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[EFHW]

No death means no kill or traitor shot, yes?

I think mafia was off-wagon.

This implies joth and I are partners but now you are saying it could just be one of us. So, who is the scummiest person on wagon?

[ashersky]

No death means no kill or traitor shot, yes?

I think mafia was off-wagon.

Why off wagon?

That's what I would have done.

[ashersky]

No death means no kill or traitor shot, yes?

I think mafia was off-wagon.

This implies joth and I are partners but now you are saying it could just be one of us. So, who is the scummiest person on wagon?

On wagon?  Me, probably.  Of the remaining?  I really don't know.  It was a super towny exile so being on the thing grants bonus points as far as I'm concerned.

[ashersky]

Also, for the record, faust's delayed claim was the absolutely mafia-ist claim of all time.

[ashersky]

I'm fairly certain I will only vote for those two or myself today.

Voting for yourself would be swell.

If I am E-1, I will absolutely, 100%.

[ashersky]

I feel like joth deserves a mafia win.  It's been awhile, no?  (I haven't been around, so I could be completely wrong.)

[jotheonah]

I feel like joth deserves a mafia win.  It's been awhile, no?  (I haven't been around, so I could be completely wrong.)

It has been.

But I’ll take a town win since that’s all that’s on the table for me rn.

[jotheonah]

So the only explanation I can think of for no kill is that mafia recruited the traitor.

This tells us:

A) Either mafia had so far failed to identify or misidentify the traitor, which could be useful to keep in mind during a reread, or they decided to recruit on purpose, which seems unlikely at this stage of the game since they’d be in a much stronger position today had they pulled off a nightkill.

B) The mafia didn’t recruit the traitor from the get-go.

This is MiLo, so I think if we do want to win we need to really step it up today. I’m going to try to squeeze in a real re-read this week.

Also, beware that mafia, who may have daychat, can quickhammer at L-2, so votes are dangerous RN.

[ashersky]

Also, beware that mafia, who may have daychat, can quickhammer at L-2, so votes are dangerous RN.

Note where joth signals his partner about the possibility of coordinating a quickhammer.

[jotheonah]

Also, beware that mafia, who may have daychat, can quickhammer at L-2, so votes are dangerous RN.

Note where joth signals his partner about the possibility of coordinating a quickhammer.

Yes, people who have daychat definitely need to coordinate these things in the public thread.

[EFHW]

No death means no kill or traitor shot, yes?

I think mafia was off-wagon.

This implies joth and I are partners but now you are saying it could just be one of us. So, who is the scummiest person on wagon?

On wagon?  Me, probably.  Of the remaining?  I really don't know.  It was a super towny exile so being on the thing grants bonus points as far as I'm concerned.

This explains our difference of opinion. This exile strikes me as quite scummy, with very little rationale behind it.

[EFHW]

Also, beware that mafia, who may have daychat, can quickhammer at L-2, so votes are dangerous RN.

Note where joth signals his partner about the possibility of coordinating a quickhammer.

Yes, people who have daychat definitely need to coordinate these things in the public thread.

These are potshots at each other, without any real content.

joth - what case can you make for ashersky based on events after your first case on him?

ash - other than OMGUS, what basis do you have for putting shade on joth?

[jotheonah]

The overarching case is that ash is usually a very strong town player. But this game he's been at best unhelpful and at worst actively harmful to town.

Yesterday was one of the most abysmal days of mafia I've ever seen. No one had a clue who scum was and no one was really trying to correct that except maybe Space (part of the reason they continue to be a strong townread).

Also, go re-read the end of the day. Ash was pushing the faust case. Not very hard, but he was pushing for it and he voted for him. And now he comes in and says "omg lulz he was so obviously town". Well then why did you push the wagon so hard?

For the record, he was obviously town. I saw that and what did I do? Tried to prevent his exile and chose not to vote for him. For which Ash now says I'm scummy.

I think ash is scum playing lazily because he thinks he can because, other than MiX getting a good vig shot, town has been so consistently off-base.

We keep letting him off the hook, so he keeps getting bolder. And now he's decided to kick off the last day by pushing a wagon on someone who's basically been universally town-read all game, just to flex.

By the way,

I'm fairly certain I will only vote for those two or myself today.

Voting for yourself would be swell.

If I am E-1, I will absolutely, 100%.

is quite a thing to say at MyLo.

[EFHW]

I'm the one saying faust was obv!town. ashersky said this:

Also, for the record, faust's delayed claim was the absolutely mafia-ist claim of all time.

Does that change anything?

[jotheonah]

On wagon?  Me, probably.  Of the remaining?  I really don't know.  It was a super towny exile so being on the thing grants bonus points as far as I'm concerned.

I guess I misinterpreted this to mean "it was an exile obviously on town" rather than "it was an exile obviously propagated by town".

But if it's the latter, this is a circular argument: The exile was obviously done by town, therefore those who did the exile must be town. Basically tautological.

[EFHW]

So, ash did the counterclaim. That was a risk because he was obviously not the vig, especially given the casual nature of his claim, so he wasn't going to get an exile of MiX out of it. So what was scum!him after? Getting exiled as scum is much worse than getting exiled as VT. In fact, I could see him doing this as VT in order to make the game more fun for him.

[EFHW]

The overarching case is that ash is usually a very strong town player. But this game he's been at best unhelpful and at worst actively harmful to town.

Is he usually a strong town player? He's disruptive, self-votes, and doesn't catch scum any better than the rest of us. He makes the game interesting, but his strong moments are when he is scum.

[jotheonah]

Counterclaim wasn't risky at all because he had a backdoor to get out of it if it wasn't going well.

"Oh I didn't actually claim vig, I just counterclaimed to annoy faust"

[SpaceAnemone]

No death means no kill or traitor shot, yes?

Yeah, it could mean scum are messing with us and doing something unexpected, which is definitely something I'd consider if I felt like I was in a good position as scum. Alternatively, it could be that the remaining scum(s) is/are so low-content they forgot to do a night action, which does happen very occasionally. If the latter is true then it's more likely that there's one than two, since I assume anyone with access to the scum QT could give night actions, so forgetting would be a thing more likely to happen if there's only one legal person.

Anyway, with all this it certainly feels more likely than previously that scum had a traitor in the mix, whereas previously I would have thought that any scumteam going for JOAT would already have thought that recruiting from the start was a good idea. If there were only two mafia to start with, targeting Robz directly on n1 in the hope of hitting mcmc's brother as a traitor seems like a decent play for the scumteam if they didn't have any other suspicions.

Other interesting realisation: scum who seriously thought mathdude was the traitor probably didn't want to vote there, because exiling him would have removed the chance to recruit him. I need to go back and check how much Didds seemed to buy into the line. And yes, before anyone else raises it, I was definitely very reluctant to exile mathdude, though I've already said plenty about how I thought that eod should have been allowed to play out and why. This would mean that either Didds is uniquely mcmc's first original partner (or I am, to her), or the original other partner was on-wagon for mathdude and confident about him not being the traitor, or on-wagon and not caring about the traitor/aiming for townpoints for helping exile an outed traitor. I feel like with those possibilities, I'm still not too sold on scum not having recruited their traitor.

To summarise, we either have a situation where:
A. Scum recruited N0, but then deliberately chose to no-kill (or forgot) last night; or
B. Scum didn't recruit N0, but did pile on the mathdude wagon, so presumably were okay exiling him in spite of all the speculation about him being traitor, and/or Didds was uniquely mcmc's partner.

Either way, something seems to have happened that I don't think of as the most likely way for things to go down, so it's worth re-examining everything.

PPE 10: Sorry, started noting things down at lunchtime and I guess the thread has moved on since!

[jotheonah]

I think we should be seriously considering Didds today. She has really skirted under the radar all game -- hasn't done anything especially scummy, nor anything especially towny.

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 1.7:

mathdude (7): Dylan32, faust, Ashersky, Joth, EFHW, MiX, MCMC
MiX (5): gkrieg, WestCoastDidds, mathdude, SpaceAnenome, Robz888
Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to Exile.
Night 1 starts now and ends Saturday, February 27th at 3:12pm Forum Time.
Night actions are due in 36 hours.


THREAD LOCKED!

Vote Count 2.Final:

gkrieg (5): faust, WestCoastDidds, Joth, EFHW, MiX
faust (1): SpaceAnenome
Not Voting (3): Dylan32, Ashersky, gkrieg

With 9 alive, it took 5 to Exile.
Night 2 starts now and ends in 48 hours. That is Monday, March 8th at 6:30pm Forum Time.
Please submit any Night Actions within 36 hours.

Vote Count 3.Final:

faust (4): Ashersky, Dylan32, SpaceAnenome, WestCoastDidds
Ashersky (2): Joth, faust
WCD (1): EFHW
Not Voting (0):

With 7 alive, it took 4 to Exile.
Night 3 starts now and ends on Wednesday, March 17th at 5:50pm Forum Time. Please submit Night Actions within 36 hours.

Wagon analysis time.

If, as ash suggests, EFHW and I are scum together (i.e. both scum were off-wagon D3), then it must also be the case that all three scum were on-wagon day 1, something that previously people have seemed to think is highly unlikely.

Let's go further and posit that, for all three exiles, scum split their positions. What are the viable teams?

Ash - Dylan no, together every single day
Ash - Joth no, both on-wagon with mcmc day 1
Ash - Space no, both off-wagon day 2 and on-wagon day 3
Ash - EFHW no, both on-wagon with mcmc day 1
Ash - Didds no, both on-wagon day 3
Dylan - Joth no, both on-wagon with mcmc day 1
Dylan - Space no, both off-wagon day 2 and on-wagon day 3
Dylan - EFHW no, both on-wagon with mcmc day 1
Dylan - Didds no, both on-wagon day 3
Joth - Space possible!
Joth - EFHW no, together every single day
Joth - Didds no, both on-wagon day 2
Space - EFHW possible!
Space - Didds no, both off-wagon day 1 and on-wagon day 3

Ok, I was not expecting that to only yield two possible partner pairs. So either scum behaved in an unorthodox way at some point and didn't split on- and off-wagon, OR Space is scum, with either me or EFHW as a partner. Could Space have been fooling us all along?

If anyone has ideas for something more useful to do with wagon analysis, let me know.

[jotheonah]

I will add that, while it's not super compelling to pre-suppose that scum never voted together, it's more compelling to imagine that they didn't vote together at every opportunity, which means that me and EFHW and ash and Dylan are highly unlikely pairs.

[EFHW]

I will add that, while it's not super compelling to pre-suppose that scum never voted together, it's more compelling to imagine that they didn't vote together at every opportunity, which means that me and EFHW and ash and Dylan are highly unlikely pairs.

This is reasonable. I don't put much weight on the first analysis.

[WestCoastDidds]

Joth, If the traitor was recruited last night, then the last baddie didn't know if they were voting with the traitor or not. The traitor might have tried to avoid voting with the baddie, but it would be unidirectional, right?

[jotheonah]

Joth, If the traitor was recruited last night, then the last baddie didn't know if they were voting with the traitor or not. The traitor might have tried to avoid voting with the baddie, but it would be unidirectional, right?

Well, unless scum and traitor had managed to signal each other somehow. But in that case, why would scum have recruited last night? So I think that's a fair assessment.