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Author Topic: Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Game over - Mafia wins!)  (Read 18821 times)

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faust

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #700 on: October 08, 2024, 08:49:24 am »

Vote Count 3.2

jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Robz888
WestCoastDidds (2): jotheonah, Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 29 hours and 20 minutes.
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jotheonah

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #701 on: October 08, 2024, 09:47:08 am »

Alright, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and claim early, despite only having two votes on me, as we're 28-ish hours from deadline:

I'm a vanilla townie

So, you know, not the worst exile, unless this in fact is exlo, in which case I am the worst exile. I'm sorry I haven't played this game better.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #702 on: October 08, 2024, 11:41:26 am »

Alright, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and claim early, despite only having two votes on me, as we're 28-ish hours from deadline:

I'm a vanilla townie

So, you know, not the worst exile, unless this in fact is exlo, in which case I am the worst exile. I'm sorry I haven't played this game better.

What made you feel like you need to apologize for not playing better?
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jotheonah

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #703 on: October 08, 2024, 01:51:27 pm »

Alright, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and claim early, despite only having two votes on me, as we're 28-ish hours from deadline:

I'm a vanilla townie

So, you know, not the worst exile, unless this in fact is exlo, in which case I am the worst exile. I'm sorry I haven't played this game better.

What made you feel like you need to apologize for not playing better?

I've been less active than usual and I haven't really made any really good cases. And I'm not doing my usual job of being obvtown. I'm just not super happy with my play. Not trying to throw a pity party or anything.
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EFHW

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #704 on: October 08, 2024, 02:08:01 pm »

@Didds, I'm still confused about why you voted me after my Cuzz vote but didn't react to Robz or Awaclus voting him for the same reason.
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #705 on: October 08, 2024, 02:32:37 pm »

Will more people engage with my case against Joth? I think it's a good case... if you disagree, explain why.
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #706 on: October 08, 2024, 02:33:14 pm »

We're getting an unusual lack of mcmc this game, or at least today. Not sure what to make of it.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #707 on: October 08, 2024, 03:08:53 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Robz888
WestCoastDidds (2): jotheonah, Awaclus

Not Voting (4): Cuzz, mcmcsalot, EFHW, shraeye

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to exile. Day 3 lasts until October 09, 2024, 02:10:00 pm. This is in about 29 hours and 20 minutes.
Honestly, one of these has got to be a scumwagon and the other a townwagon.

I'm feeling very confident that towncore Cuzz/EFHW/shraeye needs to figure this out. I think the right call is to vote: mcmc.  I think that whether its joth/Awaclus or Didds/Robz, mcmc is the third.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #708 on: October 08, 2024, 03:09:26 pm »

unvote
or, joth/didds?
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #709 on: October 08, 2024, 03:10:50 pm »

If that's a coordinated 1v1 to set up the winner as "town"...I'm probably picking Awaclus as the third if that's the case. so vote: mcmc is terrible.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #710 on: October 08, 2024, 03:13:03 pm »

Awaclus got really spiky with my voting analysis where I figured that all three of them ended up looking scummy to varying degrees.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #711 on: October 08, 2024, 03:29:48 pm »

Vote Count 2.3

LaLight (4): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds, EFHW
Swowl (3): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
Awaclus (1): Cuzz

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in under 6 hours.
I'm starting the Day2 countdown here.  The fact that two townies had started the wagons on eachother is great news for scum, who are probably not seeking to be extra loud and more likely to just follow suit and get another mis-ex.

Cuzz is swayed to Swowl by LaLight.
Then joth joins in:
I guess I'd better get on either LaLight or Swowl.

vote: Swowl

EFHW not excited for a non-case exile of Swowl

Cuzz's sticking point with Swowl creates confusion for Awaclus, mcmc, and myself.

WCD says "why Swowl, i guess it's inevitable". but expresses her townread on Swowl
Quote fail. Oh well.

I’m dumbfounded that Swowl has generated this many votes. I’m just not reading him as scummy and fail to see what y’all see as out of character for him. He is easily the player that I read best and think the most like and that often makes me give him the benefit of the doubt, but also, I usually can feel before everyone else when he’s off. I think that’s a bad exile. At the point it looks inevitable, unless all the baddies are already on him. If I’m wrong, beers are on me. But I just don’t think he’s a baddie.

Joth states townread on LaLight

Then joth is reluctantly willing to move to LaLight to ensure exile:
sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?

LaLight claims, talk about what rolestopper is, joth moves back to swowl.

EFHW hammers. So it looks like this in the end
Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds
Swowl (6): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, Cuzz, jotheonah, EFHW
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it took 6 to exile.

Assuming EFHW is a tracker, would EFHW have gotten a different result if her target had no targets vs if she got rolestopped?
No.

Mod: Would I have been told if I had been rolestopped?
No.



Well, not too much there; maybe i'm in everything-confirms-my-bias territory.  Joth is scummy there, robz is somewhat guilty by reason of not-showing-up which sounds unfair but is what it is.  Still down with EFHW/Cuzz, this reads as townier from Didds, mostly neutral on mcmc and Awaclus.
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #712 on: October 08, 2024, 03:47:12 pm »

Hey shraeye:

Will more people engage with my case against Joth? I think it's a good case... if you disagree, explain why.

!
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #713 on: October 08, 2024, 04:13:42 pm »

Hey shraeye:

Will more people engage with my case against Joth? I think it's a good case... if you disagree, explain why.

!
I see it; I don't get too keyed up by "found Cuzz towny day3 but voted for him day2."

I also agree with your stance on joth's "claims-meta" post, but find big theoretical statements like that usually alignment-neutral.

So, I wasn't initially or on reread nodding along with any of your case.  I also think joth is scummy, from analyzing endOfDays.

Overall I'm in this conflicted headspace, where joth could be scum as my feelings tell me; you are right but your case is weak. Or he isn't scum and you are, so you're goading me to make that vote.  There are, of course, two other possibilities, and I'm ruminating heavily on them also. 

I'm glad we still have some time to sort it out but, ironically, upset that I wasn't mis-exiled early on to save me from the headache of misEx=Lose situations.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #714 on: October 08, 2024, 04:36:10 pm »

@Didds, I'm still confused about why you voted me after my Cuzz vote but didn't react to Robz or Awaclus voting him for the same reason.

It was this:

EFHW, can you help me understand? How could town reveal too much? It’s not like we got any choices
I'm just speaking from experience.

Which I found evasive. Since the time that robz voted and awa followed him there had been more discussion about why cuzz was not scummy for introducing the topic, and then your vote came several hours after that, as a naked vote with no reason or accounting for the previous conversation except the quote I posted above. It felt more like a “why not follow a wagon” than a good reason.
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classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #715 on: October 08, 2024, 05:37:29 pm »

Ugh…so many apologies for all the typos. Jet lag is real. I appreciate reading my posts from the last 24 hours with grace!

Shraeye and Robz showing up and putting in some work. Nicely done. 

Shraeye, I didn’t move my vote from EFHW after she claimed because I wasn’t sure I believed her. But I thought Cuzz’s immediate move from her was more towny than not, even though I wish that he had a bit more suspicion.

Scum: Joth
Lean scum: Mcmc, awaclus
Neutral: Robz, Shraeye
Lean town: EFHW, Cuzz

Why scumreading mcmc?

Instrumental in Scola and Swowl exiles, general demeanor and contribution

Explain how I was instrumental in either of those exhiles. I believe I led the wagon for efhw day one and actually still wanted to exhile efhw but accepted scola a repeat lurker as a good last minute alternative. The swowl exhile I supported in opposition to the lalight wagon who was also town. It feels like you are taking the necessary stance of scum reading me and then just throwing things out that definitely didn’t happen.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #716 on: October 08, 2024, 05:40:02 pm »

We're getting an unusual lack of mcmc this game, or at least today. Not sure what to make of it.

Just the classic I got behind and each time I sit down and have the time to get back into it I am deciding to do other stuff which is absolutely anti-town of me and thus unlike both town and scum mcmc. I will 100% catch up and get back in after I put the girls to bed tonight. If I don’t blame me for our loss, shame works make me play better.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #717 on: October 08, 2024, 05:42:43 pm »

Will more people engage with my case against Joth? I think it's a good case... if you disagree, explain why.

This is something I will get to as well as your wagon analysis. Off the cuff I’m not seeing the Joth case as stronger than my vibe on didds though I 100% need to give your case it’s due before I say I disagree.

I also weirdly townread former coalition members because that was low key a bond that has surpassed the boundary of that game.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #718 on: October 08, 2024, 05:45:27 pm »

Alright, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and claim early, despite only having two votes on me, as we're 28-ish hours from deadline:

I'm a vanilla townie

So, you know, not the worst exile, unless this in fact is exlo, in which case I am the worst exile. I'm sorry I haven't played this game better.

Hmm this certainly draws more attention than not doing this. I think this is objectively a bad scum play which makes me think it’s towny. Though if scum!joth sussed out he was going to be the exhile this was a great move. Hmmm

Gotta re-read joth and see if scum!joth would expect to have some allies and get a didds exhile or something through
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #719 on: October 08, 2024, 07:03:15 pm »

I have no solid townreads this game and it’s driving me nuts.

I think I’d go Didds over joth. Joth seemed kinda townish in the way he was around trying to do the right thing at deadline yesterday. Not sure what to think of his claim though. And his apology about his play seemed unnecessary to me (he’s at basically the same activity level as everyone else in this game) so I feel like it could be fake but I dunno.

But my gut is really telling me to vote: Awaclus. Anyone down?
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #720 on: October 08, 2024, 07:24:21 pm »

Awaclus got really spiky with my voting analysis where I figured that all three of them ended up looking scummy to varying degrees.

I got really spiky with you analyzing me as a part of a wagon that I wasn't on, had never been on, didn't start, didn't build, didn't like, and didn't in any way contribute towards being the top wagon all the while I was on what was the most viable alternative wagon besides Galz. As usual, I am only defending myself, and I don't think I have been too unambiguous about that.
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Awaclus

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #721 on: October 08, 2024, 08:31:04 pm »

I am about to go to bed so I'll claim before I get put within quickhammering range without a chance to defend myself.

I'm Galzria's neighbor. There were only two of us. He told me in the neighborhood that he accidentally missed the deadline on D1 and that's why he wasn't around. There's other stuff in there about his reads that I might want to share later but not right now, and nothing else even remotely interesting.

You should believe my role claim because I breadcrumbed it by casting an explicitly pointless vote on him as my first action in the game; I avoided his wagon that normally I would have hopped on D1; and I have been using the knowledge that there are two town neighbors to inform my analysis of the situation today, which should come across if you read it knowing it being the case.

You should believe I'm town because scum would have to give town a substantial benefit to gain a neighbor role which doesn't otherwise help them (besides letting them use this same argument in their defense), which is not impossible, but does seem unlikely by default; and because I think all of my actions this game make sense as Galz's town neighbor. I can also explain my Swowl and LaLight votes if someone feels they'd be able to better figure out my alignment from that (but I won't if there's no need), and I'd prefer not to explain my Cuzz vote yet because Cuzz is still alive but I would explain it to avoid getting misexiled.

Interesting. I don’t feel like galz is the type of player to inform his neighbor that he is a cop I don’t think we necessarily assume scum took the become neoghbor thing.

I also think scum is less likely to kill their neighbor so actually a lean slightly towards the other neighbor being town.
Maybe the other neighbor scumslipped.

I'd like to believe that scum!me can be trusted with not scumslipping in a neighborhood. You'll have to take my word for it but I posted 4 messages in there, they were all one-liners, one of them was just a greeting and the rest were stating the obvious about how it wasn't a big deal that Galz wasn't there for the deadline.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #722 on: October 08, 2024, 08:42:08 pm »

sweet I absolutely believe awaclus is glaz's town neighbor as said I think it makes zero sense for scum to grab neighbor stuff and then kill galz. I also super doubt scum!awaclus scum slipped in the neighborhood and had to nk galz for it.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #723 on: October 08, 2024, 09:31:27 pm »

Brothers Robzalot might be my new favorite duo name. I’m eh on Galz votes. I think he was on the right side of the is Cuzz scummy for bringing up potential mod choices. And the end result was that it really did start some conversation better than our usual D1 chatter.

Joth, I’m sorry you’re sick!

If this is Scola scumlurking I’m gonna lose it. Moving my vote there would take very little convincing.

Deadline is tomorrow at 10:45. I’m around most of today, but not this evening (trivia) and tomorrow I’m teaching. I’ll be able to check in early (8ish FT) but I’m for sure teaching at deadline. I like the 5-day days!

Off to class!

Vote: Scola

youa are the 5th vote for scola, I hammered him with 50 min till deadline and zero other wagon available. Pretty scummy of you to say you have a scumread on me for being instrumental in the scola misexhile.



Day 2
I’m trying to organize my thoughts…


Town
Ithink EFHW is town and I think Cuzz is town. I had LL on my town list, too, but now I’m not so sure but I think it’s mostly on Gus because he has in the speccy of the last game he consistently thought I was scum and I wasn’t and it seems that is happening this game, too. It feels impossible to argue against feels so ugh. And me, towny town town.

No idea
I don’t have any feelings about Robz so no idea. We don’t know each other well and I think he’s the kind of person who is annoyed with the chatter, which is what I do Shraeye is in this game? I’m having a hard time remembering what he’s done except math homework. If we were lurker exiling, he’d be my choice. Awaclus, around and active but doesn’t engage in a way that lets me get a handle on him. He is funny, though, which awesome.

Vote choices
Galz had Mcmc on his list, and now EFHW goes do that’s an option. Swowl is another possibility because when he’s town I usually know it for sure. The same with Joth. I have sympathy for Joth being overextended but it still feels kind of forced to me.

I will be around in the morning. I think that’s when the deadline is

Vote: Joth

interesting that you have swowl in your scum list because you know when he's town. then
Didds count 2.1

LaLight (2): Swowl, shraeye,
Swowl (2): LaLight, Awaclus
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Cuzz

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

Ya'll the deadline is 29 hours away. Can we at least start to consolidate tonight so its not a scramble in the morning when some of us are working?

I am not at all excited about Swowl based on who is voting for him. Mcmc, can you settle somewhere? EFHW, how are you feeling abut the mcmc vote? I'm not really willing to move to Cuzz or swowl today.
not long after(granted swowl comes in a posts some things which you mention finding towny)
The fizzle of the Joth wagon is suuuuuuper interesting. But I have to watch the debate and do some commentary thing after so I’m out for a while.

Between the three leading wagons, Cuzz, LL and Swowl, I’ll vote: LaLight
you have completely swapped your town and scum reads on lalight and swowl based mostly on what other people are pushing for their exhiles. Overall this feels much more like you are aligning your votes based on which players you want to vote with/against not based on which players you actually find scummy. Also as a general point and I will say I do not know where this falls meta wise for didds but almost every other post is asking other people what their read on X player is. Again just feels like you are more concerned with what the state of everyone is at rather than getting scum out of here.

That has not been me, it’s been me.

What?

Fail! That’s has not been me, it’s been you (Joth). He has been instrumental in exiling both townies
More blaming others for being instrumental in the town exhiles.

vote: didds fits scum narrative of navigating the game rather than searching for scum. more rereads incoming
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EFHW

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #724 on: October 08, 2024, 09:37:19 pm »

@Didds, I'm still confused about why you voted me after my Cuzz vote but didn't react to Robz or Awaclus voting him for the same reason.

It was this:

EFHW, can you help me understand? How could town reveal too much? It’s not like we got any choices
I'm just speaking from experience.

Which I found evasive. Since the time that robz voted and awa followed him there had been more discussion about why cuzz was not scummy for introducing the topic, and then your vote came several hours after that, as a naked vote with no reason or accounting for the previous conversation except the quote I posted above. It felt more like a “why not follow a wagon” than a good reason.
Ok, I can see it could have looked like that. Thanks.
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