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[jotheonah]

Are you voting for me purely for my wagon positions or have you actually found my play scummy?

[A Drowned Kernel]

You are assuming they knew they were on a town wagon, but they would have hoped they were on the opposite scum's wagon.

My point is that if neither of the major wagons include a member of a scum team, then that team isn't to going to particularly care where they are

[EFHW]

You are assuming they knew they were on a town wagon, but they would have hoped they were on the opposite scum's wagon.

My point is that if neither of the major wagons include a member of a scum team, then that team isn't to going to particularly care where they are

Unless they actually think the wagon is on scum.

[EFHW]

Are you voting for me purely for my wagon positions or have you actually found my play scummy?

Right now it's just the VCA. I will reread you.

[EFHW]

Are you voting for me purely for my wagon positions or have you actually found my play scummy?

Right now it's just the VCA. I will reread you.

What I see is that you are more active than usual and much more active than you are as scum. That is in your favor, except WIFOM.

[EFHW]

If joth is town, then (from my perspective) our 3 scum are in {Shraeye, Swowl, MiX, Galzria}. Swowl, MiX and Shraeye were not on either exile wagon. None of them were on the Day 1 wagon. This would be an unusual pattern, though not impossible.

[LaLight]

prod: Shraeye

Done.

[shraeye]

Here, sorry.

Man, this feels like Less Pressure now; we have an IC, I'm looking for two town instead of 3 scum.

Shots from the hip
Swowl's "analysis" against ADK still looks bad, worse because of the doctor claim
Galz said he'd be here all weekend, great!....except no content.  Waiting game = scum game
MIX = still town

[shraeye]

But, if we're searching for mcmc's partner, the best bet is yuma/EFHW.


I'm scanning back to day1, where yuma insta-defended mcmcs when Robz brought up possible weirdness. 
Then around this area where he tried to tie joth/mcmc together.
This was shortly after he agreed with Robz that consolidation was needed, but nobody was on either mcmc or joth.
Flash forward to the next vote count, after which yuma immediately jumps off mcmc.
No real effort behind that vote at all.

Then, recall that Robz was killed first night, after Robz spent a lot of D1 harping on yuma.

Day2 had NO interaction with mcmc (I lied, there is this post).

[shraeye]

In a similar vein, I really can't see joth being mcmc's partner.  If I'm making that reads list, I agonize over where to put my partner, I definitely don't leave them out.

[shraeye]

Actually, I went through some possibilities; unfortunately, I think our best bet is to try to find the hidden team.  It's not ideal, but better than landing in a 2v3 tomorrow.  Used to be LyLo; I played around with words,  "X or L" sounds nice. Classic X or L scenario and we have to win it TWICE.

There is a possibility (2.4% if all is done randomly) that the remaining scum shoot eachother and we instantly win.  But that's obviously a long shot.
A healthy chance ~22% that we still have 4 town tomorrow. (6% with one scum down, 16% no kills)
Equally healthy chance that we end up in MexLo with 1 scum  (replacement for Mylo, don't hate it)
slightly less healthy chance (~18%) that we end up in a 1-1-3 scenario which was too confusing for me to analyze but has got to be better than a 2v3.

Here's the downside though:
Bigger chance (33%) that we end up in a scenario with 1v1v2; must NoEx tomorrow and hope scum hit eachother.  This sounds dismal, but realize this: a team cannot win without hitting the other, so they're really trying for it.  If they both hit the same town, then it just makes it more likely that they'll hit eachother the next night.

[jotheonah]

Ok, well it seems pretty unlikely to me after that post that shraeye is on Team Ice. No reason to do that analysis. On the other hand, if shraeye is mcmc's partner that post makes a lot of sense. I think EFHW is scum, but I'm not particularly sure which team.

[EFHW]

But, if we're searching for mcmc's partner, the best bet is yuma/EFHW.


I'm scanning back to day1, where yuma insta-defended mcmcs when Robz brought up possible weirdness. 
Then around this area where he tried to tie joth/mcmc together.
This was shortly after he agreed with Robz that consolidation was needed, but nobody was on either mcmc or joth.
Flash forward to the next vote count, after which yuma immediately jumps off mcmc.
No real effort behind that vote at all.

Then, recall that Robz was killed first night, after Robz spent a lot of D1 harping on yuma.

Day2 had NO interaction with mcmc (I lied, there is this post).

This is a nice story, but I don't see the resemblance to what actually happened. I see yuma over the course of an hour agreeing about Robz in principle about consolidating but objecting to Robz telling town what to do, defending scola, and finally supporting Swowl's ADK case with a vote (at 311). Before that he was on Robz (at 219). He does do a quick mcmc => joth switch later (365 and 366), promising an explanation. When he comes back, he gives those explanations and switches back to mcmc (at 396). Stays there until voting ADK at 440. Defends scola at 446. Day 2 is mostly about Didds, with some MiX and Shraeye thrown in for awhile.

What I see here is a town player scumhunting. He takes positions with both scum- and town-reads, shifts his votes between a small group of scumreads, and then flames out at feeling misjudged.

vote: Shraeye

[EFHW]

*defends scola at 466.

[shraeye]

But, if we're searching for mcmc's partner, the best bet is yuma/EFHW.


I'm scanning back to day1, where yuma insta-defended mcmcs when Robz brought up possible weirdness. 
Then around this area where he tried to tie joth/mcmc together.
This was shortly after he agreed with Robz that consolidation was needed, but nobody was on either mcmc or joth.
Flash forward to the next vote count, after which yuma immediately jumps off mcmc.
No real effort behind that vote at all.

Then, recall that Robz was killed first night, after Robz spent a lot of D1 harping on yuma.

Day2 had NO interaction with mcmc (I lied, there is this post).

This is a nice story, but I don't see the resemblance to what actually happened. I see yuma over the course of an hour agreeing about Robz in principle about consolidating but objecting to Robz telling town what to do, defending scola, and finally supporting Swowl's ADK case with a vote (at 311). Before that he was on Robz (at 219). He does do a quick mcmc => joth switch later (365 and 366), promising an explanation. When he comes back, he gives those explanations and switches back to mcmc (at 396). Stays there until voting ADK at 440. Defends scola at 446. Day 2 is mostly about Didds, with some MiX and Shraeye thrown in for awhile.

What I see here is a town player scumhunting. He takes positions with both scum- and town-reads, shifts his votes between a small group of scumreads, and then flames out at feeling misjudged.

vote: Shraeye

Even in your story, you're not defending the fact that he made a throwaway vote on mcmc (and if I remember that was AFTER people had been voting mcmc but then left), made NO attempts to bring other people back to mcmc, and then hopped off as soon as a votecount was posted.

That's scummy.

[shraeye]

yuma made it sound like a breakthrough revelation.  Didn't bother too much over teh fact that nobody really guessed at all, gave two standard/lazy explanations (reads lists are scummy, mcmc hedged) without trying AT ALL to convince people these were voteable reasons and that people should agree/follow yuma.

[EFHW]

It's not a throwaway vote since he 1. explained it and 2. returned to it after explaining the joth vote. I'll check the vote count detail at a computer, but I don't remember anything like that. Since when is campaigning against a player required for a vote to not be throwaway?

[EFHW]

The vote count was around 60 posts later, and why shouldn't he consolidate? You voted for ADK shortly thereafter as well, after a brief visit on an e wagon. You didn't make an e case. Was that a throwaway vote?

[shraeye]

e was town. 

We're not sitting here debating who was E's partner.   That is a scumtastic deflection.



Also, while we're stacking up scumtells, nice OMGUS

[EFHW]

Not OMGUS. You posted a distorted case. That's always going to get my vote.

[Galzria]

Weekend, as it usually does, got away from me. I’m iso’ing by player right now. Will post thoughts on each today.

[MiX]

Okay let's put in some effort I don't think shraeye vs EFHW is working.


I think shraeye is trying extra duper hard, which is a red
scum trait at this point.

EFHW has a really good point about joth. It's very likely he's white scum with that...but would white call their team "blue"? That's kinda why I was clearing him.

I think there's white scum between swowl and galz. Maybe EFHW if joth isn't. I don't think the big scumteam busses here.

I guess I need to reread them then.

Also I'm on vacation so I have less time to reread, although the same to post.

[jotheonah]

Oh, oops. I was just thinking "fire and ice = red and blue". You all know what I meant.

[jotheonah]

Okay let's put in some effort I don't think shraeye vs EFHW is working.

Really? It is so clear to me that at least one of them is scum.

[MiX]

Okay let's put in some effort I don't think shraeye vs EFHW is working.

Really? It is so clear to me that at least one of them is scum.

Right. One of them is red scum. But that's not what we want. At least, uh...not anymore? I did some math and the obvious thing is if we exile red scum, then tomorrow is 3v2 XLo, which kinda sucks? We can do much better if we get white instead.

Although you're right in that letting them talk was helpful.