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Author Topic: Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 3)  (Read 6927 times)

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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #550 on: October 02, 2024, 09:38:56 am »

One point about Swowl that is sticking with me is that he was really annoyed that we exiled scola and would have preferred almost anyone else.

That's just Swol's meta to me. Always trying to analyze votes/interactions of flipped players.  Scola had very few interactions.
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faust

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #551 on: October 02, 2024, 09:40:34 am »

Vote Count 2.4

LaLight (4): Swowl, shraeye, WestCoastDidds, EFHW
Swowl (5): LaLight, Awaclus, mcmcsalot, Cuzz, jotheonah
Cuzz (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in under 2 hours.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #552 on: October 02, 2024, 09:40:44 am »

One point about Swowl that is sticking with me is that he was really annoyed that we exiled scola and would have preferred almost anyone else.

His last post D1 was when scola had one vote, and however annoyed he might have been about it after the fact, that's meaningless because it's too late for it to affect anything. To his credit, he was not on the wagon, but that's the only actual thing he did to get someone else exiled instead of scola.
So, Swowl's allowed to be annoyed, but not talk about it?

Or, are you saying that Cuzz shouldn't read into Swowl's annoyance because it has no meaning?

I do not understand your point at all.
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Awaclus

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #553 on: October 02, 2024, 09:49:00 am »

So, Swowl's allowed to be annoyed, but not talk about it?

Or, are you saying that Cuzz shouldn't read into Swowl's annoyance because it has no meaning?

The latter.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #554 on: October 02, 2024, 09:51:55 am »

One point about Swowl that is sticking with me is that he was really annoyed that we exiled scola and would have preferred almost anyone else.

His last post D1 was when scola had one vote, and however annoyed he might have been about it after the fact, that's meaningless because it's too late for it to affect anything. To his credit, he was not on the wagon, but that's the only actual thing he did to get someone else exiled instead of scola.
So, Swowl's allowed to be annoyed, but not talk about it?

Or, are you saying that Cuzz shouldn't read into Swowl's annoyance because it has no meaning?

I do not understand your point at all.

I think awaclus is misinterpreting cuzz, and they are both making the same point that swowl is overly upset about the fact that we exhiled scola. Cuzz said it was a sticking point, implying it sticks out as scummy to him how much swowl has expressed that it was a terrible exhile. Awaclus then took it as cuzz saying that is a point against voting for swowl and awaclus is explaining that even though swowl is against the scola exhile (a misexhile which I guess being against a misexile is towny) swowl didn;t really do much to prevent the scola exhile at the time he has simply scolded us all for doing it after the fact. Awaclus is saying that swowl's anti-scola exhile rhetoric should not be percieved as townie. Cuzz is saying its wierd how anti-scola exhile swowl is because cuzz thinks it was a good option after efhw claimed.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #555 on: October 02, 2024, 09:52:34 am »

So, Swowl's allowed to be annoyed, but not talk about it?

Or, are you saying that Cuzz shouldn't read into Swowl's annoyance because it has no meaning?

The latter.

The amount of time people say this and my dumb american brain goes...soooo which one is that...
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #556 on: October 02, 2024, 10:06:05 am »

One point about Swowl that is sticking with me is that he was really annoyed that we exiled scola and would have preferred almost anyone else.

His last post D1 was when scola had one vote, and however annoyed he might have been about it after the fact, that's meaningless because it's too late for it to affect anything. To his credit, he was not on the wagon, but that's the only actual thing he did to get someone else exiled instead of scola.
So, Swowl's allowed to be annoyed, but not talk about it?

Or, are you saying that Cuzz shouldn't read into Swowl's annoyance because it has no meaning?

I do not understand your point at all.

I think awaclus is misinterpreting cuzz, and they are both making the same point that swowl is overly upset about the fact that we exhiled scola. Cuzz said it was a sticking point, implying it sticks out as scummy to him how much swowl has expressed that it was a terrible exhile. Awaclus then took it as cuzz saying that is a point against voting for swowl and awaclus is explaining that even though swowl is against the scola exhile (a misexhile which I guess being against a misexile is towny) swowl didn;t really do much to prevent the scola exhile at the time he has simply scolded us all for doing it after the fact. Awaclus is saying that swowl's anti-scola exhile rhetoric should not be percieved as townie. Cuzz is saying its wierd how anti-scola exhile swowl is because cuzz thinks it was a good option after efhw claimed.
This overexplanation makes sense to me.  Awaclus, how well did mcmc see into your brain?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #557 on: October 02, 2024, 10:20:37 am »

So, Swowl's allowed to be annoyed, but not talk about it?

Or, are you saying that Cuzz shouldn't read into Swowl's annoyance because it has no meaning?

Ha! The “former” is much harder. At least latter sounds like later.

The latter.

The amount of time people say this and my dumb american brain goes...soooo which one is that...
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #558 on: October 02, 2024, 10:24:56 am »

Quote fail. Oh well.

I’m dumbfounded that Swowl has generated this many votes. I’m just not reading him as scummy and fail to see what y’all see as out of character for him. He is easily the player that I read best and think the most like and that often makes me give him the benefit of the doubt, but also, I usually can feel before everyone else when he’s off. I think that’s a bad exile. At the point it looks inevitable, unless all the baddies are already on him. If I’m wrong, beers are on me. But I just don’t think he’s a baddie.
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jotheonah

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #559 on: October 02, 2024, 10:30:17 am »

I mean if Robz shows up and votes for LaLight then we'll be in a pickle -- someone will need to be swayed.
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jotheonah

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #560 on: October 02, 2024, 10:32:02 am »

We have one hour.
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jotheonah

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #561 on: October 02, 2024, 10:32:50 am »

Personally I don't have much of a read on Swowl either way, but I have a town read on LaLight.
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Swowl

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #562 on: October 02, 2024, 10:39:35 am »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Well, here is something we could do. There aren't that many people still alive who were off the scola wagon. Do we think all scum we're on wagon? That seems unlikely. Let's assume there is one scum off the wagon.

If so, one of shraeye, swowl, and Awaclus would have to be mafia.

I guess that's fundamentally the same odds as overall, where 3 in 9 are scum. But it's not the same odds for those three players: Awaclus if town (for instance) has a 50/50 between shraeye and swowl.

But all three of them are voting for LaLight!

Vote Count 2.2

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, Awaclus
Swowl (1): LaLight
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
Robz888 (1): Cuzz
jotheonah (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in 33 hours and 20 minutes.

Not sure what to make of this.

For those of us on the scola wagon, assuming two scum on wagon, us townies have 2/6 odds.

Of course it gets weirder if say, somehow two scum were off wagon.

I dunno. I kinda have some feeling we should be looking off wagon, actually. Scola and Galz both being off wagon has made this a somewhat unusual situation.


I don’t agree with this, but I am fine with it because it is an ok point - I’m just on the other side of it.

Except one thing.
What does the 3 of us all being on LL have to do with anything?

@ Cuzz  - I never got an answer to this unless I am missing it

That’s a question for Robz, not for me.

Correct you are
@ robz then

Swowl

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #563 on: October 02, 2024, 10:43:01 am »

One point about Swowl that is sticking with me is that he was really annoyed that we exiled scola and would have preferred almost anyone else.

His last post D1 was when scola had one vote, and however annoyed he might have been about it after the fact, that's meaningless because it's too late for it to affect anything. To his credit, he was not on the wagon, but that's the only actual thing he did to get someone else exiled instead of scola.

Again, would have if I could have. It all happened while I was asleep.

Swowl

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #564 on: October 02, 2024, 10:49:48 am »

Awaclus is an amazing mafia player because he has a remarkably consistent meta as town or scum.

Unfortunately that meta is consistently frustrating.

He plays it close to the vest. The only way to really catch him is in the late game when you can analyze his votes with information from flips.

It's not a terrible place to vote, but I'm not the most interested.

Sure but he’s typically at least making underexplained arguments and refusing to expand on his mindset, plus usually making some vaguely pro-town points about setup and metagame stuff. In this game he’s basically done nothing but vote.
He also explicitly did not counterclaim having no targets last night. Very carefully worded.

50% assume everyone caught that.
50% really hate that you pointed this out.

Now that it is out I would like to say it makes me lean town on Awaclus. I assume skum!Awa in this spot would of just taken it and said they didn't target anyone, and not make it wordy.
Wait, why do you hate my pointing it out?


Just cuz if it’s skum being sneaky somehow could have let them think they got away with one. I still think the take is more towny, but that was my thought

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #565 on: October 02, 2024, 10:51:58 am »

Oh and joth who is still voting for me after admitting that his heart wasn’t in it, asking me to argue for anyone else, and then ignoring all subsequent discussion about other options even as it becomes clear that I’m probably not actually going to be the one who gets exiled today.

I just moved my vote friend.

Sorry missed this.
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jotheonah

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #566 on: October 02, 2024, 10:59:30 am »

sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #567 on: October 02, 2024, 11:02:15 am »

sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?

here but not willing

also Swowl being at L-1 and not claiming is very suspicious
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Swowl

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #568 on: October 02, 2024, 11:02:30 am »

LL why are you voting me?
The last reason I saw was omgus

I told twice already, I don't feel like you're town at all

I have seen the you don’t feel town posts. I asked for a reason

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #569 on: October 02, 2024, 11:03:19 am »

sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?

I can. My main suspicion of LaLight is that his very first post of the day about the Galz kill seemed a little forced/faked, so I was thinking of him as scummy early on and then it kinda faded. I don’t feel amazing about it but we gotta do something.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #570 on: October 02, 2024, 11:03:24 am »

sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?

here but not willing

also Swowl being at L-1 and not claiming is very suspicious

There is no value to be had by my claiming.

Explain why me not claiming is suspicious though please

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #571 on: October 02, 2024, 11:04:22 am »

alright. I'm sorry LaLight. I was townreading you. I hope I was wrong.

vote: LaLight -- that's L1
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LaLight

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #572 on: October 02, 2024, 11:04:41 am »

sigh... ok half an hour. it's time to talk about how we get an exile. If I move to LaLight is someone else here and willing?

here but not willing

also Swowl being at L-1 and not claiming is very suspicious

There is no value to be had by my claiming.

Explain why me not claiming is suspicious though please

the value for you is that if you're town, claiming may save you toDay
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #573 on: October 02, 2024, 11:04:57 am »

heck! I'm rolestopper!
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #574 on: October 02, 2024, 11:05:26 am »

of course you are
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