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Author Topic: M136: Mouse Mafia (GAME OVER - RATS WIN)  (Read 71471 times)

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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #325 on: December 06, 2021, 12:14:07 pm »

Unvote

I agree Didds probably is the best exile, and so we should focus on figuring out where we are actually going to go.

If I wasn't one of the people with vote shenanigans going on, I would be voting for fang.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #326 on: December 06, 2021, 12:15:15 pm »

"I am assuming there are not two mayors"

"then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor"

These 2 statements contradict each other. The 2 mayors should vote on a wagon with 2 votes. Then we immediately rule out the 2 mayor possibility.
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #327 on: December 06, 2021, 12:16:22 pm »

"I am assuming there are not two mayors"

"then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor"

These 2 statements contradict each other. The 2 mayors should vote on a wagon with 2 votes. Then we immediately rule out the 2 mayor possibility.

Personally I give it exactly a 0% chance there are two mayors. That is nonsense. If you insist on starting the test from there to rule it out though, I'm ok with doing that, it just seems unnecessary.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #328 on: December 06, 2021, 12:18:00 pm »

"I am assuming there are not two mayors"

"then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor"

These 2 statements contradict each other. The 2 mayors should vote on a wagon with 2 votes. Then we immediately rule out the 2 mayor possibility.

Personally I give it exactly a 0% chance there are two mayors. That is nonsense. If you insist on starting the test from there to rule it out though, I'm ok with doing that, it just seems unnecessary.

Phrased another way, I think two mayors is equally likely as everyone in the town is either mayor or drunk and only two of us were willing to claim and for some reason everyone else was like yeah those two claims are nearly IC lol
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #329 on: December 06, 2021, 12:18:37 pm »

So when I said "FOR SURE," that is the level of confidence I'm at with that statement.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #330 on: December 06, 2021, 12:19:45 pm »

Hi Dylan,
faust and I had a conversation early in the day from which the conclusion was that 2 drunks was very unlikely, from a game balance perspective. I think this conclusion holds whether the scum team is either 2 or 3.
Haven't gone through the same detail for how likely 2 mayors is, but my gut feel is that it would be unbalanced with a 2-player scum team, but might be fine with a 3-player scum team.

So I wouldn't rule out the 2-mayor scenario, unless we can somehow rule out a 3-scum scenario.

PPE 7!!!
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #331 on: December 06, 2021, 12:26:53 pm »

So, the scummiest of that list are EFHW... <snip>
Why do you think EFHW is scummy this game?
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #332 on: December 06, 2021, 12:27:03 pm »

Hi Dylan,
faust and I had a conversation early in the day from which the conclusion was that 2 drunks was very unlikely, from a game balance perspective. I think this conclusion holds whether the scum team is either 2 or 3.
Haven't gone through the same detail for how likely 2 mayors is, but my gut feel is that it would be unbalanced with a 2-player scum team, but might be fine with a 3-player scum team.

So I wouldn't rule out the 2-mayor scenario, unless we can somehow rule out a 3-scum scenario.

PPE 7!!!

I agree with the 2 drunks is very unlikely in part based on that convo! My objection to two mayors isn't balance based (although there is that factor), it's flavor based. The idea of having two mayors is as absurd as, well, a town of mice with a drunk that thinks they run the town haha.

But really, looking at the setup, it just seems like the mayor and drunk roles were designed specifically to have one of each in the game and introduce these mechanics and converations to the game. It's neat, and maybe us claiming D1 is making it play out very differently than the mod thought it would, but I'm assuming that between the two of us either Joseph and I have the two votes from one of each role or he's scum, which I also think is unlikely based on early conversations about scum fakeclaiming a publicly verifiable role D1. So really, the test basically just needs to be the two of us vote at X-3 to make it X-1 and someone hammers. There's probably a 90+ percent chance that the exile happens there and that's the end of it. If it's important to know which is which later we can test individually, but even if scum tries to mess with it via roleblocking, all that happens is we still don't know if mayor or drunk as opposed to not knowing mayor/drunk or fakeclaiming scum.

ppe 1
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scolapasta

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #333 on: December 06, 2021, 12:30:13 pm »


...

Phase Two: Random other player votes with what *should* be the hammer. If exile happens, there were exactly two votes between Joseph and I, which means we had one mayor and one drunk as expected and we are IC (unless you genuinely think Joseph and I BOTH fakeclaimed, in which case, test one of us individually to make it mathematically 100%). If no exile, go to phase 3.

Phase Three: One more person votes. If the exile happens, one of us (Joseph) lied and the other (me) is drunk. If no exile, we are both drunks, and the wagon is for sure at X-1.

If you don't understand, doubt, or disagree with anything, please be specific with your questions in relation to this, because I've been sick this weekend and it's totally possible I'm just not thinking or typing as clearly as I think I am lol.

ppe 4

Plenty of posts have happened after this one, but my biggest issue is here Phase 2 (and 3). I don't know if we're really set to exile WCD (the current testee) and all this testing talk time is really hurting our focus.

So I'm fine with Phase 1, but it gets us very little info and then we need to regroup and determine who we may actually want to exile. Add in the fact of different time zones, not knowing when exactly mod will post new vote counts, this feels guaranteed to leave us scrambling at the last minute. Which is in the middle of the day for those of us in the US and may be hard to have a lot of time to read / post / vote.

So honestly, I think at this point we need to move past the testing and just try to play like a normal end of D1.

I'm happy with my current vote.
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #334 on: December 06, 2021, 12:42:14 pm »


...

Phase Two: Random other player votes with what *should* be the hammer. If exile happens, there were exactly two votes between Joseph and I, which means we had one mayor and one drunk as expected and we are IC (unless you genuinely think Joseph and I BOTH fakeclaimed, in which case, test one of us individually to make it mathematically 100%). If no exile, go to phase 3.

Phase Three: One more person votes. If the exile happens, one of us (Joseph) lied and the other (me) is drunk. If no exile, we are both drunks, and the wagon is for sure at X-1.

If you don't understand, doubt, or disagree with anything, please be specific with your questions in relation to this, because I've been sick this weekend and it's totally possible I'm just not thinking or typing as clearly as I think I am lol.

ppe 4

Plenty of posts have happened after this one, but my biggest issue is here Phase 2 (and 3). I don't know if we're really set to exile WCD (the current testee) and all this testing talk time is really hurting our focus.

So I'm fine with Phase 1, but it gets us very little info and then we need to regroup and determine who we may actually want to exile. Add in the fact of different time zones, not knowing when exactly mod will post new vote counts, this feels guaranteed to leave us scrambling at the last minute. Which is in the middle of the day for those of us in the US and may be hard to have a lot of time to read / post / vote.

So honestly, I think at this point we need to move past the testing and just try to play like a normal end of D1.

I'm happy with my current vote.

Yeah, it would be better to figure out where we are actually going to exile and then test it. The one thing I hadn't thought about is just how rarely the mod has posted voting updates. We would really need those to happen pretty quickly between each step to not bottleneck us. That said, reiterating what I've said since then, what is likely going to happen is phase 1 nothing happens, one more person votes and that's the hammer.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #335 on: December 06, 2021, 01:05:28 pm »

"I am assuming there are not two mayors"

"then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor"

These 2 statements contradict each other. The 2 mayors should vote on a wagon with 2 votes. Then we immediately rule out the 2 mayor possibility.

Personally I give it exactly a 0% chance there are two mayors. That is nonsense. If you insist on starting the test from there to rule it out though, I'm ok with doing that, it just seems unnecessary.

Phrased another way, I think two mayors is equally likely as everyone in the town is either mayor or drunk and only two of us were willing to claim and for some reason everyone else was like yeah those two claims are nearly IC lol

Then do the test, there is literally zero downside if you are not both mayors.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #336 on: December 06, 2021, 01:07:39 pm »

Math will quote the hammer, by the way, so we don't need him to be active as long as we apply good conditional logic and have 1 person we want to exile.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #337 on: December 06, 2021, 01:49:48 pm »

It seems like having both Dylan and Joseph vote for the same person is entirely pointless.

Did you read my post right above yours?

Yes, but I’m on the subway and can’t get out a piece of paper to figure out if it works.

The fact is, we are bagging as if you are both if now do having your both vote for me will not help us distinguish between who is drunk and who is a mayor. It would be way more informative for all the votes up to x-2 be non-claimants and then to have one of you vote to see if you’re the mayor. If they aren’t, we should assume they are drunk. We could then have one more person vote, and if the exile goes through then the drunk was actually lying scum who has a vote. Having you Joth vote for the same person is not nearly as useful.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #338 on: December 06, 2021, 01:52:16 pm »

It seems like having both Dylan and Joseph vote for the same person is entirely pointless.

Did you read my post right above yours?

Yes, but I’m on the subway and can’t get out a piece of paper to figure out if it works.

The fact is, we are acting as if you are both IC now so having your both vote for me will not help us distinguish between who is drunk and who is a mayor. It would be way more informative for all the votes up to x-2 be non-claimants and then to have one of you vote to see if you’re the mayor. If they aren’t, we should assume they are drunk. We could then have one more person vote, and if the exile goes through then the drunk was actually lying scum who has a vote. Having you both vote for the same person is not nearly as useful.

Sheesh. Apologies. Corrected above
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #339 on: December 06, 2021, 02:06:13 pm »

So, the scummiest of that list are EFHW... <snip>
Why do you think EFHW is scummy this game?

Snipping a much longer list there is way out of context.

Her subsequent play hasn’t been as scummy, but when I wrote that this morning she hadn’t been engaging much.

However, I’m finding you super scummy for digging in with your vote on me with zero reason. Same with gkrieg. I’m also not fond of Mix rushing the conversation to get me exiled to test Dylan and/or Joseph without doing any actual scum hunting. I’m wary of faust acting like an oracle who has some kind of inside information and I’m disappointed that I won’t get to keep playing. At this point, I’m really just kind of over it. No one cares if I’m scum or not. There is no case. Just a desire to test the claim that Joseph made before we had even decided if it was a good idea, and gkrieg, you, and faust have forced Dylan’s hand and de facto decided that  I’m the easiest target. It’s not mean, but it sure isn’t awesome to feel like fodder. We are not even trying to scum hunt. The entire day has been about mayor/drunk. To me, it feels unfair.. why not just use a RNG?  At the very least it’s a waste of time.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #340 on: December 06, 2021, 03:22:09 pm »

EoD's in less than 24 hours, right? Hmm...

Request vote count
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Joseph2302

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #341 on: December 06, 2021, 04:00:35 pm »

EoD's in less than 24 hours, right? Hmm...

Request vote count
And also Request prods where appropriate
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #342 on: December 06, 2021, 04:15:47 pm »

Apologies for the weekend. I am kind of sort of caught up. I like efoo best for now. Back in a few hours.

Plan should happen because we need an exile anyways, and why not do it just to be 100% sure. Like decide on a wagon, then have them follow Dylans plan. No reason NOT to do it that way.


Swowl Count as of this post:
Votes for EFHW: MiX, Joth, Swowl (3)
Votes for fang: EFHW, Scolapasta (2)
votes for MiX: Joseph2302 (1)
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief (4)

not voting: Dylan32, WestCoastDidds,
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Vote: EFHW
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real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

faust

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #343 on: December 06, 2021, 04:40:05 pm »

The fact is, we are bagging as if you are both if now do having your both vote for me will not help us distinguish between who is drunk and who is a mayor.
The point of all this is not to find out who is Drunk and who is Mayor (because arguably that is not information we want to make available to scum). The point is just to test whether someone is lying.
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faust

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #344 on: December 06, 2021, 04:42:29 pm »

However, I’m finding you super scummy for digging in with your vote on me with zero reason. Same with gkrieg. I’m also not fond of Mix rushing the conversation to get me exiled to test Dylan and/or Joseph without doing any actual scum hunting. I’m wary of faust acting like an oracle who has some kind of inside information and I’m disappointed that I won’t get to keep playing. At this point, I’m really just kind of over it. No one cares if I’m scum or not. There is no case. Just a desire to test the claim that Joseph made before we had even decided if it was a good idea, and gkrieg, you, and faust have forced Dylan’s hand and de facto decided that  I’m the easiest target. It’s not mean, but it sure isn’t awesome to feel like fodder. We are not even trying to scum hunt. The entire day has been about mayor/drunk. To me, it feels unfair.. why not just use a RNG?  At the very least it’s a waste of time.
I hear a lot of complaining about how we're not doing any scumhunting and not a lot of scumhunting.

I'm scumhunting, FWIW. I just don't broadcast my results.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #345 on: December 06, 2021, 04:43:06 pm »

As far as offense… meh. I don’t think gkrieg has been helpful, but that could well be OMGUS.

I agree that I have not been that helpful. This is definitely Didds trying to remember me in this game, and being self-aware of what she is doing. Not sure that means anything beyond her just being on vacation.
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #346 on: December 06, 2021, 04:43:52 pm »

I'll go read EFHW and Didds.
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #347 on: December 06, 2021, 04:46:34 pm »

Howdy hey, friends! I’m just checking in. Fang, is that vote a prod or does my inability to figure out what to do with two mayors actually make you think I’m scummy? The case is so compelling and fully developed that I’m not sure how to respond.

I’m spending the day with my sister and my folks in Atlanta, but I’m headed back to Texas tomorrow so I’ll have time to get caught up en route. AND I’m done teaching for the semester (just final exams and entering grades remain) so I should be much more available from tomorrow going forward.

xoxo

This post could read as a deflection. slight scum points for it. Only slight scum points, because it could also just be vacation Didds and it was made in a jokey way.
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scolapasta

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #348 on: December 06, 2021, 04:50:00 pm »

Howdy hey, friends! I’m just checking in. Fang, is that vote a prod or does my inability to figure out what to do with two mayors actually make you think I’m scummy? The case is so compelling and fully developed that I’m not sure how to respond.

I’m spending the day with my sister and my folks in Atlanta, but I’m headed back to Texas tomorrow so I’ll have time to get caught up en route. AND I’m done teaching for the semester (just final exams and entering grades remain) so I should be much more available from tomorrow going forward.

xoxo

This post could read as a deflection. slight scum points for it. Only slight scum points, because it could also just be vacation Didds and it was made in a jokey way.

Yeah, I really wasn't sure how to read sarcasm from Didds before; I can't recall seeing it before.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #349 on: December 06, 2021, 04:51:21 pm »

--big post that I quote a piece of like 4 posts ago--

Rereading this again, I could go either way. I don't remember Didds being a defeatist, but I also don't think it is something that would help her more if she were scum, so I don't think it points to her being scum.
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