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[WestCoastDidds]

faust, the reason we should consider no exile is to get to an odd number? And give the PRs another night?

[faust]

I always do the two core thing. But since it’s often just me it doesn’t always work. My top town now is Swowl. You and faust are still pretty close. And I guess Scola?

What has scola done that makes you think he's town?

[faust]

faust, the reason we should consider no exile is to get to an odd number? And give the PRs another night?

Yes, pretty much.

[WestCoastDidds]

I always do the two core thing. But since it’s often just me it doesn’t always work. My top town now is Swowl. You and faust are still pretty close. And I guess Scola?

What has scola done that makes you think he's town?

The claim from D1. But I’m still wary thus the question

[WestCoastDidds]

faust, the reason we should consider no exile is to get to an odd number? And give the PRs another night?

Yes, pretty much.

The day will end on a Monday at 8:00 again, so it also presents an opportunity to shift that some.

[faust]

faust, the reason we should consider no exile is to get to an odd number? And give the PRs another night?

Yes, pretty much.

The day will end on a Monday at 8:00 again, so it also presents an opportunity to shift that some.

Well, this isn't really specific to a No Exile though. If 6 people agreed on an exile we could change the deadline same as if 6 people agreed on no exile.

[jotheonah]

I always do the two core thing. But since it’s often just me it doesn’t always work. My top town now is Swowl. You and faust are still pretty close. And I guess Scola?

What has scola done that makes you think he's town?

The claim from D1. But I’m still wary thus the question

The claim seemed extremely scummy to me.

This is why I don't love auto-saving PR claims because it's like, how long do we let it go on for? Especially with a vague claim?

[Awaclus]

IIRC in a purely vanilla game, no exiling asap when you have an even number of players is good, but it would be super lame if we no exiled and then there was a night with 0 or 2 deaths because of PR shenanigans.

This is true but I think given that we still have all of our PRs, it can be worth it. That means that no exile benefits us more than it would in pure vanilla.

Why would that be the case?

[faust]

IIRC in a purely vanilla game, no exiling asap when you have an even number of players is good, but it would be super lame if we no exiled and then there was a night with 0 or 2 deaths because of PR shenanigans.

This is true but I think given that we still have all of our PRs, it can be worth it. That means that no exile benefits us more than it would in pure vanilla.

Why would that be the case?

Because presumably we would have an investigative role. Also, scum might run into Gladiator Bombs.

More concretely for this game, I feel like finding a good exile today requires us to hear some more concrete claims from fang and/or scola, and that will render any role powers they may have less useful.

[Cuzz]

K well that’s an annoying nk.

I have an early day so I will have to get to most my thought tomorrow - but everyone feel free to tear apart the fact that I think pasta needs to 100% claim something now.

I am not 100% sure what I think of this plan but proposing it seems townie to me.

Well that could have gone better.

 Sure, but you know... Like reads and whatnot. 

My hot take is jimmm bad, faust good.

Can you justify these hottest of takes?

IIRC in a purely vanilla game, no exiling asap when you have an even number of players is good, but it would be super lame if we no exiled and then there was a night with 0 or 2 deaths because of PR shenanigans.

Why is having an even number of players bad? I truly forget so much of how this game works.

vote: faust

why?

Does anyone want to tell us what the thing was?

same question

And which opinions were you referring to that counter that claim?

He was able to put together a reads list on which scola came 4th, and opinions on mcmc.

I don't really buy this. Were we supposed to really believe that shraeye made a full ranked list and named the literal 4th person on the list? He was being pretty jokey and casual at the time and I took this to basically just be naming a somewhat arbitrary person with a neutral read.

Is it bad that I just want to get back on the fang train?

I'm a little surprised no one's come after me yet. I mean, I kind of single-handedly derailed the shraeye wagon and started/restarted the Robz wagon. If I weren't me and I were re-reading the day, I would conclude that shraeye and I were scum partners and I very deftly deflected the exile. I mean, I even defended shraeye without defending shraeye to leave myself room to get back on a shraeye wagon later with my whole "shraeye seems like a day one misexile waiting to happen" post.

Of course I know that none of that is true but -- like am I really coming off that towny? I was really ready to start my day on the defense I'm confused as to why I'm not.

This feels pretty townie from joth here.

shraeye, where were you at the end of D1?

I purposefully ignored everybody's scheduling posts earlier in day1, was not interested in postponing discussion until last minute. The last minute scrambles never seem to provide any more insightful reads than the earlier parts of the day, and they're annoying to me.

So end of day was not marked on my calendar or in my mind. I got busy and it slipped right by me.

This feels pretty scummy from shraeye here and I'm not buying faust's defense of shraeye.

IIRC in a purely vanilla game, no exiling asap when you have an even number of players is good, but it would be super lame if we no exiled and then there was a night with 0 or 2 deaths because of PR shenanigans.

This is true but I think given that we still have all of our PRs, it can be worth it. That means that no exile benefits us more than it would in pure vanilla.

Why would that be the case?

Still feeling absolutely no reason not to scumread Awaclus since yesterday so yeah Vote: Awaclus

[infangthief]

Cuzz you gonna make a vote bud?

Ok yeah Vote: Robz

Cuzz why did you vote for Robz here?

[jotheonah]

So the parity argument is, assuming one NK per night, the game would progress

Day 2, 10 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 3, 8 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 4, 6 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 5, 4 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 6, 2 players, scum wins

If we NE, it goes

Day 2, 10 players -> NK -> Day 3, 9 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 4, 7 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 5, 5 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 6, 3 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 7, 1 player

So we get an extra day out of it, basically. And in this case we have an extra night for PRs to do stuff.

[jotheonah]

I'm on board with no exile.

And then scola full claims tomorrow if he's alive.

[Cuzz]

Cuzz you gonna make a vote bud?

Ok yeah Vote: Robz

Cuzz why did you vote for Robz here?

I explained my read somewhat here. He was the scummiest to me of the viable wagons at the time, but it was close to a coinflip between him and shraeye.

I realize I'm way behind and deadline is soon so if someone (town only pls) wants to be so kind as to give a hint of where to focus my attention I'd much appreciate.

I would take insight on any/all of
MCMC
Robz
Shraeye

All three have struck me as possibly scummy at some point or another. Mcmc seems to kinda be driving things, and scum sometimes wants to try for that, though it's risky because if he's town then he's one of the most active and likely most helpful, so I lean away from him. Robz and schraeye have both said some oddly cryptic things and had some weird interactions that seem off to me.

[WestCoastDidds]

I'm on board with no exile.

And then scola full claims tomorrow if he's alive.

I agree with this plan

[WestCoastDidds]

I’m going to let everyone get here first but then I’ll vote no exile

[Awaclus]

So the parity argument is, assuming one NK per night, the game would progress

Day 2, 10 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 3, 8 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 4, 6 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 5, 4 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 6, 2 players, scum wins

If we NE, it goes

Day 2, 10 players -> NK -> Day 3, 9 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 4, 7 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 5, 5 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 6, 3 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 7, 1 player

So we get an extra day out of it, basically. And in this case we have an extra night for PRs to do stuff.

We effectively don't get an extra day out of it, since no exile means we don't get to do anything this day. What we do get out of it is that the towniest townie that otherwise would have been alive at any given time during days will be dead instead, which makes scum a higher % of players alive, which increases the likelihood of hitting one of them every time we exile someone.

Meanwhile, the scummiest player that otherwise would have been dead at any given time during nights will be alive instead, which probably roughly speaking makes VTs and bombs a higher % of townies alive, which increases the likelihood of scum hitting one of them instead of PRs every time they NK someone.

Having extra nights is bad because scum always has more powerful night roles than town unless the setup is stupid, but that's not going to happen either; the same number of nights will happen but each of them happens a bit earlier relative to the (meaningful) days.

[Awaclus]

Because presumably we would have an investigative role. Also, scum might run into Gladiator Bombs.

Why would that be more presumable than having vigs, roleblockers or doctors, and why are investigative roles relevant in that direction? It's harder to investigate scum with more players alive.

More concretely for this game, I feel like finding a good exile today requires us to hear some more concrete claims from fang and/or scola, and that will render any role powers they may have less useful.

If we collectively don't feel like we have a good exile towards the end of the day, that might be a decent reason to go for the no exile, but I think it's way too early to be concluding that.

[Awaclus]

I’m going to let everyone get here first but then I’ll vote no exile

Please at least try to use this day for scumhunting.

[Awaclus]

I also don't support setting plans in stone about when we are going to pressure claimed PRs into full claiming.

[jotheonah]

I’m going to let everyone get here first but then I’ll vote no exile

Please at least try to use this day for scumhunting.

Why though? if we are going to No exile, any scumhunting we do today just gives scum useful information they can apply to their night actions without any benefit to town. If we are going to no exile, the logical thing is to do it right away.

[Cuzz]

I’m going to let everyone get here first but then I’ll vote no exile

Please at least try to use this day for scumhunting.

Why though? if we are going to No exile, any scumhunting we do today just gives scum useful information they can apply to their night actions without any benefit to town. If we are going to no exile, the logical thing is to do it right away.

I think the point is that if we no-exile right away then the "extra day" that we get in your analysis was entirely wasted and of no value.

[Cuzz]

Unvote Awaclus is making too much sense at the moment

[jotheonah]

So the parity argument is, assuming one NK per night, the game would progress

Day 2, 10 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 3, 8 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 4, 6 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 5, 4 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 6, 2 players, scum wins

If we NE, it goes

Day 2, 10 players -> NK -> Day 3, 9 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 4, 7 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 5, 5 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 6, 3 players -> Exile + NK -> Day 7, 1 player

So we get an extra day out of it, basically. And in this case we have an extra night for PRs to do stuff.

We effectively don't get an extra day out of it, since no exile means we don't get to do anything this day. What we do get out of it is that the towniest townie that otherwise would have been alive at any given time during days will be dead instead, which makes scum a higher % of players alive, which increases the likelihood of hitting one of them every time we exile someone.

Meanwhile, the scummiest player that otherwise would have been dead at any given time during nights will be alive instead, which probably roughly speaking makes VTs and bombs a higher % of townies alive, which increases the likelihood of scum hitting one of them instead of PRs every time they NK someone.

Having extra nights is bad because scum always has more powerful night roles than town unless the setup is stupid, but that's not going to happen either; the same number of nights will happen but each of them happens a bit earlier relative to the (meaningful) days.

Thanks, that's a better explanation.

I think the easiest way for a non-mathy person to see the value is to look first at the last link in the chain that I posted. A 3-person LyLo is way preferable to a 4-person LyLo. It's the difference between having to convince one person to vote for one other person and having to choose between three people and then convince two other people to vote for your choice.

I guess if that were the only consideration we could just wait until then and no exile on the 4-person day. But the theory is that the reasoning for preferring a 3-person LyLo to a 4-person one should also extend back to every other day, including this one. Which would you rather do, try to find one of, let's say 3, scum in a group of 10 or look for one of three scum in a group of nine, with the added information of who they decided to kill with their second shot.

And then add to that that if we have a cop and they survive the night they can give us an extra night's worth of results whenever they claim, it all starts to look like a pretty reasonable move.

The case against, though, is that we don't know if there could be multiple nightkills. In fact, I think the mod sort of went out of his way to let us know multiple nightkills were, if not confirmed possible than at least not confirmed impossible. And imagine if we no exile and get two nightkills, thus leaving us at an even number again. What do we do then?

The other argument against is that the exile is town's weapon against scum, so no exiling is basically choosing to give scum an extra shot at us. Sound as the math and strategy is, it's hard to ignore the basic reality that if we have a gun we should probably fire it if we want to win the firefight.

[Awaclus]

Why though? if we are going to No exile, any scumhunting we do today just gives scum useful information they can apply to their night actions without any benefit to town. If we are going to no exile, the logical thing is to do it right away.

That's true in theory, but there are problems in practice:

1) IRL time during day phases is a resource that has non-zero value for town and no exiling right away wastes like 90 hours of it.
2) We don't know that we are going to no exile. I don't understand faust's investigative PR based argument for no exiling, so I'm at least going to wait for an explanation before I support no exiling on that basis, but aside from that argument, I think the other factors would make it seem pretty clearly better to exile today. Removing the towniest player from POE is a very subtle benefit early on.
3) "Let's no exile because we don't have a good exile / let's not scumhunt because we're going to no exile" is a self-fulfilling prophecy because we aren't going to have a good exile if we don't scumhunt.