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Author Topic: Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Game over - Mafia wins!)  (Read 18463 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #500 on: October 01, 2024, 09:09:14 am »

Vote: Swowl
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LaLight

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #501 on: October 01, 2024, 11:48:01 am »

@Lalight and Didds - Why did you each react so strongly to my Cuzz vote?
I don't think LL has answered this.

i didn't like the reasoning behind it and actually liked the topic a lot
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #502 on: October 01, 2024, 01:00:20 pm »

@Lalight and Didds - Why did you each react so strongly to my Cuzz vote?
I don't think LL has answered this.

i didn't like the reasoning behind it and actually liked the topic a lot
Ok, but why so strongly emphatic? What didn't you like about my reasoning?
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LaLight

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #503 on: October 01, 2024, 01:06:54 pm »

@Lalight and Didds - Why did you each react so strongly to my Cuzz vote?
I don't think LL has answered this.

i didn't like the reasoning behind it and actually liked the topic a lot
Ok, but why so strongly emphatic? What didn't you like about my reasoning?

it looked like we finally got out of rvs thanks to Cuzz and then you tried to "punish" him for it
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Robz888

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #504 on: October 01, 2024, 01:49:27 pm »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Well, here is something we could do. There aren't that many people still alive who were off the scola wagon. Do we think all scum we're on wagon? That seems unlikely. Let's assume there is one scum off the wagon.

If so, one of shraeye, swowl, and Awaclus would have to be mafia.

I guess that's fundamentally the same odds as overall, where 3 in 9 are scum. But it's not the same odds for those three players: Awaclus if town (for instance) has a 50/50 between shraeye and swowl.

But all three of them are voting for LaLight!

Vote Count 2.2

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, Awaclus
Swowl (1): LaLight
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
Robz888 (1): Cuzz
jotheonah (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in 33 hours and 20 minutes.

Not sure what to make of this.

For those of us on the scola wagon, assuming two scum on wagon, us townies have 2/6 odds.

Of course it gets weirder if say, somehow two scum were off wagon.

I dunno. I kinda have some feeling we should be looking off wagon, actually. Scola and Galz both being off wagon has made this a somewhat unusual situation.
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Swowl

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #505 on: October 01, 2024, 04:17:28 pm »

Vote: Swowl

Not going to bother asking.
I do find it interesting you are hopping between me and the person I am voting for.
And left the person you were voting for to join them.

shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #506 on: October 01, 2024, 05:43:24 pm »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Well, here is something we could do. There aren't that many people still alive who were off the scola wagon. Do we think all scum we're on wagon? That seems unlikely. Let's assume there is one scum off the wagon.

...

Scola and Galz both being off wagon has made this a somewhat unusual situation.
I don't think scola being off wagon is particularly unusual.

But also, I disagree with the premise "scum wouldn't all vote for a last-minute pivot exile that hit town".  That's a very easy misexile to vote for if you're scum while garnering very little suspicion
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #507 on: October 01, 2024, 05:51:59 pm »

Didds count 2.1

LaLight (2): Swowl, shraeye,
Swowl (2): LaLight, Awaclus
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
jotheonah (2): WestCoastDidds, Cuzz

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

Ya'll the deadline is 29 hours away. Can we at least start to consolidate tonight so its not a scramble in the morning when some of us are working?

I am not at all excited about Swowl based on who is voting for him. Mcmc, can you settle somewhere? EFHW, how are you feeling abut the mcmc vote? I'm not really willing to move to Cuzz or swowl today.
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shraeye

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #508 on: October 01, 2024, 06:11:03 pm »

Then do LaLight.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #509 on: October 01, 2024, 06:27:41 pm »

Ooh I seem to recall wcd having a strong opposition toward being pressured to place their vote somewhere in the last game or two. Interesting she is now pressuring me :)

Vote: swowl

I actually think robz’s analysis of off wagon scum is pretty strong.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #510 on: October 01, 2024, 07:30:02 pm »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Well, here is something we could do. There aren't that many people still alive who were off the scola wagon. Do we think all scum we're on wagon? That seems unlikely. Let's assume there is one scum off the wagon.

...

Scola and Galz both being off wagon has made this a somewhat unusual situation.
I don't think scola being off wagon is particularly unusual.

But also, I disagree with the premise "scum wouldn't all vote for a last-minute pivot exile that hit town".  That's a very easy misexile to vote for if you're scum while garnering very little suspicion

Yeah but it’s also an easy way to get mild cred for avoiding the misexile since town probably wasn’t gonna let us no-exile no matter what.

(Except that no one is actually giving any cred)

I wouldn’t be shocked if one scum was off wagon, and swowl and awaclus are both reasonable options for me. But awaclus is voting swowl hmmmm.

Vote: Awaclus

Hes doing a similar thing as usual, but he at least usually has some helpful pro-town comments here and there. As of now I don’t see any reason to feel like he’s working towards a town win.

Not trying to be annoying and start a brand new wagon but I don’t love any of the other options at the moment and im genuinely interested in others’ thoughts since awaclus has had zero heat so far this game.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #511 on: October 01, 2024, 08:02:16 pm »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Cuzz (1): Awaclus
EFHW (1): Galzria
jotheonah (1): Swowl
Galzria (2): shraeye, scolapasta
scolapasta (7): Robz888, Cuzz, LaLight, EFHW, WestCoastDidds, jotheonah, mcmcsalot

Well, here is something we could do. There aren't that many people still alive who were off the scola wagon. Do we think all scum we're on wagon? That seems unlikely. Let's assume there is one scum off the wagon.

If so, one of shraeye, swowl, and Awaclus would have to be mafia.

I guess that's fundamentally the same odds as overall, where 3 in 9 are scum. But it's not the same odds for those three players: Awaclus if town (for instance) has a 50/50 between shraeye and swowl.

But all three of them are voting for LaLight!

Vote Count 2.2

LaLight (3): Swowl, shraeye, Awaclus
Swowl (1): LaLight
mcmcsalot (1): EFHW
Cuzz (2): jotheonah, Robz888
Robz888 (1): Cuzz
jotheonah (1): WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 lasts until October 02, 2024, 11:30:00 am. This is in 33 hours and 20 minutes.

Not sure what to make of this.

For those of us on the scola wagon, assuming two scum on wagon, us townies have 2/6 odds.

Of course it gets weirder if say, somehow two scum were off wagon.

I dunno. I kinda have some feeling we should be looking off wagon, actually. Scola and Galz both being off wagon has made this a somewhat unusual situation.


I don’t agree with this, but I am fine with it because it is an ok point - I’m just on the other side of it.

Except one thing.
What does the 3 of us all being on LL have to do with anything?

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #512 on: October 01, 2024, 08:03:05 pm »

Ooh I seem to recall wcd having a strong opposition toward being pressured to place their vote somewhere in the last game or two. Interesting she is now pressuring me :)

Vote: swowl

I actually think robz’s analysis of off wagon scum is pretty strong.

This is not omgus.


No it is not. He is not skummy for posting it. You are skummy for saying it’s strong.

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #513 on: October 01, 2024, 08:41:03 pm »

Ooh I seem to recall wcd having a strong opposition toward being pressured to place their vote somewhere in the last game or two. Interesting she is now pressuring me :)

Vote: swowl

I actually think robz’s analysis of off wagon scum is pretty strong.

This is not omgus.


No it is not. He is not skummy for posting it. You are skummy for saying it’s strong.

What’s wrong with it, what are you talking about? Do you know something more about Awaclus and shraeye’s alignment than the rest of us do?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #514 on: October 01, 2024, 09:08:26 pm »

Ooh I seem to recall wcd having a strong opposition toward being pressured to place their vote somewhere in the last game or two. Interesting she is now pressuring me :)

Vote: swowl

I actually think robz’s analysis of off wagon scum is pretty strong.

Ha ha! That was 3.5 days before the deadline. This is the night before a morning deadline! It’s different! Plus I’m much more gentle :)
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #515 on: October 01, 2024, 09:13:05 pm »

The fizzle of the Joth wagon is suuuuuuper interesting. But I have to watch the debate and do some commentary thing after so I’m out for a while.

Between the three leading wagons, Cuzz, LL and Swowl, I’ll vote: LaLight
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #516 on: October 01, 2024, 09:46:35 pm »

Ooh I seem to recall wcd having a strong opposition toward being pressured to place their vote somewhere in the last game or two. Interesting she is now pressuring me :)

Vote: swowl

I actually think robz’s analysis of off wagon scum is pretty strong.

This is not omgus.


No it is not. He is not skummy for posting it. You are skummy for saying it’s strong.

What’s wrong with it, what are you talking about? Do you know something more about Awaclus and shraeye’s alignment than the rest of us do?


Role fish much?


It’s lazy. Which by itself is meh. But for someone to read it and say “that’s a solid point” is skummy.

Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #517 on: October 01, 2024, 10:00:04 pm »

Ooh I seem to recall wcd having a strong opposition toward being pressured to place their vote somewhere in the last game or two. Interesting she is now pressuring me :)

Vote: swowl

I actually think robz’s analysis of off wagon scum is pretty strong.

This is not omgus.


No it is not. He is not skummy for posting it. You are skummy for saying it’s strong.

What’s wrong with it, what are you talking about? Do you know something more about Awaclus and shraeye’s alignment than the rest of us do?


Role fish much?


It’s lazy. Which by itself is meh. But for someone to read it and say “that’s a solid point” is skummy.

It was not a rolefish, it was a FoS on you.

I’m having a bizarre experience where I just so strongly disagree with almost everything Swowl has said this whole game and it’s a little maddening. I’m not certain it means he’s scum but he does seem really different from last game.

Does anyone have any opinions about Awaclus?
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #518 on: October 01, 2024, 10:25:01 pm »

Awaclus is an amazing mafia player because he has a remarkably consistent meta as town or scum.

Unfortunately that meta is consistently frustrating.

He plays it close to the vest. The only way to really catch him is in the late game when you can analyze his votes with information from flips.

It's not a terrible place to vote, but I'm not the most interested.
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Cuzz

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #519 on: October 01, 2024, 10:47:27 pm »

Awaclus is an amazing mafia player because he has a remarkably consistent meta as town or scum.

Unfortunately that meta is consistently frustrating.

He plays it close to the vest. The only way to really catch him is in the late game when you can analyze his votes with information from flips.

It's not a terrible place to vote, but I'm not the most interested.

Sure but he’s typically at least making underexplained arguments and refusing to expand on his mindset, plus usually making some vaguely pro-town points about setup and metagame stuff. In this game he’s basically done nothing but vote.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #520 on: October 01, 2024, 11:16:04 pm »

Ooh I seem to recall wcd having a strong opposition toward being pressured to place their vote somewhere in the last game or two. Interesting she is now pressuring me :)

Vote: swowl

I actually think robz’s analysis of off wagon scum is pretty strong.

This is not omgus.


No it is not. He is not skummy for posting it. You are skummy for saying it’s strong.

What’s wrong with it, what are you talking about? Do you know something more about Awaclus and shraeye’s alignment than the rest of us do?


Role fish much?


It’s lazy. Which by itself is meh. But for someone to read it and say “that’s a solid point” is skummy.

It was not a rolefish, it was a FoS on you.

I’m having a bizarre experience where I just so strongly disagree with almost everything Swowl has said this whole game and it’s a little maddening. I’m not certain it means he’s scum but he does seem really different from last game.

Does anyone have any opinions about Awaclus?

understood. Although, I think that you and me were cats and dogs last game too. Not sure on that though. I could just be remembering the end. You also obv had alt motives in that game, so whatever.

This game though. Let's see if we can get through this one right here.

I posted a case that pretty much lands in the bucket of "people on the wagon are skum"
Robz posts the case that "people off the wagon are skum".

In my opinion, Robz case is lazy because it is way easier to just say "there are less people in this bucket, let's look there", where as mine breaks down what (I at least thought) was quite a few kind of deep dive potential player specific possibilities.

Now, I am obviously bias. And again, I want to make note that I do not think Robz is skummy for his case. I have made bad cases as town like it is my god damn religion... but I guess I would like to know why you defend his point of view here.

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #521 on: October 01, 2024, 11:18:54 pm »

Awaclus is an amazing mafia player because he has a remarkably consistent meta as town or scum.

Unfortunately that meta is consistently frustrating.

He plays it close to the vest. The only way to really catch him is in the late game when you can analyze his votes with information from flips.

It's not a terrible place to vote, but I'm not the most interested.

Sure but he’s typically at least making underexplained arguments and refusing to expand on his mindset, plus usually making some vaguely pro-town points about setup and metagame stuff. In this game he’s basically done nothing but vote.

Gonna echo here.
Last game with awa was probably the only time I have ever played with him where I had a read day 1.
This is normal.

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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #522 on: October 01, 2024, 11:58:48 pm »

Awaclus is an amazing mafia player because he has a remarkably consistent meta as town or scum.

Unfortunately that meta is consistently frustrating.

He plays it close to the vest. The only way to really catch him is in the late game when you can analyze his votes with information from flips.

It's not a terrible place to vote, but I'm not the most interested.

Sure but he’s typically at least making underexplained arguments and refusing to expand on his mindset, plus usually making some vaguely pro-town points about setup and metagame stuff. In this game he’s basically done nothing but vote.
He also explicitly did not counterclaim having no targets last night. Very carefully worded.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #523 on: October 02, 2024, 12:05:52 am »

I won't be here at deadline, but I'll check in in the morning. I wanted to reread tonight, but ended up working and watching the debate. I'll vote: Lalight for consolidation.
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Re: M142: Spiel des Jahres Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #524 on: October 02, 2024, 12:48:40 am »

I will still be here for several hours. But I will also wake up early to be here about 30 before DL.
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