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[faust]

So right now, the vote count is like so:

infangthief (3): joth, Didds, shraeye
shraeye (3): Swowl, Jimmmmm, Cuzz
Jimmmmm (1): faust
Didds (1): infangthief
joth (1): scolapasta

We can be pretty sure that fang will vote shraeye for self-preservation, so that's like a virtual X-1.

I see that Jimmmmm is not getting much traction today. Guess I'll have to do some rereads to figure out again where we are.

[faust]

This is a relevant point to start some analysis. Swowl has just started a wagon on shraeye on D1 while the major wagon is on fang:

Vote Count 1.3

infangthief (4): joth, Robz888, scolapasta, mcmcsalot
Robz888 (3): Awaclus, Didds, faust
mcmcsalot (2): Jimmmmm, shraeye
Awaclus (1): Cuzz
scolapasta (1): infangthief
shraeye (1): Swowl
Not Voting (0):
With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to exile. Day 1 ends July 29, 2024, 08:00:00 pm

So the fang wagon consists of two town, scola and joth. This is on the face of it quite interesting; if this were an all-town wagon on town, it would surely attract scum, but it never gets any bigger than this. It's pretty safe to assume that there's scum in {fang, joth, scola}.

From here, Jimmmmm and Didds move onto the new wagon with momentum, shraeye. This could be an attempt to save a partner. Both of them are already on counter-wagons that have stalled out a bit. On the other hand, if fang is town, then scum don't really want to start a counterwagon on scumpartner!shraeye.

Between that time and now, we have quite a large number of people who are just happy to hang out on a leading fang wagon: joth, scola, Didds, shraeye. For me, that limits the pool of potential partners a lot. (Yes, yes, there could be bussing, etc. It's not hard science.)

[faust]

to be continued, later. Unfortuantely, I have to go for a couple hours. I'll be back later and able to do at least some more analysis.

[shraeye]

That’s it, really. My reads are crap so I’m not doing that. My criteria is based on forward momentum among the out-group.

So your reads are bad and thus you're voting in the out-group, which is based on your reads?

Didds is working really hard on having enough reason to vote for almost anyone...there isn't very much firm.  It's probably some spotlight-effect for me, but the firmest stance I feel Didds has taken so far is "shraeye is kinda scummy"; but she really hasn't even pushed my wagon along at all I feel.  The other thing Didds is most memorable for this game is following faust.

Didds is definitely one of my top scumreads right now; mostly spurred on by some cant-sleep-brain-keeps-moving energy I had last night.

[shraeye]

Didds, you responded to this question from Jimmm:

Oh, you mean, you don't use finding someone Towny as your measure for them being Town?

Please could you also respond to the questions Jimmm asked just before it, which I think may be harder to answer. It's a longish post, but here's the link:

This post, paired with the sequence before it definitely gives off Didds/fang scum-pair energy.  It's true that they're both voting for one another right now (or were at some point, my internal timeline is not entirely in the present), but I still get that scum-pair feeling

[shraeye]

Shraeye, why didn't you hammer?

after your intent post, there was some time, IIRC.

I wanted to see who would react to that, and what the reactions were.  As scum, I 100% would have just hammered and sorted it out later.

Regardless of scola's alignment?

Are you talking about the hammer or the stating intent?  I felt he was acting enough like I imagined an under-prepared-for-heat scum would with a fakeclaim to be willing to hammer.  I definitely was willing to hammer, but wanted to further my reads/certainty and gain more info about the people on/off his wagon in the case that I did hammer.  So I stated and waited.  What happened next gave me super strong scum-vibes from Awaclus; I was happy with how my moves played out, voted for scola and hoped.

But then we got the Awaclus flip, so I realized that it was not Awaclus jumping at an excuse to derail his partner's wagon.  So that's where I am at now.


On the flipside, people were making the argument that stating intent is a super scummy way for scum-shraeye to buy cover while trying to exile PRscola.  To these people I said, scum-shraeye would not have bothered buying cover; so that argument is already coming from the assumption that I was scum and scola was town.

[jotheonah]

That’s it, really. My reads are crap so I’m not doing that. My criteria is based on forward momentum among the out-group.

So your reads are bad and thus you're voting in the out-group, which is based on your reads?

Didds is working really hard on having enough reason to vote for almost anyone...there isn't very much firm.  It's probably some spotlight-effect for me, but the firmest stance I feel Didds has taken so far is "shraeye is kinda scummy"; but she really hasn't even pushed my wagon along at all I feel.  The other thing Didds is most memorable for this game is following faust.

Didds is definitely one of my top scumreads right now; mostly spurred on by some cant-sleep-brain-keeps-moving energy I had last night.

yeah I am slowly coming around to the possibility that Didds may not be towncore material this game.

[WestCoastDidds]

That’s it, really. My reads are crap so I’m not doing that. My criteria is based on forward momentum among the out-group.

So your reads are bad and thus you're voting in the out-group, which is based on your reads?

Didds is working really hard on having enough reason to vote for almost anyone...there isn't very much firm.  It's probably some spotlight-effect for me, but the firmest stance I feel Didds has taken so far is "shraeye is kinda scummy"; but she really hasn't even pushed my wagon along at all I feel.  The other thing Didds is most memorable for this game is following faust.

Didds is definitely one of my top scumreads right now; mostly spurred on by some cant-sleep-brain-keeps-moving energy I had last night.

No, my firmest stance was on Scola being scummy on D1. After that, I’m lost

[WestCoastDidds]

That’s it, really. My reads are crap so I’m not doing that. My criteria is based on forward momentum among the out-group.

So your reads are bad and thus you're voting in the out-group, which is based on your reads?

Didds is working really hard on having enough reason to vote for almost anyone...there isn't very much firm.  It's probably some spotlight-effect for me, but the firmest stance I feel Didds has taken so far is "shraeye is kinda scummy"; but she really hasn't even pushed my wagon along at all I feel.  The other thing Didds is most memorable for this game is following faust.

Didds is definitely one of my top scumreads right now; mostly spurred on by some cant-sleep-brain-keeps-moving energy I had last night.

yeah I am slowly coming around to the possibility that Didds may not be towncore material this game.

My towncore is really the only thing I feel sure about at all

[WestCoastDidds]

And the only folks who have been voting for me so far, other than Swowl’s vote to get my attention, are not inside it.

[infangthief]

Didds, you responded to this question from Jimmm:

Oh, you mean, you don't use finding someone Towny as your measure for them being Town?

Please could you also respond to the questions Jimmm asked just before it, which I think may be harder to answer. It's a longish post, but here's the link:

This post, paired with the sequence before it definitely gives off Didds/fang scum-pair energy.  It's true that they're both voting for one another right now (or were at some point, my internal timeline is not entirely in the present), but I still get that scum-pair feeling

Didds/fang??
I pushed Didds to answer Jimmm's questions here because they were pointing out inconsistencies in Didds' narrative. She had conveniently skipped those questions. But it really needed calling out.
And Jimmm has followed up on it now too.

During Day 3, Didds' stated reasons for voting for me changed from:

• There is a chance Scola is town so that makes it more likely fang is scum, regardless of his towniness; to
• She was fairly neutral towards me D2, but reread during N2 looking for whether I was driving the game forward or not, where "not" => maybe scum.

Jimmm has now called out that she was clearly not "fairly neutral" towards me on D2. I hope by chasing those particular question I helped to prevent letting Didds get away from this heat.

[infangthief]

Didds, I don't think I agree with your momentum criteria. But anyway. Would you like to apply it to Cuzz? Or does Cuzz get a free pass on that count because of lack of posts?

[jotheonah]

I'm annoyed we haven't heard more from scolapasta today. It seems they're only interested in posting when there's pressure on them and then they disappear when they're safe.

[WestCoastDidds]

Didds, I don't think I agree with your momentum criteria. But anyway. Would you like to apply it to Cuzz? Or does Cuzz get a free pass on that count because of lack of posts?

You don’t have to agree with my criteria. I’m not arguing that’s it’s useful to anyone but me.

I would 100% vote for Cuzz if there was any consolidation there at all. He hasn’t done anything to move the game forward or anything at all really. I haven’t ever played with him at all, though, so I’m deferring to anyone who has.

[WestCoastDidds]

I'm annoyed we haven't heard more from scolapasta today. It seems they're only interested in posting when there's pressure on them and then they disappear when they're safe.

Extremely agree

[infangthief]

And the only folks who have been voting for me so far, other than Swowl’s vote to get my attention, are not inside it.

To get your attention? Why? How?
Have you been skipping over posts from people in your town core, so Swowl needed to vote in order to get your attention?

By the way, I've just done a quick search. Only 2 people have voted for you this game. Swowl, which apparently doesn't count because he is in your town core. And me.

I'll go and reread that Swowl vote.

[WestCoastDidds]

Didds, I don't think I agree with your momentum criteria. But anyway. Would you like to apply it to Cuzz? Or does Cuzz get a free pass on that count because of lack of posts?

You don’t have to agree with my criteria. I’m not arguing that’s it’s useful to anyone but me.

I would 100% vote for Cuzz if there was any consolidation there at all. He hasn’t done anything to move the game forward or anything at all really. I haven’t ever played with him at all, though, so I’m deferring to anyone who has.

To be more clear, when I feel sure about something I make arguments (see D1 post about pasta lurking as scum). You won’t have to try to extract them or do any mental gymnastics to get there. I’m not making any arguments right now. I am confident in Swowl and Joth, and I have only grown more convinced of that confidence. faust is in the next person in, largely based on their reads of him. Everyone else is less clear to me. I don’t have any arguments to advance about anyone and trying to get me to do so is fruitless because I don’t have strong feelings about you, Jimmmm, Shraeye, or cuz. Pasta is in a weird liminal space for the time being.

[WestCoastDidds]

And the only folks who have been voting for me so far, other than Swowl’s vote to get my attention, are not inside it.

To get your attention? Why? How?
Have you been skipping over posts from people in your town core, so Swowl needed to vote in order to get your attention?

By the way, I've just done a quick search. Only 2 people have voted for you this game. Swowl, which apparently doesn't count because he is in your town core. And me.

I'll go and reread that Swowl vote.

More importantly, reread the ones where he unvotes

[faust]

The other thing Didds is most memorable for this game is following faust.

But not onto Jimmmmm, sadly.

[faust]

Vote Count 2.4

scolapasta (5): faust, Awaclus, infangthief, Cuzz, joth
No Exile (2): Didds, Jimmmmm
joth (1): scolapasta
Cuzz (1): shraeye

Not Voting (1): Swowl

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile. Day 2 ends August 05, 2024, 08:00:00 pm. That is in about 5 hours.

I wanted to cross-reference the D2 scola wagon with the D1 and D3 infangthief ones. Interestingly, the only intersection here is joth. And to a lesser extent shraeye, but I think his announcement of intent to hammer is, if anything, more proof that he's partners with scola than it is that scola is town.

For me, the conclusion here is that scola and fang are not both town, a sentiment I landed on earlier already, but that has congealed since.

[faust]

I've skimmed through shraeye's posts. He sure likes to hang out on wagons that go nowhere and do nothing to push these along. That was mcmc on D1 and Cuzz on D2. Only today it seems he made up his mind that being on a wagon is good actually.

The intent to hammer on scola is also there. I think that's where scum!shraeye just goes regardless of scola's alignment.

[faust]

And the Didds suspicion right now is just the most convenient thing. It's where his opposing wagoneered, infangthief, is voting. So if shraeye can get that to take off, it could replace him as the leading alternative to fang.

It's not convincing. Didds, the person who has been hanging out on the fang wagon all day, is suddenly fang's scumpartner?

I guess this is what I talked myself into.

Vote: shraeye

X-1

[faust]

I'll be around for like, an hour or so now, hearing additional arguments. Then I'll be off.

[jotheonah]

Would it be helpful to the time shifting for me to hammer? Because I'm down.

[jotheonah]

I'd still prefer fang of course