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[faust]

Because presumably we would have an investigative role. Also, scum might run into Gladiator Bombs.

Why would that be more presumable than having vigs, roleblockers or doctors, and why are investigative roles relevant in that direction? It's harder to investigate scum with more players alive.

It's hardest to investigate sucm when you're dead.

[faust]

We might of course not have investigation. But we certainly have Gladiator Bombs.

[faust]

It's also worth noting that scum is required to act:

8. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without an exile or nightkill, town wins.

[faust]

Maybe I should clarify that my advocating for no exile is also reads-based. I think scola and fang are both pretty scummy, but if town they are also likely to be PRs.

[Awaclus]

Because presumably we would have an investigative role. Also, scum might run into Gladiator Bombs.

Why would that be more presumable than having vigs, roleblockers or doctors, and why are investigative roles relevant in that direction? It's harder to investigate scum with more players alive.

It's hardest to investigate sucm when you're dead.

Sure? I don't see how delaying our next exile is going to make our investigative PRs more alive.

We might of course not have investigation. But we certainly have Gladiator Bombs.

Is the argument here that if we don't exile today, we won't accidentally exile a bomb?

[Awaclus]

Like, I'm actually not seeing this perspective at all. I think it would be productive if you explained it without skipping as many of the steps in your thought process, they might be obvious to you but they aren't to me.

[faust]

Like, I'm actually not seeing this perspective at all. I think it would be productive if you explained it without skipping as many of the steps in your thought process, they might be obvious to you but they aren't to me.

I can. First of all let's set some parameters. You said before that in a pure vanilla game, it is best to no exile with an even number as soon as possible. Yet the argument you made in response to joth seems to apply similarly also to a pure vanilla game. Do you still agree that in pure vanilla, no exile is good?

[scolapasta]

Checking in for the day - only semi surprised I'm still alive. That's cool though.

Trying to decide whether exile or no exile makes sense. I do like the idea of trying to consolidate on what we do sooner than deadline, so we shift it from Monday. Am leaning towards no exile - though I want to ask Awaclus about something he wrote)

[scolapasta]

It seems to me, you're arguing for not no exile, is that correct?

We effectively don't get an extra day out of it, since no exile means we don't get to do anything this day. What we do get out of it is that the towniest townie that otherwise would have been alive at any given time during days will be dead instead, which makes scum a higher % of players alive, which increases the likelihood of hitting one of them every time we exile someone.

Woudln't this be argument for no exile, though?

Meanwhile, the scummiest player that otherwise would have been dead at any given time during nights will be alive instead, which probably roughly speaking makes VTs and bombs a higher % of townies alive, which increases the likelihood of scum hitting one of them instead of PRs every time they NK someone.

Not sure I follow why more VTs and bombs here?

[faust]

I think I misread Awaclus' argument before. Ok, I think we are still agreed about the pure vanilla case. I think the problem is this bit:

Having extra nights is bad because scum always has more powerful night roles than town unless the setup is stupid

I just fundamentally disagree. Setups with PRs always have a higher scum-to-town ratio than pure vanilla setups. Why? Because the night actions for town are stronger relative to the night actions for scum, so it has to be balanced by making scum more powerful during the Day (by giving them more players).

But for me, this implies quite clearly that if no exile can already be good in a pure vanilla setup, then it will be even better in a setup with PRs.

[faust]

This is the basic idea. Now onto the concrete situation at hand.

In this setup, there is a real threat of bombs for scum. If all they know is that someone has a PR, but not which one, then they will hesitate to kill there. This could have been a factor that protected town!scola tonight (and similarly town!fang). But from an analysis perspective, a reduced PR/no-PR claim is unsatisfying for town: On one hand, you cannot catch a fakeclaimee in a lie this way, and on the other, if we exile someone without ever knowing what PR they are, we may well lose important information on what night actions they performed.

Thus we are in a bind: from a scumhunting perspective, fullclaims are desirable, but for creating the optimal position for town at night, we don't want them.

A no exile today allows us to keep claimed (and unclaimed) PRs in a useful limbo state for the night, and at the same time, we are not sacrificing too much because we don't need the fullclaims today (which would be the case, I would argue, if we wanted to maximise the odds of exiling scum today).

[Awaclus]

Like, I'm actually not seeing this perspective at all. I think it would be productive if you explained it without skipping as many of the steps in your thought process, they might be obvious to you but they aren't to me.

I can. First of all let's set some parameters. You said before that in a pure vanilla game, it is best to no exile with an even number as soon as possible. Yet the argument you made in response to joth seems to apply similarly also to a pure vanilla game. Do you still agree that in pure vanilla, no exile is good?

Yes. In this post in response to joth (which I assume you're talking about), I agree with joth that assuming one NK per night, it is good to no exile immediately. I just thought that he made the benefits sound both larger and different in kind than they are.

[Awaclus]

It seems to me, you're arguing for not no exile, is that correct?

That is correct.

We effectively don't get an extra day out of it, since no exile means we don't get to do anything this day. What we do get out of it is that the towniest townie that otherwise would have been alive at any given time during days will be dead instead, which makes scum a higher % of players alive, which increases the likelihood of hitting one of them every time we exile someone.

Woudln't this be argument for no exile, though?

That is also correct. The point is that this benefit, which is fairly subtle in the early game, is the argument for no exile under normal circumstances.

Meanwhile, the scummiest player that otherwise would have been dead at any given time during nights will be alive instead, which probably roughly speaking makes VTs and bombs a higher % of townies alive, which increases the likelihood of scum hitting one of them instead of PRs every time they NK someone.

Not sure I follow why more VTs and bombs here?

Because we're probably less likely to exile PRs. That isn't exactly foolproof though, and sometimes we hopefully exile scum which doesn't change town's ratio of PRs to VTs/bombs, which is why it probably roughly speaking does that instead of just doing that.

[Awaclus]

I just fundamentally disagree. Setups with PRs always have a higher scum-to-town ratio than pure vanilla setups. Why? Because the night actions for town are stronger relative to the night actions for scum, so it has to be balanced by making scum more powerful during the Day (by giving them more players).

Sure. That doesn't make scum more powerful than town during the day or town more powerful than scum during the night though, it just makes it somewhat less skewed in the other direction.

But for me, this implies quite clearly that if no exile can already be good in a pure vanilla setup, then it will be even better in a setup with PRs.

Oh right, because we'll effectively get investigative PR results earlier while getting rid of an extra townie whose being alive isn't going to give us another day phase. I feel like I get the argument now, but it still doesn't seem as important as making sure we use our day phases efficiently even if we turn out to have nights with an even number of deaths.

[Swowl]

This is the basic idea. Now onto the concrete situation at hand.

In this setup, there is a real threat of bombs for scum. If all they know is that someone has a PR, but not which one, then they will hesitate to kill there. This could have been a factor that protected town!scola tonight (and similarly town!fang). But from an analysis perspective, a reduced PR/no-PR claim is unsatisfying for town: On one hand, you cannot catch a fakeclaimee in a lie this way, and on the other, if we exile someone without ever knowing what PR they are, we may well lose important information on what night actions they performed.

Thus we are in a bind: from a scumhunting perspective, fullclaims are desirable, but for creating the optimal position for town at night, we don't want them.

A no exile today allows us to keep claimed (and unclaimed) PRs in a useful limbo state for the night, and at the same time, we are not sacrificing too much because we don't need the fullclaims today (which would be the case, I would argue, if we wanted to maximise the odds of exiling scum today).

OK I am catching up but I am gonna start here.
This is 100% correct and it was what I was talking about yesterday when scola claimed.

I had not considered the idea of not exiling today because of the even number, which could as said, buy us an additional day. The issue I have with no exile is that we do have PRs in this game, so if we get a good doctor hit, or a good vig hit (or a bad vig hit) or anything like that, we will put ourselves right back at even and will have cost ourselves an exile.

[faust]

Oh right, because we'll effectively get investigative PR results earlier while getting rid of an extra townie whose being alive isn't going to give us another day phase. I feel like I get the argument now, but it still doesn't seem as important as making sure we use our day phases efficiently even if we turn out to have nights with an even number of deaths.

I can see that, but I guess it all then depends on how likely we think we are to get an even numer of deaths. A discussion of this seems like a uniquely bad idea though.

[Swowl]

There are also exiles that will flip skum. I know we don't know which ones, but some could be very telling. I know I am bias here, but for an example, if Shraeye is skum, that is a shit ton of info we get there. The same goes for others on a lesser level of info.

The problem I have here is the above combined with the kill opportunity for skum. If we noex and skum hits like a bomb, or a vt, or a non investigative PR.... Then yeah we are in a pretty good spot. But is that spot better than the info of pushing wagons today? And then if they an investigative role... that would be really bad.

I guess my overall point is - when someone claims a PR they are essentially 3 options in this game
1) A Bomb
2) Another PR
3) Skum

from skum pov all that does is tell them they are either a PR or a Bomb. So they could pick off Vts easier... and I am gonna stop typing because I think I just talked myself into noex...

[Swowl]

although if we go no exile today... we are just going to be in the same bucket tomorrow but with one more kill to analyze. Where as if we exile we have the chance to hit skum, and also at a minimum we have 2 flips to look at.

I guess my problem with it is that if we implement this strategy then at some point we would want to do a mass claim to get all the info that we have "saved" out in the open. But to do that, bombs would be known. It actually doesn't technically need to be mass claim for that issue to apply to an extent.

[Swowl]

I think shraeye has been accused of "acti-lurking"? I think that is a kind of vacuous statement. shraeye has been playing pretty close to the chest, but it's clear that he has opinions. Yes, some posts are just jokes, but I can't fault anyone for having fun. Maybe I'm biased because I really enjoy pretty much all of shraeye's posts.

What opinions are you referring to?

I've collated everything from shraeye's 23 Day 1 posts that could possibly be considered an opinion. (They're copy-pasted and some of them modified for clarity. * means it came after shraeye was called out.)

Jokes
Words are important. Gotta find the best words.
Like this. We all know Jimmmm is fluffy. Famously fluffy in fact.  Perfect word, thanks Jimmmm.
drunk mafia is best mafia.
This is basically mafia in a nutshell.  Back up feelings with analysis, lean heavy into the confirmation bias on those times I have miraculously been right. *

Etiquette
Did you just underline "absurd" from his post? (implying it shouldn't be done)
I am not supposed to do the strong underlining jimm

Theory/Meta
Who is the #1 most/least content-full player right now? (implies it matters in theory; potentially implies that it was relevant to the game at that point)
I do not recall PRs going silently down with the ship ever. If you're argument is that they should, then I possibly agree but it's irrelevant
I see no downsides from swinging momentum from [fang] to [Robz] , especially when [fang] has likely been considered by all players and [Robz] is relatively less-spotlighted thus far. *

Self-analysis/defense
But cagey was not as perfect for for shraeye.
Flippant. Mostly stubborn (trying to improve this), and only accidentally helpful (no plans to change).
I mean, I'm biased. But I still totally disagree with this ("acti-lurker") take. *

Neutral
It is, unfortunately, perfectly Swowl-neutral in my mind
It is, unfortunately, perfectly faust-neutral in my mind

Opinions on words/actions taken by players
I don't consider mcmc to be the most active player, lots of back and forth that gets his post-count up sure...but that's not "active" in my book.
the conclusion you are really giving is "I know I called this out initially and brought extra attention to it, but it's a dangerous topic to discuss so nobody should say anything"??!!

Unexplained reads
I'm willing to give up my fourth-from-top scum read... It's scolapasta. (maybe belongs under "jokes")
Vote: mcmc Because of the thing
I'm still down for mcmc. Still because of the thing. *

Reads with something vaguely approaching an explanation
Didds is too middle of the road for me to move from mcmc.  Although I am liking her breakdown of scola...could move there *

So if we filter down to non-neutral opinions about this game and the other players in it, we get:
scola is the 4th scummyest player
mcmc's post count is boosted
mcmc was a bit hypocritical
mcmc is scummy
Didds is middle of the road
Didds lurker case on scola was good

Which of these opinions are helpful?

OK I towned you yesterday, but this is just lazy. I literally posted this on day 1.

[Swowl]

I'm on board with no exile.

And then scola full claims tomorrow if he's alive.

This was my original plan - but let me now ask. How does this help if pasta claims bomb?

[Swowl]

K well that’s an annoying nk.

That's less self-evident than I think you're implying

? I had robz as town pretty hard and it puts up the situation where it makes me want to exile you more for the wagon info if your skum.

[jotheonah]

I'm on board with no exile.

And then scola full claims tomorrow if he's alive.

This was my original plan - but let me now ask. How does this help if pasta claims bomb?

There’s a lot of possibilities. Might not be best to game them out ahead of time.

[Jimmmmm]

Up to now Robz was one of my more town reads (only because I have been scum with him and he seemed different than my recollection of that game). Would scum Robz really try so blatantly to draw out a PR?

Was this a rhetorical question (ie implying that scum Robz wouldn't do that)?

Also happy to move to Robz (sorry, since you just moved away from me - but that's actually something would want to do quickly for cred, no?)

Vote: Robz

This seems like a casual move to someone who was one of your more Town reads. Was Robz moving away from you part of the reason, or just not a reason not to? In your mind, what did Robz do to counteract his play being different than you remember as scum?

[scolapasta]

Robz moving away from me so quickly seemed scummy - it's something I've done at least as scum, trying to get credit for moving away quickly from a claimed PR. I don't recall if there was something else that had pinged me at the time. (on 2nd hand I shoud've stayed on shraye, but it was late in day and I was at dinner at a friend's so not fully "there")

[Swowl]

Robz moving away from me so quickly seemed scummy - it's something I've done at least as scum, trying to get credit for moving away quickly from a claimed PR. I don't recall if there was something else that had pinged me at the time. (on 2nd hand I shoud've stayed on shraye, but it was late in day and I was at dinner at a friend's so not fully "there")

have I asked you yet why you claimed so early?