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Author Topic: M136: Mouse Mafia (GAME OVER - RATS WIN)  (Read 71419 times)

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EFHW

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #300 on: December 06, 2021, 07:56:51 am »

I'm happy with handing them IC status.

And now I can't help chucking at the picture:
Dylan and Joseph take their seats at the front of the city council. "Right, so here we are, time for a new era. One of us is your Mayor, and one of us is drunk. We're not sure which. But together we will lead you into a new and brighter era for our city. Trust us."
Also, they are both mice.
Hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #301 on: December 06, 2021, 08:02:59 am »

Good morning!!!

I can apologize for lurking. But I’m on vacation so it’s a hollow apology. I’m not really sorry. But that is also because, for me, most of this day has been about the wisdom of claiming and how to figure out who is the mayor and who is the drunk. We all know that those conversations are lost on me. Here’s how I see it…

We had not reached a consensus on claiming when it actually happened, so that was a pointless conversation.

And I have no idea why having both Dylan and Joseph vote/exile the same person (me!) would help us learn anything except that they aren’t both drunk. I don’t understand why that helps us, exactly, but I figure there are folks who know.

I don’t think gkrieg or fang have any sort of real reason they are voting for me, but I assume it’s lack of contribution. Again, vacation, but whatever. So, ugh, okay. faust probably has a reason but I don’t know what it is. Dylan is following through on his testing theory.

I have made some progress in not taking the games personally. Someone needs to get exiled, and it sure seems like no one really cares who it is, as long as it’s not Dylan or Joseph. I don’t feel like there is some sort of case for me to respond to, so defense is irrelevant.

As far as offense… meh. I don’t think gkrieg has been helpful, but that could well be OMGUS. My Swowl detector is pretty well tuned, but it’s too early for a reading. MiX usually reads me better than this, same with faust. I’m always, always suspicious of EFHW.  fang plays do rarely that it’s hard to know… it feels like he’s been playing, but also voting for me for no articulated reason. I believe Dylan more than Joseph, as a result of timing of their claims.  Who am I forgetting? Joth? Oh, Joth! He doesn’t seem scummy to me either. Pasta? I don’t have a ton of impression, there. So, null?

So, the scummiest of that list are EFHW, fang, gkrieg, MiX and faust. Half the game… so, not really helpful. If getting to play means proving your value to the group, I definitely have not earned it. There just hasn’t been enough case making and responding outside of the claims/test the mayors lines on inquiry for me to analyze, and even if there had been, my attention is elsewhere. Le sigh. And so it goes. I’m feeling more resigned than feisty.  It the beginning of the game so a missexile won’t hurt us much, and it feels like the missexile is pretty much unavoidable since collectively we have a terrible record at finding scum D1.

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jotheonah

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #302 on: December 06, 2021, 08:10:13 am »

I guess I should point out that I am gut reading Didds as town and don’t feel that way about EFHW, which I think is the opposite of what Faust is articulating about himself.
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EFHW

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #303 on: December 06, 2021, 09:01:58 am »

Giving Didds a daypass for that post. It goes right to the heart of the matter re this mayor situation.
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faust

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #304 on: December 06, 2021, 09:03:31 am »

It goes right to the heart of the matter re this mayor situation.
What do you mean by this?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #305 on: December 06, 2021, 09:28:23 am »

And you'd rather vote for a lurker than for someone on a "probably scum-driven" wagon?

Didds is much more of a lurker than EFHW...
And I have never said otherwise. However, unlike EFHW, she is also scum.

Hmm, okay. Consider me convinced, but I can't vote for Didds as that might be hammer.
Does that mean people want me to vote now? As it's L-1/L-3 depending on Dylan
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Joseph2302

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #306 on: December 06, 2021, 09:29:44 am »

I can understand the argument for Didds being scum. Though almost certainly, my vote shouldn't matter, unless neither Dylan nor me are drunk?
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #307 on: December 06, 2021, 09:35:49 am »

And you'd rather vote for a lurker than for someone on a "probably scum-driven" wagon?

Didds is much more of a lurker than EFHW...
And I have never said otherwise. However, unlike EFHW, she is also scum.

Hmm, okay. Consider me convinced, but I can't vote for Didds as that might be hammer.
Does that mean people want me to vote now? As it's L-1/L-3 depending on Dylan

No.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #308 on: December 06, 2021, 09:37:33 am »

I can understand the argument for Didds being scum. Though almost certainly, my vote shouldn't matter, unless neither Dylan nor me are drunk?

Your vote matters if one of you us scum.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #309 on: December 06, 2021, 09:53:49 am »

I can understand the argument for Didds being scum. Though almost certainly, my vote shouldn't matter, unless neither Dylan nor me are drunk?

Your vote matters if one of you us scum.
True. I guess it'd be good information for me (as I'm not scum), but not for anyone else
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EFHW

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #310 on: December 06, 2021, 10:13:50 am »

It goes right to the heart of the matter re this mayor situation.
What do you mean by this?
... We had not reached a consensus on claiming when it actually happened, so that was a pointless conversation.

And I have no idea why having both Dylan and Joseph vote/exile the same person (me!) would help us learn anything except that they aren’t both drunk. ...
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #311 on: December 06, 2021, 10:19:28 am »

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
This sounds like you are assuming Joseph is the drunk and you are the mayor.

Sorry, been reading on mobile today and just saw this.

How? ...
First you say the only way a Joseph vote is bad is if he is lying/scum. That means you think he is the drunk. You qualify that by saying you could both be mayors, but you think that is very unlikely. You don't mention the scenario in which you are drunk and he is mayor. I realize that you are talking about bad outcomes, and it would be ok for Joseph to vote in that case (you drunk, him mayor). But all your responses to everything have been very thorough. I am wondering if you forgot about that possibility.
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faust

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #312 on: December 06, 2021, 11:01:50 am »

And you'd rather vote for a lurker than for someone on a "probably scum-driven" wagon?

Didds is much more of a lurker than EFHW...
And I have never said otherwise. However, unlike EFHW, she is also scum.

Hmm, okay. Consider me convinced, but I can't vote for Didds as that might be hammer.
Does that mean people want me to vote now? As it's L-1/L-3 depending on Dylan

No.
Yes.
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faust

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #313 on: December 06, 2021, 11:05:22 am »

It goes right to the heart of the matter re this mayor situation.
What do you mean by this?
... We had not reached a consensus on claiming when it actually happened, so that was a pointless conversation.

And I have no idea why having both Dylan and Joseph vote/exile the same person (me!) would help us learn anything except that they aren’t both drunk. ...
I mean, I know that much, but how does what Didds said there "go to the heart of the matter"?
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #314 on: December 06, 2021, 11:10:22 am »

Hey MiX, can we get your opinion on the Didds wagon?

Your main argument for voting EFHW seems to be "she hasn't done anything"; the same is certainly true of Didds.

Sure, but Didds doesn't do much D1, right? EFHW does more.

Those are two relevant scenarios. Importantly, if an exile goes through, then scum knows your roles but we do not.

Also, if one of you is mayor and the other is drunk, voting now isn't good either. So I see no benefit of that vote.

Did you see this Dylan?

You mean if Joseph and I vote at X-3 and an exile goes through? Assuming that's what you meant, from my perspective that would mean I'm mayor and Joseph is scum; neutral view it's those two roles between the two of us. I've already said in other posts why us being one of each is exactly why we vote at X-3. Why don't you just lay out your ideal version of the plan, because honestly I'm just not seeing how we are missing each other on this...
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #315 on: December 06, 2021, 11:16:30 am »

I'm happy with handing them IC status.

And now I can't help chucking at the picture:
Dylan and Joseph take their seats at the front of the city council. "Right, so here we are, time for a new era. One of us is your Mayor, and one of us is drunk. We're not sure which. But together we will lead you into a new and brighter era for our city. Trust us."
Also, they are both mice.

I'd like to think it's more like one of us has a hidden drinking problem that nobody knows about and the other just picks up the slack without questioning it.
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scolapasta

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #316 on: December 06, 2021, 11:44:06 am »

I think we just need to decide testing or not and then move on (and really, by we it's in Joseph's hands right now).
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Joseph2302

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #317 on: December 06, 2021, 11:45:28 am »

I think we just need to decide testing or not and then move on (and really, by we it's in Joseph's hands right now).
I'm for testing, but also would like some consensus from the group on it if possible
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #318 on: December 06, 2021, 11:46:12 am »

As far as exiling WCD, meh. I mean if we want a lurker, I guess. But I've never been a fan of exiling lurkers D1, and WCD at least says she was on vacation and has a reasonable excuse for it. I'm more curious about gkrieg, joth, and swowl. Especially the last two, as they are usually more prolific.

Where you guys at?
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #319 on: December 06, 2021, 11:49:51 am »

I think we just need to decide testing or not and then move on (and really, by we it's in Joseph's hands right now).
I'm for testing, but also would like some consensus from the group on it if possible

I mean I think some testing is possible for sure. If you vote, and no exile it means you're not both mayors. Though I don't think that's especially surprising. Or useful, since it does still leave the possibilities of both drunk, one mayor/drunk and 1 (or both, I guess) of you scum.
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #320 on: December 06, 2021, 12:02:40 pm »

I can understand the argument for Didds being scum. Though almost certainly, my vote shouldn't matter, unless neither Dylan nor me are drunk?

Your vote matters if one of you us scum.
True. I guess it'd be good information for me (as I'm not scum), but not for anyone else

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
This sounds like you are assuming Joseph is the drunk and you are the mayor.

Sorry, been reading on mobile today and just saw this.

How? ...
First you say the only way a Joseph vote is bad is if he is lying/scum. That means you think he is the drunk. You qualify that by saying you could both be mayors, but you think that is very unlikely. You don't mention the scenario in which you are drunk and he is mayor. I realize that you are talking about bad outcomes, and it would be ok for Joseph to vote in that case (you drunk, him mayor). But all your responses to everything have been very thorough. I am wondering if you forgot about that possibility.

Apparently what I'm seeing as the plan isn't as clear as I thought it was, so let me lay out the ELI5 version so we don't waste more time going through this rather than A) doing the thing and B) finding scum.

Situation: 6 needed to exile; two claimed mayors/drunks don't know which is which. As I've said, it's is probably safe to assume we have one of each, but the iterations of the test can confirm exactly which it is. I won't use names, because it really does not matter which of the two of us has which role, and my test intentionally leaves that ambiguous to hide that info from scum N1.

In another post, I explaned why I feel safe assuming that if Joseph is telling the truth, then we likely have one mayor and one drunk instead of two of each, with two mayors being by far the least likely setup. If you disagree with that assessment, say so, because that's a valid disagreement we could talk through and adjust for. Going forward in this post, I am assuming there are not two mayors, but if there are, Joseph and I voting at X-4 would trigger an exile.

Test Phase One: Vote a wagon to X-3. Player A and B (the two claimers) vote. It doesn't matter if the wagon is X, Y, Z, Drunk, Mayor, or X, Y, Z, Mayor, Drunk, it will be X-1. This is what meant when I said the only way a Joseph vote is bad is if he is lying scum (assuming we aren't both mayors).

If Joseph is town: If I'm drunk, the wagon is still at X-3, so mayor!Joseph makes it X-1 and drunk!Joseph keeps it at X-3. If I'm the mayor it's X-1, and as per my assumption above, drunk!Joseph votes and, and it's still X-1. No exile goes through. If Joseph is scum (and consequently has a regular vote): if I'm drunk, we are now at X-2, and if I'm mayor the exile happens.

So after the first test phase, the only way an exile can happen (aka the only way it would be bad for Joseph to vote for Didds if we don't intend for them to be the exile), is if Joseph is scum, so then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor (and from my perspective I would be confirmed mayor since I know my alignment). Otherwise, we know that possible combinations are mayor/drunk or drunk/scum (I suppose from neutral perspective scum/scum is mathematically on the table still, but that can be ruled out using the individual test that had originally been brought up on one of us). Assuming no exile happened, proceed to phase two.

Phase Two: Random other player votes with what *should* be the hammer. If exile happens, there were exactly two votes between Joseph and I, which means we had one mayor and one drunk as expected and we are IC (unless you genuinely think Joseph and I BOTH fakeclaimed, in which case, test one of us individually to make it mathematically 100%). If no exile, go to phase 3.

Phase Three: One more person votes. If the exile happens, one of us (Joseph) lied and the other (me) is drunk. If no exile, we are both drunks, and the wagon is for sure at X-1.

If you don't understand, doubt, or disagree with anything, please be specific with your questions in relation to this, because I've been sick this weekend and it's totally possible I'm just not thinking or typing as clearly as I think I am lol.

ppe 4
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #321 on: December 06, 2021, 12:06:14 pm »

It seems like having both Dylan and Joseph vote for the same person is entirely pointless.
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #322 on: December 06, 2021, 12:06:48 pm »

I agree with EFHW and scola I think. This trying to get people to vote at the right time in the right order is killing scum-hunting.

Dylan being on Didds at the moment is preventing anyone else (except Joseph) from voting there. So it is hard to work out how much consensus there is for a Didds exile. Clearly me, faust and gkrieg are up for it, and MiX says he is. So if Dylan and Joseph both want a Didds exile then that's enough. But if our ICs are feeling bullied into it just for the sake of a plan, then something has gone wrong.

How about if Dylan and Joseph hold off voting, or vote in non-bold only or something (better check with the mod that non-bold votes won't count!!), for now. That'll let people vote freely without fearing that they're messing up a plan.

I think testing Dylan/Joseph should be way below scum hunting on our priority list. They are ICs.

PPE 2
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #323 on: December 06, 2021, 12:11:20 pm »

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
This sounds like you are assuming Joseph is the drunk and you are the mayor.

Sorry, been reading on mobile today and just saw this.

How? ...
First you say the only way a Joseph vote is bad is if he is lying/scum. That means you think he is the drunk. You qualify that by saying you could both be mayors, but you think that is very unlikely. You don't mention the scenario in which you are drunk and he is mayor. I realize that you are talking about bad outcomes, and it would be ok for Joseph to vote in that case (you drunk, him mayor). But all your responses to everything have been very thorough. I am wondering if you forgot about that possibility.

So now that I've laid it all out, the bolded does not logically follow at all. Of all the possible role combos, the only ones in which an exile goes through when Joseph votes is mayor!me + scum!Joseph and mayor!me + mayor!Joseph. That does not mean other combos are not possible, only that those other combos do not result in an exile and are thus safe. I did not forget about the drunk!me, mayor!him scenario like you suggested, as it falls into the category of "safe for Joseph to vote," and I specifically meant to only list the ones in which it was not safe, so I did not list it.

ppe 2
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #324 on: December 06, 2021, 12:12:17 pm »

It seems like having both Dylan and Joseph vote for the same person is entirely pointless.

Did you read my post right above yours?
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9
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