I wanted to share that the specific part of mathdude's post that triggered my suspicion was what read to me as their assumption they would be alive on Day 2 to partake in activities.
You know who knows they will definitely not die at night?
This was, in retrospect, a bad case. I also think some people noticed it was a sort of bad case at the time. But what's interesting is it's a strategically timed case. Right as the mathdude wagon was sputtering out, ash comes in with something "concrete" to revv it back to life. Case in point, it totally worked on me:
I wanted to share that the specific part of mathdude's post that triggered my suspicion was what read to me as their assumption they would be alive on Day 2 to partake in activities.
You know who knows they will definitely not die at night?
Ok, this I find compelling.
Let's give vote: mathdude a try.
It was a really bad case because there was the possibility of vig, so scum couldn't be sure of surviving the night. I feel like ash has made this argument before.
Reading further on, I can 't shake the feeling that ashersky was very much the driver of the mathdude wagon and that he started driving it in earnest after THE POST, which is also where mathdude PR-slipped.
I'm going with vote: ashersky
It's not the most extensive case, but the content and timing of his posts around the mathdude wagon paint a picture of a strong player pushing a wagon hard but not looking like he was pushing it too hard. And that possible traitor call is just icing (though if Ash flips traitor, well, nothing I saw in the reread rules out gkrieg as partner). There's also this soft defense:
gkrieg's absence is unfortunate, but I do think that makes him more likely to be town. Does mafia!gkrieg know that he can skate by with a no-show Day 1? Yeah, he does. Does he actually do that? I highly doubt it. That's just from my experience though.
I can see a possible partner vibe in this. But how does your case connect to gkrieg otherwise? You didn't mention him until this, but it sounds like you see a connection.
I'm trying to think of the scum narrative for ash's counterclaim. mcmc's death made him desperate? The counterclaim was not at all convincing. He says "I'll bite", as though choosing to claim is disconnected from actually being the role. Then he doesn't want to exile MiX. A true vig would be all over that exile in this situation, and scum!ashersky would try to be convincing.
There isn't much of a town narrative for ash's behavior, either. I'm with joth on exiling liars. Lying is usually a sign of scum. It's super duper anti-town from town.
vote: ashersky