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[mathdude]

mathdude smacks his head and realizes it must soon be time for sleep, yet doesn't want to go to sleep. He also is not surprised to see Swowl finding Didds more scummy than Galz.

mathdude still wonders if the Galz/Swowl combo makes this BM game feel more like BM.

mathdude also feels it could be fun and extra challenging to have an entire mafia game where everyone has to respond in third person for the full game.

[WestCoastDidds]

Swowl rubs his tiny stupid dwarf head, and says skum to chum is Pasta/WCD->Galz->Math.

I am beyond delighted with the phrase “tiny stupid dwarf head”!

[Swowl]

Swowl promises it is fun... but becomes moderately taxing after a while...

[WestCoastDidds]

Alright folks.... are we ready? Activity has fallen off in both the qts, and in the thread, so I think maybe we are ready. I don’t want to vote until folks say okay, though. Between the two hateds, this will go fast, I think.

[WestCoastDidds]

Or did Scola decide that he was ready to share something about his role with the rest of us?

[Galzria]

I think Scola was going to share, but I’m not sure. I advised against it in the Fortress last night, but that was before we had two town flips today. Now I’m not so sure.

[WestCoastDidds]

I think Scola was going to share, but I’m not sure. I advised against it in the Fortress last night, but that was before we had two town flips today. Now I’m not so sure.

He's the only one of us who has not shared his abilities or name, so I find it... unusual

[Galzria]

I think Scola was going to share, but I’m not sure. I advised against it in the Fortress last night, but that was before we had two town flips today. Now I’m not so sure.

He's the only one of us who has not shared his abilities or name, so I find it... unusual

Do you? The topic just came up yesterday, and he was waiting to hear from Math. Things don't happen instantaneously.

[mathdude]

I've answered about roles. If pasta will guess my flavour-name, then I'll reveal it (to pasta and Galz who don't yet know). Then I would expect pasta to reveal his after that too.

A question I just posted in QT, but I'll ask here too... I believe Swowl has a mandatory shot tonight - please correct if I'm wrong.

Even if we exile scum today, that leaves 4 going into the night (3 town, 1 scum, presumably) and likely 2 waking up in the morning. So unless Swowl kills properly (picks the right 1 of the remaining 3), then it's 1-1 in the morning, which scum likely wins.

If we exile wrong today, are go into night 2-2 and probably at best wake up 1-1 tomorrow.

But what about no exile? Then if Swowl is scum, he wins. But in QT, I've stated I'm fairly certain he's not anymore. So assuming Swowl is town, that leaves Swowl a 2/4 shot of picking right tonight (better than 1/3). And we likely wake up 2-1 tomorrow, ready to figure out the final vote.

What do you all think of no exile? I think it improves our odds.

[scolapasta]

Sorry, busy day.

I have no idea which dwarf mathdude is. You don't seem particularly Sneezy, Sleepy, or Bashful. So that leave Happy and Grumpy (amusingly enough, opposites). I'll guess Happy?

As for me, joining late as I did, I tried to think of someone who would other wise not have been taken, and when with....

MINI-MI

I did breadcrumb this earlier when I asked joth for 1 million dollars.

[mathdude]

I went with fairly real-life for my dwarf choice. I've got 2 fairly young kids who often keep me up, wake me up in the middle of the night, or get up way too early.

I'm Sleepy.

[Swowl]

Swowl thinks about the no exile idea. He needs to think about it some more.
He does agree with the general logic though.

[mathdude]

Swowl thinks about the no exile idea. He needs to think about it some more.
He does agree with the general logic though.

It puts full trust in you, rather than letting us get swayed by scum as a group. Then tomorrow those who are left figure out what's left.

[WestCoastDidds]

Sorry, busy day.

I have no idea which dwarf mathdude is. You don't seem particularly Sneezy, Sleepy, or Bashful. So that leave Happy and Grumpy (amusingly enough, opposites). I'll guess Happy?

As for me, joining late as I did, I tried to think of someone who would other wise not have been taken, and when with....

MINI-MI

I did breadcrumb this earlier when I asked joth for 1 million dollars.

Ha! One meeelllion dollars! That’s awesome

[mathdude]

Unless someone has a compelling reason to keep this day putting along...

Vote: no exile

[Swowl]

Swowl wonders what everyone's stance is on the No Exile concept.

[scolapasta]

Swowl wonders what everyone's stance is on the No Exile concept.

Busy again today, but will think on this tonight.

[mathdude]

Yawns

Anyone? Looking for opinions. Everyone asleep for the weekend?

[Galzria]

Math:

Your no-exile thought relies on Swowl being town, yes? As you say, if we no-exile here and Swowl is scum, Swowl wins.

So in your thought process here, you are town, as is Swowl. That means there are two scum in {Galzria, Didds, Scola}.

First: Why did the Fortress protect against Swowl's attack N2 if there were scum in it? (This is the same question Didds has asked me, and I've answered her in the Fortress).

Second: You are assuming Swowl has a 2-in-4 chance of getting the kill correct at night. But shouldn't you have a 2-in-3 chance of getting right by exiling from your scum pool today? Why would no-exile be your default choice here?

*****

If there are 2 scum and Swowl is town, and we mis-exile today (let's say me):

Night goes: 2 Town (Swowl + 1), 2 Scum

Swowl has a 2-in-3 chance of shooting Scum. He should NOT shoot Didds (Hated). He should shoot Math or Scola. Assuming Scum kills Swowl to remove the Sword from play at that point, the final day is {Math/Scola} vs Didds. Didds is hated, and takes 1 to exile. If Didds is scum, town wins. So this basically results in Swowl having a 1-in-2 chance of hitting scum (between Scola & Math), the same as you're suggesting Swowl has if we no-exile here. It also relies on the fact that both Didds and I are not town - but as we're both hated and take just 2 to exile, I assume if we both WERE town scum would've exiled us already and won the game - therefore we cannot both be town.

Actually - I think town has this at a 50% to win, based purely on Swowl's choice between Math/Scola:

Exile Me/Didds. I'll flip town, Didds will almost certainly flip scum. Literally doesn't matter:

Assume you flip me, and I turn town. Swowl picks between Math & Scola. If he picks wrong, town loses. If he picks correctly, and scum kills him, the final day is: {Math/Scola} vs Didds, and Didds is hated, town wins on Didds exile.

Assume you flip Didds, and she turns scum. Swowl picks between Math & Scola. If he picks correctly, town wins. If he picks wrong, the final day is: {Math/Scola} vs Me, and I'm hated, scum wins on my exile.

Am I missing something here? I guess what I'm missing is that if Didds and I are both town (as is Swowl), then scum wins (Exile one town, Swowl shoots either Math or Scola, both of which would be scum, and the final day would be whichever he didn't shoot against whichever Hated person didn't get exiled. But if Math & Scola are both scum, why haven't they exiled Didds or me yet?)

[mathdude]

Thanks for posting a real thoughtful post!
You are right that my no exile plan relies on Swowl being town. I have posted in QT some additional reasoning and I do trust Swowl. So personally (knowing I'm town), yes there's a 2/3 chance of voting correctly today... but I believe the math worked out globally to be better with no exile.

Basically, if Swowl is scum and has additional kill, I'm fairly sure whe lost already and it's just a formality of getting to that officially (and there must be one fringe case where we could win, possibly if scum doesn't send in kill).

[WestCoastDidds]

Sorry, y’all, it’s the weekend. More when I’m out from under

[scolapasta]

Sorry, y’all, it’s the weekend. More when I’m out from under

Same

[Swowl]

Swowl emerges from his slumber talking about a dream he had where Galz and Math had two different ideas.

Swowl points out that there is pretty much no way Galz can be skum here to push this plan. It has the same "faith in Swowl shot" outcome as any other plan, with the downside of, if we lynch Town!WCD and swowl shoots skum... then a Skum!Galz just hung themselves.

Swowl also points out that if it were WCD and Galz together... he would equally of hung his team, because when the other was not snap exiled at the start of day tomorrow... it would mean they are skum.

Swowl says he does not think it can be the following teams of 2; WCD!Math, WCD!Galz.
Swowl thinks it is unlikely that it is Math!Galz.


Swowl thinks possibly exiling within Pasta/Math (preferably Pasta) would potentially be a good idea. He thinks that if they flip town, then Swowl shoots the other (which would be hilarious because it would literally be a "who logs in first" for GalzvWCD), or if we flip skum with the exile Swowl could then shoot the other anyways... this would of course create the same situation of "first to log in", unless of course the team is Math/Pasta.

Swowl points out that this is only like 50% a joke.

[mathdude]

Sorry, busy day.

Swowl wonders what everyone's stance is on the No Exile concept.

Busy again today, but will think on this tonight.

Sorry, y’all, it’s the weekend. More when I’m out from under

Same

Between you and Galz (until his recent post), you two have given us almost nothing to read you on.

Vote: pasta
Now you are both at X-2. The rest of you can figure it out. I'm pretty sure it's the two of you.

[mathdude]

I get that Saturday (4 posts) and Sunday (6 posts) are the weekend and some people aren't as available.  But today's posts (i.e. this being the first one) are sad for a Monday.

mathdude yawns