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[WestCoastDidds]

Hi friends! I have done life stuff going on this weekend. Our kid was in the hospital so we had to fly to ATL yesterday. She’s fine now, but we need to get her back to her dorm, etc.  I’ll be able to check in, but I’m not terribly aware.

[mathdude]

Ok, it seems to be a very quiet D2 going on here, 65 hours in (just over 2.5 days).  I understand RL happens, but we at least need some stuff to work with, and I know I'm also guilty for not posting much.  Time for a D2 math-post-count - in order of the votes listed in Vote Count 1.6 (for lack of a better order):

(Post counts are done manually - I've tried to be accurate, but my apologies for any errors)
Swowl: 10 posts
mathdude: 4 posts
WestCoastDidds: 4 posts
scolapasta: 5 posts
Galzria: 7 posts
Awaclus: 8 posts
pubby: 7 posts
faust: 9 posts
Brightgalrs: 6 posts
infangthief: 16 posts

So, it actually seemed like there was less content than that.  But I guess there has been the Norse message, Bright calling out pubby, discussions about QTs (and an eventual confirmation/proof), brief pubby/Galz interaction, fang/faust voting, some weird Awaclus vote and discussion about his role possibly leading to pubby being Hated, and now a bunch of questions from fang... plus a gap of over 36 hours since the last official vote count, even though one was specifically requested by Awaclus over 25 hours ago.

However, there are a lot of cases where people post multiple posts in a row.  If each such instance was treated as a single post, rather than a string of 2 (or 3 or even 4) posts, here would be the vote count:

Swowl: 7 posts
mathdude: 4 posts
WestCoastDidds: 4 posts
scolapasta: 5 posts
Galzria: 5 posts
Awaclus: 6 posts
pubby: 5 posts
faust: 7 posts
Brightgalrs: 5 posts
infangthief: 8 posts

There we go... 4-8 "posts" for each of us in the last 2.5 days.  That's pretty sad, given how much there was on D1.  And it's not like the active players are gone - Jimmmmm and EFHW hadn't posted much.

[mathdude]

I guess there has been the Norse message, Bright calling out pubby, discussions about QTs (and an eventual confirmation/proof), brief pubby/Galz interaction, fang/faust voting, some weird Awaclus vote and discussion about his role possibly leading to pubby being Hated, and now a bunch of questions from fang... plus a gap of over 36 hours since the last official vote count, even though one was specifically requested by Awaclus over 25 hours ago.

What do we actually have to work with?

I guess we have to decide who we agree with - Bright or pubby.  With what Bright said, I know personally I'd be much more likely to do that as Town than Scum - raising a suspicion publicly is a townie thing to do, whereas bringing out a false-read as publicly as that when not under fire seems unlikely.  Also, pubby going after Galz shortly after, trying to deflect attention, seems scummy.

Next, there's faust and fang both sticking with scum-reading Didds and Galz.  And pubby seems to support it.  To me, it looks like that means they're working together.  However, I doubt all 3 of them are scum, as it would be too obvious to all be working together like that (although, there is WIFOM).

And finally, I'd like to see some more discussion about Awaclus' role - I know it's BM, but does (supposedly) unknown ability to turn someone Hated seem helpful?  What other part of the role is there?  And I believe he was the one who hammered Jimmmmm too.

[Awaclus]

And finally, I'd like to see some more discussion about Awaclus' role - I know it's BM, but does (supposedly) unknown ability to turn someone Hated seem helpful?  What other part of the role is there?

If I have an ability that turns someone hated, that is absolutely helpful because it means I effectively get 2 votes, which means that town still controls the simple majority of the vote in a situation that would otherwise be even (and therefore a win for scum). The problem is that it's possible it wasn't my ability that did this, and the bigger problem is that even if it was my ability, it's possible it does different things on different nights.

As far as I'm concerned, pubby can reveal the other part of the role if he wants.

And I believe he was the one who hammered Jimmmmm too.

I had no choice but to hammer himmmmm because we were about to hit the deadline, nobody on the Jimmmmm wagon showed any signs of being interested in moving over to Didds to get an exile through, and it didn't look like anyone else was concerned about the fact that we were about to hit the deadline.

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 2.2



Galzria (2): infangthief, faust
pubby(1): Brightgalrs
Awaclus (1): Swowl

Not voting: mathdude, WestCoastDidds, scolapasta, Galzria, Awaclus, pubby
Not playing: MiX, jotheonah, Ozle, Diddzria,

Jimmmmm has been prodded. Got em!

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 2 ends Monday at 5 pm forum time.

[Awaclus]

Not playing: MiX, jotheonah, Ozle, Diddzria,

Cool.

Vote: pubby

[mathdude]

Vote:

I'm confused by this. Can you not vote? Not vote publicly?

I'm voting for the person who voted for EFHW.

This is funny. I wonder if it will work.

So, looks like it didn't work?

[Awaclus]

Vote:

I'm confused by this. Can you not vote? Not vote publicly?

I'm voting for the person who voted for EFHW.

This is funny. I wonder if it will work.

So, looks like it didn't work?

Yes, for some values of work. I did manage to get it confirmed that  isn't playing the game.

[pubby]

Awlaclus's ability made him become my secret admirer, giving us a tempory QT for today and tonight only.

The first thing he's said in the QT was asking if I was scum, which I found to be odd because a townie could ask the same thing publicly. So that's why I suspected he was 3rd party.

[infangthief]

There we go... 4-8 "posts" for each of us in the last 2.5 days.  That's pretty sad, given how much there was on D1.  And it's not like the active players are gone - Jimmmmm and EFHW hadn't posted much.

Indeed. The EFHW night kill seems odd. Like, odd to the extent that I wonder if the bad dwarves' target got altered in some way.

[infangthief]

Awlaclus's ability made him become my secret admirer, giving us a tempory QT for today and tonight only.

The first thing he's said in the QT was asking if I was scum, which I found to be odd because a townie could ask the same thing publicly. So that's why I suspected he was 3rd party.

And what was your answer?

Neighbourhoods and QT's all over the place! I guess dwarves are a sociable bunch.

[Brightgalrs]

Galzria and Didds are both people pubby said (in the QT) he suspected as being scum. Awaclus was on that list too. Since I'm pretty sure pubby was trying to manipulate me, I've basically done the opposite of what he wants.

So pubby shared his scum reads with you in the neighbourhood. Did you share your scum reads with him too?

Yeah sorta, with the whole day chat/night chat thing with Didds yesterday. I laid that out in the QT before posting here.

[Galzria]

Alright. Well. I’ll get to some VCA stuff tonight when I get home.

Update for the thread - I asked the people in Bright’s QT to prod me last night to see if that would cause an extra vote on me the same way it did for EFHW yesterday but nobody apparently wanted to (or didn’t check in before Joth posted his daily VC).

[Jimmmmm]

wut

[scolapasta]

Since my role is usually to come with crazy scum themes, is it possible Bright and pubby are BOTH scum?

[scolapasta]

Since my role is usually to come up with crazy scum theories, is it possible Bright and pubby are BOTH scum?

EBWOP

[mathdude]

The Rules:

The Standard Rules:

10. Dead players may not post in thread or QT, except in their Role QT. An exiled player is not "dead" until a flip has been provided.

wut

Wait, so Jimmmmm is still alive?

Since my role is usually to come up with crazy scum theories, is it possible Bright and pubby are BOTH scum?

EBWOP

The thought has crossed my mind as well.  And I'm glad this is your usual "role" in the game, because I tend to think the same thing - trying to work out every possible angle, but I figured if one of the new guys came posting such, it would likely come across scummy rather than just part of my analysis/post style.

Anyway, yes, it's crossed my mind.  I think it's possible - and it would be very clever to put distance between fellow scum-buddies.  However, I don't think it's likely, as there seemed to be no reason to instigate such a "problem" here.  By doing this, it likely gets one exiled, and the other gets town-cred.  But trying to ride the day without getting one of your own exiled seems much more likely unless one starts coming under fire for something else first. 

Four scenarios:
1) Bright is scum, pubby is not - I think this is possible.
2) pubby is scum, Bright is not - I think this is likely.
3) They are both scum - I think this is possible, but not likely.
4) Neither is scum - also possible.

I'm inclined to say the best strategy is to pick of them to exile today.  If it's scenario 1, 2, or 3, we could hit scum tonight.  If 1 or 2, and we get lucky or a good read, I think this is best case.  We move on tomorrow based on where else things lead.  If it's 1 or 2 and we pick wrong today, then we hope for a Vig kill tonight or we exile the other tomorrow.  If it's 3 and we move elsewhere tomorrow, there's still a chance we could realize this before the game ends.  But this is why it could have been a good power move by them to plan for longevity in the game for one of them.  If it's 4, then we could be in trouble, especially if we spend 2 kills on them.

After working through this logic, I'm going to throw out my vote today and see what other discussion ensues.

Vote: pubby

[pubby]

vote: Awaclus

[faust]

I've been sort of absent, sorry! Things have been busy. Will try to do something now.

[faust]

Since my role is usually to come with crazy scum themes, is it possible Bright and pubby are BOTH scum?

Uhhh your role is to play the Imperial March?

[faust]

Anyway, yes, it's crossed my mind.  I think it's possible - and it would be very clever to put distance between fellow scum-buddies.  However, I don't think it's likely, as there seemed to be no reason to instigate such a "problem" here.  By doing this, it likely gets one exiled, and the other gets town-cred.  But trying to ride the day without getting one of your own exiled seems much more likely unless one starts coming under fire for something else first. 

Four scenarios:
1) Bright is scum, pubby is not - I think this is possible.
2) pubby is scum, Bright is not - I think this is likely.
3) They are both scum - I think this is possible, but not likely.
4) Neither is scum - also possible.

I'm inclined to say the best strategy is to pick of them to exile today.  If it's scenario 1, 2, or 3, we could hit scum tonight.  If 1 or 2, and we get lucky or a good read, I think this is best case.  We move on tomorrow based on where else things lead.  If it's 1 or 2 and we pick wrong today, then we hope for a Vig kill tonight or we exile the other tomorrow.  If it's 3 and we move elsewhere tomorrow, there's still a chance we could realize this before the game ends.  But this is why it could have been a good power move by them to plan for longevity in the game for one of them.  If it's 4, then we could be in trouble, especially if we spend 2 kills on them.

After working through this logic, I'm going to throw out my vote today and see what other discussion ensues.

Vote: pubby

How is this even logic? All you have done here, as far as I can see, is started with the assumption of "pubby is likely scum" and ended with the conclusion that pubby is likely scum. Everything between that is just a big blob of nothing.

[faust]

Okay, it seems that we need to deal with the whole pubby/Brightgalrs saga. It kind of annoys me, but I'll try to reread to see what is going on there.

The seeds, it seems, are laid at #304 - pubby claims to be in a neighborhood with Daychat only. This seems pretty much unprompted. At this time Didds had claimed that the 7 dwarfs neighborhood was open at all times.
pubby's claim is ignored initially.
pubby, having been largely in a jokey mood before, get more into it in #388, explaining his scumread on Didds. Then reminds everyone of the Neighborhood claim in #401. Brightgalrs did not post in between from what i can see.
Then, in +405, Brightgalrs replies and uses the (supposed) fact that the Neighborhoods have different times of being open as evidence against Didds. This does not make much sense to begin with, even less with what we learn after.
It#s worthwile to note that at #414, Galzria suggests that the evidence could be used against pubby just as well as against Didds. This is an interesting point, considering that Brightgalrs switched from pubby to Didds.
At #420, pubby explains his theory that the 7 dwarfs Neighbohood is actually the scum QT. This is a pretty ridiculous theory, but it's out there enough that i feel scum wouldn't come up with it. he also proceeds to call the scumteam.
ladida, we go on to exile Jimmmmm. yay.
At the start of D2, Brightgalrs suddenly comes in with suspicion on pubby. This is probably worth quoting so here:

I'm pretty sure pubby is scum.

Our neighborhood actually does have night chat, it was originally a mistake I made, but pubby obviously went with it. But here's the thing, after learning that it was a mistake, basically during yesterday's twilight, he says in the QT, paraphrasing, that it's a good thing if scum thinks our neighborhood only has day chat, because it makes us less threatening. It's such a stupid argument, I have to conclude he was trying to convince me of that so it wouldn't look strange when he avoids admitting the error.

He also suggested that we expand the neighborhood by adding faust. This points to faust being scum as well (with pubby suggesting we invite them so no one else can read the QT which is pretty incriminating).

His roleclaim (which he claimed in QT) is also not what I would expect from pubby and was pretty vague.

The whole pubby being "hated" thing has nothing to do with this, but is pretty convenient.

As for my role, I started in a neighborhood with no one in it and a cap at 2. Then each night I can choose to expand the cap by 2 or not. I (and anyone in the neighborhood) invites people during the day. You can either accept or reject the invite. And being in the neighborhood has some benefit which hasn't exactly been figured out yet.

The neighborhood has two more spots so I've invited Galzria and WestCoastDidds to confirm all this. Sorry, but I have to act fast since pubby himself can invite anyone he chooses, and as I said, there's limited spots.

So the reason pubby is scum is... Brightgalrs did not like an argument pubby did. Plus apparently some claim-related things that we're supposed to take on good faith. No thanks.

pubby then comes up with a convoluted way for Didds to prove she has Dachat to disprove his own convoluted theory. This at least looks like genuine information-gathering there, and if he really believed what he claimed is the right way to go about things.

All in all... there is a whole lot of nothing here. pubby is town unless Birghtgalrs (or others who now have access to the QT I guess) wants to share details about what makes his claim unbelievable.

[faust]

I've got to Vote: mathdude now.

[faust]

The first thing he's said in the QT was asking if I was scum

I would have been shocked to hear anything else. This is 100% Awaclus meta.

[faust]

We also still have no confirmation about the loved/hated thing; it may well be that pubby is hated due to scum actions, which means scum wants him dead.