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Author Topic: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 5)  (Read 154310 times)

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1700 on: October 02, 2021, 07:22:25 pm »

Alright, Swowl. Thoughts on e and iguana?
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Swowl

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1701 on: October 02, 2021, 08:23:47 pm »

Alright, Swowl. Thoughts on e and iguana?

Iím thinking. Still inclined to say iguana.

Trying to find a way in which E! as skum would fake this result, and Iím not coming up with anything
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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Dylan32

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1702 on: October 02, 2021, 08:59:12 pm »

I've been very LA from this past Thursday up through this coming Monday morning and I'm limited to mobile. If there have actually been enough votes to need an official count, lmk, but otherwise feel free to throw an unofficial count up if someone wants one. Thanks, and sorry for any inconvenience!
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Swowl

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1703 on: October 02, 2021, 11:06:10 pm »

E! I apologize cuz I am sure you have answered this, but what was the reasoning on checking II with your one shot?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1704 on: October 02, 2021, 11:45:02 pm »

I mean IFFFF E! is lying, then it ends up 2v3 two days from now in a best case scenario for skum.
Today exile II
Tonight Skum kills mason 1
Tomorrow Exile E!
That night skum kills mason 2.
That leaves [Swowl, Faust, Joth, Math, Jimmm] with 2 skum in it.
We then have to exile. And we have to be right. Then skum shoots, assuming we are still playing, and it is 1v2. final day.

OTOH if it went the other way and we were to exile E! (in this case they flipping skum) that would mean there are 3 ICs in the game (masonsX2 + E!). We exile E!, thats 8. skum would kill one of them, then we would have 2v5. Lets just say town exile that day becaues that is what they would plan for, now we are at 2v4. Then they kill another IC at night. We wake up in two days from now 2v3.
Say we find skum that day, cool cool cool. Still 2v1.

All of it ends up at the same place. Why does skum E! doe this here?

Vote: Iguana
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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2.71828.....

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1705 on: October 03, 2021, 12:01:03 am »

E! I apologize cuz I am sure you have answered this, but what was the reasoning on checking II with your one shot?

Bottom line is that I thought they were scummy, but also that others were scummy based on interactions with iguana.

You look at when I voted WCD. It was due to EFHW interactions, but my next post mentions she is scummy for how she interacted with iguana, who I still viewed as potential scum

Then I had linked iguana and faust together as 1 scum 1 town (starting at both scum, moving to 1 and 1 which is where I was at overnight, then back to 2 scum now).

So I viewed iguana as an info flip with investigating.

And finally there was a bit of godfather avoidance going on. The last thing I wanted was a false negative, but with the game situation I knew I couldn't hold off on investigating any longer than I did. For whatever reason I felt iguana would not be the godfather. Glad I was right.
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MiX

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1706 on: October 03, 2021, 02:31:58 am »

Still think e's scum, faust?
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faust

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1707 on: October 03, 2021, 02:56:00 am »

Still think e's scum, faust?
I am VLA and have to read.

I want Swowl to explain what was going on with his EFHW read on D2.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1708 on: October 03, 2021, 03:05:40 am »

I'm going back and forth on this a bit. iguana has been mostly Towny and his more emotional posts have been fairly convincing, but he has given scum pings from time to time. e I haven't found as Towny, but his claim seems Towny enough, and I'm not seeing the need for scum e to draw this much attention  to himself.
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jotheonah

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1709 on: October 03, 2021, 07:44:40 am »

Maybe faust and iguana are partners?

Thatís the scenario where planting the idea of scum investigating scum really pays off for him, because heís introduced real doubt about which one of them to exile and created a situation where even if we exile iguana and heís scum, e! isnít an IC. Thatís a pretty great beat case scenario for scum with a caught partner, especially when you know there are two other ICs already that itís too late to do anything about.
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jotheonah

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1710 on: October 03, 2021, 07:45:11 am »

Unvote
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1711 on: October 03, 2021, 11:05:38 am »

Good morning friends!

So, weíve heard from everyone now. There isnít any tension with eís claim that I see. Iím going to wait to vote until faust and whomever else have had time to reread, but I donít have any reason to disbelieve e so I plan to vote for iguana.

Iguana, I wanted to say this now, if youíre scum, you have played really well in my opinion. Your posts defending yourself are well articulated and the frustration seems authentic. The fact that there is this much doubt speaks to how well youíve played.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1712 on: October 03, 2021, 12:19:39 pm »

It seems that the tides are turning against me. I will try to respond to everyone individually later today but for now maybe consider this?

Is it possible you are all underestimating the bravado of the guy who says he underestimates the danger he's in? And just how good of a position scum is in after they misexile me?

Given that all my allies seem to be abandoning me, doesn't it seem likely that the one without allies is also the one without partners?
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

jotheonah

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1713 on: October 03, 2021, 12:25:22 pm »

It seems that the tides are turning against me. I will try to respond to everyone individually later today but for now maybe consider this?

Is it possible you are all underestimating the bravado of the guy who says he underestimates the danger he's in? And just how good of a position scum is in after they misexile me?

Given that all my allies seem to be abandoning me, doesn't it seem likely that the one without allies is also the one without partners?

If your partners are good it doesnít really behoove them to defend you here. I would not expect cop-caught scum to have partners defending. And if they did, theyíd be doing it the way faust is, by throwing suspicion on the cop.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1714 on: October 03, 2021, 12:28:48 pm »

If Faust is 2.7's partner, he's chosen the quite genius strategy of defending me in a way that convinced everyone else that I'm Faust's partner and therefore scum :/
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1715 on: October 03, 2021, 12:29:21 pm »

This game is not going to end up helping with the faust complex....
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1716 on: October 03, 2021, 12:54:01 pm »

e, what were you trying to achieve by "stringing it along", but also immediately calling iguana scum and voting for him without providing much of a reason?

Also, when did you decide that iguana would be your target? Did you think much during the Night about what you might do with whatever result you got?

 I did not think much overnight about what I would do whatever the result. I had a short period of time between getting the result and the thread opening, and in that period is where I developed all my wonderful ideas. Immediately calling iguana scum was meant as a soft claim of sorts. The overconfidence was meant to spur reactions, then I would follow with my claim. Originally, the whole full cop/1-shot cop was meant to draw the NK N3 then end up not actually being as important since I was 1-shot. I decided that lying wasn't a good idea, so I would just claim "cop with a N2 result" and see who would press me for additional results, imagining that they might be scum. In my mind, I wasn't lying, I was withholding information. Which, yeah, not telling the full truth is a lie, especially because my intention was for people to imagine me as a full cop. I did want to claim before any sort of mass claim, the idea being that scum doesn't need any additional info, and town can use their PRs as they see fit, and I trust town to do what is right. At least what they think is right.

I put iguana down as an initial target at the start of the night with the thought to go back and rethink if I should target someone else. I didn't do that and just stayed on iguana.

Bold added above for emphasis...

On a different note, I don't think we need anyone to claim because we have caught scum for today

I am a cop
I investigated Iguana last night
iguana is an imposter.
So who did you investigate N1?

So e, what are your thoughts of faust, in light of this? I know many have been back and forth on him, based on his strong reactions here D3.
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faust

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1717 on: October 03, 2021, 12:58:18 pm »

Okay caught up. Before I say anything else, and before we exile anyone, I want to hear Swowl's reply.

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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1718 on: October 03, 2021, 01:09:21 pm »

I am inclined to believe e.

Iím not quite sure why others donít. I need to reread to suss that out but I have to work and stuff first.

Itís the timing.

Which is more likelyó town jumped the claim order because they didnít want any more claims to happen than necessary or scum jumped the claim order to avoid being backed into a corner and to give their cop claim more cred?

Unfortunately, both of these are fairly likely.

If town, it makes sense to jump the order to avoid all the claims today (give scum less to work with tonight). But if this was the case, why didn't e more vocally stop the claims? If he's town, wouldn't he strongly force the 1 vs 1 and recommend the claims happen D4? Even if he ends up getting exiled first, at least his role was still useful without giving scum extra info until 1 or 2 days later.

If scum, jumping the order could give his claim of cop more believability over a later claim. A later claim can look like scum reacting to what's out there. They sort of know the amount of power out there, based on their roles, and were probably trying to figure out exactly which ones. The cop claim has the advantage of possibly getting counter-claimed... 2 full cops are quite unlikely, so pretending to be full cop without saying it can reveal one of their biggest threats, which would still have allowed e to back off and clarify that he's just 1-shot like he did.

I think I'm more likely to vote e at this point. The way he came out today, it sounds fake to me.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1719 on: October 03, 2021, 01:30:53 pm »

I am inclined to believe e.

Iím not quite sure why others donít. I need to reread to suss that out but I have to work and stuff first.

Itís the timing.

Which is more likelyó town jumped the claim order because they didnít want any more claims to happen than necessary or scum jumped the claim order to avoid being backed into a corner and to give their cop claim more cred?

But if there are town who make his role unlikely/impossible, theyíd say something, right?

I believe we can look at this in a little more detail now that claims are through.

EFHW was 1-shot doctor, which has to be "E".
Assuming e! is telling the truth and is 1-shot cop, this can be either a second "E" or "C" (doesn't really matter which... I'll just say "C").
Masons likely means "M".

So as long as claims are all true town, and that scum all claimed VT, this should mean we're at ECMTTT, which gives a 1-shot strongman and a roleblocker.

If e is lying scum, then that's only EMTTTT, which is still 1-shot strongman and a roleblocker.  But with those roles, e wouldn't know if there were 2 town roles (as per current claim/assumption in this case) or 3 town roles (which give the same scum roles).  By him claiming cop, he either pushes town up to a claimed 3 roles (no change to assumed scum powers), or up to a claimed 4 roles... which would push his theoretical scum team up to a full strongman instead of 1-shot.

Would scum (team, or e alone if he's acting independent of team plans) risk us believing they have a full strongman, over a 1-shot?  Does it make much difference in how we react to them?  I think the only difference would be the one comment after LL died N1:
The other thing is the LaLight kill N1. It has "trying to avoid the Doctor target" written all over it. However... that would only be a concern if scum doesn't have a full Strongman. That means that there are at most three non-T letters in the setup. And we already have

E - EFHW
M - MiX/Didds
E/C - Swowl

There isn't room for another Cop.

We now know Swowl isn't E/C... he's VT.  I think this was another exercise in futility.  But I've typed it out, so I'm posting it.  Maybe someone else will see some of this differently.  But I don't think it gives us any more info.  I think in any of these cases, e could still pull this move as scum.  I don't think it puts him in any more danger of getting caught.
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MiX

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1720 on: October 03, 2021, 01:33:41 pm »

Thanks for posting that math, I was under the impression e's claim changed the scumteam's powers.

I guess I'll say that makes me trust him more.

I'll have to actually reread him and iguana, and look at the D1 VCA. I don't really feel like doing that though.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1721 on: October 03, 2021, 01:41:44 pm »

I am inclined to believe e.

Iím not quite sure why others donít. I need to reread to suss that out but I have to work and stuff first.

Itís the timing.

Which is more likelyó town jumped the claim order because they didnít want any more claims to happen than necessary or scum jumped the claim order to avoid being backed into a corner and to give their cop claim more cred?

But if there are town who make his role unlikely/impossible, theyíd say something, right?

I guess I didn't really respond to the actual thing I quoted.  Unless there were already 2 other 1-shot cops (EFHW as 1-shot doctor could either be "DD" with another full doctor, or "E", or part of "EE", or potentially part of "EEE"), 2.71 claiming 1-shot cop doesn't ring any bells.  With scum knowing there were 2 or 3 power roles, EEE seems quite unlikely.  "EEC" would probably be their only concern, if it comes up doctor (EFHW), 1-shot cop, 1-shot cop... plus 2.71's fake claim 1-shot cop.  But if that unlikely situation comes up, then it's just 1 of the 3 1-shot cops that's lying, and that's not great odds for us.  Seems a very safe claim.

Even if full cop came up in claims (likely "CC"), combined with EFHW's likely "E", that's the end of the power roles... 2.71's 1-shot cop just looks like either EEEC or ECCC.  So him claiming ahead of anyone else with a 1-shot cop seemed likely it was nearly foolproof.

This still doesn't prove he's lying.  He could still be telling the truth.  But it does show that if he is lying, there was almost no risk in doing it.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1722 on: October 03, 2021, 01:43:05 pm »

Thanks for posting that math, I was under the impression e's claim changed the scumteam's powers.

I guess I'll say that makes me trust him more.

I'll have to actually reread him and iguana, and look at the D1 VCA. I don't really feel like doing that though.

You can look back through my posts to find info-dumps of vote counts (including many that hadn't been seen in official or even unofficial vote counts, up to that point).
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1723 on: October 03, 2021, 02:00:03 pm »

I mean you hadn't even decided what to claim at the moment you were typing it out. Did you just realize 1 shot was way more likely with EFHW's flip after the fact?

I see you did some setup analysis in the scum QT N0. Not surprising.

Yeah except this isnt exactly the first time I've played Asher++ and I read the gkrieg/Ash masons one where it all came down to bad analysis of how likely roles are to appear, so I just know this stuff a priori.

This is another reason we need to mass claim. To see how likely his role is to even exist in the first place. (Probably not, because he made it up)

I believe this is the 2nd time iguana has said to continue the massclaim, since he was called out by e.

I said in a recent post what I believe scum!e's and town!e's opinion would be to continuing the massclaim, after he claimed his result on iguana.  I figured he would want it not to continue if town, to protect the rest of town roles.  But he didn't stop us from claiming.  That points me toward thinking he's scum.

Now, what would iguana believe about the massclaim?

If iguana is town, would he have any idea whether massclaim is a good idea or not?  He may feel that it will help reveal an inconsistency in e's claim, but as I showed in my recent post, 1-shot cop is about as safe of a claim as scum can make (as with claiming VT).  But if he hadn't thought through all that, I wouldn't blame him, immediately going on the defensive.

But if iguana is scum, he knows e is telling the truth.  He knows at this point that EFHW gives a (likely) "E" result, and e gives either a second E (i.e. "EE") or a C (i.e. "EC").  And based on what we now know about scum roles, there are either 2 or 3 total town powers (for TTT or TTTT). So he knows that at most, only 1 more power will be revealed in the claims, and it basically can't reveal e as a liar.

Based on this, I don't think scum!iguana advocates for continuing massclaim.  I think he just tries to play it out, and hope e gets exiled first.  And he does advocate for continuing the claims more than once.
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mathdude

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Re: M135: Among Us Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1724 on: October 03, 2021, 02:26:24 pm »

Voting from D3 so far... assuming I haven't missed anything.

Iguana (2): 2.71, Swowl
2.71 (1): faust
WCD (1): joth

Iguana (2): 2.71, Swowl
2.71 (3): faust, joth, iguana

Iguana (1): 2.71
2.71 (3): faust, joth, iguana

Iguana (2): 2.71, Swowl
2.71 (1): iguana

(Final set is current count).
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