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[mathdude]

I think I've got something useful. And of course Didds is disappearing for a day.

If the information provided to us about the fortress is accurate (protection only works if no scum in fortress, protection is against scum, fortress was attacked last night but no one died), then Bright, Didds, and Galz are all non-scum (i.e. either town or 3rd party).

I think this also makes Swowl scum, as he said he targeted Bright with sword from Galz (who under this assumption is not scum). The only way Swowl is not scum is if fortress protection is against all kills instead of just scum kills, or if Doc Didds actually protected Bright, not Awaclus as he claimed (I don't see town-Didds lying like this, but possibly 3rd party).


Alternatively, if the fortress protection has been misrepresented to us, this basically makes Didds and Bright both scum (or at least non-helpful 3rd party), and it makes Galz a lazy/absent town (for not noticing and/or correcting for us here), or else scum-buddy with them or non-helpful 3rd party. It is possible Bright's ability, growing fortress, is 3rd party and they are all 3rd party of some sort now.

But I think it's more likely they are all scum. Thinking of a logical way to give scum-Bright his ability from a design perspective, he has to invite non-scum first. But scum probably only had night QT, and fortress has night and day, so he wants scum in there. pubby wanted faust (or was its fang, I forget) to join, but Bright didn't. So come to game thread and convince us pubby is scum, invite his scum-buddies, vote pubby out (with Didds making sure me and Swowl help), and now he has freedom to day chat with his scum-buddies. Why else has the 4th spot in the fortress (vacated by pubby) not yet been filled?


So we either have 3 non-scum in the fortress, or we have 3 scum in there (and the "protection" from fortress is Didds knowing who to doctor since Swowl would likely tell in Snow White QT who he's targeting with sword scum-Galz gave him). I'm trying to come up with a way to figure out which.

If we assume they are non-scum, then we likely have 2 or 3 scum out of 5 to find (for me, it's out of 4 since I'm one of the five), the first of which is almost definitely Swowl. And we should exile Swowl, especially since he presumably still has an extra kill from the sword.

On the other hand, if fortress is all scum, then exiling Swowl is not a good idea. Absent of RB or doctor (from scum-Didds), that puts us at 3-3 tomorrow after scum kill overnight and no Swowl with Vig sword anymore. So instead we have to exile within the fortress today. No exile gets us nowhere except Lylo tomorrow, unless we have RB or investigative roles available. If we can RB Didds, then Swowl should be able to kill one of them tonight (assuming he still has Galz' sword), and we are at 4-2 tomorrow, but we have a flip confirming fortress member is scum.

Now what if instead, it's Swowl and 1 or 2 others (among fang, Awaclus, and pasta)? Then if we do the plan above, no-exile, and RB our town doctor (Didds), then we need Galz to confirm whether Swowl stil has sword. If he does, then scum gets 2 kills, with our RB tying up our Doctor. If 3 scum, that leaves us with 3-3 tomorrow, the ability to RB Swowl, but we'd need a lucky doctor overnight. If only 2 scum, then I think it's okay to do this.

Over all those possibilities, if we have a RB, I think they need to claim, we no-exile, block Didds, and hope that if fortress is town and Swowl is scum, that there are only 2 scum total (and if fortress is scum, and Swowl still has sword, then he kills any one of them for us). That leaves decent odds, I believe.

If we have no RB claim in the next 24 hours or so, then we probably just need to decide whether we exile Swowl or someone within the fortress... probably someone other than Didds, because we would want Didds to try and protect against scum kill and/or sword kill if Swowl is the scum.

TLDR: if we have town RB, they claim, we no exile and RB Didds.
If we don't, we choose between killing Swowl, or someone in fortress other than Didds.

PPE 4, I think it said. Going to go read them now

[mathdude]

I read those 4 posts. Even if Awaclus is right (and he might be), I think my idea posted above gets us the best chances for a win.

[WestCoastDidds]

When bright explained the fortress protection, he said it protected us as long as there were no scum in it. I know nothing about this idea that the attack had to come from scum. Bright didn’t say that in the qt, there is nothing Joth has said in the fortress that suggests that, and I’m not sure that follows what what has been said.

There is something interesting about the wording of my role though, it says, paraphrasing, that the fortress only helps against the mafia.

Yeah, I know what he has said in the thread today. I’m saying that is not what I got from the qt discussion, from Joth’s qt posts, or from the invite. I don’t see him explaining it that way ever until recently in the thread and I don’t have any corroborating evidence. I reread it and that is not what he says. The update about the fortress that gets posted each day says inviting baddies undercuts its effectiveness. So Brighty’s claim doesn’t jibe with what I’ve read.

[WestCoastDidds]

Galz, if we exile Swowl does the axesword die with him or does it come back to you?

[WestCoastDidds]

I haven’t read math’s big post yet. We’re about to head out.

Frolicking!

[mathdude]

Alternative to, or maybe even in addition to, the RB...

If someone has investigative result(s), they may also be useful at this point, to help decide if this in fortress are all scum or all town. But we have to take any results with caution:
- if anyone finds someone else in their group (either in fortress or out of fortress) innocent, that could be true or a lie from scum.
- if anyone finds someone outside their group guilty, same problem.
- if someone outside fortress finds someone inside it innocent, I think this confirms all fortress is innocent.
- if someone inside fortress finds someone outside innocent, this doesn't prove anything (could be true or a scum lie).
- if someone inside fortress finds another in there guilty, this makes no sense (they confirm their own guilt, unless they are 3rd party).
- if someone outside fortress finds someone else outside guilty, we may not believe that specific result but I believe that proves (whether a scum lie or true) that scum is outside the fortress.

[infangthief]

Wow, lots to read, will get on to it later. Have a good time camping Didds.

[mathdude]

Wow, lots to read, will get on to it later. Have a good time camping Didds.

You're welcome.

For my large post, there is a TLDR at the bottom. To find how I got there, you have to read it though.

[Swowl]

Swowl answers Awaclus' question from way back stating that he does not "disagree" with any of that logic as it is written... but everything is so "paraphrased" that he doesn't know what to make of anything.

Swowl knows he is town and he targeted Bright. So, he is inclined to believe the "only protects against mafia" addition from bright may not be accurate.

Swowl knows (believes, whatever) the sword came from Galz, and while he gets the concept of the origination of the attack concept.... he does not think galz is skum nor does he think that is how the system would work.

Swowl cannot remember offhand what the last part was....oh... all town. yes he thinks that is possible.

[Awaclus]

If the information provided to us about the fortress is accurate (protection only works if no scum in fortress, protection is against scum, fortress was attacked last night but no one died), then Bright, Didds, and Galz are all non-scum (i.e. either town or 3rd party).

I think this also makes Swowl scum, as he said he targeted Bright with sword from Galz (who under this assumption is not scum). The only way Swowl is not scum is if fortress protection is against all kills instead of just scum kills, or if Doc Didds actually protected Bright, not Awaclus as he claimed (I don't see town-Didds lying like this, but possibly 3rd party).

You're correct that town!Didds would not lie like this, but what you're ignoring is that scum!Didds effectively has no choice but to lie like this.

Alternatively, if the fortress protection has been misrepresented to us, this basically makes Didds and Bright both scum (or at least non-helpful 3rd party), and it makes Galz a lazy/absent town (for not noticing and/or correcting for us here), or else scum-buddy with them or non-helpful 3rd party. It is possible Bright's ability, growing fortress, is 3rd party and they are all 3rd party of some sort now.

But I think it's more likely they are all scum. Thinking of a logical way to give scum-Bright his ability from a design perspective, he has to invite non-scum first. But scum probably only had night QT, and fortress has night and day, so he wants scum in there. pubby wanted faust (or was its fang, I forget) to join, but Bright didn't. So come to game thread and convince us pubby is scum, invite his scum-buddies, vote pubby out (with Didds making sure me and Swowl help), and now he has freedom to day chat with his scum-buddies. Why else has the 4th spot in the fortress (vacated by pubby) not yet been filled?

If the fortress protection has been misrepresented to us, depending on how it has been misrepresented, it may or may not mean that Didds is scum. Didds's argument is that the protection would work even if Swowl was town, which is how she can justify not having a scum read on Swowl. (holy crap, I just realized why this argument doesn't work, but I'll come back to that in a separate post later) If that was true, she would not necessarily be scum. Of course, you are right that if it was misrepresented the other way, then Didds would be confirmed scum alongside Bright.

I don't know how Galzria's laziness follows from Bright lying. I can't tell that Bright is lying based on the info Galz has told everyone, so unless there's more info that everyone in the fortress is still concealing, it's probably to be expected that Galz can't tell either.

Bright's ability probably doesn't convert people, because pubby was there and we know he flipped town. It's possible if it works in a much more complicated way, I guess.

It does seem possible that all three of them are scum. Really, pretty much the only thing we know for sure is that Galz can't be scum unless Didds and/or Bright is also scum; all the other combinations are possible. (I'm not 100% sure that either part of that statement is true but I think it's true)

On the other hand, if fortress is all scum, then exiling Swowl is not a good idea. Absent of RB or doctor (from scum-Didds), that puts us at 3-3 tomorrow after scum kill overnight and no Swowl with Vig sword anymore. So instead we have to exile within the fortress today. No exile gets us nowhere except Lylo tomorrow, unless we have RB or investigative roles available. If we can RB Didds, then Swowl should be able to kill one of them tonight (assuming he still has Galz' sword), and we are at 4-2 tomorrow, but we have a flip confirming fortress member is scum.

Now what if instead, it's Swowl and 1 or 2 others (among fang, Awaclus, and pasta)? Then if we do the plan above, no-exile, and RB our town doctor (Didds), then we need Galz to confirm whether Swowl stil has sword. If he does, then scum gets 2 kills, with our RB tying up our Doctor. If 3 scum, that leaves us with 3-3 tomorrow, the ability to RB Swowl, but we'd need a lucky doctor overnight. If only 2 scum, then I think it's okay to do this.

If the scum team is you, Swowl and Didds, you already know this will result in a scum win.

[Awaclus]

Yeah, I know what he has said in the thread today. I’m saying that is not what I got from the qt discussion, from Joth’s qt posts, or from the invite. I don’t see him explaining it that way ever until recently in the thread and I don’t have any corroborating evidence. I reread it and that is not what he says. The update about the fortress that gets posted each day says inviting baddies undercuts its effectiveness. So Brighty’s claim doesn’t jibe with what I’ve read.

So, your argument is that the fortress protection must have been active because Bright was lying.

There's just one problem with that: if Bright is lying, we have no reason to think there is any fortress protection in the first place.

[Awaclus]

Swowl knows he is town and he targeted Bright. So, he is inclined to believe the "only protects against mafia" addition from bright may not be accurate.

If you believe Bright is lying, why do you trust any part of Bright's claim?

[infangthief]

By the way, has Galzria been active much in his neighbourhoods today (this game day)? Like his last meaningful post in the main thread was:

which is like 65 hours ago now.
Since then just one thing saying something like don't prod me I'm catching up.
Anything going on with him in neighbourhoods?

[Awaclus]

Not in my neighborhood (although to be exact, it's not a neighborhood, it's under a bridge).

[mathdude]

Not in my neighborhood (although to be exact, it's not a neighborhood, it's under a bridge).

So Awaclus is a bridge troll. And everyone is busy for the weekend. Got it.

[scolapasta]

I'm starting to lean towards a Didds vote. I hate it, because it feels like I'm being lead there (and if she is town, I am, and gg scum), but my gut says it's a better path than other votes.

My gut is also considering mathdude again. There's just something intangible that reads scum to me. But it feels like the path for the day is first Didds or not Didds.

That said, I will respect her camping and not vote right now.

[infangthief]

I am not sure how sharing the seven dwarf names helps us

Then why did she share initially?

Share my name? Because I don't think we should exile protective folks.

So, I’m doctoring folks that I think might be scum so that if they get hurt, that helps us.

[infangthief]

Posting. Don’t prod me. Will catch up tonight.

Prod request: Galzria
Nearly 48 hours since that post and getting on for 4 IRL days since anything meaningful.
Would be good to have your views on what's going on during the day, rather than just showing up for deadline.

[infangthief]

So we either have 3 non-scum in the fortress, or we have 3 scum in there (and the "protection" from fortress is Didds knowing who to doctor since Swowl would likely tell in Snow White QT who he's targeting with sword scum-Galz gave him). I'm trying to come up with a way to figure out which.

The possibility you're missing here is that Didds could be scum without Bright/Galz, if Didds protected Bright.

[scolapasta]

I did not realize that the deadline is today and in just 2.5 hours.

Anyone willing to do a current vote count?

[infangthief]

I did not realize that the deadline is today and in just 2.5 hours.

Anyone willing to do a current vote count?

I'm fairly sure the deadline is tomorrow, in 24+2.5hrs. Joth originally said Sunday, then said Monday. Should probably check whether either of those had PINLs I suppose...

[scolapasta]

Ah, right. I went back and looked and the start of day post says sunday, but later there is a clarification fro Monday. though as you say no PINL.

joth, when is end of day?

If Monday, then I can give Didds a little more time to return from camping.

[infangthief]

By my reckoning, vote count is:

Didds (3): Galzria, infangthief, Awaclus
infangthief (2): Swowl, Didds

not voting: mathdude, scolapasta, Brightgalrs

5 to exile, or 4 for Galzria (hated).

[Awaclus]

If deadline is today, we really should exile Didds, camping or not.

[Awaclus]

No wait, if deadline is today, we just passed it with no exile. Oh well, hopefully it's not today.