Alright. First off. Permutations from where we're at (Since there seems to be some confusion surrounding this - and what is "best" for us right now):
7 Alive:
- 2 Red
- 1 White
- 3 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
Scenario's 1-9: We exile VT today
Scenario 10: We exile White today
Scenario's 11-17: We exile Red today
Scenario 1:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots VT
-- White Shoots VT
-- Shots do not Cross-Fire, Doc does not proc
-- Day 4: 4 Alive
- 2 Red
- 1 White
- 1 IC Doc
--- Draw/Town Win
*** - This leads to No Exile, White Shoots Red, Red must shoot White (if they shoot ADK then final day is 1 Red, 1 White = Draw). ADK protects White to create a final day of 1:1:1. ADK forces no-exile and scum must shoot each other (If either shoots ADK they reset at best (both shoot ADK), or lose if the other scum shoots them). This means that Red must play WIFOM at night: Wanting to shoot ADK to remove this situation, but must also be worried about White playing defense by also shooting ADK. ***
Scenario 2:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots Town
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots do not Cross-Fire, Doc Procs
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
- 2 Red
- 1 White
- 2 Town (either both VT or {1 VT, 1 IC Doc} depending on Red/White target choices)
--- Exile Red: Draw/Town Win/Red Win/White Win. Exile White: Red Win. Exile Town: Draw/Town Win (ADK)/Red Win (No ADK)
*** This is a weird ExLo where town cannot Exile Town or White. Assuming a Red Exile, it's entirely down to night actions. If Red and White hit each other, Town wins. If Red hits White and White hits Town, Red wins (and vice versa). If Red and White hit separate Town Players, it's a 1v1 Draw. If Red and White hit the same Town Player, the next day is 2v1v1, goes to No-Exile, and essentially repeats. This ultimately ends in a Town Win, as Red must shoot White knowing White will never get exiled , and vice versa. This is true with or without ADK (With ADK, he either always Doctor's the last remaining Town if he knows who they are, and thus it's essentially a 1v1v1, or does nothing if he doesn't and is essentially VT) --- There's an edge case where in ExLo, if we exile the remaining VT and ADK is still alive he can Doctor White while White shoots Red. If Red shoots ADK then it's a 1v1 Draw. If Red Shoots White (Doctored) then it's 1v1v1 again. ***
Scenario 3:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots Town
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots Cross-Fire, Doc Proc doesn't matter
-- Day 4: 6 Alive
- 2 Red
- 1 White
- 2 Town VT
- 1 Doc
--- Undetermined
*** Lots of things can happen from here ***
Scenario 4:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc does not Proc
-- Day 4: 4 Alive
- 2 Red
- 2 Town
--- Red Wins
Scenario 5:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc Procs
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
-- Situation A:
- 2 Red
- 2 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
--- Semi-Traditional Ex-Lo
-- Situation B:
- 2 Red
- 1 White
- 2 Town VT or {1 Town VT, 1 IC Doc}
--- See Second Scenario Above: Exile Red: Draw/Town Win/Red Win/White Win. Exile White: Red Win. Exile Town: Draw/Town Win (ADK)/Red Win (No ADK)
Scenario 6:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots Town
-- White Shoots Red
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc does not Proc
-- Day 4: 4 Alive
- 1 Red
- 1 White
- 2 Town
--- See results from Second Scenario Above assuming Red-Exile: No Exile: Draw/Town Win/Red Win/White Win.
Scenario 7:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots Town
-- White Shoots Red
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc Procs
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
Situation A:
- 1 Red
- 1 White
- 3 Town
--- Undetermined
*** Lots of things can happen from here ***
Situation B:
- 2 Red
- 1 White
- 2 Town (either both VT or {1 VT, 1 IC Doc} depending on Red/White target choices)
--- See Second Scenario Above: Exile Red: Draw/Town Win/Red Win/White Win. Exile White: Red Win. Exile Town: Draw/Town Win (ADK)/Red Win (No ADK)
Scenario 8:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Red
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc does not Proc
-- Day 4: 4 Alive
- 1 Red
- 2 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
--- Traditional Me-Lo.
Scenario 9:
--- Exile VT
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Red
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc Procs
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
Situation A:
- 2 Red
- 2 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
--- Semi-Traditional Ex-Lo
Situation B:
- 1 Red
- 1 White
- 2 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
--- Undetermined
*** Lots of things can happen from here ***
Scenario 10:
--- Exile White:
-- Red Shoots ADK
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
- 2 Red
- 3 Town VT
--- Traditional Ex-Lo
Scenario 11:
--- Exile Red
-- Red Shoots Town
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots do not Cross-Fire, Doc does not Proc
-- Day 4: 4 Alive
- 1 Red
- 1 White
- 2 Town
--- See results from Second Scenario Above assuming Red-Exile: No Exile: Draw/Town Win/Red Win/White Win.
Scenario 12:
--- Exile Red
-- Red Shoots Town
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots do not Cross-Fire, Doc Procs
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
- 1 Red
- 1 White
- 3 Town
--- Undetermined
*** Lots of things can happen from here ***
Scenario 13:
--- Exile Red
-- Red Shoots Town
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots Cross-Fire, Doc Proc doesn't matter
-- Day 4: 6 Alive
- 1 Red
- 1 White
- 3 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
--- Undetermined
*** Lots of things can happen from here ***
Scenario 14:
--- Exile Red
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc does not Proc
-- Day 4: 4 Alive
- 1 Red
- 3 Town
--- Traditional MeLo
**After Red Exile, Scenario can flip Red/White**
Scenario 15:
--- Exile Red
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Town
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc Procs
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
Situation A:
- 1 Red
- 1 White
- 3 Town
--- Undetermined
*** Lots of things can happen from here ***
Situation B:
- 1 Red
- 3 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
--- Undetermined, but good spot for Town
**After Red Exile, Scenario can flip Red/White**
Scenario 16:
--- Exile Red
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Red
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc does not Proc
--- Town Wins
Scenario 17:
--- Exile Red
-- Red Shoots White
-- White Shoots Red
-- Shots can not Cross-Fire, Doc Procs
-- Day 4: 5 Alive
- 1 Red or White
- 3 Town VT
- 1 IC Doc
--- Undetermined, but good spot for Town
********************************************************
Conclusions:
I do not think it's entirely as clear as Shraeye makes it out to be that Exiling Red is strictly better than Exiling White here - but it's pretty damn close. With the exception of Scenario 11, most of the other scenario's are basically either on par (eh, it's weird still with a few multi-faction scenario's) with Scenario 10 or in many cases better than Scenario 10. So we almost certainly want to be hunting for the two Red's and not Mcmc's partner.