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[jotheonah]

Well, after a reread of LL, I don't see a whole lot there.  He basically re-read Joseph, said it seems to point to me, and had stuck with voting for me ever since.  He expressed suspicion of Awaclus "before he did the reread".  He then also voted EFHW to make sure we got an exile and he posted when the thread was locked.

If I was scum (SM), I just couldn't justify to myself to take out someone who points so directly at me.  And if I was traitor (I believe his death was before recruitment, right?) - I would hope/assume the SM would be smart enough to bus me for town-cred than to try and recruit me and waste a kill.  But I'm neither of those.  So either someone else had a different reason to kill LL (maybe he was one of the more town-read?)... or maybe someone realized it would be pretty easy to use a reread of LL to point to exiling me next.

I fully believe he LL got axed because he posted in the thread. It seems to me like that was something only town would do. No reread of him necessary.

I’m also not sure how your time line is messed up. It makes me wonder if it’s purposeful or just too hard to keep all of the (your) whacking and recruiting straight.
D1 no exile
N1 Joseph whacked
D2 EFHW exiled
N2 no nk (presumably traitor recruited)
D3 no exile to get to an odd number
N3 LL whacked
D4 is today

So you think scum no-killed? Why would they do that?

[jotheonah]

Awaclus has some good arguments, but they aren't correct.

Damn. I've got to admit to my mistake here: this defense from EFHW was weird, I realized it was weird, and instead of thinking through the reasons why that might have been like I should have, I just kept pushing the case in hopes of getting more info out of it and getting more clarity to the situation that way. But I guess at least the situation is pretty clear now!

This is the post that made me vote Awaclus yesterday. It feels calculated, like something scum had lots of time to come up with that would strike the right balance of apologetic and "no way I could have known". But idk, he's been so towny other than this.

[jotheonah]

The LaLight kill (if indeed it is such) sort of points to scum being one person who's had a lot of suspicion on them and one who's had very little.

Because if scum is like gkrieg-math, why not kill MiX or Didds or Awa, who all seem to be kind of aligned in that direction? But if the scum is, say, Awaclus-gkreig, then better to keep the strong town allies in play.

But even if Awaclus is scum, which I seem to be talking myself around to, I still would rather get the partner today, on the basis that it seems easier to get the consensus, especially because I 100% believe Awaclus will bus without a second thought.

Does scum!Awaclus vote his partner right out of the gate in a game where his partner only needs 4 votes to be exiled? Feels a bit too gutsy.

[MiX]

I haven't had time for a reread and may not.

Town is small enough now that a towncore approach appeals.

Right now I'm strongly townreading MiX and Didds. Awaclus too, though I'm a bit more wary there. That leaves scum somewhere in scola, gkrieg, or mathdude. I definitely get the sense that gkrieg and mathdude are both people who've had multiple wagons on them that didn't stick, which normally would be scummy, but given the nature of this game it may not be (since there was effectively 1 scum the first couple days).

I think it's a little odd that the day opening post didn't actual identify the night's victim. Can we get confirmation that LaLight was killed by scum rather than modkilled?

If this PoE is right then we win, yay. Also, the original post for opening the day said that LaLight died.

So you think scum no-killed? Why would they do that?

We know they didn't kill.

The LaLight kill (if indeed it is such) sort of points to scum being one person who's had a lot of suspicion on them and one who's had very little.

Because if scum is like gkrieg-math, why not kill MiX or Didds or Awa, who all seem to be kind of aligned in that direction? But if the scum is, say, Awaclus-gkreig, then better to keep the strong town allies in play.

But even if Awaclus is scum, which I seem to be talking myself around to, I still would rather get the partner today, on the basis that it seems easier to get the consensus, especially because I 100% believe Awaclus will bus without a second thought.

Does scum!Awaclus vote his partner right out of the gate in a game where his partner only needs 4 votes to be exiled? Feels a bit too gutsy.

LaLight dying because of his posting in the thread when it's locked is a real possibility. Alternatively, LaLight was voting math, right? So if you want to save math you need to kill every townie, because every townie's gunning for math.

Overall I think the scum team is exactly scola SM and math traitor.

[MiX]

Vote: scola

[Awaclus]

Consider one case - what if we all posted a scum-to-chum list?  Yes, scum would then have all that info and might make a better night choice.  But then their night choice becomes WIFOM, depending on whether they kill a strong town-read, or someone who's tunneling one of them, or someone who's tunneling a townie to frame them, or something else.  But on the other hand, we would know exactly what LL's scum-to-chum list is today.  We would even be able to compare yesterday's lists to how any of them might change today.

If we give scum info, there are two possible ways for it to go:

• either it benefits scum more than it benefits us, in which case scum uses the info
• or it doesn't, in which case scum ignores the info and nothing changes

It's literally not possible for town to ever get any benefit out of giving scum more info, unless it's a game with a third party, in which case it's at least theoretically possible for it to be mutually beneficial for town and scum. In a two-party game, the best case scenario is that nothing changes.

[Awaclus]

In a purely vanilla game, the numbers did definitely agree with a "no exile".  But whether it should have happened yesterday or today, I'm now starting to question the idea.

Yesterday would have been harder to exile a scum.  We would have needed 5 of 8 votes... which is 5 of the 6 townies.  Today, we need 4 of 7 votes (which is 4 of 5 townies).  We still need all town except one... but we (each individual townie) needs to get 3 others to agree with us in voting today, where yesterday we needed 4 others to agree.  So by this perspective, getting back to an odd number quickly does seem helpful.

But what if we had prolonged the day yesterday, rather than cutting it short?  And what if we actually did try to get an exile off yesterday, rather than jumping straight to "no exile"?  Bounce ideas back and forth.  Try a wagon or two.  See where people are voting.  See if some people are eager to jump on any wagon or hesitant.  And if we didn't get anywhere, then near the actual end of day, we could swing back to "no exile".  Then today, we would have all kinds more information to analyze.  But we're still sticking (at least mildly, at the moment) to the initial D1 thoughts of "let's vote out mathdude".

All this being said, I don't think any of this points back to yesterday to say a "quick-hammer" of no exile is scummy.  I think it was general consensus that we want to get back to an odd number of players in a vanilla game.  (In hind sight now, and especially for any future vanilla games, I think this is definitely something to consider though - don't just quickly go "no exile"!)

Not only is an odd number favorable to town, we get to make the decision with more info, since we now have the info that LaLight was town and got NK'd. Town having more info is strictly beneficial for town (just like scum having more info is strictly beneficial for scum). In any future vanilla game with an even number of players alive, there should be a no exile ASAP.

[Awaclus]

Awaclus has some good arguments, but they aren't correct.

Damn. I've got to admit to my mistake here: this defense from EFHW was weird, I realized it was weird, and instead of thinking through the reasons why that might have been like I should have, I just kept pushing the case in hopes of getting more info out of it and getting more clarity to the situation that way. But I guess at least the situation is pretty clear now!

This is the post that made me vote Awaclus yesterday. It feels calculated, like something scum had lots of time to come up with that would strike the right balance of apologetic and "no way I could have known". But idk, he's been so towny other than this.

It was calculated for sure, I am trying to win the game after all. I didn't have to spend a lot of time on it though; the fact that it was true made the process a lot easier.

[WestCoastDidds]

Well, after a reread of LL, I don't see a whole lot there.  He basically re-read Joseph, said it seems to point to me, and had stuck with voting for me ever since.  He expressed suspicion of Awaclus "before he did the reread".  He then also voted EFHW to make sure we got an exile and he posted when the thread was locked.

If I was scum (SM), I just couldn't justify to myself to take out someone who points so directly at me.  And if I was traitor (I believe his death was before recruitment, right?) - I would hope/assume the SM would be smart enough to bus me for town-cred than to try and recruit me and waste a kill.  But I'm neither of those.  So either someone else had a different reason to kill LL (maybe he was one of the more town-read?)... or maybe someone realized it would be pretty easy to use a reread of LL to point to exiling me next.

I fully believe he LL got axed because he posted in the thread. It seems to me like that was something only town would do. No reread of him necessary.

I’m also not sure how your time line is messed up. It makes me wonder if it’s purposeful or just too hard to keep all of the (your) whacking and recruiting straight.
D1 no exile
N1 Joseph whacked
D2 EFHW exiled
N2 no nk (presumably traitor recruited)
D3 no exile to get to an odd number
N3 LL whacked
D4 is today

So you think scum no-killed? Why would they do that?

I don’t understand. No one died N2 and there were no PRs to prevent it. I assumed that meant the traitor had been recruited. Am I missing something?

[mathdude]

Well, after a reread of LL, I don't see a whole lot there.  He basically re-read Joseph, said it seems to point to me, and had stuck with voting for me ever since.  He expressed suspicion of Awaclus "before he did the reread".  He then also voted EFHW to make sure we got an exile and he posted when the thread was locked.

If I was scum (SM), I just couldn't justify to myself to take out someone who points so directly at me.  And if I was traitor (I believe his death was before recruitment, right?) - I would hope/assume the SM would be smart enough to bus me for town-cred than to try and recruit me and waste a kill.  But I'm neither of those.  So either someone else had a different reason to kill LL (maybe he was one of the more town-read?)... or maybe someone realized it would be pretty easy to use a reread of LL to point to exiling me next.

I fully believe he LL got axed because he posted in the thread. It seems to me like that was something only town would do. No reread of him necessary.

I’m also not sure how your time line is messed up. It makes me wonder if it’s purposeful or just too hard to keep all of the (your) whacking and recruiting straight.
D1 no exile
N1 Joseph whacked
D2 EFHW exiled
N2 no nk (presumably traitor recruited)
D3 no exile to get to an odd number
N3 LL whacked
D4 is today

You're right... I did get the order mixed up.  So for the LL kill (for now, assuming it was scum-killed), there was presumably a team deciding on that kill.  Anyone who has played scum with me before would know I wouldn't kill someone who was gunning for me like that.  I'd try to kill someone that would point elsewhere.

[mathdude]

Well, after a reread of LL, I don't see a whole lot there.  He basically re-read Joseph, said it seems to point to me, and had stuck with voting for me ever since.  He expressed suspicion of Awaclus "before he did the reread".  He then also voted EFHW to make sure we got an exile and he posted when the thread was locked.

If I was scum (SM), I just couldn't justify to myself to take out someone who points so directly at me.  And if I was traitor (I believe his death was before recruitment, right?) - I would hope/assume the SM would be smart enough to bus me for town-cred than to try and recruit me and waste a kill.  But I'm neither of those.  So either someone else had a different reason to kill LL (maybe he was one of the more town-read?)... or maybe someone realized it would be pretty easy to use a reread of LL to point to exiling me next.

I fully believe he LL got axed because he posted in the thread. It seems to me like that was something only town would do. No reread of him necessary.

I’m also not sure how your time line is messed up. It makes me wonder if it’s purposeful or just too hard to keep all of the (your) whacking and recruiting straight.
D1 no exile
N1 Joseph whacked
D2 EFHW exiled
N2 no nk (presumably traitor recruited)
D3 no exile to get to an odd number
N3 LL whacked
D4 is today

So you think scum no-killed? Why would they do that?

I have assumed until this point that scum killed LL.  But looking back, it doesn't actually say that.  We do need mod confirmation.

I think the most likely explanation if LL was mod-killed is that scum missed the kill due to inactivity.  Joth and gk?  Or maybe there wasn't even a recruitment the night before?  Just gk as SM?

[mathdude]

If we give scum info, there are two possible ways for it to go:

• either it benefits scum more than it benefits us, in which case scum uses the info
• or it doesn't, in which case scum ignores the info and nothing changes

It's literally not possible for town to ever get any benefit out of giving scum more info, unless it's a game with a third party, in which case it's at least theoretically possible for it to be mutually beneficial for town and scum. In a two-party game, the best case scenario is that nothing changes.

Not only is an odd number favorable to town, we get to make the decision with more info, since we now have the info that LaLight was town and got NK'd. Town having more info is strictly beneficial for town (just like scum having more info is strictly beneficial for scum). In any future vanilla game with an even number of players alive, there should be a no exile ASAP.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.  You're treating information like single points of data that don't change over time.  What might benefit scum at one moment (depending on what they do with the info) may benefit town more later, and scum won't be aware of that because they don't know how others will act in the future.

[MiX]

How about we stop thinking about how Swowl never makes everything clear and start thinking in the correct world...

Mathdude. A readlist? Please? Anything.

[Awaclus]

I don’t understand. No one died N2 and there were no PRs to prevent it. I assumed that meant the traitor had been recruited. Am I missing something?

Kind of, and so is joth. Unless I'm mistaken, you're claiming that scum killed LaLight because posting in the locked thread was such an obvious town tell, and joth thinks you're claiming that Swowl killed LaLight because posting in the locked thread was against the rules, in which case there would have been no kill by scum.

[Awaclus]

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.

No we don't, I'm objectively correct and you're objectively wrong. If scum can't correctly estimate how the info will make others act in the future, there is no reason to expect our estimation to be correct either, since we're making it with less info than scum is making theirs with.

[MiX]

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.

No we don't, I'm objectively correct and you're objectively wrong. If scum can't correctly estimate how the info will make others act in the future, there is no reason to expect our estimation to be correct either, since we're making it with less info than scum is making theirs with.

Okay yes giving scum information is bad but also helping town go through thought processes can help them get better reads. Basically, not all information is worse than it not being given.

[jotheonah]

I know why no one died night 2. But if LaLight was modkilled that means no one died night 3 also. And there's no reasonable explanation for that.

[Awaclus]

I know why no one died night 2. But if LaLight was modkilled that means no one died night 3 also. And there's no reasonable explanation for that.

The reasonable explanation is that nobody is claiming LaLight was modkilled.

[mathdude]

How about we stop thinking about how Swowl never makes everything clear and start thinking in the correct world...

Mathdude. A readlist? Please? Anything.

As I said, it makes more sense to wait until closer to the deadline.  Can you give me an argument otherwise?

Theory is cool how about you make a scum to chum list so we can look at it after we exile you.

My list alone will probably be pretty useless.  I admit I have very weak reads this game.  On top of that, I know I will have a slightly biased scum-read towards those who target me the most (I always do).

I assume it would be better to do this closer to the deadline, rather than this early in the day.  Let's let gk and joth actually contribute to this day - otherwise their places in the list will be quite meaningless (if they were even put in the list).  But if I am up for exile, I trust someone would post an intent-to-hammer, and give time for me to post such a list, rather than a quick-hammer (which would be very scummy).

Did you read that and ignore it?  Do you just post without reading responses directly to your posts/requests?

[mathdude]

I know why no one died night 2. But if LaLight was modkilled that means no one died night 3 also. And there's no reasonable explanation for that.

The reasonable explanation is that nobody is claiming LaLight was modkilled.

Good - we can agree on some things.  I don't see any indication that LL was mod-killed either.

[Awaclus]

Okay yes giving scum information is bad but also helping town go through thought processes can help them get better reads. Basically, not all information is worse than it not being given.

The only decision that was made before we got a chance to discuss things again was made by scum. Having better reads during the night is entirely useless for town because there's nothing we can do no matter how good our reads are. In this case, literally all information was worse than it not being given, because the only decision that even could have been affected by that information was scum's.

[gkrieg13]

Ok I'm here and going to catch up today. Sorry for the massive absences.

[gkrieg13]

I guess I misinterpreted your D3 post...

Basically people don't vote no exile when you want a discussion because voting no exile means you don't want a discussion. So by voting no exile I assumed you didn't want a discussion. You even said things like "why wait until tomorrow" and "it's clearly the best vote".

OK - I get that, and it sounds like that's also where Awaclus is coming from. My no exile vote wasn't a "I don't want more discussion", I just wanted to improve our odds for today's exile and saw lots of votes flying by. My "tomorrow" was meant to mean the game's "tomorrow", not real world tomorrow.

But I hear what you and Awaclus are saying. I'm still not sure I agree, but I'll have to meditate on that a little more. The "I want to solve this game" side of me feels I could've used that info to improve my scum reads - and I do stand by my "I don't really think it matters any more who scum NK" argument.

I'm happy to retract my vote for now:

Unvote

Let me ask something else then: how come no one else suggested no exile until I did?

It obviously matters who scum kills. Just the criteria has changed from hunting PRs.

[gkrieg13]

Also I am townlocking Didds for that post. If you have a problem, please present me a bad Didds post.

These are the easiest posts to make as scum for town points. They don't add any reads, and it's unlikely the prods really change the game much in town's favor. Not saying you shouldn't townread Didds, just that you shouldn't do it for that post alone.

[gkrieg13]

Well, after a reread of LL, I don't see a whole lot there.  He basically re-read Joseph, said it seems to point to me, and had stuck with voting for me ever since.  He expressed suspicion of Awaclus "before he did the reread".  He then also voted EFHW to make sure we got an exile and he posted when the thread was locked.

If I was scum (SM), I just couldn't justify to myself to take out someone who points so directly at me.  And if I was traitor (I believe his death was before recruitment, right?) - I would hope/assume the SM would be smart enough to bus me for town-cred than to try and recruit me and waste a kill.  But I'm neither of those.  So either someone else had a different reason to kill LL (maybe he was one of the more town-read?)... or maybe someone realized it would be pretty easy to use a reread of LL to point to exiling me next.

I am pretty sure that rereading almost anyone would point to you. Not sure if it is a great argument.