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Author Topic: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia -- GAME OVER, mafia wins flawlessly  (Read 42636 times)

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mathdude

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #500 on: January 23, 2022, 08:13:45 pm »

Why aren't people looking more at Galzria? He engineered the Swowl exile!

That sounds like a great topic for next D1.  Why aren't people more interested in finishing this day, and actually figuring out if MiX or scola is lying, or if gkrieg was lying and messed with things?

Why don't we just sort of agree on something, and let the day-vig do the kill?  Then we can loop back and see what info we gain there, and then look into Galz in more detail if needed?

Where is everyone?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #501 on: January 23, 2022, 09:28:07 pm »

Busy Sunday! But it doesn’t look like anything has been decided?

The deadline is tomorrow.  I teach in the morning, but I should be able to check in.

Swowl, I’m looking at you to direct the shot. Left to my own devices I’m gonna shoot where I’m voting (Galz).
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Swowl

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #502 on: January 23, 2022, 10:22:23 pm »

Alright so DL is 9AM my time.
It is currently like 7pm my  time. So I will get stuff out tonight as opposed to the morning to be safe.
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real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #503 on: January 23, 2022, 10:29:22 pm »

My problem with Didds shooting is that if exiling is the only way to establish a flip, that kind of puts us in a rough spot.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

EFHW

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #504 on: January 23, 2022, 10:49:02 pm »

My problem with Didds shooting is that if exiling is the only way to establish a flip, that kind of puts us in a rough spot.

I think that is unlikely given that we think the dayvig is there to compensate for a lack of voters. But I also think exile is better if we can manage it, for vca later.

I won't be on at deadline, but will be earlier in the day.
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EFHW

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #505 on: January 23, 2022, 11:01:46 pm »

If we have to do the 1:1, I'm leaning towards MiX for low effort.
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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #506 on: January 24, 2022, 02:42:36 am »

sigh... it seems so lazy to just say shoot galz but I am coming up blank
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real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #507 on: January 24, 2022, 02:54:27 am »

whatever, I have not been phoning this in, been thinking a lot, but ultimately it should be mix, pasta, or galz. 9 person game so there isnt really a hella lot to be gained from VCA but on the off chance we get info out of it those are the best shots. and extremely unfortunately I cannot get over the anti town vibes I am getting from galz this game.

So, if I am choosing the shot it is Galz.

Vote: Galz
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

EFHW

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #508 on: January 24, 2022, 10:02:51 am »

vote count please!

Joth, will you be around to give us quick vote count feedback on the results of our actions?
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scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #509 on: January 24, 2022, 10:26:44 am »

So, does no one else read Galz's post as townie in a way scum would not do?
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Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #510 on: January 24, 2022, 11:03:56 am »

Didds, you MUST shoot me here, and hope you’re still alive for it to count -

If scum has successfully killed 1-N1 & 2-N1 (ie. I didn’t block successfully either night, which they know because I claimed my targets), then we are in MyLo. This is why EFHW is pushing for my Exile so incessantly.

My guess is that between the 1:1 situation, there’s actually a NK’d townie - and the reason scum don’t want to let us exile there is that we’ll either hit scum (bad for them), or exile an already NK’d town (which is the same as no-exile, which leads to ExLo tomorrow with the other side of the 1:1 an easy flip), or we find we can’t exile the NK’d townie and instead get the other side of the 1:1.

Either way, we CANNOT mis-exile here or we lose. Didds, if your PR resets the day, I’ll be dead, but we’ll be ExLo instead of game over.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #511 on: January 24, 2022, 11:06:11 am »

Between MiX & Pasta,

Vote: MiX,

But I’m honestly not sure. I’m mostly sus of his claim not having a modifier - but he claimed late and there would be no reason for him not to include it - unless he had information about how the days can change from Odd to Even and wanted to be able to continue to claim use of his PR.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #512 on: January 24, 2022, 11:08:41 am »

My problem with Didds shooting is that if exiling is the only way to establish a flip, that kind of puts us in a rough spot.

I think that is unlikely given that we think the dayvig is there to compensate for a lack of voters. But I also think exile is better if we can manage it, for vca later.

I won't be on at deadline, but will be earlier in the day.

There is no VCA later if I’m mid-exiled, which I’ve pointed out earlier in the day and you’ve conveniently ignored. The game will be over in a Scum win. Didds 100% needs to shoot and reset the day - either hopefully hitting Scum, or at worst putting us into ExLo instead of MyLo.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #513 on: January 24, 2022, 11:13:54 am »

Can someone remind me again what ExLo and Mylo are? (i.e. what's the difference)
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Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #514 on: January 24, 2022, 11:18:56 am »

Then there's Galz's post to consider. Scum could prefer to exile someone already dead because we wouldn't have time to scramble up a new exile and town wouldn't get a flip. And then it's not one of them. The information about who has been nk'd isn't all that valuable and not a bad trade for a no exile. Finally, trying to avoid some town exiles narrows the focus, making a scum exile more likely.  Galz also doesn't follow up with any implications of his point for scumhunting. This does sound like something scum would consider while looking for a voting strategy, but I doubt it would be at all significant or discernible in their play. This fits right into my belief that Galz is scum..

This is wrong on literally every level.

Bold - Town WOULD effectively get a flip, because they would know that the player in question is town.

Italicized - They would learn this information at the (potential) expense of an Exile, as you say, but that’s not a bad trade for town at all, because it would put us at ExLo tomorrow with another IC along Swowl. Whereas a mis-exile ends the game.

Underlined - You’re right. So scum not advocating for exile within the 1:1 would definitely be making noise about controlling the exile somewhere else to make sure it doesn’t fall on them. Now I wonder who’s been doing that…

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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #515 on: January 24, 2022, 11:22:39 am »

Can someone remind me again what ExLo and Mylo are? (i.e. what's the difference)

MyLo - 6 Alive, 2 scum: (Mis-Exile and Lose) - if you Exile incorrectly you go to Night with 5 players alive, scum kills one and the game is over because scum controls half the town. In the Case of a no Exile with 6, scum kills at night and the game continues with 5 players the following day in…

ExLo - 5 Alive, 2 scum: (Exile or Lose) - You must Exile correctly in ExLo. A No-Exile results in scum shooting and controlling half the town. A mis-exile ends the game as well.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #516 on: January 24, 2022, 11:25:04 am »

In this case:

We started with 9. Assuming I’ve not blocked a NK:

No Exile 1-D1, Scum NK brings us to 8 Alive.
Exile Swowl on 2-D1, scum NK brings us to 6 Alive.

So we’re likely in MyLo.

However, if WCD can shoot me, and it skips night resetting the day, then we’ll replay with 5 Alive in ExLo.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #517 on: January 24, 2022, 11:37:29 am »

My phone is at 11% - throwing it on the charger and taking a quick shower. I think deadline is in 20 minutes?

Didds - if you get here, you need to shoot me. That’s far preferable to a no-exile, as we’ll hopefully get my flip (and if it doesn’t go through, means you’re either lying scum (unlikely in my book - scum!you doesn’t fake claim that), or a previously NK’d townie, which IC’s you for tomorrow).

The best order of things goes:

Didds shoots scum
Scum-Exile
Didds shoots town
No-Exile
Mis-Exile

Anything above the last option either keeps us in MyLo, or at worst moves to us ExLo. Only the last option should end the game.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #518 on: January 24, 2022, 11:38:37 am »

OH, I think I missed that WCD shooting resets the day with no night.

Or at least, that's not how I read "reset:" the day, since we've "reset" the day every day this game (i.e. groundhog's day).

Now have to go back and reread to see we have actually confirmed reset means what you think it means.
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scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #519 on: January 24, 2022, 11:41:29 am »

I guess day resetting without NK is a standard way dayvigs can work?

Because yeah, I definitely did not read it that way.

BUT if it does, I do think WCD clearly should do that to say us from Mylo.

I would vote she shoot gkrieg (or math) instead of Galz, but sounds like she'll listen to swowl. Assuming she logs in in the next 20 minutes.

Would love to see an actual vote count, but I personally have no time for a scolacounta.
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Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #520 on: January 24, 2022, 11:43:17 am »

Answer to how the dayvig works! The kill happens and the day resets.

This is the quote - “Reset” is normally synonymous with “restart”, which is what I took it to mean - although I suppose that could be wrong - In which case shooting me would likely end the game same as exiling me.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #521 on: January 24, 2022, 11:48:34 am »

Answer to how the dayvig works! The kill happens and the day resets.

This is the quote - “Reset” is normally synonymous with “restart”, which is what I took it to mean - although I suppose that could be wrong - In which case shooting me would likely end the game same as exiling me.

I think you're likely right - since I doubt joth would reveal the groundhog's day mechanic that way. (even if we already discovered it).

So I'm definitely ok with WCD shooting.
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scolapasta

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #522 on: January 24, 2022, 11:57:57 am »

How is no one around??? 3 minutes to DL. I don't think there's anything I can do here on my own.
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Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #523 on: January 24, 2022, 11:59:19 am »

How is no one around??? 3 minutes to DL. I don't think there's anything I can do here on my own.

😢
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: BM 34: Groundhog's Day Mafia
« Reply #524 on: January 24, 2022, 11:59:32 am »

Diiiiiiids! Come shoot me!!!!
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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