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[SpaceAnemone]

I like this, though we should consider whether it's better information if we ask whether there's an even number of cylon-aligned players in a given group (where zero counts as even), rather than just if there's one or more. If we make the group contain the top three or four universally-agreed (ish) scumreads, that might be quite useful information as the game gets smaller. PoE for town in that group would also be useful, which is why I'm erring on thinking the group might be better off being a little more than just the top one or two scumreads. Does anyone else have thoughts on that?

Even seems counterproductive for using information to guide our actions: If we learn a "yes" on even, do we exile in that group? Chances are there's no scum, but there could be two...it just makes things complicated. And given my result, I think if we crossreference 2 groups of people that can have scum, we get a pretty good pool to exile in.

I think key is to use our information-gathering as wisely as possible while not trusting any one result, since most of us don't know whether your result or Dylan's can be trusted unless we see a town flip from you. Also, while the parity idea may not work ideally for a single day, I think it's better information for later in the game than the "at least one in X" information, especially if the group we're proposing to select includes scumreads several scumreads, and we have an okay prior belief that the number of cylon-aligned players overall is probably 2-3.

For instance, say we suggest the 5 scummiest people out of the 11 currently alive for the "is there an even number in X" question, and we get a no, it's most likely that there are 2 scum to find there, rather than zero or four. Similarly, if we get an odd number, we think there's probably just one, but with an option to revise the estimate later on, by which time if there really were three scum there, they've had to play a super-tight game full of extra constraints to try to stay hidden in a shrinking barrel of possibilities and not get exiled for fear of outing the existence of the last one.

One possible interesting idea would be to do something deliberate with the overlap between the tested set and the set from the Jack wagon. I'm not quite sure what, but the obvious options are either have them all in, all out, or split the group cleanly in two. I feel like there's an information-theory entropy question somewhere here. Anyone else feeling like that? I can't remember whether there are any other maths/information types around in this game, though the usual suspects of Calamitas, faust and gkrieg are sadly absent from the player side of the list!

[Jack Rudd]

I've got a rather uninteresting self-protective power. Maybe all the alcohol in my bloodstream serves to preserve me, or something.

[MiX]

One possible interesting idea would be to do something deliberate with the overlap between the tested set and the set from the Jack wagon. I'm not quite sure what, but the obvious options are either have them all in, all out, or split the group cleanly in two. I feel like there's an information-theory entropy question somewhere here. Anyone else feeling like that? I can't remember whether there are any other maths/information types around in this game, though the usual suspects of Calamitas, faust and gkrieg are sadly absent from the player side of the list!

I'm afraid I think you're stuck with me as the maths guy (math dude, if you will). Information is great, but I approach the game from a more snowball approach: if we get 1 scum flip, the game should open up much more than the extra information a more detailed question gives. And I also think having information that we can act on (I don't know if there's a better term for this).

If there's 3 scum in the "odd scum" group, I think they just win: we exile in that group, they redirect the exile to the scummiest of them, they flip scum, the other 2 are basically shielded for a while, and then they can exile town until it's too late. And if there's 2 (and we get a result of no, which means there's an even amount) we just kinda do the same thing: we go around on the other group trying to find the 1 scum, and when we do we might not stop, then the other 2 scum win. Yes, it's much better information in XiLo, and when there's only 1 scum alive, but getting there seems like the hard part.

This is why I didn't really suggest groups of 3 for "at least 1 scum" questions or why I suggested "at least 2 scum" in groups of 5: splitting town like that, even if it seems useless later on as it's less hard information, it's more directional, and should give us more scum flips. Then interactions and town being able to read correctly should win us the game.

[SpaceAnemone]

I approach the game from a more snowball approach: if we get 1 scum flip, the game should open up much more than the extra information a more detailed question gives. And I also think having information that we can act on (I don't know if there's a better term for this).

That depends on the scum that flips, and the interactions they've had. I think flipping Jack at this point is no big worry for hypothetical!scum!Jack's scumbuddies, but if ADK flips cylon-aligned then people who've been following and protecting them look quite suspicious.

I think what you're saying is you'd rather have a small amount of definite information that you can condition other hypotheses on, instead of having more information that you can't use without having to consider a wide range of different but possibly-correlated variables (who to trust, who trusts whom, where different bits of data come from, how they interrelate etc). I lean towards the latter, because in a tough situation, having more information might be the difference between willing and losing, even if it means suffering some more uncertainty in the short term.

If there's 3 scum in the "odd scum" group, I think they just win: we exile in that group, they redirect the exile to the scummiest of them, they flip scum, the other 2 are basically shielded for a while, and then they can exile town until it's too late.

This is only true if we take Dylan's information absolutely at face value. The only reason I can think of for you to trust it implicitly is that you're scum and you know that Dylan is townie, but given that we have a pretty good idea that there is at least one 3p player out there, I don't think even cylon-aligned!you should be trusting not-cylon-aligned players enough to let them totally dictate your behaviour, so I don't really know what's going on there.. it presumably can't actually be the scum-tell it looks like!

Anyway, no, if we get and odd result and there are three on-wagon, I would suggest that continue to play a normal Mafia game, exiling people we have scummy evidence on, or people who fit other suspicions (like your one-cylon-aligned-player-on-the-Jack-wagon thing) etc because we can't let one not-necessarily-trustworthy person dictate our votes.

If there is an odd-number answer and it turns out that there were three scum in the pool, it's possible they can't really afford to nk from inside the pool for fear of making it smaller, which is one reason I'm leaning towards the idea that it should be biggish. If town finds someone in the pool too scummy, we assume it's possible we're in the three-scum state, by which time scum may be some very big scummy fish in a very tiny pond that makes them super-easy for us to pick off. That puts a constraint on scum to have to try to be super-townie, possibly playing and voting against their own interests because the cost of not staying hidden is so high for them all of a sudden, which is something I think town can benefit from.

[SpaceAnemone]

One last post before sleep: I'm Felix Gaeta.

Are Scola and Dylan now the only people not to have claimed, or at least strongly implied, a particular character?

[MiX]

One last post before sleep: I'm Felix Gaeta.

Are Scola and Dylan now the only people not to have claimed, or at least strongly implied, a particular character?

Didn't scola claim Adama?

[LaLight]

vote: EFHW based on a claim

[scolapasta]

One last post before sleep: I'm Felix Gaeta.

Are Scola and Dylan now the only people not to have claimed, or at least strongly implied, a particular character?

Aha! Gaeta was the other military I was expecting.

[scolapasta]

One last post before sleep: I'm Felix Gaeta.

Are Scola and Dylan now the only people not to have claimed, or at least strongly implied, a particular character?

Yeah, I claimed back on D2 when we were trying to figure out the cause of the LL-me neighborhood.

Please have more respect from your Commander, Lieutenant Junior Grade.

[EFHW]

While it does seem early for massclaiming, the game needs jump-starting so I am in favor.

Claim then! What are you waiting for?

Usually we set an order. But I'm fine with claiming. I'm Dee and I set up the QT's between LL and scola and Space and Swowl. I also have the two-shot option to make a player unable to post in their QT's for a night and a day.

...Who? Can you give me a full name?

There's been 3 night, why have you setup only 2 QTs?

I have to put the order in during the day  and Day 2 I missed deadline bc of the other game.

[EFHW]

While it does seem early for massclaiming, the game needs jump-starting so I am in favor.

Claim then! What are you waiting for?

Usually we set an order. But I'm fine with claiming. I'm Dee and I set up the QT's between LL and scola and Space and Swowl. I also have the two-shot option to make a player unable to post in their QT's for a night and a day.

Well, your powers do fit your role, as Dee was a communications officer. That said, I could also see these as scum powers, since we know that there's a Viper QT. And if you're going to make up a false claim, Dee is a relatively minor enough character and I think all the other military characters have claimed. So it's "safe".

Yeah when I heard about the viper qt, my role seemed pretty minor.

[EFHW]

I suggest LL/MiX/Didds

[ashersky]

vote: MiX, obviously. Curfew is a gambit

That was not intentional. Turns out trying to make town decide on an order just means they will do nothing.

But hey, it's what ash wanted!

This is true.

[ashersky]

Does anyone have a specifically 1-shot power?  No need to claim what it is, just wondering.

[faust]

Vote Count 4.4

Jack Rudd (1): WestCoastDidds
Robz888 (3): Jack Rudd, A Drowned Kernel, MiX
A Drowned Kernel (1): Robz888
EFHW (1): LaLight

Not Voting (5): EFHW, Dylan32, ashersky, scolapasta, SpaceAnemone

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to exile. Day 4 ends April 21, 2021, 08:30:00 am.

[LaLight]

Does anyone have a specifically 1-shot power?  No need to claim what it is, just wondering.

i had the one that was only useful on N1, to separate myself from you more

[LaLight]

I suggest LL/MiX/Didds

that would be a fun team

[ashersky]

Also, all the Robz unvotes were super super bad.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I have a thing to say but would like dylan's character claim first

[WestCoastDidds]

Does anyone have a specifically 1-shot power?  No need to claim what it is, just wondering.

I do

[EFHW]

I like this, though we should consider whether it's better information if we ask whether there's an even number of cylon-aligned players in a given group (where zero counts as even), rather than just if there's one or more.

I must be missing something. This question seems less useful because we could end up with a "yes" meaning two or none of the group are cylon-aligned.

[scolapasta]

Also, all the Robz unvotes were super super bad.

Why?

That asked my unvote was to not have him at X-1, and since there was a 2nd unvote after, I'm happy to go back to:

Vote: Robz

[scolapasta]

Does anyone have a specifically 1-shot power?  No need to claim what it is, just wondering.

I do

I do as well.

[Dylan32]

I am Tom Zarek. Also, I was out of town this weekend, so I will be catching up and engaging more fully this afternoon!

[Dylan32]

Does anyone have a specifically 1-shot power?  No need to claim what it is, just wondering.

I've already talked about it, but yeah, I get the 1 question.