Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[jotheonah]

It's a surprising amount of consensus.

one could also use the word "suspicious"

That said, I feel pretty good about the emerging consensus on its face.

[jotheonah]

Remove: Awaclus, Mix
Add: Robz888, cuzz

Let's make a competing wagon.

[Awaclus]

Alternatively I can agree with the current coalition but I think there's like 0% chance of it being game winning.

Is that because you're in it?

[Jack Rudd]

Huh, well, so much for my reverse OMGUS. "Pick a coalition that has me in it and make mine equal to that" can only take me so far, it seems.

[Awaclus]

Remove: MiX
Add: Cuzz

[Cuzz]

Ok so scola is thread spewed town? For not having any coalition votes? Is that a viable read in this game/meta?

By the way sorry for not posting much but I am involved in too many things 

Remove everyone

Add: Mix, cuzz, scola, mcmc, robz

Alternatively I can agree with the current coalition but I think there's like 0% chance of it being game winning. Mine trusts the bros, but that's about all it does.

Why 0% when the baseline is 17%?

[Awaclus]

Ok so scola is thread spewed town? For not having any coalition votes? Is that a viable read in this game/meta?

By the way sorry for not posting much but I am involved in too many things 

Remove everyone

Add: Mix, cuzz, scola, mcmc, robz

Alternatively I can agree with the current coalition but I think there's like 0% chance of it being game winning. Mine trusts the bros, but that's about all it does.

Why 0% when the baseline is 17%?

The baseline is actually higher than 17% if you're in the coalition and you know you're town. On the other hand, if you're in it and you know you're scum, the baseline is 0%.

[mcmcsalot]

It's a surprising amount of consensus.

one could also use the word "suspicious"

That said, I feel pretty good about the emerging consensus on its face.

I had been thinking about this quite a bit and I actually think consensus is fine in a way. It is not like anyone has pushed for a coalition that doesn't include themselves. If we had say a 5 town coalition in me, you, robz, mix and awaclus. Scum is simply going to say yea i like most of that, and do a variation of the exact same coalition that includes themselves because town and scum alike are going to always include themself. So scums best bet if there was a 5 town coalition being thrown around is to agree with that coalition with the only exception being the defendable position of including themself. So scum is as likely to sheep a vocal town pushed coalition as they are to support and/or vocally push their own scummy coalition.

I haven't seen or read any other games of this type but I would guess early coalitions groupings are likely to get supported on mass regardless of townieness or scumminess.

[Robz888]

Consensus here is good, because it means we will actually get an approved coalition. We should never forget that in these forums, towns ROUTINELY fail to take decisive action up until the last moment, screwing themselves over in the process and ending up with sub-optimal exiles based on whoever is around or not around.

[mcmcsalot]

Mix can you explain why you chose those 5 for your coalition please.

[Jack Rudd]

More mathematics! If you are Town, there are 8C4 coalitions that include you, and 6C4 that are all-town and include you. Those numbers are 70 and 15 respectively, so the probability goes up from 17% to 21%. Small, but not negligible.

[scolapasta]

Sorry, haven't posted (or read) anything in past couple of days. been busy.  And I'm never good at D1s anyone, though I guess this is really a D0.

I'll try to catch up today or tomorrow, and post any useful thoughts.

(I'll also be VLA Friday through some time Monday - going to NYC) but back late Monday, early Tuesday with plenty of time for end of D0.

[mcmcsalot]

Jack could you give a philosophy behind why you picked the 5 you did for your coalition? No need to say why the individuals, just curious on what caused you to come to that coalition.

[MiX]

Yeah I think I was just wrong and you just do whatever coalition pops up with your name on first and pray it's right. That is so...stupid.

Remove everyone

Add: MiX, joth, awaclus, mcmc, robz

I keep thinking about what scum would do to disrupt this and I think the answer is nothing, there is actually nothing they can do there is no decision making or interaction you just pick 4 other people that you pray aren't scum and you roll with it.

Alternatively I can agree with the current coalition but I think there's like 0% chance of it being game winning.

Is that because you're in it?

I think the odds of you, joth, mcmc and robz being all town are negligible.

Mix can you explain why you chose those 5 for your coalition please.

I think you, cuzz, scola and robz are town. Cuzz and scola more so, although I think the reasoning for scola is not well founded anymore. I'd put eevee instead now.

[mcmcsalot]

Sorry, haven't posted (or read) anything in past couple of days. been busy.  And I'm never good at D1s anyone, though I guess this is really a D0.

I'll try to catch up today or tomorrow, and post any useful thoughts.

(I'll also be VLA Friday through some time Monday - going to NYC) but back late Monday, early Tuesday with plenty of time for end of D0.

Just a heads up my thoughts so far are that the interactions going into the formation of the coalition may end up being as valuable if not more than the actual final coalition so if you could get some reactions or thoughts regarding anything that's going on so far between now and Friday that would be very helpful.

[mcmcsalot]

Wonderful thank you mix!

[jotheonah]

I now have the opportunity to hammer.

Should I?

Technically anyone can hammer, but I'm the only person in the coalition who's not voting for it yet.

[mcmcsalot]

Ok so scola is thread spewed town? For not having any coalition votes? Is that a viable read in this game/meta?

By the way sorry for not posting much but I am involved in too many things 

Remove everyone

Add: Mix, cuzz, scola, mcmc, robz

Alternatively I can agree with the current coalition but I think there's like 0% chance of it being game winning. Mine trusts the bros, but that's about all it does.

So interesting data point that Mix here comes in and does not sheep the 3 man coalition wagon which includes Mix.

Upon first glance that is townie, as was it townie of Joth to not bring the coalition to L-1. Town should not have the "any coalition with me is good" vibe that scum will have.

However Mix was included in 6 of 9 players coalition after having very little posts so I doubt that makes scum!mix very nervous of being on the outs. And if I think if mix is scum the variation of the common coalition he suggests serves to buddy myself and robz while adding a complete and total lurker into the coalition. Cuzz was not in the 3 man wagon so he's likely to get support from a town!cuzz there.

So on second glance this feels like a great move for scum!mix to make.




Insert me asking Cuzz to elaborate aaaaand we now have an explanation from mix which is that his coalition vote is town read based more so on Cuzz and Scola specifically Cuzz.

Mix however decides to throw this idea away in favor of the original majority wagon of mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus, mix. Stating its best to join the one that includes yourself, you know that any coalition with me vibe which scum should have. Strange as it no longer includes his strongest town read.

What changed between when mix initially came in with his town read based coalition vote.

Remove: Awaclus, Mix
Add: Robz888, cuzz

Let's make a competing wagon.

Remove: MiX
Add: Cuzz

two of the players in said majority coalition remove mix from their coalitions, threat of not being includes arises and town reads are cast aside to make sure he himself is with the majority.

quickly posting remove: mix

[mcmcsalot]

I now have the opportunity to hammer.

Should I?

Technically anyone can hammer, but I'm the only person in the coalition who's not voting for it yet.

dont scare me like that! you couldn't hammer, awaclus had swapped mix out for cuzz

[mcmcsalot]

I now have the opportunity to hammer.

Should I?

Technically anyone can hammer, but I'm the only person in the coalition who's not voting for it yet.

dont scare me like that! you couldn't hammer, awaclus had swapped mix out for cuzz

I have lots more analysing to do!

[mcmcsalot]

Current status I believe

Robz888 (5/5):      mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus, mix
mcmcsalot (5/5):   mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus,
MiX (5/5):             mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus, mix

Awaclus (5/5):       mcmc, robz, Joth, awaclus,        cuzz
cuzz (5/5):            mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus,         cuzz

Eevee (5/5):          mcmc, robz, joth,                      cuzz, eevee
jotheonah (5/5):    mcmc, robz, joth,                      cuzz, eevee


Jack Rudd (5/5):               robz,                      mix, cuzz, eevee

[mcmcsalot]

Okay back to the mix analysis...well actually I think that was about the end, needless to say I think mix's moves around the coalition wagon are scummy.

[MiX]

Shrug. I already lost hope in getting the coalition win anyway.

[mcmcsalot]

I have also gone back and checked Cuzz's movements around the time of the 3 man coalition wagon as he is the other active player whose name has been thrown around.

I sub eevee for awaclus joining Robz in the mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus, mix wagon.

Cuzz adds me essentially joining the major coalition with the exception of awaclus for himself

Awaclus brings the wagon to 3

Cuzz removes Mix and adds awaclus.

Again interesting data point. Cuzz as expected from town or scum sheeps the majority coalition but includes himself, however this matches his townreads so far aside from me who one could guess he has gained a townread on me over time.

Crucially he decides to switch very quickly after awaclus has joined the coalition wagon from mix to awaclus. Unlike what happened with Mix, Cuzz is not included in the majority coalition the way Mix was. Doesn't Scum!Cuzz want to stick with Mix hoping when he shows up he decides to include Cuzz in his coalition vote. Scum!cuzz is making it harder for town!mix to join a coalition other than the leading one which already includes mix and doesn't include Cuzz.

That I think is very townie behavior

Add: Cuzz

Brings me to Mcmc, Robz, Joth, Awaclus, Cuzz

[mcmcsalot]

Robz888 (5/5):      mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus, mix
MiX (5/5):             mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus, mix

Awaclus (5/5):       mcmc, robz, Joth, awaclus,        cuzz
cuzz (5/5):            mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus,         cuzz
mcmcsalot (5/5):   mcmc, robz, joth, awaclus,         cuzz

Eevee (5/5):          mcmc, robz, joth,                      cuzz, eevee
jotheonah (5/5):    mcmc, robz, joth,                      cuzz, eevee


Jack Rudd (5/5):               robz,                      mix, cuzz, eevee