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[Galzria]

I get that Saturday (4 posts) and Sunday (6 posts) are the weekend and some people aren't as available.  But today's posts (i.e. this being the first one) are sad for a Monday.

mathdude yawns

Yeah, sorry. There’s been some discussion happening within the Fortress - which I suppose is super boring out here.

[mathdude]

Yay, a post!

Yes, there was a bit in Snow White QT as well, but not too much.

So? Willing to vote pasta or are you two partners in crime?

[WestCoastDidds]

I’m catching up with the fortress chat...

[WestCoastDidds]

Galz was in the fortress earlier today, Scola posted very recently. Math is in the 7d hideout now, but we haven’t seen Swowl since last night.

I’d prefer to let Swowl get here before we get down to any further votes because things will happen quickly once voting begins in earnest.

[Swowl]

Swowl pops his head out the window and says hello!

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 4.1



scolapasta (1): mathdude

Not voting: scolapasta, WestCoastDidds, Galzria, Swowl
Not playing: MiX, jotheonah, Ozle, Diddzria
Playing, but dead, PINL: Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to exile. Day 4 ends at 9 am forum time tomorrow.

[WestCoastDidds]

I didn’t realize the deadline was quite so soon. I’ll vote before I go to bed.

[Galzria]

I’m here.

I ran everything through the Fortress, but tell me here if A) My conclusions are wrong, and B) If you see a better outcome.

Previously, I had run the results of exiling Me/Didds - And I think the end result comes down to Swowl killing correctly at night between Scola/Math. The problem that I didn’t consider is if, for some reason, Swowl cannot kill scum if they’re in the Fortress (that’s not how the protection of the Fortress was presented, but we are unfortunately unclear on exactly how the Fortress works). If Swowl cannot kill scum here at night, town loses.

So what if we exile between Scola/Math instead?:

If we exile scum!Math, Swowl kills either Didds or Me. If he kills scum, game over, town wins. If he hits town, Scola will be able to Exile scum on the last day. This result is identical for exiling Scum!Scola here. If Swowl cannot kill either of us because of the Fortress, it becomes a race for Me & Didds (and whichever town player is still alive) to log in. I Exile Didds, town wins. Didds exile’s me, scum wins. The third player would have to snap make up their own mind.

If we exile town!Math, Swowl may or may not be able to kill amongst Scola/Didds/Galz. The clear choice is Scola, as that sets Didds and I up as a race to log in and vote. If Swowl cannot kill scum!Scola, scum wins. But if we exile town!Scola today, at the very least Swowl CAN kill scum!Math, guaranteeing the race to vote on the Final day.

My conclusion is that if we exile between Scola/Math, at worst were in a race to vote tomorrow between Didds and me, and at best town straight wins if we hit scum today. With that said, I think exiling the person who DOESN’T have an unknown protection with the Fortress is the safest play - so I think we should exile Scola.

Thoughts?

[Galzria]

I had too many negatives in the last sentence. The conclusion was intended though:

I think the safest play is to Exile the person who might have an unknown protection in the Fortress. If Scola is scum, it may be the only way to handle him. If he’s town, at least Swowl can still kill Math at night. This may or may not work in reverse: If Math is town and we exile him, we do NOT know if Swowl can kill Scola.

[mathdude]

Obviously, knowing I'm town, I see your thoughts from a different perspective. But from your point of view, I do think you are making sense. If we are picking between me and Scola, obviously you know where my vote is... it's there already. But it does make sense - if it's between me and Scola, and the backup is Swowl shooting overnight, you want that shot not targeting someone in the fortress, if possible.

[scolapasta]

I think you're creating doubt about the fortress protection. It doesn't protect scum. That seemed clear enough from what it says.

It makes perfect sense that if it's all town inside it would not always protect. Because otherwise scum could not win. So what we saw before were it protected when swowl targeted bright strongly implies town inside. This, of course, was before I was inside.

But if I'm scum, swowl should be able to kill me. It's only if I'm town that he wouldn't be able to.

I know you're trying to created doubt there, but that's a scum move. Which mkaes no sense to me though, since the fortress protected bright.

So honestly, I don't know. I know I'm town. I know we town are better off if i continue to live. But I get you don't know that.

[Swowl]

Swowl thinks to himself and decides that Galz assumption of not being able to shoot skum in the fortress doesn't really add up with what has been said about the protection. However, Swowl also says he is fine with a Pasta exile today.

[Galzria]

I think your interpretation is wrong. I think that what the Fortress does IS protect. Whoever is in it. It sounded like Bright corrected himself just before death to say the protection was LESSENED by scum being in it - but he still wasn’t clear (and may not have known) exactly what that meant. As such, WE do not know exactly what that means. The fact that I’ve a very high confidence in Didds being scum alone makes me think your proposed understanding is wrong.

However, it doesn’t matter: I may be wrong. You may be right. But my point is simply that we do not know ... and relying on that mechanic when we don’t actually know how it works seems silly.

[scolapasta]

But that doesn't make sense - the lessening can't just be because there was scum in it, because if not, you're saying if all town it's protection can't be broken. And that would not give scum any chance at all if there was a solid town core. It just makes so much more sense that the weakening of the fortress is over time, if attacked enough times.

I said this in the fortress but it makes sense to me that letting a scum in allows scum to kill at night because they're already on the fortress.

Though I guess scum may not have figured that out so have not used the NK with the scum inside?

[Galzria]

I think that the Fortress IS weakened over time when attacked. But consider this interpretation:

The Fortress protects against 4 attacks. As long as there is no scum inside, any attack made against the Fortress reduces it’s protection by 1. If at any point there are scum within the Fortress, its defenses are weakened, and any attacks made against it reduce it’s protection by 2.

Anybody within the Fortress can invite anybody else. It’s not at all unreasonable to think scum could get inside.

I’m not saying that IS the way it works, but certainly it’s an example that is consistent with what we’ve seen and been told. It’s entirely possible that scum within the Fortress right now are protected from outside kills.

[scolapasta]

Except that the description of it really makes it sounds like it could only take 1 more hit. So 2 total. If scum had been there the first time... well I guess you make a point that it only has 1 HP left because of that... hmmm...

[scolapasta]

i.e. it started with 3, and skipped to 1 because one of you or didds is scum. I could see that too, maybe.

Hmmm... it did go from its initial state to where it is now with only 1 hit, so I actually think I may be willing to believe this.

SO scum could be mathdude / didds or mathdude / galz.

[scolapasta]

So I think I've talked myself into being willing to vote for Didds. Galz, you want go that way?

[mathdude]

That's how you've talked yourself into voting Didds? Could be me/Galz or me/Didds, so take a 50/50 and see if someone will join you?

Sure sounds like scrambling.

[scolapasta]

well, no because I never said 50/50. Of galz and didds I've suspected didds more.

That said, I changed my mind. I reread the fortress and don't actually think it's at 1 hp. So I think what I said there was wrong, so I'm back to thinking galz and didds are town with me.

[WestCoastDidds]

Apologies. I don’t want to shut down conversation, but I’ve got to work in the morning

Vote: Scolapasta

[mathdude]

Scola, you are all over the map. Throwing out any little idea to see if anyone will bite on anything with you? No one has, so try again.

[Galzria]

Gonna hammer this. See what happens.

Vote: Scola

[Swowl]

Vote: Pasta

[Swowl]

Swowl says "just to be safe"