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Author Topic: Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Game over - Mafia wins!)  (Read 18569 times)

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #650 on: October 05, 2024, 06:55:58 pm »

Wheels up. VLA until Monday
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #651 on: October 05, 2024, 07:12:08 pm »

Because I didn't remember that the traitor could be 1-shot exileproof.

Unvote
I see the argument for  noexile...I don't understand how exile proof makes that a nonidea...isn't it still "can't afford to misexile territory?"

Ugh, I'm mapping things in my head now. So noexile spends, like, a half-day. Which we have because of the even parity. But exileproof means mafia have an extra half-day on us? Or is it a full day?  We can't simply be in a losing position now, or faust would end it. So does that mean they couldn't have picked exileproof?
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #652 on: October 05, 2024, 07:19:31 pm »

And the same principle applies later if we exile mafia today. Basically we can't afford to misexile, and we can only afford to fail to exile once (either a no-exile or a failed exile attempt of the exile-proof traitor, but not both).
Right, so that's like a half-day. Got it
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #653 on: October 05, 2024, 07:57:16 pm »

So on Day 1, either ALL the scum are on the wagon, or either shraeye or Awaclus is scum.

Ditto for Day 2, except it's shraeye or WCD (or me, in fairness).

Process of elimination seems to point to shraeye, although it seems a little weird to punish him for NOT exiling townies.
It's shortsighted to base the whole analysis on "all the scum wouldn't vote together", especially because the basic vote counts analysis doesn't take into account the PR claim + last minute switching that happened both days.

On both those days no exile was always an option. Last minute push for no-thought misexile sounds like a more effective place to look for scum.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #654 on: October 05, 2024, 08:00:14 pm »

Thanks, y’all for the patient explanation. I appreciate it.

And thanks, Robz for the exile wagons.

I was teaching when the claim and shift happened, but there was no way Swowl seemed to me at all  like scum so I wouldn’t have moved there.

But I’m still intrigued about why every Joth wagon seems to evaporate. If all the baddies chose the option to know each other, they wouldn’t go there, which is two more votes he’s not going to get. And the people who have voted for him have flipped green (Swowl, LaLight).

Vote: Joth
Was there more than one joth wagon?
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #655 on: October 06, 2024, 06:34:22 am »

Let’s maybe rethink the early votes here since a quickhammer is also not out of the question.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #656 on: October 06, 2024, 06:36:17 am »

Let’s maybe rethink the early votes here since a quickhammer is also not out of the question.

Nevermind I’m being dense.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #657 on: October 06, 2024, 09:48:30 am »

I think we could use some topic to get people talking so we don’t back into a last-minute suboptimal misexile again (which would now mean losing the game), so I’ll at least post current reads. Currently I’m mostly looking at Robz, Awaclus, and Didds. But my reads this game are not super strong so if people are town they should try to be townier so I can successfully townread them!

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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #658 on: October 06, 2024, 09:50:39 am »

I also think dids is scum. Was waiting to vote till I could go back and do a re-read but the outrage for the swowl exhile feels really fake scummy
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #659 on: October 06, 2024, 09:52:06 am »

Robz doesn’t strike me as scummy, he feels more genuinely concerned for the game than he did in the last game where he was scum.

In general with both Rob and didds I tend to read concern as town and outrage as scum
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #660 on: October 06, 2024, 09:53:26 am »

I’m not sold on shraeye being scummy but I don’t read him well at all. Awaclus I think I am getting better at but I need to re-read him
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #661 on: October 06, 2024, 09:56:00 am »

I promise I will actually get a re-read and stuff done on computer tommorow. I know I said I would last week and then I failed but I will now.

In general re: robz analysis I  agree all three scum were not on wagon though I think like someone else mentioned(joth?) that we need to look at the counter wagon that was also in town.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #662 on: October 06, 2024, 10:03:00 am »

I also do think some scum-chum lists may be of assistance. Normally I have come around to the idea that general reads giving let’s scum know who they should be targeting and who they are safe to keep around but at this stage of the game with so much scum left I think we may be in a position where we need town to just get on the same page for a bit.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #663 on: October 06, 2024, 10:03:13 am »

I also do think some scum-chum lists may be of assistance. Normally I have come around to the idea that general reads giving let’s scum know who they should be targeting and who they are safe to keep around but at this stage of the game with so much scum left I think we may be in a position where we need town to just get on the same page for a bit.

I’m not sold on this idea though
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #664 on: October 06, 2024, 10:05:40 am »

Ugh I also hate the fact that I’m about to push a didds case as didds has announced less availability
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EFHW

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #665 on: October 06, 2024, 10:31:38 am »

So on Day 1, either ALL the scum are on the wagon, or either shraeye or Awaclus is scum.

Ditto for Day 2, except it's shraeye or WCD (or me, in fairness).

Process of elimination seems to point to shraeye, although it seems a little weird to punish him for NOT exiling townies.
It's shortsighted to base the whole analysis on "all the scum wouldn't vote together", especially because the basic vote counts analysis doesn't take into account the PR claim + last minute switching that happened both days.

On both those days no exile was always an option. Last minute push for no-thought misexile sounds like a more effective place to look for scum.
No-exile isn't a great option Days 1 and 2. We need information. I'm kind of surprised to hear you say this.
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EFHW

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #666 on: October 06, 2024, 10:32:21 am »

So on Day 1, either ALL the scum are on the wagon, or either shraeye or Awaclus is scum.

Ditto for Day 2, except it's shraeye or WCD (or me, in fairness).

Process of elimination seems to point to shraeye, although it seems a little weird to punish him for NOT exiling townies.
It's shortsighted to base the whole analysis on "all the scum wouldn't vote together", especially because the basic vote counts analysis doesn't take into account the PR claim + last minute switching that happened both days.

On both those days no exile was always an option. Last minute push for no-thought misexile sounds like a more effective place to look for scum.
No-exile isn't a great option Days 1 and 2. We need information. I'm kind of surprised to hear you say this.
Also, you don't follow up with who those people would be.
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EFHW

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #667 on: October 06, 2024, 10:36:44 am »

(Also I apologize for not being around for deadline yesterday!)
You ended up staying on Cuzz. Why not consolidate before you had to go?
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #668 on: October 06, 2024, 10:40:13 am »

(Also I apologize for not being around for deadline yesterday!)
You ended up staying on Cuzz. Why not consolidate before you had to go?

I didn't realize I was going to miss the deadline. I caught up on the whole move from LL to swowl after the fact.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #669 on: October 06, 2024, 11:26:44 am »

So on Day 1, either ALL the scum are on the wagon, or either shraeye or Awaclus is scum.

Ditto for Day 2, except it's shraeye or WCD (or me, in fairness).

Process of elimination seems to point to shraeye, although it seems a little weird to punish him for NOT exiling townies.
It's shortsighted to base the whole analysis on "all the scum wouldn't vote together", especially because the basic vote counts analysis doesn't take into account the PR claim + last minute switching that happened both days.

On both those days no exile was always an option. Last minute push for no-thought misexile sounds like a more effective place to look for scum.
No-exile isn't a great option Days 1 and 2. We need information. I'm kind of surprised to hear you say this.
Also, you don't follow up with who those people would be.
That's true, but I'm going to check things out deeper when I'm in computer mode. I'm still going to call out half-efforts when I see them
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #670 on: October 06, 2024, 11:26:58 am »

So on Day 1, either ALL the scum are on the wagon, or either shraeye or Awaclus is scum.

Ditto for Day 2, except it's shraeye or WCD (or me, in fairness).

Process of elimination seems to point to shraeye, although it seems a little weird to punish him for NOT exiling townies.
It's shortsighted to base the whole analysis on "all the scum wouldn't vote together", especially because the basic vote counts analysis doesn't take into account the PR claim + last minute switching that happened both days.

On both those days no exile was always an option. Last minute push for no-thought misexile sounds like a more effective place to look for scum.
No-exile isn't a great option Days 1 and 2. We need information. I'm kind of surprised to hear you say this.
Didn't say it was a great option
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #671 on: October 06, 2024, 12:42:52 pm »

Robz doesn’t strike me as scummy, he feels more genuinely concerned for the game than he did in the last game where he was scum.

In general with both Rob and didds I tend to read concern as town and outrage as scum

I think this is sort of fair but he’s not actually doing anything consequential in this game when it matters. On the list of “who seems to genuinely care how town is doing and is trying to help us win”  he’s not particularly high up there.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #672 on: October 06, 2024, 12:43:54 pm »

Robz doesn’t strike me as scummy, he feels more genuinely concerned for the game than he did in the last game where he was scum.

In general with both Rob and didds I tend to read concern as town and outrage as scum

I think this is sort of fair but he’s not actually doing anything consequential in this game when it matters. On the list of “who seems to genuinely care how town is doing and is trying to help us win”  he’s not particularly high up there.

This goes for Didds too, which does seem like a contrast to two games ago when she was town.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #673 on: October 06, 2024, 12:45:20 pm »

I also do think some scum-chum lists may be of assistance. Normally I have come around to the idea that general reads giving let’s scum know who they should be targeting and who they are safe to keep around but at this stage of the game with so much scum left I think we may be in a position where we need town to just get on the same page for a bit.

I have heard this argument recently but I’m yet to be actually convinced of it so I’m totally in favor of people posting reads here.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #674 on: October 06, 2024, 12:46:17 pm »

I also think dids is scum. Was waiting to vote till I could go back and do a re-read but the outrage for the swowl exhile feels really fake scummy

I have a minute before is pass out from tired.

No fake outrage. I think Swowl is super helpful when he’s town and he’s one of the people I understand best. I’m frustrated that the LL claim happened so late that there was no other option. Honestly moving to me or anyone else who wasn’t obvtown would have been better for us as a whole. I don’t think that the last few people voting for him even thought he was a baddie. This is just on reread but EFHW summed it up “to get an exile” when she voted. So I’m frustrated, and think everyone should be, that we can’t seem to figure something out earlier when more people are actually around. Especially when I and gave others have said we are specifically busy at the deadline. So, it’s not outrage. It’s frustration. We’ve done this two days in a row…waited until the last minute and that left it up to a small number of people. I think scum has to be among them, and why cede them that power just because they can be there. I don’t have any solutions for it. Life is gonna life for all of us, but gah.

I apologize if you thought I was pressuring you to vote. I was hoping that we could get some consolidation before I had to go to class. But I don’t like it when people do that to me. I apologize.

In my return to playing after our long hiatus the agreement I made with myself was to try to take things less personally. So I can’t convince you or Cuzz that I’m town, it’s all feels and senses anyway. But if there is an argument there, it shouldn’t be fake outrage. It’s actual frustration.

Cuzz, why isn’t Joth on your list of potential baddies? What has he done that was “consequential”?  Or Mcmc? Who meets your standard?

Sleep now. More later.

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I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.
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