests scum was going for Jomm prior to efhw voting me whom they then pivot to.

Obviously alot of this analysis is predicated on me knowing I am town but this points biggie biggie biggie to robz being scum.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #843 on: October 14, 2024, 09:24:45 am »

Some other interesting things I found in my reread.

Here is didds opening post.

Hi hi hi hi hi hi!

I totally forgot we had a game starting! So I missed the helloing! Hello!

Galzy, I missed you!

Mcmc, exchange students are cool. When I was in grad school I had a Swedish undergrad that came and was shared my apartment for a semester. It was super interesting.

LaLight! Where are you now? Still Israel? I get super worried about you, then not. Then worried again! I need you to move to somewhere that is never in the news.

I wish that fausty was available for chatting…I am super curious about the how the gamecon has gone. It’s a bucket list item for me, but it’s always during my semester so I need to do it in a sabbatical year which is a rare thing.

Joth and Swowl, I hope pregnancies are going well and C and DisSwan are being treated like the royalty they are.

Robz, I hope that big life changes haven’t been rough. It’s awesome to have you around!

EFHW and Scola! Hi! What’s shaking?? It’s so good to see you both.

Awaclus, how is your music? Are you still taking classes? I’ll be in Copenhagen for a conference in a couple of weeks, but I seem to have the idea that you are somewhere further north than that. Norway?

Who haven’t we seen yet? Cuzz! Heya! Shraeye! Where y’all at? Shraeye is also at the start of a semester, so prolly flattened. But maybe September just flattens everyone. But whenever he shows up, say hi to RaeRae for us!

I’m super impressed with us that we can go dark for two years and then manage to find our back to each other. I keep thinking that the show Traitor will ignite the game in the world beyond us, but even if it did, I’m not sure they’d find us. Alas and alack!

Not sure how others feel but does the language "who haven't we seen yet? Cuzz! Heya! Shraeye! Where y'all at?" sound a bit like Didds is trying to signal to Cuzz that they know Cuzz is the traitor and "haven't seen him yet". This could apply to shraeye as well but putting cuzz first with the separation of the "Heya!" suggests cuzz.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #844 on: October 14, 2024, 11:16:56 am »

Jimm other stuff for you to look/think about. Our end of day day one and two both have two wagons on town members.

Day one I pushed an EFHW wagon along with some other townies. EFHW voted for cuzz and then unvoted because they didn't realize they were the third vote not the second vote.
Ugh, I had to scroll through three or four times to find Robz's vote. I thought there was just Awaclus. Jumping on third is different from jumping on second. unvote

 the alternative wagons were ones on Cuzz and Galz.

Vote Count 1.3

LaLight (1): shraeye
Cuzz (3): Robz888, Awaclus, jotheonah
EFHW (5): LaLight, WestCoastDidds, mcmcsalot, Galzria, Cuzz
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (1): EFHW

Not Voting (1): scolapasta

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to exile. Day 1 ends on September 25, 2024, 10:45:00 am. That is in 31 hours and 20 minutes.

scolapasta has been prodded.

Shraeye consolidates on Galz
Next up cuzz points out scola exsists and requests a prod whilst suggesting a lurker exhile. Scola arrives to vote galz. This makes galz and cuzz both at 3 votes and efhw leading with 5.

Robz then leaves the cuzz wagon in favor of the scola lurker exhile effectively ending any chance cuzz would get exhiled and leaving us with the efhw and galz wagons. Important to note EFHW has not claimed yet so there is no reason scum would assume the efhw exhile isn't going to go through so despite robz's move here fitting with a scum!robz protects traitor!cuzz it isn't damning. Also good to note shrraeye's consilidation onto galz instead of cuzz in the first place also fits this scum protecting traitor narrative.

Vote Count 1.4

Cuzz (2): Awaclus, jotheonah
EFHW (5): LaLight, WestCoastDidds, mcmcsalot, Galzria, Cuzz
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (3): EFHW, shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to exile. Day 1 ends on September 25, 2024, 10:45:00 am. That is in less than 7 hours.

EFHW claims and then we pretty much all move to scola

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to exile.

Robz has made the argument awaclus or shraeye could be scum based on the fact that if town, it means all 3 scum exhiled scola but as he himself pointed out the wagon was made up pretty much of everyone who was around. I think the more typical "end of day" position to look at is the EFHW 5, Galz and Cuzz 3 position where didds, myself and cuzz are on the efhw wagon and robz, Jomm, shraeye, and awaclus are off

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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #845 on: October 14, 2024, 11:25:31 am »

Another interaction where didds this time insinuates the neighbor could be scum. Something I don't think didd's says if their partner awaclus did in fact choose to become a neighbor.

Why is it given that one of scum is a neighbor. Like I said it is unlike galz to tell his neighbor he has a pr on day 1

I don’t think Galz would have told anyone anything, but if the neighbor was a baddie, there is all manner of interaction that could have happened to make him worth whacking (or suspicion, scumslip, etc). It’s not a given that the neighbor is a baddie, but that is one of the only scum mods that was worth taking and either kind of baddie could choose it.

Ppe:5 LaLi, gonna keep thinking about Joth. I don’t think you’re out in left field. The Awaclus vote for Swowl is also interesting.

I hope all the US folks are doing okay with all things hurricane. The flooding looks awful
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #846 on: October 14, 2024, 12:16:19 pm »

Day two we again have a double town wagon of Swowl and Lalight

K so fun story - I land the other day, flip the phone on and at first I saw the day had ended and I was super pissed it ended soooo early... then I realized I just suck at math and I was never going to land in time.

I am pretty blown away that we ended up on a player that had literally done nothing.

I need to do a proper read through, but what is super weird about it is that we now know that Galz was Town and he seemed like he would of been a super viable alternative for skum to turn to. Yet it went to Pasta.

I am gonna dig into this a little but if anyone has any thoughts...

This is sorta the post that pings losts of people as scummy. It feels as if swowl is taking the scola exhile and his not being around at deadline as an opportunity to take town cred and scummily fos everyone on wagon. Obviously we now know that not what he was doing and all it served to do was upset a bunch of townies who scrambled to get an exhile through and we collectively turn on him for it.

Swowl votes for lalight, lalight muses about potentially omgus voting swowl and the nmakes a Jomm case

So, my case on joth is as follows: here are all the posts from the beginning of Day 2

It does tell us a bit about scum powers at least. Right?

Nope it does not— just re-read the setup. Town gets one modification for free. So we don’t know anything new.

Unless of course EFHW is telling the truth.

These three posts for some reason do not strike me as genuine reaction

EFHW, do you have results to share?

EFHW being alive is sus. Why wouldn’t scum shoot the claimed PR with an investigative ability?

And I don't like that half of the posts are about EFHW and throwing shade that way. It seems to me like in the scum chat the dialogue was as follows:

"Galzria is my neighbour and I think he has a PR"
"But we also have EFHW who is a claimed Tracker"
"I know, I know, let's kill Galz and try to get EFHW exiled the next day, two birds one stone!"

This is coming from Lalight who we know know is the rolestopper and protected efhw that night so he is more sensitive to the idea that scum thought about rolestopper potential and chose to go in another direction.

. It seems to me like in the scum chat the dialogue was as follows:

"Galzria is my neighbour and I think he has a PR"
"But we also have EFHW who is a claimed Tracker"
"I know, I know, let's kill Galz and try to get EFHW exiled the next day, two birds one stone!"

This strikes me as laughably contrived. Like it would be easier to get a claimed town PR exiled than a random townie who people were already pushing for? And don’t forget that if EFHW were town, he could have results today that would finger scum!

Vote: LaLight
Jom with some bigtime OMGUS here

Vote Count 2.1

jotheonah (1): LaLight
Swowl (1): Awaclus
LaLight (2): Swowl, shraeye
EFHW (1): jotheonah

Not Voting (5): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Robz888, WestCoastDidds

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am.

Followed by awaclus moving his vote to Lalight making a wagon for the first time of the day.
Lalight votes swowl
Robz gets prodded by lalight
EHFW votes me
A whole lot on nothing going on and then Jomm votes for Cuzz

Let's try vote: Cuzz

We had a Cuzz wagon day 1 and it wasn't a terrible idea. It kind of got derailed mainly because EFHW voted for it in a scummy way and then the wagon turned to her. But EFHW IS town, we should really look at Cuzz again.

In addition to starting the speculation about mods, Cuzz feels a little off to me from his town meta, and he seemed awfully defensive day 1 on a quite small wagon.
Big to note robz joins in
Oh, the Cuzz stuff. Sure. Vote: Cuzz
Two votes for cuzz here is certaintly not much but its not nothing, goes against either Jomm or Robz "protecting" Cuzz.

Vote Count 2.2

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, Awaclus
Swowl (1): LaLight
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
Robz888 (1): Cuzz
jotheonah (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in 33 hours and 20 minutes.

Awaclus bounces from swowl to lalight to swowl but it is at times when he is generating wagons and moving in a way that looks super pro-town to me.
More time passes, we get closer to the deadline and robz makes his wagon analysis pointing at the off wagon D1 voters, awaclus, shraeye, Swowl
Shraeye disagree's with robz analysis due to the fact that end of day is a last minute lurker pivot.

Didds comes in with this
Didds count 2.1

LaLight (2): Swowl, shraeye,
Swowl (2): LaLight, Awaclus
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Cuzz

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

Ya'll the deadline is 29 hours away. Can we at least start to consolidate tonight so its not a scramble in the morning when some of us are working?

I am not at all excited about Swowl based on who is voting for him. Mcmc, can you settle somewhere? EFHW, how are you feeling abut the mcmc vote? I'm not really willing to move to Cuzz or swowl today.

Didds concern over a scramble suggests to me we have some level of voted for scum going on. Lalight is town, swowl is town, didds is currently voting for Jomm, I know I am town, and that leaves cuzz potential wagon that didds would be looking to avoid.
I vote Swowl and then Didds votes Lalight. This interaction is my inital scum senses tingling of Didds. They had previously expressed the opposite thoughts finding swowl scummy and lalgiht towny. It is strange why didds just doesn't vote swowl there. If anything it suggests they are jumping on a wagon that doesn't have scum partners on it? If shraeye is Didd's partner they would rather split their voted onto the competing town wagons of Lalight and swowl.

Cuzz and Joth then join the swowl wagon very un-ceremoniously
@Cuzz

I don't want to vote for Awaclus just for a fact that EFHW tracked him last night, I don't think exiling him is a great idea. Join me on Swowl?

Yeah ok. Vote: Swowl
I guess I'd better get on either LaLight or Swowl.

vote: Swowl


Vote Count 2.4

LaLight (4): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds, EFHW
Swowl (5): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, Cuzz, jotheonah
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in under 2 hours.

sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?

I can. My main suspicion of LaLight is that his very first post of the day about the Galz kill seemed a little forced/faked, so I was thinking of him as scummy early on and then it kinda faded. I don’t feel amazing about it but we gotta do something.

Jomm votes Lalight who then claims rolestopper at L-1 and then jumps back to swowl, EFHW comes in and saves the exhile by voting Swowl.

Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds
Swowl (6): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, Cuzz, jotheonah, EFHW
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it took 6 to exile.

It feels easy to say one of Cuzz, Jomm, or myself has to be scum there but based on the fact that lalight is also town it was actually pro-town of jomm and cuzz to be trying to work out at least getting one of those exhiles through.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #847 on: October 14, 2024, 01:55:02 pm »

Actually, I'm gonna call the whole team: mcmc, joth, shraeye

I came to play this game!

Robz why did you think it was helpful to try to call the whole team? Why did you have such confidence in your reads?

"Helpful" is not really the way I'd put it, it's just what I thought at the time. I made a good case against joth and I thought it was scummy for mcmc to reject it while making a case against didds that rested on some of the same assumptions. Shraeye also voted counter to my case. So that looked like the team to me.

Clearly I was at least partly wrong, as was EFHW, who largely agreed with me!

I'm not sure what I think now.
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #848 on: October 14, 2024, 02:00:09 pm »

I feel like it’s very likely Robz. Actually Robz-Cuzz is a pretty strong possibility based on how the end of day went, if I’m remembering things correctly. (inb4 Robz accuses me of flip-flopping on Cuzz again).

This is not a strong possibility, in fact it's virtually impossible. If it's me and Cuzz, we could have both declined to vote for didds and there would have been no exile, putting the scum team of didds-Robz-Cuzz in a likely winning position.

A winning position? Who exactly would we be exiling today in that scenario of not one of the three of you?

It doesn't really matter because joth has been replaced, but he's wrong here... If there's a lynchproof traitor, No Exile yesterday was likely to be a scum victory unless they killed wrong and the target got rolestopped, yes?
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #849 on: October 14, 2024, 02:06:26 pm »

The most relevant info should come from, finally, an exile of an actual mafia team member.

Day 3 Final Vote Count

WestCoastDidds (5): jotheonah, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, shraeye, Robz888
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
mcmcsalot (2): EFHW, WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (0)

With 8 alive, it took 5 to exile.

I accept that Awaclus is probably town.

Note that if mcmc is scum, the scum were in a rough spot because he was the alternative wagon. He might as well bus didds, and bus hard.

Shraeye's vote on didds is pretty consequential in establishing that as the most likely exile. It could be bussing though because it buys a lot of credibility.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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