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Author Topic: M136: Mouse Mafia (GAME OVER - RATS WIN)  (Read 71482 times)

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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Sign-ups)
« Reply #250 on: December 05, 2021, 03:08:05 am »

I don't know whether or not this would be something scum!faust would have noticed, but I am starting to see a potential scum narrative for his play so far. Propose revealing mayor/drunk to reveal the player that would likely be IC later so they could be killed before it matters. When two people claimed, back off of the plan to verify the ICs so that scum could leave them alive just long enough to throw suspicion at the claims (given the potential for town to have an insane cop, that is potentially another way we are made to look sus) and then when town feels the need to verify our claims, one of us could be roleblocked and framed to look like a liar. Obviously there are several assumptions in this, but it's the best case I've come up with so far.
If I am following you, you think that my plan as scum was:
- remove 2 townies from the exilepool today
- use the scum Roleblocker in a way that potentially helps town (by allowing a Drunk to vote)
- profit by having one of the two ICs that I created no longer be an IC, but instead in the position they would have been without my plan, and the other one still an IC

I mean... I like to think that I can come up with better plans.

- The fact two people claimed mayor probably wasn't what you would have expected to happen, thinking only one or the other being in the setup would be more likely
- If we ran up a wagon on a mayor we would claim before being exiled and then likely be tested and verified IC anyway, so they ultimately weren't in the exile pool anyway
- Say N1 you roleblock drunk!me and then we go into D2 and want to officially prove Joseph and I are IC. We vote at L-3 and surprise, the exile goes through, and now the assumption would have been one of us lied, so the next day town would be figuring out who to exile between Joseph and I instead of actually finding the real scum.
- If the game is still going D4 because we haven't found scum and we haven't actually publicly proven our IC status beyond just people believing the claims, there's a case to be made that at that point you should absolutely have Joseph and I prove it just to make sure neither of us is lying. Using the roleblocker that day to frame us and get a late game misexile of what otherwise should have been an IC would be really good.

Right, so.

It's probably good to make an IC, right?

So we need a Mayor/Drunk to claim please.

Actually all of them need to claim, otherwise this won't work.


What was "this"?
Testing the claims.

But then they claimed and you said no testing should be done right? What changed?
That was always my intention, but until the claims I had to maintain the idea that we would verify claims in order to discourage fakeclaims.

The fact you did actually plan in advance to not verify the claims could corroborate the narrative here since you had thought through the whole thing and didn't actually want to create an IC. Sus out the claim, kill the IC N1 instead of letting them make it to the late game when an IC most helps the PoE. As it is, getting two claims and not proving them would be even better for you because you could kill one and leave the other alive and let them be framed later.

Either way, now that I've point out that scum could manipulate our proof on later days, we either need to do it today or just agree that Joseph and I are ICs for the game since any failed vote tests have a decent chance of being a false scum result. I strongly believe we should test now rather than putting it off. If anyone hits X-3 in the next 24ish hours after I get up in the morning, I'll vote, and hopefully Joseph will follow it up, and that would at least rule out the mayor+scum possibility, and if we want to take it further we can coordinate.
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faust

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Sign-ups)
« Reply #251 on: December 05, 2021, 04:32:28 am »

Eh I guess we're doing this.

- The fact two people claimed mayor probably wasn't what you would have expected to happen, thinking only one or the other being in the setup would be more likely
I always thought that 2 claims were more likely than one. Hence my continued pushing for claims after Joseph claimed.

- If we ran up a wagon on a mayor we would claim before being exiled and then likely be tested and verified IC anyway, so they ultimately weren't in the exile pool anyway
You have a very rosy view of how end-of-day situations play out. When do we ever run a wagon to intent to hammer with enough time left to create another wagon and perform a test that requires specific people to vote at specific times?

- Say N1 you roleblock drunk!me and then we go into D2 and want to officially prove Joseph and I are IC. We vote at L-3 and surprise, the exile goes through, and now the assumption would have been one of us lied, so the next day town would be figuring out who to exile between Joseph and I instead of actually finding the real scum.
See, I am not seeing how this would help scum!me. It is very transparent that scum can have a Roleblocker, this was already talked about extensively. The idea that scum!me would assume that town immediately jumps to the conclusion that there was a lie is fairly ridiculous. At worst, you would lose your IC status and be in no worse a position than if you never had claimed in the first place.

- If the game is still going D4 because we haven't found scum and we haven't actually publicly proven our IC status beyond just people believing the claims, there's a case to be made that at that point you should absolutely have Joseph and I prove it just to make sure neither of us is lying. Using the roleblocker that day to frame us and get a late game misexile of what otherwise should have been an IC would be really good.
A couple of things about this.
1. If the game is still going D4, it seems very dangerous to do a test in a situation that close to XyLo.
2. This plan only works if scum can ensure that the Roleblocker lives until N3. If scum have that much control over the game then they can probably just pull of a flawless win.
3. As I said before, the assumption that a Drunk/Mayor being non-confirmed equals them being scum is ludicrous and not a position anyone would take.
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infangthief

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #252 on: December 05, 2021, 04:54:25 am »

Thanks faust and MiX for your thoughts on the possible scumslip. I realise now there are more ways of reading what scola said than my initial reading.
Still I would like to hear from scola himself before I say more about it.
For now though, back to vote: MiX. Could be X-2.
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infangthief

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #253 on: December 05, 2021, 04:59:24 am »

vote: fang. Bad case.
Which one? I've made a number of cases, two each on MiX and scola I think.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #254 on: December 05, 2021, 05:19:33 am »

vote: fang. Bad case.
Which one? I've made a number of cases, two each on MiX and scola I think.

Cases so bad you go back to them? Why did you vote for me?
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infangthief

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #255 on: December 05, 2021, 05:21:35 am »

I've only skim-read the recent Dylan-faust exchange, but I think before it started faust already pointed out that there's no downside in using Dylan's testing method today also, so long as Dylan and Joseph both approve of the eventual exile, which seems like a good idea anyway.

PPE 1
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infangthief

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #256 on: December 05, 2021, 05:22:23 am »

vote: fang. Bad case.
Which one? I've made a number of cases, two each on MiX and scola I think.

Cases so bad you go back to them? Why did you vote for me?
Which time? Originally or most recently?
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infangthief

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #257 on: December 05, 2021, 05:25:58 am »

Originally, because you were refusing to commit yourself to whether you would claim mayor or not, even though you said you saw no downside to the plan of all mayors claiming today. You just hoped no-one would actually ask you in particular.

Most recently, because I want to be voting for whoever I most want to see exiled today.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #258 on: December 05, 2021, 05:31:40 am »

Originally, because you were refusing to commit yourself to whether you would claim mayor or not, even though you said you saw no downside to the plan of all mayors claiming today. You just hoped no-one would actually ask you in particular.

Most recently, because I want to be voting for whoever I most want to see exiled today.

The downside is not everyone will claim mayor. So why should I?

And I would like to know why you want me to be exiled? That's not really a full answer.
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infangthief

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #259 on: December 05, 2021, 06:00:59 am »

Originally, because you were refusing to commit yourself to whether you would claim mayor or not, even though you said you saw no downside to the plan of all mayors claiming today. You just hoped no-one would actually ask you in particular.

Most recently, because I want to be voting for whoever I most want to see exiled today.

The downside is not everyone will claim mayor. So why should I?

And I would like to know why you want me to be exiled? That's not really a full answer.
Quite. Especially if you try to shut down the claims after just the one claim.
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infangthief

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #260 on: December 05, 2021, 06:01:31 am »

But actually, vote: Didds
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #261 on: December 05, 2021, 08:59:24 am »

Howdy hey, friends! I’m just checking in. Fang, is that vote a prod or does my inability to figure out what to do with two mayors actually make you think I’m scummy? The case is so compelling and fully developed that I’m not sure how to respond.

I’m spending the day with my sister and my folks in Atlanta, but I’m headed back to Texas tomorrow so I’ll have time to get caught up en route. AND I’m done teaching for the semester (just final exams and entering grades remain) so I should be much more available from tomorrow going forward.

xoxo
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faust

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #262 on: December 05, 2021, 09:03:23 am »

Vote: Didds
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mathdude

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #263 on: December 05, 2021, 10:41:43 am »

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #264 on: December 05, 2021, 11:05:53 am »

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #265 on: December 05, 2021, 11:07:41 am »

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?
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Dylan32

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #266 on: December 05, 2021, 11:12:05 am »

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #267 on: December 05, 2021, 11:13:53 am »

Those are two relevant scenarios. Importantly, if an exile goes through, then scum knows your roles but we do not.

Also, if one of you is mayor and the other is drunk, voting now isn't good either. So I see no benefit of that vote.
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EFHW

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #268 on: December 05, 2021, 11:43:25 am »

Just reread EFHW. I see no reason to think she's town. She focused on both mayor claims, and is now voting fang for acting scummy. Feels like the easiest thing in the world.

Vote: EFHW, let's move on with the day.
Why EFHW?

Why not? I felt like EFHW hadn't done anything.

I'm subtle is all. What have you done?
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EFHW

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #269 on: December 05, 2021, 11:44:27 am »

vote: fang. Bad case.
Which one? I've made a number of cases, two each on MiX and scola I think.
The scumslip argument.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #270 on: December 05, 2021, 11:47:29 am »

I'm subtle is all. What have you done?

I've tried to kickstart the game, I gave my opinion on the mayor claims and the mayor plan, I reread a few people and gave my reads there, I tried to find good votes, and currently I'm trying to uphold Dylan's plan (which funnily enough involved arguing with Dylan's current vote).
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EFHW

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #271 on: December 05, 2021, 11:49:20 am »

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
This sounds like you are assuming Joseph is the drunk and you are the mayor.
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EFHW

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #272 on: December 05, 2021, 11:54:05 am »

I'm subtle is all. What have you done?

I've tried to kickstart the game, I gave my opinion on the mayor claims and the mayor plan, I reread a few people and gave my reads there, I tried to find good votes, and currently I'm trying to uphold Dylan's plan (which funnily enough involved arguing with Dylan's current vote).
similar, except I haven't reread anyone and I'm not supporting the plan because first I was against it and now for some reason I find it annoying. I know it isn't actually an attempt to break the game, but it has that feeling to me.
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MiX

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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #273 on: December 05, 2021, 12:00:38 pm »

I'm subtle is all. What have you done?

I've tried to kickstart the game, I gave my opinion on the mayor claims and the mayor plan, I reread a few people and gave my reads there, I tried to find good votes, and currently I'm trying to uphold Dylan's plan (which funnily enough involved arguing with Dylan's current vote).
similar, except I haven't reread anyone and I'm not supporting the plan because first I was against it and now for some reason I find it annoying. I know it isn't actually an attempt to break the game, but it has that feeling to me.

It doesn't help me stop voting you when you say "same, except some things", which basically means you've done less than me, and I haven't actually done much this game.

I guess that's not exactly your fault. Just wanna put my reaction to that post out there.
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Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #274 on: December 05, 2021, 12:08:16 pm »

I wasn't trying to change your vote.

The thing about all the planning is that it is a great place for scum to hide while seeming active.  Trying to look for ICs means we aren't scumhunting. We can get a lot of the same info from a vca in which Joseph or Dylan is on wagon. Simple, what is all this discussion about?

I don't think fakeclaiming mayor would be a smart scum move, but I don't feel either claim is particularly compelling, and there are weak spots in both, as I have pointed out. I don't want to hand them IC status quite yet.
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