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[Cuzz]

The fact that scola has been gunning for Didds and not Jimmmm today is a massive red flag.

Again, there are a bunch of edge case possibilities but the absolute most reasonable way to look at things today is that it's most likely that exactly one of scola and Jimmmm is scum, and exactly one of EFHW and faust is scum. But none of them really seem to be pushing the case on their counterpart, except faust I think (though I think he didn't say who precisely he is ready to vote for but I'm assuming it's EFHW), which is the way to actually maximize the chance of town winning. So I have to think this is mostly scum being overly cautious and trying not to look too jumpy, with any town among them putting too much stock into weird coincidences at the expense of a near-scum-result.

This is an annoyingly well said argument

it's a regularly well said argument!

[Swowl]

Pasta - why did you not wait until the end of the claim list to CC?

Why ring the bell then instead of waiting for the rest of the claims?

[Swowl]

The fact that scola has been gunning for Didds and not Jimmmm today is a massive red flag.

Again, there are a bunch of edge case possibilities but the absolute most reasonable way to look at things today is that it's most likely that exactly one of scola and Jimmmm is scum, and exactly one of EFHW and faust is scum. But none of them really seem to be pushing the case on their counterpart, except faust I think (though I think he didn't say who precisely he is ready to vote for but I'm assuming it's EFHW), which is the way to actually maximize the chance of town winning. So I have to think this is mostly scum being overly cautious and trying not to look too jumpy, with any town among them putting too much stock into weird coincidences at the expense of a near-scum-result.

This is an annoyingly well said argument

it's a regularly well said argument!

apologies if this is a dupe. like I said - wife weekend this last few days, I have been doing my best but I am little spotty on individual detail posts.

[Swowl]

The fact that scola has been gunning for Didds and not Jimmmm today is a massive red flag.

Again, there are a bunch of edge case possibilities but the absolute most reasonable way to look at things today is that it's most likely that exactly one of scola and Jimmmm is scum, and exactly one of EFHW and faust is scum. But none of them really seem to be pushing the case on their counterpart, except faust I think (though I think he didn't say who precisely he is ready to vote for but I'm assuming it's EFHW), which is the way to actually maximize the chance of town winning. So I have to think this is mostly scum being overly cautious and trying not to look too jumpy, with any town among them putting too much stock into weird coincidences at the expense of a near-scum-result.

This is an annoyingly well said argument

it's a regularly well said argument!

apologies if this is a dupe. like I said - wife weekend this last few days, I have been doing my best but I am little spotty on individual detail posts.

sorry to be clear - I am talking about the jumpy town vs skum duos. not specifically pasta when I say it is a good point. although, tbf that is part of the point.

[Swowl]

Hey Cuzz,
Who do you think is skum?
If they flip skum - who do you think is skum?

[Cuzz]

The fact that scola has been gunning for Didds and not Jimmmm today is a massive red flag.

Again, there are a bunch of edge case possibilities but the absolute most reasonable way to look at things today is that it's most likely that exactly one of scola and Jimmmm is scum, and exactly one of EFHW and faust is scum. But none of them really seem to be pushing the case on their counterpart, except faust I think (though I think he didn't say who precisely he is ready to vote for but I'm assuming it's EFHW), which is the way to actually maximize the chance of town winning. So I have to think this is mostly scum being overly cautious and trying not to look too jumpy, with any town among them putting too much stock into weird coincidences at the expense of a near-scum-result.

This is an annoyingly well said argument

it's a regularly well said argument!

apologies if this is a dupe. like I said - wife weekend this last few days, I have been doing my best but I am little spotty on individual detail posts.

I meant you could have just left off the "annoyingly" part lol

[Cuzz]

Hey Cuzz,
Who do you think is skum?
If they flip skum - who do you think is skum?

I am like 83% certain scola is scum. I am 95% certain one of faust and EFHW is scum, leaning 63-32 towards EFHW. faust has just been super townie all game. he probably is good enough to pull it off as scum but it just seems less likely. you have been even more townie to the point where it's not really worth considering until we're down to the last scum.

Then there's Jimmmmm and Didds. Jimmmmm has given me scummy vibes a lot of the game, sort of like he's trying to emulate faust's play but in a more antagonistic way. My earlier argument for scola works for Jimmmmm as well kinda, like why is Jimmmmm not pushing scola? But I think the way the results shake out it should seem slightly more plausible for scola to be town from town!Jimmmmm's perspective than vice versa, so it's less of a slam dunk. I think a Jimmmmm/scola scumteam is just pretty unlikely--it would have been weird to coordinate their claims to basically conflict and mark one of them almost certainly as scum, unless one of them screwed up their planned claim and didn't notice the conflict until it was too late, or they're just drunk on WIFOM. So POE leans towards Didds at the end, but I don't have a great handle there.

[Swowl]

The fact that scola has been gunning for Didds and not Jimmmm today is a massive red flag.

Again, there are a bunch of edge case possibilities but the absolute most reasonable way to look at things today is that it's most likely that exactly one of scola and Jimmmm is scum, and exactly one of EFHW and faust is scum. But none of them really seem to be pushing the case on their counterpart, except faust I think (though I think he didn't say who precisely he is ready to vote for but I'm assuming it's EFHW), which is the way to actually maximize the chance of town winning. So I have to think this is mostly scum being overly cautious and trying not to look too jumpy, with any town among them putting too much stock into weird coincidences at the expense of a near-scum-result.

This is an annoyingly well said argument

it's a regularly well said argument!

apologies if this is a dupe. like I said - wife weekend this last few days, I have been doing my best but I am little spotty on individual detail posts.

I meant you could have just left off the "annoyingly" part lol

"annoyingly" was because I just said I thought you were skum and then I found that a good point

[Cuzz]

The fact that scola has been gunning for Didds and not Jimmmm today is a massive red flag.

Again, there are a bunch of edge case possibilities but the absolute most reasonable way to look at things today is that it's most likely that exactly one of scola and Jimmmm is scum, and exactly one of EFHW and faust is scum. But none of them really seem to be pushing the case on their counterpart, except faust I think (though I think he didn't say who precisely he is ready to vote for but I'm assuming it's EFHW), which is the way to actually maximize the chance of town winning. So I have to think this is mostly scum being overly cautious and trying not to look too jumpy, with any town among them putting too much stock into weird coincidences at the expense of a near-scum-result.

This is an annoyingly well said argument

it's a regularly well said argument!

apologies if this is a dupe. like I said - wife weekend this last few days, I have been doing my best but I am little spotty on individual detail posts.

I meant you could have just left off the "annoyingly" part lol

"annoyingly" was because I just said I thought you were skum and then I found that a good point

I gathered as much, but I'm not and it was!

[Jimmmmm]

What is your pasta read right now at this moment?

Mmm leaning scum, but it's still like, everyone and their dog thinks he's scummy so what's the deal with his partners?

I'm in the process of trying to make sense of his claim if he is scum. I'm about to have lunch and stuff so will probably get back to that in a couple of hours.

Do you think pasta and didds could both be skum?

Yeah it doesn't seem that likely.

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmmm has given me scummy vibes a lot of the game, sort of like he's trying to emulate faust's play but in a more antagonistic way.

Trying to emulate faust's (or anyone's) play sounds stressful. Given that faust has criticised my play, I don't think I'm doing a very good job of it.

[Swowl]

What is your pasta read right now at this moment?

Mmm leaning scum, but it's still like, everyone and their dog thinks he's scummy so what's the deal with his partners?

I'm in the process of trying to make sense of his claim if he is scum. I'm about to have lunch and stuff so will probably get back to that in a couple of hours.

Do you think pasta and didds could both be skum?

Yeah it doesn't seem that likely.

Can you come up with any scenario at all in which it makes sense?

[Jimmmmm]

I mean, it would have to be that they planned for Didds to bus scola all game. That could fit with scola planning to claim a PR and Didds pivoting to "My reads suck".

[Swowl]

I mean, it would have to be that they planned for Didds to bus scola all game. That could fit with scola planning to claim a PR and Didds pivoting to "My reads suck".

So you think it is possible that WCD and Pasta, as the 1 and 2 claim out the gate, knowing we have only had one other PR flip this whole game... you think that they could back to back claim the way they did as skum?

[Jimmmmm]

I wouldn't really be inclined to label any scum decision as impossible. I have no idea what kind of position they were in to predict how a massclaim would go or the risks associated with any particular claim at any particular time. That said, I take your point that it seems unlikely. Especially since it's not one of them making the point.

[Swowl]

I wouldn't really be inclined to label any scum decision as impossible. I have no idea what kind of position they were in to predict how a massclaim would go or the risks associated with any particular claim at any particular time. That said, I take your point that it seems unlikely. Especially since it's not one of them making the point.

so, can you give me an actual potential situation in which they claim that way and then end up being skum together. I am accepting crazy theories at this time.

[Jimmmmm]

Let me go find my tinfoil hat.

[Swowl]

Let me go find my tinfoil hat.

lol to be clear I am not like "demanding it". if you can't find it, that's all good. I would just like you to take a second before this day ends and let me know if there is something you can think of please.

[Jimmmmm]

7 alive. Obviously 3 scum, 4 Town. joth also in the picture overnight.

Maybe scum have some sort of investigative role. Maybe it's a modified Rolecop so Bombs appear as VTs. 2 Nights had happened, and maybe the 2 investigated Townies are still alive so they know 2 VT/Bombs or 1 and 1 Watcher. They'll get joth's flip and a third result, but presumably only one of them will get that info. Maybe it's scola. At the start of the Day, 2 of them have a result on 2 of the 4 Townies, and 1 on 3 of the 4.

The idea is that there are relatively few non-Bomb PRs, and scum knows this but Town doesn't. The plan is to create a 1v1, with either scola or Didds on one side. Either they know my role, or they know it's some kind of tracking role since they have a Ninja. If they win the 1v1, they win the game. Otherwise, Town will assume that they caught the one scum among the claimed active roles, and look among the claimed VTs and Bombs for the remaining.

scola as expected is first in the claim order. He opens his net by naming 3 active roles and saying he used them every Night. He wants to be able to contradict me, but doesn't know if there'll be a contradiction between Didds and me. scola is pushed for more claiming. Maybe this was expected, but he can't fullclaim, so he lists my name among the people he targeted, knowing there'll be some way to contradict my claim.

Didds claims Tracker, maybe unsure whether I'm a Tracker or Watcher. Her results are safe from being contradicted by anyone else since she knows Swowl and faust (if Town) don't have active roles.

When I make my claim, nothing about it contradicts Didds', so scola completes the plan by contradicting my claim. From there they intend that either I'll be exiled or it will be assumed that Didds and I are both legit.

[Jimmmmm]

I guess the obvious objection to this is that the jury's out on whether the 1v1 actually worked. They must have had at least some idea that Nights 2 and 3 would be in question, and those happen to be the 2 Nights with the contradictions. Maybe at this point it's being left to Town to determine whether those specific blocks are likely. Or maybe they're just okay with it if it gets people thinking scola's Town.

[Swowl]

Alright, here would be the VCA. I know most of us don't take a lot of stock in it, but it pretty much dictates the majority of my decisions, so I always have it running. Note - I am colored green in all of this because it is from my notes - do with that what you will.

Vote Count 1.2
mcmcsalot (3): Jimmmmm, faust, shraeye
infanthief (3): joth, Robz888, scolapasta
scolapasta (1): Didds
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
shraeye (1): Swowl
Robz888 (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (2): mcmcsalot, infangthief

- Alright, the above is the first semblance of wagons. Not much worth discussing, just there it is.
OK this is where we get into Day 1 for the first time. From 1.2 to 1.3...
- Didds jumps onto Town Robz from Pasta (no wagon)
- MCMC is town and moves to Fang (wagon 4)
- Swowl votes for MCMC
- faust votes Robz (town) from MCMC (town) ((ties MCMC and Robz at 3)
- Swowl votes Shraeye

Vote Count 1.3
infangthief (4): joth, Robz888, scolapasta, mcmcsalot
Robz888 (3): Awaclus, Didds, faust
mcmcsalot (2): Jimmmmm, shraeye
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
scolapasta (1): infangthief
shraeye (1): Swowl

Then...
- Jimm moves from Town MCMC to Town Shraeye
- Didds moves from Town Robz to Town Shraeye
- Town Joth votes to Town Robz from Fang/Efoo


That brings us to 1.4

Vote Count 1.4
infangthief (3): Robz888, scolapasta, mcmcsalot
shraeye (3): Swowl, Jimmmmm, Didds
Robz888 (3): Awaclus, faust, joth
mcmcsalot (1): shraeye
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
scolapasta (1): infangthief

Okie dokie. So this is actually a really interesting point in Day 1 here above at 1.4. We have a 3 way tie, 2 of them are known town. 3 people voting for the known town are not known. 1 person unknown (pasta) is voting for the unkown wagon (efang)... and what happens next?

- Pasta moves with the reason faust gives them that efang hinted at a PR to Shraeye
 OK break for important info - This is where EFang says "I intend on moving to robz at some point but" I don't want to right now. Issue is they could of gone shraeye or robz as skum here. They chose not to. That is weird. I wanna say towny.
Then both faust and WCD take this logic of consolidations and go essentially ok "you would prefer Robz v Pasta or something?" bet - and they both vote pasta
- Didds votes pasta from Shraeye
- faust votes pasta from Robz

That all gets us to this fun spot
Vote Count 1.5:
shraeye (3): Swowl, Jimmmmm, scolapasta
scolapasta (3): infangthief, Didds, faust
Robz888 (2): Awaclus, joth
infangthief (2): Robz888, mcmcsalot
mcmcsalot (1): shraeye
Awaclus (1): Cuzz

The important thing to take away from this is that Shraeye (given pasta and Jimm likely are not skum together now) could of easily gone off. Pasta, is just 100% unknown (meaning that almost 100% one of efang, didds, faust is skum here) (or I guess pasta is skum and the team is exactly Jimmm, Pasta Cuzz - but that doesn't make sense).
Whatever - the point is, we know that Robz is the one that goes... how do we get there?

Robz goes to Scola - taking fang off the table.
Scola claims PR
Robz moves from Scola to Shraeye

That puts us here, right before pasta moves:

shraeye (4): Swowl, Jimmmmm, scolapasta, Robz888
scolapasta (3): infangthief, Didds, faust
Robz888 (2): Awaclus, joth
infangthief (1): mcmcsalot
mcmcsalot (1): shraeye
Awaclus (1): Cuzz

OK then Pasta moves to Robz - That leaves the wagon, again, to just be all unkown fang, didds, faust on pasta. No one here known. Shraeye already has 4 on them. why move to Robz here? Could be town move... or it could be giving his skum mates an opp to get off of his wagon when they could not go for shraeye, but then they tie up the Robz wagon. Let's watch....

Updating as I go, only one move, but this is where we are at here for clarity:

Vote Count 1.6
shraeye (3): Swowl, Jimmmmm, Robz888
scolapasta (3): infangthief, Didds, faust
Robz888 (3): Awaclus, joth, scolapasta
infangthief (1): mcmcsalot
mcmcsalot (1): shraeye
Awaclus (1): Cuzz


Okie dokie - this is where the fun starts. We have 1 hour left until Deadline.

- Fang votes Robz from Pasta - that right there is a vote. To be noted, if Efang is town, it is for sure the correct play rn, but still to be mentioned, As they were voting for pasta themselves, and chose to follow them to Robz over going to the other wagon of Shraeye.
- WCD leaves pasta after the claim for Robz (Robz L-2)
- MCMC leaves EFANG to Shraeye

that gets us here:

Robz888 (5): Awaclus, joth, scolapasta, infangthief, Didds
shraeye (4): Swowl, Jimmmmm, Robz888, Mcmc
scolapasta (1):  faust
mcmcsalot (1): Shraeye
Awaclus (1): Cuzz

so at this point skum has won the day. the only wagons that have any chance of going off are the Robz or Shraeye wagons. And the wagon that has been avoided/dismantled is the pasta wagon. I know I said earlier I wasn't going to go at pasta today anymore, but this is a seriously bad color for pasta. Its' a train a thought, so let me finish the other days VCAs... but yeah - this is pretty much there were all town wagons all day and then there was this one wagon with some unknowns on it... it picked up traction.. they claimed and then everyone bailed. Just ahhhh... I am trying so hard here but just ahhh

The last thing that happens is that Cuzz comes in to vote Robz. This essentially solidifies the Robz exile. The only people off are faust (asleep and known to be asleep) and Shraeye (who is not going to vote themselves). IDK... that doesn't really matter I guess. They could of pushed the flip of coin on Shraeye and gone there, that is about the only towny thing I can say about their play day 1. Which is something tbf.


Wow these take longer to put into html than I remembered. The take away from Day 1 is the Pasta Wagon and the movement around it. Go at it. I will have Day 2 and 3 either later tonight/early tomorrow.

Please don't pick random ass shit out and derail the convo - if you have something important I have missed, call it out - but also I have been tracking this since day 1 so I am pretty sure the info is in the pasta wagon here.

[faust]

At this point I'm ready to vote, but I don't want to vote just before going to sleep, just in case.

Let me know if you have good reasons for holding off.

I feel like that is just you saying you wanna vote efoo?

Did you read my argument on why you and efoo should be removed from todays pool?

Probably at some point, but it didn't stick with me. I can see how from a town's perspective exiling among EFHW/me isn't the best bet though.

[faust]

faust - did your PR factor into your push for no exile?

Not anymore than if I had been a VT, I don't think.

[Swowl]

7 alive. Obviously 3 scum, 4 Town. joth also in the picture overnight.

Maybe scum have some sort of investigative role. Maybe it's a modified Rolecop so Bombs appear as VTs. 2 Nights had happened, and maybe the 2 investigated Townies are still alive so they know 2 VT/Bombs or 1 and 1 Watcher. They'll get joth's flip and a third result, but presumably only one of them will get that info. Maybe it's scola. At the start of the Day, 2 of them have a result on 2 of the 4 Townies, and 1 on 3 of the 4.

The idea is that there are relatively few non-Bomb PRs, and scum knows this but Town doesn't. The plan is to create a 1v1, with either scola or Didds on one side. Either they know my role, or they know it's some kind of tracking role since they have a Ninja. If they win the 1v1, they win the game. Otherwise, Town will assume that they caught the one scum among the claimed active roles, and look among the claimed VTs and Bombs for the remaining.

scola as expected is first in the claim order. He opens his net by naming 3 active roles and saying he used them every Night. He wants to be able to contradict me, but doesn't know if there'll be a contradiction between Didds and me. scola is pushed for more claiming. Maybe this was expected, but he can't fullclaim, so he lists my name among the people he targeted, knowing there'll be some way to contradict my claim.

Didds claims Tracker, maybe unsure whether I'm a Tracker or Watcher. Her results are safe from being contradicted by anyone else since she knows Swowl and faust (if Town) don't have active roles.

When I make my claim, nothing about it contradicts Didds', so scola completes the plan by contradicting my claim. From there they intend that either I'll be exiled or it will be assumed that Didds and I are both legit.

Alright, I can' complain... I asked for the hat.

so you are saying they have a role cop. The role cop guesses were really bad (except they don't know that because Bombs show up as VT also)... so they avoided VT results... kept shooting outside of that.

I mean again, I asked for it so whatever... but you don't see how a Skum Role Cop that gets the same result for VTs as Bomb is unfair here?
That is just saying "check player A" "player A is VT" ok let's just never fucking kill player A - we know they are not a PR and there is a chance they are the bomb.. so...like right?

That being said I appreciate your train of thought.

[faust]

Yeah... I think it is [1 bomb, Cuzz, and idk between the rest] But I just think Cuzz is the right call today right now.

You know, this is pretty much where I land. Given how the claims shook out, I can't really bring myself to see more than one scum among {scola, Didds, Jimmmmm}. I strongly believe there's only 1 Bomb, and of course for me that means EFHW is scum.

Cuzz is a good alternative, but unfortunately it's still possible that Swowl is scum. I didn't find time yet to do a proper Swowl reread, and would rather do so with the benefit of knowing a scum flip.