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Pearl Diver / Jester Madness + Community Challenge

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Captain_Frisk:
My new favorite opponent ARTjoMS and I just finished playing a match - with identical starts:
http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201204/12/game-20120412-100225-18d2a278.html

We both open pearl diver / jester.

I'm first player, and draw Pearl Diver, Estate, and 3 Coppers.
I play the pearl diver, draw a copper, and bottom card is an Estate.

I elect to leave the estate on the bottom - and I'm happy because I now know for sure that my next hand is Jester + 3 Coppers + Estate.  My Jester won't miss the shuffle.

Fast forward a while (say around turn 10ish), and ART feels that I am being very lucky.  Naturally, I feel the opposite.  I've only played my jester twice, it's hit copper both times, and he's jestered a tournament from me (note that jester hitting a good card is really painful - not only does your opponent get something good, but the card misses that shuffle for you).  I managed to get first province, but the decks are big enough, and it at the start of the reshuffle, so I won't see it for blocking or tournament winning for a while.

I don't feel that I've made any major errors... perhaps my 2nd terminal of merchant ship was a bad idea // too early?  (Since we both opened Jester / Pearl Diver, it couldn't have been that offensive... although suspect that WW And Geronimoooo will suggest that MerchantShip was the way to go). 

So I ask him what he thinks my error was that justifies an accusation of luck.

12:48 Captain_Frisk: boooo
12:49 ARTjoMS: well if u win this... then soz but it is pure luck.
12:49 Captain_Frisk: you think i've made major errors?
12:50 ARTjoMS: pearl diver 1st turn
12:50 ARTjoMS: u left estate as last card
12:50 Captain_Frisk: why wouldn't i?
12:50 ARTjoMS: u dont mind curse?
12:50 Captain_Frisk: if i didn't, then jester could have missed shuffle
12:50 ARTjoMS: chances are...
12:50 ARTjoMS: smaaaaallllllll
12:51 Captain_Frisk: i'll post this in the forum after
12:51 Captain_Frisk: i'm curious

So - ARTjoMS has a 42-50% (its somewhere in the middle, but I'm too lazy to figure it out) chance of having a Jester in his hand on T3. 

If he has the jester, than leaving the estate guarantees 100% that I will receive a curse, but I still get to play my jester, and I have a $5 buy.

If I top deck the estate, then the probabilities are now:

20% - He hits my jester.  This is absolutely the worst case.  Not only do I not get to play my jester, but he picks up a free copy, AND my T4 is a $3 buy.  I feel that my chances of winning the game at this point would be very very low.
60% - He hits a copper.  This is marginally better than hitting an estate.  I'll only have $4 on this turn... which isn't a big deal because a tournament is probably not significantly worse than picking up a merchant ship or a jester.
20% - He hits my other estate.  No change.

I didn't give it this much thought when I made the decision, and after review, I'm still feeling pretty confident that this wasn't an error in play.  Picking up a curse instead of a copper is less good for sure, but the loss of the jester would be absolutely crippling.

So the question to the dominionstrategy audience is:

Who is right?  Have we all just learned a new trick?

Disclaimer: ARTjoMS may still be angry at me for this absolutely ridiculous luck based come from behind win: http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120411-145350-62684b4e.html, in which ARTjoMS correctly pointed out that I should have bought a gold instead of my 2nd wharf, and I only managed to win due to some stupid lucky desperation thief purchase and play.  My lifetime record against him is now 3-2-1.  It probably should be: 2-4-0.

Thisisnotasmile:
Correct me if I'm worng but by leaving that Estate on the bottom you guarantee that if he does have Jester turn three, he will hit that Estate, and not a Copper, because you will have drawn the 5 cards on top of it for your turn 4 already?

Edit: Jester is not Swindler.

jonts26:
I think you were right to leave it there. The ~50% chance of taking a curse is worth the guaranteed $5 buy on turn 4 I think.

Though I will say that taking an extra copper instead of a curse is a bit more than marginally different.

EDIT: Actually since you have a 20% chance of getting the curse anyway the added chance of getting a curse is quite a bit lower than 50%, so I think that favors your play even more.

Voltgloss:
Also don't forget that, more than half the time, your opponent will NOT have Jester available on turn 3.  In which case, leaving the Estate on the bottom (1) guarantees your Jester will not miss the reshuffle; and (2) means that Estate will be in your hand during your opponent's turn 4, reducing the chance of a turn 4 Jester giving you a Curse.  Under those circumstances, leaving the Estate is clearly the better play.  This, plus jonts26's analysis, suggests to me that leaving the Estate was the right move.

RisingJaguar:
The best part is that the end result... was a tie.

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